To those wanting a "Top 10" quarterback...

[Harbingers]

Since I typed this all up might as well put it in its own thread.

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So I was a dumb and only 8 teams were outside the top 10 since 1966

1/7 has been inducted into the hall of fame. 3/7 will most likely be inducted(Manning,Manning,Brees). The jury is out on the other 2/7(Flacco & Foles). And the final one who was not inducted was Jim Plunkett.

From 2000 to 2020, 11 super bowls have been won by a round 2+ quarterback. While 10 have been won by a round one. Of those 9, 6 have been won by a top 10 pick. Mahommes, Payton Manning x2, Eli Manning x2 & Trent Dilfer. A round 6 quarterback has won as many super bowls in the the last 20 years as all of the top 10 drafter quarterbacks combined.

More fun facts.

(85%) of Super Bowl winning teams had a top 10 defense (46/54)

One third (33.3%) of all Super Bowl champions fielded the top defense in the league (18/54)

Over half (51.8%) of all Super Bowl winning teams had a top 3 defense (28/54)

(57.4%) of all Super Bowl winning teams had a top 5 defense (31/54)

(10/54) Offenses were outside the top 10 , 6/10 since 2000.

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QB's

15 of the number one picks since 2000 have been QB's. 1 has won a Super Bowl. 19 since 1990. 2 have won super bowls.

36/59(61%) first rounders were top 10 picks. 3/59(.05%) first rounders won super bowls, 2/59(.03%) were top 10 that won super bowls.

Since the 2000 draft a sixth round QB has won twice as many super bowls as first rounders drafted since 2000. 

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Winning formula for Super Bowls: Defense > Offense > A lot of other stuff > top 10 or "Franchise" if you will QB.

Moral of the story have at minimum a top 10 defense. A top 10 offense and when it comes to a franchise quarterback draft smart, NOT EARLY. Cause that quarterback you want in the first round, in the top 10? Has a 99.97% chance in modern football of going their entire career without winning a Super Bowl. And that first rounder? Only marginally better at 99.95%.

Edit: For accuracy all first rounds during All Super Bowl era 18/145 is 99.87% chance to not win a Super Bowl.

[LinvilleGorge]

Take Brady out and recalculate. He's massively skewing the results by himself.

[Harbingers]

7 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Take Brady out and recalculate. He's massively skewing the results by himself.

As favorable as it would be percentage wise for those lobbying for a first round, you can't change history.

Another fun little tidbit. Since 2000 as many undrafted free agents have won super bowls as number one Qb's picked in the 21st century. 

[beo]

Defense and trench play wins championships. Always has.

[kungfoodude]

12 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

Since I typed this all up might as well put it in its own thread.

_____________________________________________________________________

So I was a dumb and only 8 teams were outside the top 10 since 1966

1/7 has been inducted into the hall of fame. 3/7 will most likely be inducted(Manning,Manning,Brees). The jury is out on the other 2/7(Flacco & Foles). And the final one who was not inducted was Jim Plunkett.

From 2000 to 2020, 11 super bowls have been won by a round 2+ quarterback. While 10 have been won by a round one. Of those 9, 6 have been won by a top 10 pick. Mahommes, Payton Manning x2, Eli Manning x2 & Trent Dilfer. A round 6 quarterback has won as many super bowls in the the last 20 years as all of the top 10 drafter quarterbacks combined.

More fun facts.

(85%) of Super Bowl winning teams had a top 10 defense (46/54)

One third (33.3%) of all Super Bowl champions fielded the top defense in the league (18/54)

Over half (51.8%) of all Super Bowl winning teams had a top 3 defense (28/54)

(57.4%) of all Super Bowl winning teams had a top 5 defense (31/54)

(10/54) Offenses were outside the top 10 , 6/10 since 2000.

___

QB's

15 of the number one picks since 2000 have been QB's. 1 has won a Super Bowl. 19 since 1990. 2 have won super bowls.

36/59(61%) first rounders were top 10 picks. 3/59(.05%) first rounders won super bowls, 2/59(.03%) were top 10 that won super bowls.

Since the 2000 draft a sixth round QB has won twice as many super bowls as first rounders drafted since 2000. 

___

Winning formula for Super Bowls: Defense > Offense > A lot of other stuff > top 10 or "Franchise" if you will QB.

Moral of the story have at minimum a top 10 defense. A top 10 offense and when it comes to a franchise quarterback draft smart, NOT EARLY. Cause that quarterback you want in the first round, in the top 10? Has a 99.7% chance in modern football of going their entire career without winning a Super Bowl. And that first rounder? Only marginally better at 99.5%.

We don't have the option to take a QB after the first round. Marty Hurney is drafting them. The first round is our only hope.

[GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER]

so half were won by first round quarterbacks and half won by all other quarterbacks (this number being heavily affected by a very obvious outlier in tom brady)? this is a data point in favor of drafting a qb in the first round. quarterbacks drafted after round one is a much deeper pool to pull from and they’re still splitting super bowls with 1st round quarterbacks.

[Varking]

It’s not just about Super Bowls. It’s about being in the running for playoffs and Super Bowls every year. Outside of Tom Brady it’s mostly been top 3 round QBs in the running for playoffs every year. I don’t want one super bowl run and then we become poo again for 7 years. I want to win consistently. 

[LinvilleGorge]

9 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

As favorable as it would be percentage wise for those lobbying for a first round, you can't change history.

Another fun little tidbit. Since 2000 as many undrafted free agents have won super bowls as number one Qb's picked in the 21st century. 

You can't change history, but one outlier data point can massively skew a data set. It's just not an an accurate way to analyze an overall data set.

[1of10Charnatives]

7 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

You can't change history, but one outlier data point can massively skew a data set. It's just not an an accurate way to analyze an overall data set.

Especially with a sample size less than 30 where any one variable represents 30% of the overall results. (Number of Tom Brady SB wins out of a sample of 20)

[Shotgun]

Zero of those teams won a sb with Teddy so the data is clear!

[Harbingers]

4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

You can't change history, but one outlier data point can massively skew a data set. It's just not an an accurate way to analyze an overall data set.

Removing data from a set leads to a false answer 100/100% of the time.

[philit99]

It is the hot wife syndrome. You want it cause everyone else wants it knowing that life will suck, but at least you can tell your friends look at my hot wife, (while you trying to save every penny before she spends it, finding meals on your own, and doing your own laundry). We think a Heisman QB will win a Super Bowl, it usually creates a divide and we win nothing. I’ll take that top 5 defense every time. It may not be as sexy, but it gets the laundry and the meals done.

[stbugs]

9 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

As favorable as it would be percentage wise for those lobbying for a first round, you can't change history.

Another fun little tidbit. Since 2000 as many undrafted free agents have won super bowls as number one picked in the 21st century. 

Do we really have to do this again? I love the cutoff at 2000 since Aikman and Elway won 5 of the 10 in the 90s and that doesn’t count Young who without the USFL likely goes number 1.

22 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

QB's

15 of the number one picks since 2000 have been QB's. 1 has won a Super Bowl. 19 since 1990. 2 have won super bowls.

36/59(61%) first rounders were top 10 picks. 3/59(.05%) first rounders won super bowls, 2/59(.03%) were top 10 that won super bowls.

Since the 2000 draft a sixth round QB has won twice as many super bowls as first rounders drafted since 2000. 

Again, your numbers have artificial cutoffs. 1990 conveniently cuts of Aikman and his 3 SBs in the 90s and Elways. Your 2000 cutoff conveniently drops off Peyton and leaves in Brady even though their careers basically overlapped.

It also ignores Wentz and Simms as they went 22-5 before getting hurt. Foles and Hostetler took over teams that had an already SB winning team and had an MVP candidate.

I mean arguing not to take QBs early when 10 of 20 2000s SBs were won by first round picks and 6 of 20 were won by Brady is a hysterical argument to make. Heck, Brees was taken 32 which is now a 1st round pick. Throw in the 90s and 16 of 30 were first round picks and that doesn’t include two teams who had first round picks who got hurt after going 22-5.

 

 

[Shotgun]

3 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

Removing data from a set leads to a false answer 100/100% of the time.

What draft position yielded the best panthers qb in franchise history?