The QB mirage of 2020

[Jeremy Igo]

I saw a comment yesterday that I found interesting. How much stock do you put in the performances of college QBs this year? A year in which Covid has diminished greatly the ability of teams to prepare and train their defenses.

 

Take Zach Wilson for example. Look at his completion percentage...

 

So he regressed in 2019 but all of a sudden in 2020 be takes a 13 point jump in completion percentage? How much does the Covid cloud have to do with that?

[mrcompletely11]

I think he was hurt last year.  

[Rags]

Stats alone in general are one of the hardest things to judge QBs on but also

Joe Burrow Jr to Sr season.

I wouldn't read too much into this regarding Wilson alone.

[Popsickle]

23 minutes ago, Jeremy Igo said:

I saw a comment yesterday that I found interesting. How much stock do you put in the performances of college QBs this year? A year in which Covid has diminished greatly the ability of teams to prepare and train their defenses.

 

Take Zach Wilson for example. Look at his completion percentage...

 

So he regressed in 2019 but all of a sudden in 2020 be takes a 13 point jump in completion percentage? How much does the Covid cloud have to do with that?

Well, as we all know, only defenses are affected by COVID, and the issues involving COVID. Therefore, we can rule out the following; maturing as a person and player, another year in the system, the game slowing down for him and anything that really promotes his improvement. 

[raz]

who can know what effect it has had.  then you have to throw in everything popsickle just said.  we do have a lot better situation than what happened in the nba last night with their draft as far as evaluation, that's for sure.

[mrcompletely11]

7 minutes ago, raz said:

who can know what effect it has had.  then you have to throw in everything popsickle just said.  we do have a lot better situation than what happened in the nba last night with their draft as far as evaluation, that's for sure.

off topic but everything I saw/read on the peripheral everyone pretty much laughed at the Hornets pick and said it was just an obvious attempt at trying to sell tickets.   Ball is street ball garbage

[stbugs]

2 minutes ago, raz said:

who can know what effect it has had.  then you have to throw in everything popsickle just said.  we do have a lot better situation than what happened in the nba last night with their draft as far as evaluation, that's for sure.

What was wrong for the NBA evaluation? I don’t know much about non-US basketball but for the college players, they played an entire regular season with no changes. Only the “playoff” part was impacted. In college football, we have teams basically playing in conference only outside of maybe 3 “playoff” games. Teams like Wisconsin and PAC-12 have barely played so what happens if they get shut down. How about guys like Chase and Parsons who didn’t play at all? How do you evaluate Trey Lance’s last year. The NBA’s draft was later than usual but the prospects’ last seasons were pretty much intact to review. Maybe the visits were impacted but football is going to have a much harder time evaluating. NBA scouts got to see 90% of the college season in person and talk to coaches and players. Are pro scouts for the NFL even going to college games right now?

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

What was wrong for the NBA evaluation? I don’t know much about non-US basketball but for the college players, they played an entire regular season with no changes. Only the “playoff” part was impacted. In college football, we have teams basically playing in conference only outside of maybe 3 “playoff” games. Teams like Wisconsin and PAC-12 have barely played so what happens if they get shut down. How about guys like Chase and Parsons who didn’t play at all? How do you evaluate Trey Lance’s last year. The NBA’s draft was later than usual but the prospects’ last seasons were pretty much intact to review. Maybe the visits were impacted but football is going to have a much harder time evaluating. NBA scouts got to see 90% of the college season in person and talk to coaches and players. Are pro scouts for the NFL even going to college games right now?

I imagine the NFL is going to relax the rules of teams meeting with prospects quite a bit.  That way they can really sit down with them, interview, go through tape, work them out etc.  So obviously this is where having a lights out scouting dept works in your favor.  If they get extended time with the qb prospects I will trust Brady and co on who they like. 

[LinvilleGorge]

I don't buy it. Generally in TC and other times when there has been a lack of preparation, defenses will be ahead of offenses for the most part.

[Ricky Spanish]

Dude got hurt his junior year. Multiple times I believe.

He's healthy and comfortable in the system now. 

[1of10Charnatives]

Since the general rule of thumb is that more preparation and practice favors offenses all other things being equal, because the offense has the inherent advantage of knowing what it wants to do on any given play, and more preparation lets them sharpen execution of that; I'm not sure I buy into the notion that less preparation and practice in the offseason owing to Covid equals an advantage to a qb. There's a reason you generally see more effective blitzing and sacks towards the beginning of the season in the NFL, with more cohesive O line play towards the end of the season and into the playoffs. 

Remember all those great playoff teams that get by on mediocre oline play?

Me neither.

[Jeremy Igo]

22 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I don't buy it. Generally in TC and other times when there has been a lack of preparation, defenses will be ahead of offenses for the most part.

Is a good point.

 

This is why I started a discussion and asked a question . 

[Varking]

19 minutes ago, Jeremy Igo said:

Is a good point.

 

This is why I started a discussion and asked a question . 

This is typically true for the NFL. I don’t know for sure if this would be the case in college. It’s always surprising when a guy gets way better one year over another to where they are a completely different player. Was it health? Was it competition? Was it getting a new system or mastering the old system? Is the team older players in college compared to most of their competition? 

Wilson does worry me but Jordan Love made major regressions and a team still look him in the first and a lot of the board was yelling at me that Love was going to be a top 10 pick. 

I would be wary of drafting him in the top 10. If he fell a little bit I’d feel better about it. 

[t96]

54 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I don't buy it. Generally in TC and other times when there has been a lack of preparation, defenses will be ahead of offenses for the most part.

 

31 minutes ago, Jeremy Igo said:

Is a good point.

 

This is why I started a discussion and asked a question . 

 

That definitely hasn't been true this year. May have more to do with rule changes and the way they're calling games (less offensive holding penalties) but offense has been way ahead of defense in the NFL this year.