Prognoses for the Cellar Dwellars: Remaining Schedules

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Obviously things could change, but examining the probabilities of wins and loses based on schedules is something I do when my team has lost 4 games in a row.  Below, since there is no accurate way of determining strength of schedule for week 17, I provide the range in which a team with that record is likely to draft, according to this projection.  It should be noted that the Panthers are predicted to be drafting in the 8-10 range. If the win 3 more games vs. 2, they are predicted to pick in the 13-14 range.  If they win only 1 remaining game (instead of the predicted 2), they fall to the 4-7 range, assuming the rest of the predictions pans out. However, I see Washington and Denver as probable wins.

The team's current record is in parentheses

Here is how I think it looks, predicting the draft sequence in reverse order:

14-16. New England Patriots 7-9 (4-5) Texans, Cardinals, Chargers, Rams, Dolphins, Bills, Jets—I wanted to put them at 8-8 based on reputation, but they are not that good, and where are 4 wins on their remaining schedule? They will beat Houston and the Jets, and the Chargers and Dolphins are possible wins (so I have them splitting), but I see Buffalo, the Rams, and Cardinals beating New England.

14-16. Minnesota Vikings 7-9 (3-5) Bears, Cowboys, Panthers, Jaguars, Bucs, Bears, Saints—The Norsemen have 3 games in which they should be favored to win down the stretch—Cowboys, Panthers, Jags.  I see the Bears (twice) as a split. They are likely to lose vs. New Orleans and Tampa. 7-9 or 6-10, but I think they go 7-9 because they could possibly go on a 4 game run starting this week.

14-16. Detroit Lions  7-9 (4-5)  Panthers, Texans, Bears, Packers, Titans, Bucs, Vikings – I hate predicting Detroit.  They are always up and down.  They have a favorable schedule, however, where they face 3 teams with losing records (Panthers, Texans, Vikings) and I think the Bears are beatable. Green Bay is inconsistent and the Bucs and Titans will be tough.  So I see 3 wins left in their season--Carolina without Bridgewater (assuming), Houston, and Minnesota or the Bears.

13. San Francisco 49ers 6-10 (4-6) Rams, Bills, Washington, Cowboys, Cardinals, Seahawks—The Niners are another difficult team to predict.  However, they play Washington and Dallas in their remaining six games, so I am going to give them those and nothing more.  They will be dogs vs. their division and the Bills.

11.-12. Cincinnati Bengals  5-10-1 (2-6-1) Washington, Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys, Steelers, Texans, Ravens.  The Bengals have a favorable schedule down the stretch with 4 games vs. teams as bad as they are.  I see them beating Washington, Dallas, and Houston, and possibly the Giants.  If the Ravens have a wild card locked up by week 17, you never know about that one.

11-12. Philadelphia Eagles 5-10-1 (3-5-1) Browns, Seahawks, Packers, Saints, Cardinals, Cowboys, Washington— The Eagles are lucky to play in the worst division I have ever seen.  All teams in this division would be struggling to win 3 games if they did not play each other.  I see possible wins vs. the Browns (they are not as good as their record indicates) and I expect them to beat Dallas.  Washington is a coin toss, so I am predicting a win vs. Dallas and a win vs. Washington or Cleveland.  This is their best scenario, fwiw, and 4-11-1 is tempting.

8-10. Los Angeles Chargers 5-11 (2-7) Jets, Bills, Patriots, Falcons, Raiders, Broncos, Chiefs. Probable wins vs. the Jets and Broncos highlight the remaining schedule, with possible wins vs. the Pats and Falcons.  Herbert has been playing fairly well this season considering.  The Chargers have been close in every game they have lost this season vs. some good teams.  They are better than their record, just can’t close.

8-10.Carolina Panthers 5-11 (3-7)  Lions, Vikings, Broncos, Packers, Washington, Saints -- (It should be noted that there are 4 of the next 5 games are winnable, so 7-9 is probably the ceiling with a healthy Bridgewater for all games.  Let's assume that Bridgewater misses the Detroit game and we lose. Of the remaining five games, we should be favored to win vs. Denver and Washington. Minnesota is likely a toss up.  6-10 is a real possibility, but realistically, 5-11 just seems right because I think they will not risk Teddy's knee in a pointless game.  He will want to play vs. the Vikings (revenge game), so I think that is when he returns. 

8-10.  New York Giants 5-11 (3-7) Bengals, Seahawks, Cardinals, Browns, Ravens, Cowboys – The Giants have 2 winnable games remaining on their schedule with Cincinnati and Dallas, and I think they are the better team in both counts. They have been playing fairly well of late, so wins vs. the Bengals and Cowboys are very possible, with a possible upset of Cleveland in play.

4-7 Atlanta Falcons 4-12 (3-6) Saints, Raiders, Saints, Chargers, Bucs, Chiefs, Bucs—The Falcons ended strong last year, but the remaining schedule they face is brutal.  I do not see a W, frankly, but maybe they steal a win from the Raiders or the Saints (if Brees is out).

4-7. Denver Broncos 4-12 (3-6) Dolphins, Saints, Chiefs, Panthers, Bills, Chargers, Raiders – Denver is really not very good. They will find a W at some point in their remaining 7 games, but I am not sure where. 

4-7. Washington 4-12 (2-7) Bengals, Cowboys, Steelers, Forty-Niners, Seahawks, Panthers, Eagles—Washington has a very favorable schedule in the 7 games that remain, facing off against 5 teams with losing records.  I see Washington winning 2 of these five games (Dallas and Philadelphia, and Cincinnati are all potential wins, as are Carolina without Bridgewater and Frisco) and losing the rest. However, remember when Rivera would go on a tear after the Panthers were eliminated?  Count on 4 wins, maybe 5 if Rivera goes on a meaningless, end-of-season tear.

4-7. Dallas Cowboys 4-12 (2-7) Vikings, Washington, Ravens, Bengals, Forty-niners, Eagles, Giants.  The Cowboys are bad, but so are the teams remaining on their schedule, with only 1 team in that group with a winning record (Ravens).  Expect Dallas to find 2-3 wins vs. some very bad teams.  Guessing what bad teams do is a coin toss, so I am guessing Dallas—even with Garrett Gilbert at QB—can win 2 games behind Elliot and some good WRs/OL.

3. Houston Texans  3-13  (2-7)  Patriots, Lions, Colts, Bears, Colts, Bengals, Titans.  There are 2 games remaining that lowly Houston could possibly win—Detroit and the Cincinnati.  However, I do not see them winning one of them, frankly, but I will go with the odds and say they do not get the table run on them. I see potential wins vs. New England and Chicago, but they will be big underdogs. 3-13 is a pretty solid projection.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars 1-15 (1-8) Steelers, Browns, Vikings, Titans, Ravens, Bears, Colts. There are no wins left in that schedule for Jacksonville.  I see potential upsets over the Browns or Vikings, but nothing I would bet on.  They are rather sad, and certain to get Fields or Lawrence. 

1. New York Jets 0-16  (0-9)  Chargers, Dolphins, Raiders, Seahawks, Rams, Browns, Patriots.  The Jets are being beaten by an average of about 16 points a game.  The are losing every game this season.  Period, and will likely do like the Cards did after drafting Rosen, cut their losses and draft Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson.  The top 2 QBs in this draft have been claimed, people.

Just how I see it going down today, 11/16/2020.