If trey lance is there

[CRA]

5 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I'll have to go back and watch some more of his games if I can find them. He didn't look like an NFL QB in that lone game this fall, but everyone has a bad game. Tom Brady sure didn't look like a HOF QB and all-time great this weekend either.

I think he drops.  Not just because he looked bad this year.   I think when you put him in the combine and you start really measuring him next other QBs.  He just doesn't check that many boxes.  Won't be surprised if he ends being the 4th or 5th QB  when all is said and done. 

[saX man]

I keep forgetting about this kid.  I mean, if the scouts like him and we think he's the right QB for the system, sure.  I'm a bit unsure about his stock right now and I won't pretend to really know where he's at from NDSU highlights

If we're picking in the teens and he's there, why not.  His ceiling seems pretty fly.

[AU-panther]

28 minutes ago, CRA said:

If Lance falls to the 2nd round?  Sure. 

Our first pick? Nah, not wasting a great draft pick on a QB w/ one year of small time football under his belt who relied on his legs. 

Relied on his legs?

He had almost 2800 yards passing, 28 passing touchdowns and actually averaged more yards per completion than either Lawrence or Fields.

Does he have the gaudy passing stats of Trevor or Fields?  No, but its a bit unfair to label his as a one dimensional QB.

 

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, CRA said:

I think he drops.  Not just because he looked bad this year.   I think when you put him in the combine and you start really measuring him next other QBs.  He just doesn't check that many boxes.  Won't be surprised if he ends being the 4th or 5th QB  when all is said and done. 

If he doesn't run at the Combine it's the biggest physical red flag ever. The guy ran a confirmed 4.92 in high school. I just don't think his running ability will translate to the NFL at all. For reference, Peyton Manning ran faster than that.

[CRA]

12 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Relied on his legs?

He had almost 2800 yards passing, 28 passing touchdowns and actually averaged more yards per completion than either Lawrence or Fields.

Does he have the gaudy passing stats of Trevor or Fields?  No, but its a bit unfair to label his as a one dimensional QB.

 

Yes, relied on his legs.  He isn't one dimensional.  But he 100% is a dual threat QB.  Which means he does rely on his legs.  He isn't a Trevor Lawrence or Field who CAN run if needed. 

1100 rushing yards and 14 rush TDs.   That is why you know about Trey Lance.  He had that with his passing numbers vs weak competition. 

And Lance isn't exactly Lamar Jackson in terms of being dual threat.   

 

 

[Varking]

2 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Relied on his legs?

He had almost 2800 yards passing, 28 passing touchdowns and actually averaged more yards per completion than either Lawrence or Fields.

Does he have the gaudy passing stats of Trevor or Fields?  No, but its a bit unfair to label his as a one dimensional QB.

 

My concern is that during their national championship game with him their strategy was basically don’t put the ball in the air at all and just run the QB over and over. If you are basically a D2 school and you don’t trust your QB who hasn’t thrown an INT all year to not turn it over during your biggest year that is a red flag for me. That being said, I actually trust our coaching staff for once to develop whoever we draft so I’ll be fine even if I don’t love the pick at first. 

[stirs]

Don't think he fits Bradys offense.  Throws a nice deep ball, but the quick slants all over the field?  Not a ton of film on him doing that.  Not the offense they run there.

He will have to sit a year, no matter where he goes.

I think he goes 15-30 in the draft

[AU-panther]

2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If he doesn't run at the Combine it's the biggest physical red flag ever. The guy ran a confirmed 4.92 in high school. I just don't think his running ability will translate to the NFL at all. For reference, Peyton Manning ran faster than that.

He isn't highly regarded by scouts just because of his running ability.  He had 28td passing with zero ints.  His average completion was actually longer than Fields or Trevor. Scouts like him for what they think he can become as a passer also.

This is where fans get confused about player evaluation at the college level.

Fans rate prospects based on production (yards and TDs), accolades (wins and awards), and measurables (combine-height, weight, speed).

Scouts factor in all of that but they are also looking for traits that translate to the next level.  They wouldn't be that high on him if he didn't' show those traits on tape.

Good example of this, Keyarris Garret.  Had great production (led the NCAA) in receiving yards if I remember correctly, good measurables (tall), probably had a good highlight video on YouTube somewhere.

Fans were excited about him, scouts were not.  He went undrafted and is now playing in the CFL.

Same thing with these QBs, Mac Jones might end up with better stats this year than Lance had last year but that doesn't mean that scouts think he has a better chance of being a quality QB at the next level.

Maybe I'm trying to be positive because honestly I think he is our best chance at a QB if we go that route.  Trevor and Fields are most likely going 1-2.  If Wilson keeps playing like he is I would expect him in the top 6.

We still have games with Lions, Vikings, Denver, and Washington.  We could easily win 2-3 of those.  Of TB, GB, and NO maybe we get lucky and win one, or NO rest is starters last week of the year.   We could easily end up with 6-7 wins which could put us in the that 10-12 range on draft night.

 

 

[stirs]

6-10 record got the 9th and 10th picks in 2020 draft earlier this year.

[LinvilleGorge]

59 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

He isn't highly regarded by scouts just because of his running ability.  He had 28td passing with zero ints.  His average completion was actually longer than Fields or Trevor. Scouts like him for what they think he can become as a passer also.

This is where fans get confused about player evaluation at the college level.

Fans rate prospects based on production (yards and TDs), accolades (wins and awards), and measurables (combine-height, weight, speed).

Scouts factor in all of that but they are also looking for traits that translate to the next level.  They wouldn't be that high on him if he didn't' show those traits on tape.

Good example of this, Keyarris Garret.  Had great production (led the NCAA) in receiving yards if I remember correctly, good measurables (tall), probably had a good highlight video on YouTube somewhere.

Fans were excited about him, scouts were not.  He went undrafted and is now playing in the CFL.

Same thing with these QBs, Mac Jones might end up with better stats this year than Lance had last year but that doesn't mean that scouts think he has a better chance of being a quality QB at the next level.

Maybe I'm trying to be positive because honestly I think he is our best chance at a QB if we go that route.  Trevor and Fields are most likely going 1-2.  If Wilson keeps playing like he is I would expect him in the top 6.

We still have games with Lions, Vikings, Denver, and Washington.  We could easily win 2-3 of those.  Of TB, GB, and NO maybe we get lucky and win one, or NO rest is starters last week of the year.   We could easily end up with 6-7 wins which could put us in the that 10-12 range on draft night.

 

 

Yeah, I get all that. But the bottom line is that he's probably being looked at as a dual threat QB.

We were excited about Garrett as a UDFA. We all knew be he went undrafted. There's a big difference between the expectations of a UDFA and a potential top 10 pick. If the UDFA simply makes the roster then that's a success.

Just as you're optimistic because of him potentially being our best bet, I'm pessimistic simply because the one game I was able to watch him play he just didn't look like an NFL caliber passer. Maybe he just had a badly off day. That's entirely possibly and given the atmosphere of the pandemic honestly quite likely. I just want to see some of those games from last year. I can't comment on them because I haven't seen any of them.

[My Goodness My Guinness]

Still don't get the Lance hype. No way I'd spend an early 1st round pick on him with the holes that we have in the O-Line and secondary. 

[MHS831]

4 hours ago, AU-panther said:

If we can draft any of the top 4 QBs (Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Wilson)  without having to spend draft capital to move up I think we have to.

This is a really strong QB class (on paper) and there is a very good chance we will be in position to draft one of them.  That doesn't really happen that often.

I am really getting into Wilson.  I think he is the #3 Qb.

This draft is going to be good for QBs.

[mrcompletely11]

5 minutes ago, TikTOK said:

This year’s teams are worse. A 4-12 team could be sitting at the 9th or 10th spot.

doubt it, a bunch of the crappy teams are slated to play each.  Take us for example, we get both minny and the skins

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, I get all that. But the bottom line is that he's probably being looked at as a dual threat QB.

We were excited about Garrett as a UDFA. We all knew be he went undrafted. There's a big difference between the expectations of a UDFA and a potential top 10 pick. If the UDFA simply makes the roster then that's a success.

Just as you're optimistic because of him potentially being our best bet, I'm pessimistic simply because the one game I was able to watch him play he just didn't look like an NFL caliber passer. Maybe he just had a badly off day. That's entirely possibly and given the atmosphere of the pandemic honestly quite likely. I just want to see some of those games from last year. I can't comment on them because I haven't seen any of them.

My point with Garrett was to illustrate there is more to evaluation than just stats or measurables.  Scouts and front office people are looking for abilities that will transition to the next level.  

Like you I haven't been able to see last years games, but I do know two of the prominent national draft "experts",  and I use that term loosely, (McShay and Jeremiah) both were speaking about him being rated close to Fields and that other front office people thought the same, based on last years tape.

With that being said Fields is playing great this year and Lance isnt' playing at all, which very well could be the best thing for us.

Here is an article by Jeremiah:

https://www.nfl.com/news/scouting-trey-lance-north-dakota-state-qb-similar-to-andrew-luckhttps://www.nfl.com/news/scouting-trey-lance-north-dakota-state-qb-similar-to-andrew-luck

There seems to be 4-5 good QB prospects this year, but history tells us that more than half probably won't turn out great.  Sometimes you are better not getting the guy you wanted.