20+ yards air completions

[KSpan]

18 minutes ago, Icege said:

Bruv, we get it, you hate Teddy so much that in a thread about him being tied for top 5 in the league in 20+ yard air completions that you bring up his avg air yds per attempt and YAC (conveniently ignoring that we are talking specifically about deep completions from the QB with the #6 most passing attempts in the league). Since we are discussing pressure on his 20+ air yard completions, we can just take a glance over at the passing charts to see which games Teddy attempted 20+ yard throws (plus whether or not they were completed). Using this, we can hop on over to Game Pass and parse through until we find the plays in question. Below is a summary with passing charts for the games included:

Week 1 (vs LV)

• 2nd & 5 @ CAR 42 (Q1 05:02) - LV sends the blitz, protection does an excellent job and the ball goes just passed Seth Roberts' fingers. Looked like Roberts slowed down crossing the field a little bit, but Teddy still has to make that throw.
• 1st & 10 @ LV 41 (Q2 00:29) - LV just sends the front 4, but the DT beats the RG and starts to pressure inside. As soon as the DT appears in the lane Teddy tries to fit the ball low in a tight window to Robby (incomplete). Even without the pressure, this was going to be a tight window to try and force it in.
• 2nd & 8 @ CAR 25 (Q4 08:41) - TD strike to Robby. Fun fact, Teddy is already throwing the ball as Robby is streaking passed the defender. The ball is already halfway there by the time the DB hits the ground. Teddy puts it on a dime where Robby won't get killed and is able to slip by Abrams for the run after the catch. OL holds up for as long as it needed to.
• 1 for 3 (1 TD) with pressure on 2 attempts

Week 2 (vs TB)

• 2nd & 6 @ CAR 36 (01:21) - Teddy steps back and hits DJ one on one with a beautiful back shoulder. OL holds up.
• 1st & 10 @ CAR 12 (Q4 11:52) - Teddy sees Robby streak by one on one and let's it go again. Robby ends up getting 5yds after the catch for a total of 39yds. Both Paradis and the LG were in Teddy's lap and the pass almost got swatted. Pressure on the completion. 
• 2nd & 3 @ TB 18 (Q4 00:16) - RE immediately collapses the pocket on Teddy who has to swing out to his left while the LE beats his man. Teddy has to throw while running to his left and tries to get it to Robby in the back of the end zone but is incomplete. Pressure was a major factor here.
• 2 for 3 with pressure on 2 attempts

Week 3 (vs LAC)

• 2nd & 6 @ CAR 29 (00:31) - Good protection, 38yd throw to DJ. 
• 1st & 10 @ CAR 25 (04:33) - Good protection, 27yd throw to DJ.
• 2 for 2 with pressure on 0 attempts.

Week 4 (vs ARI)

• 2nd & 10 @ ARZ 35 (Q1 08:46) - Good protection, Teddy tries to get Robby 1v1 and the DB makes a great grab but can only get one foot down. Robby looks like he lost it while trying to track it.
• 2nd & 8 @ CAR 22 (Q2 05:23) - Defensive ends have a meeting in the backfield with Teddy sitting in Lucky Pierre's seat. He gets it out early but still connects with DJ. Pressured.
• 2nd & 8 @ CAR 14 (Q2 13:05) - Paradis & LG get beat bad on a stunt by the right edge rusher. Teddy has to get it out and gets hit as he throws. Ian Thomas looks like he was expected to run a corner route but ran more of an out and wasn't in position to do more than miss it with one hand while Patrick Peterson intercepted it while running OB. Pressured.
• 2nd & 8 @ CAR 28 (Q3 09:05) - ARI sends 5 and Paradis gets destroyed. Teddy has to let it go a little early and just barely overthrows Robby for what would have been a go ahead TD.
• 1 for 4 (1 INT) with pressure on 3 attempts. 

Week 5 (vs ATL)

• 2nd & 11 @ CAR 26 (Q2 13:16) - Good protection, 29yd throw to Robby. 
• 1st & 10 @ ATL 29 (Q2 00:46) - Good protection, Teddy goes for the 1v1 match up with DJ but throws it wide of the endzone.
• 1 for 2 with pressure on 0 attempts.

Week 6 (vs CHI)

• 1st & 10 @ CHI 28 (Q1 09:20) - Looks like Kirkwood was Teddy's 3rd read at the earliest, but he puts it in the back corner which Kirkwood isn't deep enough to get to. Just barely overthrows him, but another play that he needs to make to start putting pause in doubters.
• 2nd & 10 @ CAR 20 (Q3 09:30) - RG gets put into Teddy's face as the ends close in. Teddy has to let it go a little early, but Robby accelerates and lays out for a 39yd gain. Pressured.
• 1st & 10 @ CAR 35 (Q4 09:12) - Gets DJ 1v1 on the outside and hits him for 38yds.
• 2 for 3 with pressure on 0 attempts.

Week 7 (vs NO):

• 3rd & 8 @ CAR 49 (Q1 04:17) - DB comes off the edge untouched and Teddy spins out from the sack. Has to roll left and keeps his eyes downfield to get Curtis who lays out for a beautiful grab in space. Pressured.
• 2nd & 14 @ CAR 26 (Q2 11:06) - LT gets pushed back into Teddy almost immediately, but Teddy steps up and buys DJ a little more time to hit him with a 41yd pass that DJ runs an additional 33yds for a TD. Pressured.
• 2nd & 2 @ CAR 27 (Q3 14:12) - Saints send 5 and the RG gets beat bad, but not as bad as the LT that gets stood up. Can't tell if the end was able to get Teddy's arm here, but he was right there forcing the throw which ended up being an incompletion to Robby. Pressured.
• 2nd & 10 @ CAR 30 (Q3 12:19) - LT gets beat badly, but Teddy just didn't place this one where he should have and truthfully wasn't pressured on the play. Robby had a step on both DBs.
• 2 for 4 (1 TD) with pressure on 3 attempts.

Week 8 (vs ATL)

• 1st & 10 @ ATL 29 (Q2 12:48) - Flea flicker to Curtis. TD.
• 3rd & 4 @ CAR 37 (Q3 05:50) - LG gets beaten immediately off the line. Teddy takes the 1v1 match-up with Samuel overthrows on the hurried throw. Pressured.
• 3rd & 18 @ CAR 24 (Q4 01:47) - Falcons rush 3, giving DJ time to run the double move but Teddy still gets hit as he throws. Connects for 42yds with DJ making the spectacular highlight reel catch. Pressured.
• 3rd & 6 @ ATL 30 (Q4 01:04) - Moton gets beat bad and Teddy has to drift to his left only to have a defender come down the middle and hit him. Pressured, intercepted.
• 2 for 4 (1 TD, 1 INT) with pressure on 3 attempts.

Week 9 (vs KC)

• 1st & 10 @ CAR 42 (Q1 00:15) - Teddy had to drift to his left a little bit, but he wasn't exactly pressured. Great throw and catch, but the Honey Badger played even better defense to break it up.
• 2nd & 10 @ KC 32 (Q2 01:00) - Ian Thomas has a step on the LB who seems like he makes contact before the throw gets there, but the throw was also made while the LT was being knocked into Teddy. Pressured.
• 1st & 10 @ CAR 30 (Q4 14:23) - Clean pocket, not the best throw but an amazing catch by Curtis.
• 2nd & 14 @ KC 46 (Q4 13:20) - Two, count them, two defenders come through the same friggin gap untouched. Teddy has to throw it up and hope for the best.
• 1st & 10 @ KC 31 (Q4 12:41) - 92 is on Teddy's back while he's throwing and Paradis is literally thrown on his ass into Teddy during the throw. Teddy still gets it to CMC.
• 1st & 10 @ KC 48 (Q4 04:25) - LT, once again, gets pushed back into Teddy who has to hurry the throw to Robby. Great throw, better catch by Robby fighting off the defender.
• 3 for 6 with pressure on 4 attempts.

Totals: 16 for 32 with pressure on 17 attempts. On those pressured attempts, Teddy is 9 for 17 (1 TD, 2 INT).

The dude has been pressured on half of his deep passing attempts, and that's not including plays negated by penalties.

You realize I was responding to an incorrect general statement about him being under pressure, right? Quite the effort here.

[Icege]

3 minutes ago, KSpan said:

You realize I was responding to an incorrect general statement about him being under pressure, right? Quite the effort here.

You can attack the effort, but you can't attack the data which refuted your incorrect response. 

[KSpan]

1 minute ago, Icege said:

You can attack the effort, but you can't attack the data which refuted your incorrect general statement. 

It's irrelevant since he has shown for years that he can't/won't do it even without pressure. This year is no different.

[KSpan]

On 10/30/2020 at 11:54 AM, KSpan said:

Article from December 2015, Teddy's second year as a starter:

Bridgewater’s failure to make big plays a concern in Minnesota

6 touchdown passes in 9 games, only 6 completions of 40 or more yards (unclear if that's total yards or air yards, I assume total), talk of weak arm strength... these concerns have been around his entire career. Minnesota had seen enough to know their answer was no.

From 2015. Sounds familiar, eh?

6 minutes ago, Icege said:

You can attack the effort, but you can't attack the data which refuted your incorrect response. 

 

[Icege]

7 minutes ago, KSpan said:

From 2015. Sounds familiar, eh?

https://vikingsterritory.com/2018/analysis/the-teddy-bridgewater-deep-ball-deep-dive

Article from 2018 after 3 years of film.
"So to revisit our initial question: is Bridgewater a bad deep passer? He may struggle with vertical routes at times and he may not have the strongest arm in the league, but after accounting for receiver error, as The Deep Ball Project and Pro Football Focus both found, Teddy Bridgewater comes out as one of the better deep passers in the league."

I wouldn't go so far as to say that last line, but it's been proven on film that the deep ball concerns are overblown.

Once again, y'all can't refute the data proving you wrong on this. 

 

[ChibCU]

14 minutes ago, Icege said:

https://vikingsterritory.com/2018/analysis/the-teddy-bridgewater-deep-ball-deep-dive

Article from 2018 after 3 years of film.
"So to revisit our initial question: is Bridgewater a bad deep passer? He may struggle with vertical routes at times and he may not have the strongest arm in the league, but after accounting for receiver error, as The Deep Ball Project and Pro Football Focus both found, Teddy Bridgewater comes out as one of the better deep passers in the league."

I wouldn't go so far as to say that last line, but it's been proven on film that the deep ball concerns are overblown.

Once again, y'all can't refute the data proving you wrong on this. 

 

If he's not top three deep passing QB in the league, we can't use him! We need the most elite deep passing QB playing behind a leaky O-Line. /s

[KSpan]

1 hour ago, Icege said:

https://vikingsterritory.com/2018/analysis/the-teddy-bridgewater-deep-ball-deep-dive

Article from 2018 after 3 years of film.
"So to revisit our initial question: is Bridgewater a bad deep passer? He may struggle with vertical routes at times and he may not have the strongest arm in the league, but after accounting for receiver error, as The Deep Ball Project and Pro Football Focus both found, Teddy Bridgewater comes out as one of the better deep passers in the league."

I wouldn't go so far as to say that last line, but it's been proven on film that the deep ball concerns are overblown.

Once again, y'all can't refute the data proving you wrong on this. 

 

Argue all you want but he has never done it, and continues not to, while also continuing to not win games when they're in his hands. All signs and actual in-game performance support the 'Teddy is good but very upgradeable' and 'Teddy is a weak deep-ball (like actual deep balls, not 20 yard throws that every NFL QB can make) QB' positions.

[Ricky Spanish]

The most accurate assessment of Teddy was back on page one from PhillyB. The rest of this thread is just talking in circles. 

 

[Mr. Scot]

I remember Leroy Hoard saying that if you needed three and a half yards, he'd get you three and a half yards. And if you needed five yards, he'd get you three and a half yards.

(loved his self awareness)

[kungfoodude]

On 11/9/2020 at 1:25 PM, Ricky Spanish said:

Teddy is OK, but I really don't think he's the long term answer. 

Teddy is:

• 2nd in Comp%
• 25th in TD%
• 15th in INT%
• 7th in 1st Dwns thrown
• 15th in Adjusted Yards/Att
• 23rd in Yards/completion
• 14th in Net yards/Att
• 16th in Adjusted Net Yards/Att

Teddy is accurate but he is also very conservative with the ball. All in all, I'd say he's playing as a middle of the road QB. We can do worse, sure, but we could also do better and if a franchise QB is available whenever we pick in the draft next year, I think it would behoove us to jump on it. 

Basically this. He is a game manager(we all knew this) but he is much more on the elite end of that game manager type than probably most of us expected. 

We can win with him, but the team needs to get better around him. He isn't a "carry us to victory" type QB. But, we all knew this.