Week 2 Panthers Metrics/Ratings

[jtm]

I'm sure our elite defensive coordinator that coached so many incredible defenses in college will get this turned around in no time.  (insert sarcasm)

[kungfoodude]

9 minutes ago, hepcat said:

True. But do I really need to watch the All 22 to know that Tahir Whitehead has been playing terribly?

You need to watch All 22 to know exactly HOW bad he has been. 

[panthers55]

The problem with any of these rating services is that they can only evaluate what happened rather than what was supposed to happen. Without knowing the play or scheme that was called you don't really know the whole story.  For example a safety was supposed to be over the top but isn't so the corner expecting help plays in front of the receiver and then sees no help so he tries to recover and gets burned deep. So who gets the poor grade? The corner or the safety ?  Usually the corner because no one knows that the safety was out of position because they don't know what was supposed to happen.

[kungfoodude]

18 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

The problem with any of these rating services is that they can only evaluate what happened rather than what was supposed to happen. Without knowing the play or scheme that was called you don't really know the whole story.  For example a safety was supposed to be over the top but isn't so the corner expecting help plays in front of the receiver and then sees no help so he tries to recover and gets burned deep. So who gets the poor grade? The corner or the safety ?  Usually the corner because no one knows that the safety was out of position because they don't know what was supposed to happen.

That is also assuming they aren't using people grading that have football knowledge. That's the peek behind the curtain that we don't get. They are majority owned by a former NFL player, so one would assume he would lean on people with real football knowledge, although that is also an assumption. 

 

Edit for those interested:

https://www.pff.com/grades

[panthers55]

31 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

That is also assuming they aren't using people grading that have football knowledge. That's the peek behind the curtain that we don't get. They are majority owned by a former NFL player, so one would assume he would lean on people with real football knowledge, although that is also an assumption. 

 

Edit for those interested:

https://www.pff.com/grades

No that assumes that anyone watching a play doesn't know exactly what was called unless they have some knowledge of the playbook , system , and typical audibles. If you watched the same team every week and had a eidetic memory you can guess what was called but with so many systems and variations knowing football is not enough. Guys like Luke could do a good job because he watched so many hours of situational  film on every team he knew their plays and audibles. But the main purpose of these guys is to grade players not evaluate plays and schemes. So the likelihood is that these guys have familiarity with teams and schemes but since that isn't their main focus it wouldn't be what they concentrate on.

With teams like us with new playcallers it will be even less likely they will have a clear understanding about what every player should be doing on each play and that is what you need to know to truly evaluate performance 

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

No that assumes that anyone watching a play doesn't know exactly what was called unless they have some knowledge of the playbook , system , and typical audibles. If you watched the same team every week and had a eidetic memory you can guess what was called but with so many systems and variations knowing football is not enough. Guys like Luke could do a good job because he watched so many hours of situational  film on every team he knew their plays and audibles. But the main purpose of these guys is to grade players not evaluate plays and schemes. So the likelihood is that these guys have familiarity with teams and schemes but since that isn't their main focus it wouldn't be what they concentrate on.

With teams like us with new playcallers it will be even less likely they will have a clear understanding about what every player should be doing on each play and that is what you need to know to truly evaluate performance 

I think you are likely reading into it too much. It's a subjective grading system with some pretty detailed guidelines. They also allow the analysts the leeway to simple give a neutral grade if the specific play is hard to surmise what the intent was(broken coverages, etc). 

I don't think we are doing anything particularly exotic that would necessitate an in depth dive. It's not like we have something crazy like a Brennan Marion offense. 

[panthers55]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I think you are likely reading into it too much. It's a subjective grading system with some pretty detailed guidelines. They also allow the analysts the leeway to simple give a neutral grade if the specific play is hard to surmise what the intent was(broken coverages, etc). 

I don't think we are doing anything particularly exotic that would necessitate an in depth dive. It's not like we have something crazy like a Brennan Marion offense. 

No but like in the thread with Brown. He is rated poorly because he isn't getting quarterback pressure but if he is getting doubled a lot he won't. And it won't be his ability so much as the role he is playing with the team. Plus it is common knowledge that even big studs like Brown struggle against vets with better techniques for the first season but once his technique improves he is going to be a beast 

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, panthers55 said:

No but like in the thread with Brown. He is rated poorly because he isn't getting quarterback pressure but if he is getting doubled a lot he won't. And it won't be his ability so much as the role he is playing with the team. Plus it is common knowledge that even big studs like Brown struggle against vets with better techniques for the first season but once his technique improves he is going to be a beast 

Yeah but that isn't really a defense of him not making a big impact. Let's be honest, for all the good we've seen, he has a pretty limited pass rush arsenal(something that was a knock coming in) and he has registered 3 tackles(1 TFL). That to go with 1 missed tackle(not good for an interior lineman), 0 QB Hits, 0 Pressures, 0 QB Knockdowns. He really hasn't had much of an impact on the games, so I can understand why he might be graded poorly.

I really don't dispute the grade at the moment. It's just two games in so it really isn't that critical. I don't want to see him be graded as bottom 5 at his position at the end of the year, because as much as we may disagree on the validity of the PFF grading, they usually aren't far enough off the mark for a player that is ranked near the bottom of the league to actually be good. 

He has 14 games to improve and show us he can make an impact. 

[panthers55]

9 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah but that isn't really a defense of him not making a big impact. Let's be honest, for all the good we've seen, he has a pretty limited pass rush arsenal(something that was a knock coming in) and he has registered 3 tackles(1 TFL). That to go with 1 missed tackle(not good for an interior lineman), 0 QB Hits, 0 Pressures, 0 QB Knockdowns. He really hasn't had much of an impact on the games, so I can understand why he might be graded poorly.

I really don't dispute the grade at the moment. It's just two games in so it really isn't that critical. I don't want to see him be graded as bottom 5 at his position at the end of the year, because as much as we may disagree on the validity of the PFF grading, they usually aren't far enough off the mark for a player that is ranked near the bottom of the league to actually be good. 

He has 14 games to improve and show us he can make an impact. 

True. This is the reason I prefer veterans starting over rookies particularly in the first half of the year. Rookies make mistakes and usually get abused by veterans until their technique improves. Brown has always had superior size and strength to rely on so he didn't focus on improving his rush moves. Now with double teams and stout veteran linemen he can't dominate them like in college. He will be a stud but not until he improves his hand, feet, and overall technique. He will just have to learn by getting beat up for awhile. The reps will only help him.

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

True. This is the reason I prefer veterans starting over rookies particularly in the first half of the year. Rookies make mistakes and usually get abused by veterans until their technique improves. Brown has always had superior size and strength to rely on so he didn't focus on improving his rush moves. Now with double teams and stout veteran linemen he can't dominate them like in college. He will be a stud but not until he improves his hand, feet, and overall technique. He will just have to learn by getting beat up for awhile. The reps will only help him.

Yeah, it isn't like the guys we have behind him would be an improvement. Kerr or Roy aren't the future of our team and there is no reason to waste game reps on a rotational guy that might not be better. That's part of what this year was going to be anyway, throwing a bunch of young guys to the wolves and hoping they figured it out. 

[panthers55]

7 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah, it isn't like the guys we have behind him would be an improvement. Kerr or Roy aren't the future of our team and there is no reason to waste game reps on a rotational guy that might not be better. That's part of what this year was going to be anyway, throwing a bunch of young guys to the wolves and hoping they figured it out. 

Exactly. If we were contending it might make a big difference but at this point improvement seems to be the point. I can remember in 2004 we had a bunch of young guys getting lots of starting reps due to all the injuries to starters. I remember players and coaches talking about how much that helped in 2005 as they made a playoff push. Then again Smith won the triple crown in 2005. Moore better be working harder if he is replacing Smith. 

But the parallel is simply that a bunch of young guys getting reps this year because we got no vets could help us greatly in the next year or two where most folks here hope we are a contender once again 

[kungfoodude]

Just now, panthers55 said:

Exactly. If we were contending it might make a big difference but at this point improvement seems to be the point. I can remember in 2004 we had a bunch of young guys getting lots of starting reps due to all the injuries to starters. I remember players and coaches talking about how much that helped in 2005 as they made a playoff push. Then again Smith won the triple crown in 2005. Moore better be working harder if he is replacing Smith. 

But the analogy is simply that a bunch of young guys getting reps this year because we got no vets could help us greatly in the next year or two where most folks here hope we are a contender once again 

I wanted zero part of this sort of rebuilding process but here we are. We may as well stay committed to building on the pieces that we have. Right now the sum of these pitiful parts hasn't been producing terrible results. A little to the left, a little to the right and we could be 2-0. 

Guess we will just have to sit back and see what this all becomes in the next couple of years. 

[panthers55]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

I wanted zero part of this sort of rebuilding process but here we are. We may as well stay committed to building on the pieces that we have. Right now the sum of these pitiful parts hasn't been producing terrible results. A little to the left, a little to the right and we could be 2-0. 

Guess we will just have to sit back and see what this all becomes in the next couple of years. 

I wasn't a big fan of that either. Honestly I would have rolled with Cam and tried to compete with vets. But that is partly selfish on my part. I am getting older and don't want to wait another 10 or 15 years to contend for another Superbowl. I want to be able to jump up and down and hi five not sit in my wheelchair and huff oxygen. It might not be that bad but you get my meaning. LOL

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, panthers55 said:

I wasn't a big fan of that either. Honestly I would have rolled with Cam and tried to compete with vets. But that is partly selfish on my part. I am getting older and don't want to wait another 10 or 15 years to contend for another Superbowl. I want to be able to jump up and down and hi five not sit in my wheelchair and huff oxygen. It might not be that bad but you get my meaning. LOL

What vets?