Prime position for Lawrence

[DJ feed me moore]

7 hours ago, Tepper's Chest Hair said:

The last time a team picked a QB first over all and ended up winning a superbowl with him was what..1989 with Aikman?

 

 

who is peyton fuging manning? 

[Shotgun]

7 hours ago, Tepper's Chest Hair said:

Eli Manning won 0 superbowls with the Chargers.

I forgot about Peyton.

So 2 times in the last 31 years?  I guess thats enough to bank a strat on.

Last playoffs there were what.  2 total QBs drafted in the top 10 there past the wildcard round?

So what pick is the best one to get a qb?  #10 ? # 35? #135? Or are you comparing the #1 pick to every other pick in the entire draft. If so that makes no sense.

[Mother Grabber]

15 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Oh please. For every Carr there's another guy who took a beating for a couple of years and turned out fine. The bottom line is that to land a legit franchise QB you usually have to be in a position to land a top pick and that means having a pretty awful team. Sure, sometimes you can get lucky as hell and land a Brady in the 6th or a Russell in the 3rd, or an Aaron Rodgers in the late 1st but usually getting that elite guy means having a single digit pick.

 

15 hours ago, stbugs said:

I mean it’s idiocy. I actual think these guys believe it. Even Teddy was a first round pick. So was Flacco, so was Dilfer, so was Roethlisberger and Mahomes and a bunch of others. Too many to list. These same people love Cam when he was there but now don’t want a QB at the top of the first.

Here's the list of every QB to play in the last 20 Superbowls, and their draft position.

Patrick Mahomes #10
Jimmy Garoppolo #62
Jared Goff #1
Tom Brady #199
Nick Foles #88
Matt Ryan #3
Peyton Manning #1
Cam Newton #1
Russell Wilson #75
Joe Flacco #18
Colin Kaepernick #36
Eli Manning #1
Aaron Rodgers #24
Ben Roethlisberger #11
Drew Brees #33
Kurt Warner Undrafted
Rex Grossman #22
Matt Hasselbeck #187
Donovan McNabb #2
Jake Delhomme Undrafted
Brad Johnson #227
Rich Gannon #98
Tony Banks #42
Kerry Collins #5

As you can see, Tom Brady being a late round pick is not a unique occurrence. In fact, you have an equal chance to see a "single-digit pick" as you do a bottom 100.

We have 4 #1 picks, 1 #2, 1 #3, and 1#5, for a total of 7 QBs picked in the top 5 to make the last 20 Superbowls, and only 4 more total picked in the rest of the 1st round. On the other side we have 7 players close to pick 100 or higher, with an additional 5 picked outside of the 1st. So, the NEED for a QB in the top of the first is fool's gold. Based on numbers, it's 50-50 as to if your QB is anywhere in the first round vs the rest of the draft, much less the top 5.

My point wasn't that I don't want to draft a franchise QB. If one of the top two falls to us, by all means take him. He's likely BPA. But, we aren't in any rush to pick one of them, and we certainly don't NEED to pick one. We can get one this year, next year, or the year after, whenever the draft lines up right for us. To say we NEED to draft player X or player Y, however, is an opinion based on emotion, not data or facts.

 

[stbugs]

4 minutes ago, Mother Grabber said:

 

Here's the list of every QB to play in the last 20 Superbowls, and their draft position.

Patrick Mahomes #10
Jimmy Garoppolo #62
Jared Goff #1
Tom Brady #199
Nick Foles #88
Matt Ryan #3
Peyton Manning #1
Cam Newton #1
Russell Wilson #75
Joe Flacco #18
Colin Kaepernick #36
Eli Manning #1
Aaron Rodgers #24
Ben Roethlisberger #11
Drew Brees #33
Kurt Warner Undrafted
Rex Grossman #22
Matt Hasselbeck #187
Donovan McNabb #2
Jake Delhomme Undrafted
Brad Johnson #227
Rich Gannon #98
Tony Banks #42
Kerry Collins #5

As you can see, Tom Brady being a late round pick is not a unique occurrence. In fact, you have an equal chance to see a "single-digit pick" as you do a bottom 100.

We have 4 #1 picks, 1 #2, 1 #3, and 1#5, for a total of 7 QBs picked in the top 5 to make the last 20 Superbowls, and only 4 more total picked in the rest of the 1st round. On the other side we have 7 players close to pick 100 or higher, with an additional 5 picked outside of the 1st. So, the NEED for a QB in the top of the first is fool's gold. Based on numbers, it's 50-50 as to if your QB is anywhere in the first round vs the rest of the draft, much less the top 5.

My point wasn't that I don't want to draft a franchise QB. If one of the top two falls to us, by all means take him. He's likely BPA. But, we aren't in any rush to pick one of them, and we certainly don't NEED to pick one. We can get one this year, next year, or the year after, whenever the draft lines up right for us. To say we NEED to draft player X or player Y, however, is an opinion based on emotion, not data or facts.

Again, convenient to drop off the 90s and Aikman and Elway as #1 picks to win 5 SBs. Tom Brady is a unique occurrence, period.

Small nit, Brees was pick 32, normally a 1st round slot, but it was one year before the Texans became a team.

One other caveat that I hate being left out is Carson Wentz. Dude was the leading MVP candidate and got the Eagles to 11-2 and HFA. Foles played well, but revisionist history wants to act like Wentz had nothing to do with that year. If Foles plays the entire year, they don't win the SB.

Tony Banks? You give Nick Foles credit for going 2-1 before the playoffs, but not Trent Dilfer who was the #6 pick and went 7-1? I don't feel like going through everything else, but at least Dilfer played more games than Banks. Wentz played twice as many games as Foles that year.  That's 2 top 6 picks right there you dropped off.

If I look at the QB that had more to do with the team being in the SB, it seems to me that 10 of the 24 slots listed are top 10 picks. How many QBs are drafted/undrafted every year versus top 10 picks? Fool's gold? SMH, we might as well trade all of our 1st round picks since there's examples of later round players doing just as well. I mean do you actually think that a player's draft position doesn't correlate to success in the NFL? There are no guarantees, but your mental gymnastics to try and act like Lawrence, Fields and maybe Lance are not good prospects because Mayfield sucks completely misses that this is a much better top QB set than recent drafts, back to  Cam and Luck. Maybe back to 2004 in terms of multiple QBs having high grades (will be interesting with only 1 of the 3 playing).

I'm not going to convince you and you aren't going to sway me because I'm looking at the prospects this year not just saying pick Sam Darnold because we have to have a top 5 QB.

[Tinamedina]

We lose next 5 games?? Put in Pj Walker. PERIODT.

[Moo Daeng]

16 minutes ago, Tinamedina said:

We lose next 5 games?? Put in Pj Walker. PERIODT.

That would be a most pointless move.

[Tinamedina]

1 minute ago, Moo Daeng said:

That would be a most pointless move.

Why? And try to come up with something other than, "b b but the XFL!!"

[MGH1989]

On 9/15/2020 at 6:08 AM, Mother Grabber said:

i’d much rather spend a few years building a solid team around teddy who did just fine. once there’s a badass team with a couple of years playing together, then we can worry about a new franchise QB. 

A franchise QB is the hardest thing to find in the NFL. If you’re in a position to draft one you don’t pass that up.

[Soul Rebel]

I don't see us being bad enough to get the #1 pick, which is where Lawrence should go (unless Cincy gets 1st OA). I think Fields goes top-5, maybe even top-3, so we'd have to fall in this range or be close enough to move up for Fields. Lance is a very, very competent QB that will make us happy as well at QB and can probably be had in our range without moving up. 

It's all about tiers and when/where to draft these prospects. 

The question, IMO, will come down to whether or not a prospect like Parsons, Surtain II, Wade or Moses is higher on our chart than Lance. 

For me, these are my two tiers and I don't see us picking below 8th OA:

Lawrence

Sewell

Fields

---------------------------------

Chase

Parsons

Surtain II

Moses

Wade

 

Essentially, we will get a franchise-altering player with one of these guys.... take your pick. 

[stbugs]

56 minutes ago, MGH1989 said:

A franchise QB is the hardest thing to find in the NFL. If you’re in a position to draft one you don’t pass that up.

Hallelujah. What I don’t get is why we can spend a few years building a solid team around Teddy but it’s verboten to do the exact same thing around a higher potential QB. Nope, if we take someone like Lawrence or Fields we have to pick bad players and force him to win it himself. SMH, why? Is is not fair to Teddy if we work as hard building a team around a rookie? If there’s a good LT or CB available in 2022, you pick him regardless of QB.

[Basbear]

On 9/15/2020 at 7:43 AM, stbugs said:

C’mon. Lawrence and Fields were the top two HS prospects when they came out. Lawrence has been phenomenal in his true freshman and sophomore years. He’s not even 21 yet. I remember people comparing Burrow to him last year and I mentioned that Burrow was 3 years older. There is no Clemson fans manufactured hype, the media had already mentioned him as the 2021 top pick after his first season. Also, picking Sewell over any of these three if you believe they could be franchise QBs is a terrible pick unless you have yours. Cincinnati, sure. Us, horrible pick. Joe Thomas-esque pick over say Peyton Manning. In a year with no QB, sure, this year, horrible mistake. Something the Browns might do. M

This will be a messy answer- Trey Lance is just preferred over the other 2, all could/should be top 8 picks. Not surprised if they all go 1-2-3. Burrow was a 6th round guy before he had the greatest season in college history, he looked great for the first game too. Carolina panthers have many Clemson and ACC fans, they focus on Lawrence. He plays with the best of best at WR, OL, and coaches. Ive found those guys are the hardest to grade, going 1st overall you will not have the same talent advantage.

Breaking my #1 #2 #3 #5 rule about picking Sewell over those three. Panthers 2021 is looking like they need 5 new starters(provided Paradis is cut, others are FAs). Daley could fill one of those, needs to get healthy and show he can soon. Spending a 1st-8th overall on QB behind that 2021 line would be a total waste. The poor guy would get murder or at best turn into a shell-shocked David Carr. Its harder to find a prime LT than a good QB. You could draft one of the three and sit him for a year or two, but that takes away the best advantage to having a QB on a rookie pay-scale. Sewell on talent/grading alone may be better than the 3 QBs too, hes that special.  2021 panthers OL forced me to make this choice. 

 

[jb2288]

4 minutes ago, Basbear said:

This will be a messy answer- Trey Lance is just preferred over the other 2, all could/should be top 8 picks. Not surprised if they all go 1-2-3. Burrow was a 6th round guy before he had the greatest season in college history, he looked great for the first game too. Carolina panthers have many Clemson and ACC fans, they focus on Lawrence. He plays with the best of best at WR, OL, and coaches. Ive found those guys are the hardest to grade, going 1st overall you will not have the same talent advantage.

Breaking my #1 #2 #3 #5 rule about picking Sewell over those three. Panthers 2021 is looking like they need 5 new starters(provided Paradis is cut, others are FAs). Daley could fill one of those, needs to get healthy and show he can soon. Spending a 1st-8th overall on QB behind that 2021 line would be a total waste. The poor guy would get murder or at best turn into a shell-shocked David Carr. Its harder to find a prime LT than a good QB. You could draft one of the three and sit him for a year or two, but that takes away the best advantage to having a QB on a rookie pay-scale. Sewell on talent/grading alone may be better than the 3 QBs too, hes that special.  2021 panthers OL forced me to make this choice. 

 

I'm sorry man but this is just flat out lunacy. If Trevor is on the board, you draft him. 

[Basbear]

6 minutes ago, jb2288 said:

I'm sorry man but this is just flat out lunacy. If Trevor is on the board, you draft him. 

I know in my post history more than a few times I stated, "QB is by far the most important position in all of sports". Just takes extreme situation to break the golden rule, 2021 OL is just that. Plus it is easier to find a starting level QB than a LT one. Sewell is my pick. 

[mrcompletely11]

8 minutes ago, Basbear said:

I know in my post history more than a few times I stated, "QB is by far the most important position in all of sports". Just takes extreme situation to break the golden rule, 2021 OL is just that. Plus it is easier to find a starting level QB than a LT one. Sewell is my pick. 

This is unbelievably incorrect