The tank, the rebuild, and Short

[AU-panther]

By this point I think we all agree they aren't doing a full blown tank, but there does seem to be a lot of talk about a 5 year rebuild.

Publicly they might be saying 5 years to cover themselves if things go bad, but personally I think they are expecting to be really competitive in the second year and I'll explain why, and KK is part of that reason.

Lets think about what they did this offseason.

Offense:

Here is what was added or we already had, 

QB - Regardless of what the fanbase thinks the coaches are high on him

Three offensive weapons - CMC, Moore, and Anderson

2 Tackles - Moton and Okung

Those positions are a good foundation for any offense.  

Defense

Here is what was added or we already had,

The have KK and Burns, added YGM and Brown.  A lot of football people believe in building the line first.

Safety - FA and high draft pick.  Need safeties to run their system.

Spent the rest of the draft picks also on defense.

I think its by design that we went free agency on offense and draft on defense.  If this is the rebuild year, that gives the rookies a year to get up to speed on defense and on offense that gives the older guys a year to learn the system. I would think offenses have bigger playbooks than defenses and are more dependent on reps and time.

The fact they kept KK tells me they think they can be good next year.  I know its fashionable around here to bash KK but I think the staff thinks higher of him than most fans.  If they thought he was bad they could have released him this year and saved cap space.  Also if it was really a 5 year rebuild you would probably go ahead and release him.  Why would you spend that much cap for him to keep him for 5 years from now?  But, if you think you can compete next year, $12.5m isn't bad for a quality DT.

Speaking of KK, fans tend to get caught up in sacks, which is understandable because most fans just watch the ball when they watch a football game.  KK's sack totals have definitely dipped the past few years but some of his other metrics are still pretty good.  

KK was hurt most of last year.  Here are 2018 pass rush win rates:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25074144/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-stats-final-leaderboard-pass-block-win-rate-pass-rush-win-rate

He was third in the league among DTs, behind Donald and Jones.

The team might not admit it, but I think they are really thinking the can be very competitive next season, not 5 years from now.  As a fan I hope they are right.  

If Teddy doesn't work out, then we are probably drafting in the top 5 and we get a rookie QB and it becomes a three year plan.  

A lot of people have been confused about the moves made by the front office, but when you look at if from a 2 year perspective they make sense.  You aren't going to fix everything in one off season but there is some logic to their order.

I not saying this was the best course of action, but I do think it is the mindset of the team regardless of what us fans think.

 

 

 

 

 

[Montsta]

I don’t think a team ever intentionally goes for a five year rebuild. That is forever in NFL time. 5 years ago we were the best team in football with MVP Cam Newton and now we might win 5 games with Teddy Two Gloves. 

“A Complete Rebuild” in today’s NFL is basically oh poo we lost our QB and need to try and stay afloat til we can get a new one. Which is where we currently sit. We will be trash and may win the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes or get a Justin Fields and be right back in it in two years. We just gotta hope the new regime doesn’t destroy generational talent in meaningless lost seasons like the old one loved doing. Looking at you Washington Football Team Head Coach. 

[jfra78]

The actual letter from David Tepper

I don't see anything about 5 years, where did this even come from?

[1of10Charnatives]

Well thought out and presented OP with a fresh and interesting argument. Five stars. Would read again.

[Adb6368]

With the dead cap we are taking on this year and the state of our division, I don’t see any reason we shouldn’t be competing for a playoff birth next year and a super bowl the following year. 

it shouldn’t take 5 years to rebuild. And it doesn’t take a #1 draft pick. It actually takes a bit of luck and good coaching. 

[mc52beast]

If we win sooner than later it probably means that Hurney stays until eternity... 

[Ready 2 Win]

I think a lot of folks around here that seem intent on shitting on our team are going to get a surprise. We are not as bad as many like to believe. We likely wont win the division but the folks thinking we will be so bad to get a top 5 pick are dreaming.  CMC not laying down like that. Teddy in his debut here not laying down like that. Rhule and Co. in first season are not laying down like that.

[1of10Charnatives]

26 minutes ago, mc52beast said:

If we win sooner than later it probably means that Hurney stays until eternity... 

As much as I am not a fan of Hurney, if we win, who cares? If Rhule can overcome a marginal GM to build a winner fast, then my hat will be off to him. 

[CarolinaNCSU]

The whole five years thing IMO means a SB contender in 5 years, not just a rebuilt team.  This team could easily be rebuilt and in the playoffs in 2-3 years if Teddy is the answer, or we draft a QB who becomes one in 2021. 

If this team isn't in the playoffs in 2-3 years, especially with the incoming shape of our division, then whatever plan we had failed miserably. 

[KillaCamNewton]

13 minutes ago, CarolinaNCSU said:

The whole five years thing IMO means a SB contender in 5 years, not just a rebuilt team.  This team could easily be rebuilt and in the playoffs in 2-3 years if Teddy is the answer, or we draft a QB who becomes one in 2021. 

If this team isn't in the playoffs in 2-3 years, especially with the incoming shape of our division, then whatever plan we had failed miserably. 

Were gonna hate the next 2-3 years but I see it as getting a head start on the division and setting up for the next decade. In 2 years Tom Brady will be 45, Matt Ryan will be 37, and Drew Brees will be 43

 

we arent getting Trevor Lawrence so I think fans just need to get over that. The Tar Heel fan in me really likes Sam Howell and I dont think we will have to have a top 5 pick to get him next year. I see alot of Favre in him

[top dawg]

Underpromise and overdeliver. Talk five years, be legitimately competitive in three!

[1of10Charnatives]

8 minutes ago, KillaCamNewton said:

we arent getting Trevor Lawrence so I think fans just need to get over that. 

I am convinced neither that Trevor Lawrence is the second coming nor that he is overrated. What I am convinced of is that covid makes this season such a crapshoot for the entire league that no team should rule out having a shot at him. At any given moment the roster of any team could be decimated while the rest of the league somehow stays mostly intact. Even the Chiefs season is not assured despite the talent on their roster. Would I bet the farm on getting Lawrence? No. But neither would I categorically rule out the Panthers having the chance to draft him especially with all the negative variables of newness that no meaningful offseason will likely accentuate.

[Moo Daeng]

Where did they mention 5 years? This is the first Ive heard that. I cant find any reference.

Does someone have any insight in that?

[CarolinaNCSU]

I think we only have about a 1% chance at Lawrence.  Fields & Lance are the more obvious options, picking at our spot or trading up, but even they might go too high. 

That said, I think we take a QB in the first this year, either at our own pick or a trade up into the late 1st ala Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Grabbing Penei Sewell to anchor our LT spot for the next 15 years at our own pick, and then getting one of the "project" QBs like Jamie Newman to sit behind Teddy in 2021, could easily see that being the plan.