The problem with signing anyone long term right now.

[1of10Charnatives]

I've seen this come up a couple times in other threads lately so I wanted to create a thread to address what I feel is an overlooked topic. Guys the salary cap is based on total league revenue from the preceeding year. I know all we've ever seen is for it to go up and up and up, and the only question from year to year has been by how much, but does anyone really think that's going to be the case next year? If the NFL is even able to play a full season, something that seems a HUGE assumption atm, it will do so either in empty stadiums or ones with dramatically lower attendance, which will mean not only lower ticket revenue, but little to no concession revenue.

Yes half of the NFL's revenue is from TV deals. It is not a given the league will collect on all this money this year, especially if it is not able to play a full season. But even if it does, this revenue represents still is only half the equation. Ticket sales, concessions and merchandise are almost guaranteed to go down with the economy having it's largest ever single quarter contraction this year. Okay enough gloom and doom, you get the point.

What does this mean when it comes to signing players to contracts? IMO it means any GM who goes about business as usual signing players to long term deals with the default assumption that the cap will only go up and up and up is being foolish. Such a GM may very well find himself forced to cut players next year that were just signed or resigned this year if they didn't plan for the cap to go down next year. Yes salary for a given year can be manipulated over the course of a contract, but players always want as much guaranteed money as possible up front and signing bonuses have to be prorated equally over the life of the deal. To me this means that signing Anyone short of a franchise qb to a long term deal right now is inadvisable. If I were a gm I'd be taking a hard stance of only one year deals for the moment and look at where we're at as a league and a country next year. 

There is no guarantee the economic fallout from covid doesn't affect league revenue long term. Entertainment is traditionally one of the most recession resistant industries, but the NFL is a crazy expensive experience on gameday for anyone not watching on TV and it seems likely a lot of people are going to be hurting for a long time to come. Both players and teams need to avoid thinking in terms of business as usual. 

Not to be a downer, but Hurney does not inspire confidence based on his past that he's the sort of GM likely to handle this situation shrewdly or effectively. The Moton negotiations should tell us where his thinking lies. If Moton gets the kind of long term deal that's Hurney's signature move from the past, don't be surprised if we get screwed because of cap contraction next year. If it happens, don't let anyone fool you by saying no one could have seen it coming. Anyone with half a brain right now should be able to see it coming. 

[bababoey]

We currently have 163 million against the cap for 2021, not counting dead money ( Luke, Gano).  Just to put thing into perspective Atlanta has 213 million, New Orleans 255 million, Cleveland  191 million.  None of those numbers include any dead money from players cut this past offseason.  If the cap does go into a tailspin, which it may,  even if we sign 2 or 3 guys to long term contracts we are not going to be the team that has problems next year.  Cutting all those guys and having most of the dead money hit this offseason could be the biggest blessing the Panthers have ever had.  

[1of10Charnatives]

2 minutes ago, bababoey said:

We currently have 163 million against the cap for 2021, not counting dead money ( Luke, Gano).  Just to put thing into perspective Atlanta has 213 million, New Orleans 255 million, Cleveland  191 million.  None of those numbers include any dead money from players cut this past offseason.  If the cap does go into a tailspin, which it may,  even if we sign 2 or 3 guys to long term contracts we are not going to be the team that has problems next year.  Cutting all those guys and having most of the dead money hit this offseason could be the biggest blessing the Panthers have ever had.  

While I agree we're in better position than most teams, given the economic realities right now, a salary cap that contracts by HALF is not remotely unrealistic. Suppose the NFL is only able to collect most but not all of it's TV revenue due to a shortened season (ratings should be insanely good as viewers are starved for any new programming right now), and ticket, concession and merchandising revenue is so far down it only makes up the difference to get back to half.

A $100 million salary cap next year is not remotely improbable. It could even be argued it's likely. If that happens, being only 63 million over as compared to 100 million plus over might be an advantage, or it might not help at all. I suspect an awful lot of NFL players with contracts in hand that extend beyond this year are going to find those contracts worth little and less while the handful of players who negotiated fully guaranteed deals in the past few years should be calling their agent every single day to thank them. 

*Looks pointedly at Kirk Cousins.*

[Tbe]

If there is no college football, nfl ratings will be insane. TV money may go up if they have any ability to renegotiate those deals. 
 

I'm curious what happens to those huge guaranteed deals if the cap falls dramatically. Is a guy like Russell Wilson really going to take 1/3 of his teams cap? 
 

At some point the math won’t add up. Will guys happily renegotiate or can the teams do something else?