At this point

[Pantherzack179812]

11 hours ago, Peon Awesome said:

I think the chances we not only have an effective vaccine available by November but distributed and administered to enough people that we could reasonably try to play with fans at full capacity in stadiums is somewhere between 0 and negative 15%. Also the virus is more likely to be more easily spread by then and also will coincide with the start of flu season. It's just a colossally bad idea. Your goal is realistically reserved for the 2021 season and even that's not 100% certain.

Distribution is being way overstated... 

We are already making millions of doses of the vaccine BEFORE they're approved. (Operation warp speed)

There will likely be 50 million to 100 million doses of the vaccine ready by the time FDA approval would be met. If you dont have the vaccine by the time the regular season starts DONT GO TO THE GAME, the second it remotely looks like it might be approved, distribution will begin. 

 

 

 

[Mother Grabber]

13 hours ago, Happy Panther said:

If it is safe to do it without fans or 20% capacity then get it done. So I can watch football. But based on the MLB so far it doesn't seem promising.

NHL starts this weekend. so far so good with them.

[Pantherzack179812]

16 hours ago, bababoey said:

No it would not.  Probably not even close.  TV contracts are based on 17 weeks of games.  You change that to 12,  no matter how many fans you have in the stands for all 12 games,  it would be less money than a normal 17 week season.  The NFL currently makes more than 5 billion a year for TV deals.  Fans in the stadium help, but TV drives the NFL and all of sports for that matter.

4 extra games on TV does not= the ticket sales from 12 games... You realize every single seat in our silver club alone costs over $275 A PIECE? 

[bababoey]

3 hours ago, Pantherzack179812 said:

4 extra games on TV does not= the ticket sales from 12 games... You realize every single seat in our silver club alone costs over $275 A PIECE? 

First it"s 5 extra games because of the bye week and if you go to 12 games you have to renegotiate with the NFLPA about how and when to add a bye week, if you have one at all. Average ticket price per seat in the NFL is $100.  The you have to assume that a vaccine is found and everyone has access to it and everyone feels safe enough to go to a game and enough people still has enough disposable income to go to games.  Losing 5 weeks of games on TV cost the NFL 1.5 billion dollars.  If all 12 games sell out (70,000) fans you are talking a little more than 2 billion.  So it could work, but to assume all the other things especially the vaccine has been found before this year ends and the NFL is willing to throw away 1.5 billion hoping for that is just not going to happen.  Then there is the NFLPA and changing the salaries of all the players based on 12 games vs 16 and the MLB is like "yeah that will be easy". 

Edit:  I did the math wrong.  The revenue from seating for 70,000 fans for 12 games for all the NFL is not over 2 billion it is a little less than 1.5 billion.  I did the math for 16 games and not 12 before.  So you would have all those other problem and you would still lose money over the TV deal.  Yeah not going to happen.

[Happy Panther]

9 hours ago, Mother Grabber said:

NHL starts this weekend. so far so good with them.

Same with NBA. But both are in a bubble. 

[ickmule]

Anyone waiting for a vaccine and believing it will be very effective is fooling themselves.  If what they say about only having immunity for a few months after having the virus is true a vaccine will be worthless.  Just look at how ineffective the seasonal flu vaccine is, it’s a crap shoot every flu season as they guess at what strain of flu is coming.