How I think Rhule Manipulated the Draft

[Khyber53]

By avoiding the OT, WR and QB feeding troughs in this year's draft, we will set ourselves up for better picks in next year's draft. Those positions might be sated before we get to 2021 and there might be just a couple fewer courters for the best in those spots. (All of those are always well sought after, but this was a bumper crop year for quality candidates.)

 

[kungfoodude]

Rhule/Hurney are not seers. They had a draft board just like everyone else. 

/Story.

[bigdavis]

I think we stole a couple gems, with late round picks that others weren't even considering.

Our first 3 picks (Brown, YGM, and Chinn) were solid, and not at all surprising.  We were just lucky that YGM fell that far, due to all the QB and WR love that went on in the 1st round.

I'm indifferent to Pride, who needs a whole lotta coaching up to be a contributor; his deficits are scary to me.

But Kenny Robinson is a GREAT value where we got him.  Apparently he didn't even appear on many mocks, which only considered the most recent college class.  He was the best S in the XFL, and is loaded with a will to excel.  He may not start, but will contribute, as the season wears on.

As for Roy...wow!  Not having a Pro Day, or being invited to the combine, he was invisible to GMs and coaches -- all except Rhule.  This is absolutely the best depth we could've found at NT, giving us, IMO, the best 2 run-stoppers we could find, both better than anybody we fumbled around with last year.  The Panthers won't be swiss cheese for RBs any more.

[bababoey]

[TheSpecialJuan]

Good stuff 

[bigdavis]

22 hours ago, bigdavis said:

I think we stole a couple gems, with late round picks that others weren't even considering.

 

As for Roy...wow!  Not having a Pro Day, or being invited to the combine, he was invisible to GMs and coaches -- all except Rhule.  This is absolutely the best depth we could've found at NT, giving us, IMO, the best 2 run-stoppers we could find, both better than anybody we fumbled around with last year.  The Panthers won't be swiss cheese for RBs any more.

Yeah, I know it's probably lame, replying to my own post, but couldn't find a better place to put this thought.

Walter Cherepinsky (Walter Football) revises his mocks constantly through the months leading up to the draft, and makes detailed comments about players you've never heard of -- yet he, like so many other "experts," missed Roy's very existence, as I said they did.  No wonder he fell in Rhule's lap!

Carolina Panthers: Bravvion Roy, DT, Baylor - D- Grade
I'm stumped. I didn't have this guy on any list anywhere. Is this a joke? Did the Panthers do this to protest ESPN's horrible draft coverage? I don't know.

Yet, despite this glaring omission on his part, he still gave the Panthers an overall "A" on their total draft.

Carolina Panthers: A Grade

[Pantherzack179812]

On 4/26/2020 at 10:46 PM, MHS831 said:

I say Rhule and not Hurney because one of the moves involved a Baylor player--Roy.

This is a theory---not stating this as a fact, but it is based on the relationship between circumstance and opportunity, highlighted by a critical listening of the post-draft interviews and the actions.  Like any good conspiracy theory, it requires and open mind, active imagination, and knowledge of the facts.  This is worth the read, if I say so myself, so let it breathe.

First of all, I always figured that the BPA concept is BS.  What if the BPA is a guard every time?  No.  Not buying it.  Here is how I know, or how I think I know, how Rhule impacted the draft.  Spoiler alert: (not really) he is smarter than you think.

It all started in the first round, after the Panthers took Derrick Brown.  Was he the BPA?  Probably.  There is your easy, home run, the one Marty can brag about...but remember, they were trying to trade back up into the first round.  Why?  You have next year's draft, pick #38, 69, etc.  you should have had the capital to move up.  Why was Marty not able to pull off a trade?  He was not offering enough, obviously.   But we are talking about a DE--the second-best DE in the draft--and we still stayed with a plan. YGM fell to us, we drafted him, not expecting him to be there---that was BPA, but was it?  If we were targeting him and trying to work out a trade for 10 prior picks, was he the best player the entire time?  Maybe. 

FLASHBACK:  Marty drove all the way to Hickory to visit Duggers at Lenoir Rhyne.  At the same time, most scholars were speculating that the Panthers would take Simmons or Brown.  It is my suspicion that the Panthers decided on Brown then, insisting that a big, athletic S available later would suffice.  So we know that Rhule was interested in a big, athletic S that can do multiple things.  Duggars was perhaps one of them, a compromise for taking Brown over Simmons, and Chinn was likely the other one. Marty wanted to see what he could do.  New England knew this, so they traded with the LAC and moved up to take the S they thought we wanted, Duggers, just before our second rounder, pick #38.  While that is who we may have been targeting, when YGM dropped into our laps, we grabbed him, knowing there was another big S out there--Chinn from So. Illinois.  Only 1.

They wanted to trade back up to get Chinn earlier in the second round, but they could not.  Why?   That is the core of this suspenseful post.  They knew they needed a CB--and trading the fourth rounder and the third rounder to move back into the second round for a S would not produce a quality CB--they knew the market for CB in the middle of the draft.  Besides- Rhule had already made plans for their fifth and sixth rounders.  The only capital they had to move up was a fifth rounder (we had 2--thanks Kyle Allen) and maybe the seventh--and it has little value.  So when they had enough money to stop the ice cream truck, the threw the extra fifth rounder on the ledge and got the S they wanted--the big S that would make passing on Simmons much easier to swallow.

I have to think that the first round was intended for Brown and the second was originally intended for that big Swiss army knife S/Buffalo Nickel/OLB Simmons clone.  The third then would be for the CB.  But NE moved in for Duggars, YGM fell, and we had to adjust in good way in the second round.  It may be the best second round this team has ever had.

So then Pride was there in the fourth round.  SInce the plan was to find a CB in round 3, they had knowledge of several mid-draft CBs.  Rhule had chatted (virtual visit) with Pride, so he had to be elated when he was there. Here is another interesting catch:  Rhule (in a post-draft interview) mentioned chatting with Pride--he said that his wife was impressed with Pride's maturity.  After an interview with Herbert, Herbert was asked if the Panthers talked to him---he refused to answer, only to later brag about speaking with the Patriots. On most of visits/virtual chat lists, NOBODY the Panthers chatted or met with is listed, except seventh rounder Stantley Thomas-Oliver. The way those lists are assembled is usually from tweets or prospect comments to reporters.  Marty Hurney, meanwhile, attends Herbert's pro day, obviously a decoy.  Why did Pride not tweet, "Just got off Zoom with Matt Rhule..."  I think the players they wanted were instructed not to speak to anyone in any way about the visit.  Remember, Marty's visit to see Duggar?  The Patriots traded ahead of us and took him.  They do homework. With a ton of CBs at the top of the draft, I think he got a 3rd round talent in round 4 because Pride was not on the Panther radar.  Deep stuff.  Again, why did we not trade up again?  Because we had players targeted in the fifth and sixth rounds and already knew who they were.

Rhule knew the fifth round is about where he could probably land XFL FS Robinson.  He knew that Robinson was off the grid and that he had no combine numbers or pro days.  There were no private workouts--so Rhule figured Robinson would be there in the fifth round, and he grabbed a 21-year old future starting safety, one that (some expert said) would have had a second-round grade if he stayed in college.   Rhule, in an interview, admitted that they had checked him out thoroughly, talking to coaches etc along his path.  They did their homework as thoroughly as they would a first rounder.  Who does all that for a fifth rounder?

How do I know it was probably Rhule behind this?  Because round six involved the same strategy, but this time, only Rhule possessed critical information about the player--Roy, from Baylor.  He knew that Roy had not been invited to the combine.  He knew that the Coronavirus cancelled pro days and private workouts.  He also knew how strong Roy is, and how fast (4.8) he could run the 40.  That 40 time would have sent him up boards quickly, probably (at least) into the middle rounds.  So we get Roy--a third or fourth rounder in another year--in the sixth round.

So in the seventh round, the actually drafted another CB that they had met with at the EW game and virtually.  

One more thing:  The Panthers ignored the deep areas of the draft on offense (OT, WR) but insist that the draft just fell that way.  I am not so sure about that, based on the prioritizing of some of the undrafted free agents we signed. I think we had Bayless (WR) and 2 TEs already committed.  Just a hunch.

 

I don't think the Panthers ever considered going QB. If you go Herbert or even Tua, you could've kept Cam Newton for 1 year to teach Tua or Herbert and help build his resume for a new deal. If we SUCK bad in 2020, TB could teach TL or Fields for a year as we cut him for cap savings in year 3 (he will have exhausted his guaranteed money). 

I would've liked this draft 10x more if we gave Norman 10 million and didn't sign Weatherly. Rhule is just such a car salesman, he just finishes drafting 3 defensive lineman, signs one in FA with 4 already on the roster, and he wants to talk up Efe Obada. 

You can sell me on Brown, 39 was not BPA or fulfilling a need. You now have put our 2nd rd pick on the bench, and gave up a 5th to resolve the problem. If you wanted to go that route in the draft, why not forgo Weatherly and sign a veteran DB? I 100% agree that a GREAT line can hide A bad secondary... My problem is this secondary isn't bad, it's total $hit.  

Now everyone is gone, we will end up having to cut someone, because we don't need 12 defensive lineman. Donte Jackson has shined and been burnt, we have to put 100% faith he can step up to the role of a #1 corner, maybe he becomes Josh Norman 2.0, maybe he becomes Dayrl Worley, it's yet to be seen.

I like the safety pick, I honestly feel we could've got him at 39, Hurney wanted to draft Greg Little in the 1st, so I really don't trust his judgement on waiting.

My #1 issue with the GM. Hurney get's VERY fixated. We had a Derek Brown Jingle ready to post minutes after we drafted him, that video was clearly made in sunlight. We didn't give a thought that Simmons might better help our team. Even great D-lines let runners get between the tackles, LBs are just as import to improve run D. 

Then to make matters worse, Tampa essentially announces they we're ready to give a 2, possibly a 1 to move up. Arizona made it clear they didn't want Brown, I seriously doubt anyone from 9-12 needed a DT, a 2nd this year or a 1st next year was worth the risk of losing Brown. Frankly, I would've taken Kinlaw and a 2nd or 1st instead of just getting Brown.

I think Brown will probably be a great player, but DTs can only do SO MUCH to improve a team. This team led the league in sacks last year, pressure was not our issue.

 

[ForJimmy]

I think Weatherly was a needed FA signing. We need some vet players on the line (especially to start the season). Now we can rotate them out to keep our line fresh. Not to mention we actually have a little depth if there is an injury. Roy and Kerr can back up the DTs and Obada, Weatherly, Burns, and YGM should be rotating in and out at DE to keep everyone fresh. Chris Smith is another vet that could help with depth (if he makes the team). Our defensive line now has youth and depth going into this season. It went from a weakness to arguably a strength (potentially speaking). Whitehead, Shaq and Burris/Chinn also just got better now that blockers won’t be mauling them when they are trying to make a tackle. Throw in the potential of Pride and Robinson (speed and size!) and we have the makings of a good defense in a year or so. I would still like a vet CB signing (maybe waiting on cuts) to help ease Pride into his starting job.

[arbnranger]

On 4/27/2020 at 9:29 AM, Rockahype said:

 

MHS831, your draft predictions, follow-up topics like this and all other fresh material are much appreciated. Cheers! 

 

Thanks . Totally agree .