How I think Rhule Manipulated the Draft

[MHS831]

I say Rhule and not Hurney because one of the moves involved a Baylor player--Roy.

This is a theory---not stating this as a fact, but it is based on the relationship between circumstance and opportunity, highlighted by a critical listening of the post-draft interviews and the actions.  Like any good conspiracy theory, it requires and open mind, active imagination, and knowledge of the facts.  This is worth the read, if I say so myself, so let it breathe.

First of all, I always figured that the BPA concept is BS.  What if the BPA is a guard every time?  No.  Not buying it.  Here is how I know, or how I think I know, how Rhule impacted the draft.  Spoiler alert: (not really) he is smarter than you think.

It all started in the first round, after the Panthers took Derrick Brown.  Was he the BPA?  Probably.  There is your easy, home run, the one Marty can brag about...but remember, they were trying to trade back up into the first round.  Why?  You have next year's draft, pick #38, 69, etc.  you should have had the capital to move up.  Why was Marty not able to pull off a trade?  He was not offering enough, obviously.   But we are talking about a DE--the second-best DE in the draft--and we still stayed with a plan. YGM fell to us, we drafted him, not expecting him to be there---that was BPA, but was it?  If we were targeting him and trying to work out a trade for 10 prior picks, was he the best player the entire time?  Maybe. 

FLASHBACK:  Marty drove all the way to Hickory to visit Duggers at Lenoir Rhyne.  At the same time, most scholars were speculating that the Panthers would take Simmons or Brown.  It is my suspicion that the Panthers decided on Brown then, insisting that a big, athletic S available later would suffice.  So we know that Rhule was interested in a big, athletic S that can do multiple things.  Duggars was perhaps one of them, a compromise for taking Brown over Simmons, and Chinn was likely the other one. Marty wanted to see what he could do.  New England knew this, so they traded with the LAC and moved up to take the S they thought we wanted, Duggers, just before our second rounder, pick #38.  While that is who we may have been targeting, when YGM dropped into our laps, we grabbed him, knowing there was another big S out there--Chinn from So. Illinois.  Only 1.

They wanted to trade back up to get Chinn earlier in the second round, but they could not.  Why?   That is the core of this suspenseful post.  They knew they needed a CB--and trading the fourth rounder and the third rounder to move back into the second round for a S would not produce a quality CB--they knew the market for CB in the middle of the draft.  Besides- Rhule had already made plans for their fifth and sixth rounders.  The only capital they had to move up was a fifth rounder (we had 2--thanks Kyle Allen) and maybe the seventh--and it has little value.  So when they had enough money to stop the ice cream truck, the threw the extra fifth rounder on the ledge and got the S they wanted--the big S that would make passing on Simmons much easier to swallow.

I have to think that the first round was intended for Brown and the second was originally intended for that big Swiss army knife S/Buffalo Nickel/OLB Simmons clone.  The third then would be for the CB.  But NE moved in for Duggars, YGM fell, and we had to adjust in good way in the second round.  It may be the best second round this team has ever had.

So then Pride was there in the fourth round.  SInce the plan was to find a CB in round 3, they had knowledge of several mid-draft CBs.  Rhule had chatted (virtual visit) with Pride, so he had to be elated when he was there. Here is another interesting catch:  Rhule (in a post-draft interview) mentioned chatting with Pride--he said that his wife was impressed with Pride's maturity.  After an interview with Herbert, Herbert was asked if the Panthers talked to him---he refused to answer, only to later brag about speaking with the Patriots. On most of visits/virtual chat lists, NOBODY the Panthers chatted or met with is listed, except seventh rounder Stantley Thomas-Oliver. The way those lists are assembled is usually from tweets or prospect comments to reporters.  Marty Hurney, meanwhile, attends Herbert's pro day, obviously a decoy.  Why did Pride not tweet, "Just got off Zoom with Matt Rhule..."  I think the players they wanted were instructed not to speak to anyone in any way about the visit.  Remember, Marty's visit to see Duggar?  The Patriots traded ahead of us and took him.  They do homework. With a ton of CBs at the top of the draft, I think he got a 3rd round talent in round 4 because Pride was not on the Panther radar.  Deep stuff.  Again, why did we not trade up again?  Because we had players targeted in the fifth and sixth rounds and already knew who they were.

Rhule knew the fifth round is about where he could probably land XFL FS Robinson.  He knew that Robinson was off the grid and that he had no combine numbers or pro days.  There were no private workouts--so Rhule figured Robinson would be there in the fifth round, and he grabbed a 21-year old future starting safety, one that (some expert said) would have had a second-round grade if he stayed in college.   Rhule, in an interview, admitted that they had checked him out thoroughly, talking to coaches etc along his path.  They did their homework as thoroughly as they would a first rounder.  Who does all that for a fifth rounder?

How do I know it was probably Rhule behind this?  Because round six involved the same strategy, but this time, only Rhule possessed critical information about the player--Roy, from Baylor.  He knew that Roy had not been invited to the combine.  He knew that the Coronavirus cancelled pro days and private workouts.  He also knew how strong Roy is, and how fast (4.8) he could run the 40.  That 40 time would have sent him up boards quickly, probably (at least) into the middle rounds.  So we get Roy--a third or fourth rounder in another year--in the sixth round.

So in the seventh round, the actually drafted another CB that they had met with at the EW game and virtually.  

One more thing:  The Panthers ignored the deep areas of the draft on offense (OT, WR) but insist that the draft just fell that way.  I am not so sure about that, based on the prioritizing of some of the undrafted free agents we signed. I think we had Bayless (WR) and 2 TEs already committed.  Just a hunch.

So the BPA theory, if we actually had picks targeting specific players, is not totally accurate.

 

There is my theory on how this went down the way it did. 

The result?
1. Brown (top 5 pick)

2. YGM (first round talent in second round)

3. Chinn (mid second round talent at the end of the second round)

4. Pride (maybe a third rounder in other years, based on measurables and productivity)

5. Robinson (second-round talent in the fifth round)

6. Roy (third/fourth round projection if he only had a pro day/combine--remember how Poe from Memphis shot up boards with his display of athleticism for a NT?)

Conspiracy theory?  Too many connected dots.  Rhule played the system a bit and won.

The end.

[1of10Charnatives]

*nods knowingly*

Wait...

what was the middle part again?

[Wolfcop]

That's incredible...I'm tired now

[MHS831]

2 minutes ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

*nods knowingly*

Wait...

what was the middle part again?

should have broken it into chapters.  Seriously--think about the fifth and sixth rounds--we had a plan and were targeting these players--I think it is why Hurney expressed frustration about not being able to trade--I think Rhule told him to leave those picks alone.

[4Corners]

[MMA]

19 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I say Rhule and not Hurney because one of the moves involved a Baylor player--Roy.

This is a theory---not stating this as a fact, but it is based on the relationship between circumstance and opportunity, highlighted by a critical listening of the post-draft interviews and the actions.  Like any good conspiracy theory, it requires and open mind, active imagination, and knowledge of the facts.  This is worth the read, if I say so myself, so let it breathe.

First of all, I always figured that the BPA concept is BS.  What if the BPA is a guard every time?  No.  Not buying it.  Here is how I know, or how I think I know, how Rhule impacted the draft.  Spoiler alert: (not really) he is smarter than you think.

It all started in the first round, after the Panthers took Derrick Brown.  Was he the BPA?  Probably.  There is your easy, home run, the one Marty can brag about...but remember, they were trying to trade back up into the first round.  Why?  You have next year's draft, pick #38, 69, etc.  you should have had the capital to move up.  Why was Marty not able to pull off a trade?  He was not offering enough, obviously.   But we are talking about a DE--the second-best DE in the draft--and we still stayed with a plan. YGM fell to us, we drafted him, not expecting him to be there---that was BPA, but was it?  If we were targeting him and trying to work out a trade for 10 prior picks, was he the best player the entire time?  Maybe. 

FLASHBACK:  Marty drove all the way to Hickory to visit Duggers at Lenoir Rhyne.  At the same time, most scholars were speculating that the Panthers would take Simmons or Brown.  It is my suspicion that the Panthers decided on Brown then, insisting that a big, athletic S available later would suffice.  So we know that Rhule was interested in a big, athletic S that can do multiple things.  Duggars was perhaps one of them, a compromise for taking Brown over Simmons, and Chinn was likely the other one. Marty wanted to see what he could do.  New England knew this, so they traded with the LAC and moved up to take the S they thought we wanted, Duggers, just before our second rounder, pick #38.  While that is who we may have been targeting, when YGM dropped into our laps, we grabbed him, knowing there was another big S out there--Chinn from So. Illinois.  Only 1.

They wanted to trade back up to get Chinn earlier in the second round, but they could not.  Why?   That is the core of this suspenseful post.  They knew they needed a CB--and trading the fourth rounder and the third rounder to move back into the second round for a S would not produce a quality CB--they knew the market for CB in the middle of the draft.  Besides- Rhule had already made plans for their fifth and sixth rounders.  The only capital they had to move up was a fifth rounder (we had 2--thanks Kyle Allen) and maybe the seventh--and it has little value.  So when they had enough money to stop the ice cream truck, the threw the extra fifth rounder on the ledge and got the S they wanted--the big S that would make passing on Simmons much easier to swallow.

I have to think that the first round was intended for Brown and the second was originally intended for that big Swiss army knife S/Buffalo Nickel/OLB Simmons clone.  The third then would be for the CB.  But NE moved in for Duggars, YGM fell, and we had to adjust in good way in the second round.  It may be the best second round this team has ever had.

So then Pride was there in the fourth round.  SInce the plan was to find a CB in round 3, they had knowledge of several mid-draft CBs.  Rhule had chatted (virtual visit) with Pride, so he had to be elated when he was there. Here is another interesting catch:  Rhule (in a post-draft interview) mentioned chatting with Pride--he said that his wife was impressed with Pride's maturity.  After an interview with Herbert, Herbert was asked if the Panthers talked to him---he refused to answer, only to later brag about speaking with the Patriots. On most of visits/virtual chat lists, NOBODY the Panthers chatted or met with is listed, except seventh rounder Stantley Thomas-Oliver. The way those lists are assembled is usually from tweets or prospect comments to reporters.  Marty Hurney, meanwhile, attends Herbert's pro day, obviously a decoy.  Why did Pride not tweet, "Just got off Zoom with Matt Rhule..."  I think the players they wanted were instructed not to speak to anyone in any way about the visit.  Remember, Marty's visit to see Duggar?  The Patriots traded ahead of us and took him.  They do homework. With a ton of CBs at the top of the draft, I think he got a 3rd round talent in round 4 because Pride was not on the Panther radar.  Deep stuff.  Again, why did we not trade up again?  Because we had players targeted in the fifth and sixth rounds and already knew who they were.

Rhule knew the fifth round is about where he could probably land XFL FS Robinson.  He knew that Robinson was off the grid and that he had no combine numbers or pro days.  There were no private workouts--so Rhule figured Robinson would be there in the fifth round, and he grabbed a 21-year old future starting safety, one that (some expert said) would have had a second-round grade if he stayed in college.   Rhule, in an interview, admitted that they had checked him out thoroughly, talking to coaches etc along his path.  They did their homework as thoroughly as they would a first rounder.  Who does all that for a fifth rounder?

How do I know it was probably Rhule behind this?  Because round six involved the same strategy, but this time, only Rhule possessed critical information about the player--Roy, from Baylor.  He knew that Roy had not been invited to the combine.  He knew that the Coronavirus cancelled pro days and private workouts.  He also knew how strong Roy is, and how fast (4.8) he could run the 40.  That 40 time would have sent him up boards quickly, probably (at least) into the middle rounds.  So we get Roy--a third or fourth rounder in another year--in the sixth round.

So in the seventh round, the actually drafted another CB that they had met with at the EW game and virtually.  

One more thing:  The Panthers ignored the deep areas of the draft on offense (OT, WR) but insist that the draft just fell that way.  I am not so sure about that, based on the prioritizing of some of the undrafted free agents we signed. I think we had Bayless (WR) and 2 TEs already committed.  Just a hunch.

So the BPA theory, if we actually had picks targeting specific players, is not totally accurate.

 

There is my theory on how this went down the way it did. 

The result?
1. Brown (top 5 pick)

2. YGM (first round talent in second round)

3. Chinn (mid second round talent at the end of the second round)

4. Pride (maybe a third rounder in other years, based on measurables and productivity)

5. Robinson (second-round talent in the fifth round)

6. Roy (third/fourth round projection if he only had a pro day/combine--remember how Poe from Memphis shot up boards with his display of athleticism for a NT?)

Conspiracy theory?  Too many connected dots.  Rhule played the system a bit and won.

The end.

Way too long. I didn’t get passed chapter 56. It’s the second post now by another huddler that was written longer than a Harry Potter novel. But, let me get to the point. Were you even watching the draft? NE didn’t trade up ahead of us for Dugger. Ouchhhhh. This just messed everything up for you and your theory. The Chargers traded with NE  to move up into the 1st round for Kenneth Murray. Thought I’d help you out. No problem. Call me anytime.

[*FreeFua*]

Orrrrrrr maybe they just weren’t sold on Simmons?

Read this article 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/04/nfl-draft-isaiah-simmons-position-film-scouting-report

Really great breakdown with snap counts at all the positions, video of snaps and more.

[MHS831]

3 minutes ago, MMA said:

Way too long. I didn’t finished it. The second post now by another huddled that was longer than Harry Potter. Let’s get to the point. Were you even watching the draft? NE didn’t trade up ahead of us for Dugger. Chargers traded with NE  to move up into the 1st round and take Murray. Thought I’d help you out. No problem. Call me anytime.

I figured you did not read it--or the person reading it to you got tired.   I also rolled my eyes when I saw the names responding.  When you ever get an idea, I hope I am there to offer you a response.  I will show more class and less ass. 

[MHS831]

9 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

Orrrrrrr maybe they just weren’t sold on Simmons?

Read this article 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/04/nfl-draft-isaiah-simmons-position-film-scouting-report

Really great breakdown with snap counts at all the positions, video of snaps and more.

The whole ppint is reading between the lines.  Whether they were sold on Simmons is a mute point because I suggested that they could get the same skill set with the other huge safeties.  No--they were not sold on Simmons--but could they get the same type player in the second round? Trying to decipher between what is real and what we are told.  Just a theory--and that was very clearly stated.  The 5th and 6th rounders were manipulations of the circumstances and carefully calculated.  Just for the sake of discussion and creative/outside the box thinking--beyond what some source tells you.

 

[ecu88]

23 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I say Rhule and not Hurney because one of the moves involved a Baylor player--Roy.

This is a theory---not stating this as a fact, but it is based on the relationship between circumstance and opportunity, highlighted by a critical listening of the post-draft interviews and the actions.  Like any good conspiracy theory, it requires and open mind, active imagination, and knowledge of the facts.  This is worth the read, if I say so myself, so let it breathe.

First of all, I always figured that the BPA concept is BS.  What if the BPA is a guard every time?  No.  Not buying it.  Here is how I know, or how I think I know, how Rhule impacted the draft.  Spoiler alert: (not really) he is smarter than you think.

It all started in the first round, after the Panthers took Derrick Brown.  Was he the BPA?  Probably.  There is your easy, home run, the one Marty can brag about...but remember, they were trying to trade back up into the first round.  Why?  You have next year's draft, pick #38, 69, etc.  you should have had the capital to move up.  Why was Marty not able to pull off a trade?  He was not offering enough, obviously.   But we are talking about a DE--the second-best DE in the draft--and we still stayed with a plan. YGM fell to us, we drafted him, not expecting him to be there---that was BPA, but was it?  If we were targeting him and trying to work out a trade for 10 prior picks, was he the best player the entire time?  Maybe. 

FLASHBACK:  Marty drove all the way to Hickory to visit Duggers at Lenoir Rhyne.  At the same time, most scholars were speculating that the Panthers would take Simmons or Brown.  It is my suspicion that the Panthers decided on Brown then, insisting that a big, athletic S available later would suffice.  So we know that Rhule was interested in a big, athletic S that can do multiple things.  Duggars was perhaps one of them, a compromise for taking Brown over Simmons, and Chinn was likely the other one. Marty wanted to see what he could do.  New England knew this, so they traded with the LAC and moved up to take the S they thought we wanted, Duggers, just before our second rounder, pick #38.  While that is who we may have been targeting, when YGM dropped into our laps, we grabbed him, knowing there was another big S out there--Chinn from So. Illinois.  Only 1.

They wanted to trade back up to get Chinn earlier in the second round, but they could not.  Why?   That is the core of this suspenseful post.  They knew they needed a CB--and trading the fourth rounder and the third rounder to move back into the second round for a S would not produce a quality CB--they knew the market for CB in the middle of the draft.  Besides- Rhule had already made plans for their fifth and sixth rounders.  The only capital they had to move up was a fifth rounder (we had 2--thanks Kyle Allen) and maybe the seventh--and it has little value.  So when they had enough money to stop the ice cream truck, the threw the extra fifth rounder on the ledge and got the S they wanted--the big S that would make passing on Simmons much easier to swallow.

I have to think that the first round was intended for Brown and the second was originally intended for that big Swiss army knife S/Buffalo Nickel/OLB Simmons clone.  The third then would be for the CB.  But NE moved in for Duggars, YGM fell, and we had to adjust in good way in the second round.  It may be the best second round this team has ever had.

So then Pride was there in the fourth round.  SInce the plan was to find a CB in round 3, they had knowledge of several mid-draft CBs.  Rhule had chatted (virtual visit) with Pride, so he had to be elated when he was there. Here is another interesting catch:  Rhule (in a post-draft interview) mentioned chatting with Pride--he said that his wife was impressed with Pride's maturity.  After an interview with Herbert, Herbert was asked if the Panthers talked to him---he refused to answer, only to later brag about speaking with the Patriots. On most of visits/virtual chat lists, NOBODY the Panthers chatted or met with is listed, except seventh rounder Stantley Thomas-Oliver. The way those lists are assembled is usually from tweets or prospect comments to reporters.  Marty Hurney, meanwhile, attends Herbert's pro day, obviously a decoy.  Why did Pride not tweet, "Just got off Zoom with Matt Rhule..."  I think the players they wanted were instructed not to speak to anyone in any way about the visit.  Remember, Marty's visit to see Duggar?  The Patriots traded ahead of us and took him.  They do homework. With a ton of CBs at the top of the draft, I think he got a 3rd round talent in round 4 because Pride was not on the Panther radar.  Deep stuff.  Again, why did we not trade up again?  Because we had players targeted in the fifth and sixth rounds and already knew who they were.

Rhule knew the fifth round is about where he could probably land XFL FS Robinson.  He knew that Robinson was off the grid and that he had no combine numbers or pro days.  There were no private workouts--so Rhule figured Robinson would be there in the fifth round, and he grabbed a 21-year old future starting safety, one that (some expert said) would have had a second-round grade if he stayed in college.   Rhule, in an interview, admitted that they had checked him out thoroughly, talking to coaches etc along his path.  They did their homework as thoroughly as they would a first rounder.  Who does all that for a fifth rounder?

How do I know it was probably Rhule behind this?  Because round six involved the same strategy, but this time, only Rhule possessed critical information about the player--Roy, from Baylor.  He knew that Roy had not been invited to the combine.  He knew that the Coronavirus cancelled pro days and private workouts.  He also knew how strong Roy is, and how fast (4.8) he could run the 40.  That 40 time would have sent him up boards quickly, probably (at least) into the middle rounds.  So we get Roy--a third or fourth rounder in another year--in the sixth round.

So in the seventh round, the actually drafted another CB that they had met with at the EW game and virtually.  

One more thing:  The Panthers ignored the deep areas of the draft on offense (OT, WR) but insist that the draft just fell that way.  I am not so sure about that, based on the prioritizing of some of the undrafted free agents we signed. I think we had Bayless (WR) and 2 TEs already committed.  Just a hunch.

So the BPA theory, if we actually had picks targeting specific players, is not totally accurate.

 

There is my theory on how this went down the way it did. 

The result?
1. Brown (top 5 pick)

2. YGM (first round talent in second round)

3. Chinn (mid second round talent at the end of the second round)

4. Pride (maybe a third rounder in other years, based on measurables and productivity)

5. Robinson (second-round talent in the fifth round)

6. Roy (third/fourth round projection if he only had a pro day/combine--remember how Poe from Memphis shot up boards with his display of athleticism for a NT?)

Conspiracy theory?  Too many connected dots.  Rhule played the system a bit and won.

The end.

 

[MMA]

6 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I figured you did not read it--or the person reading it to you got tired.   I also rolled my eyes when I saw the names responding.  When you ever get an idea, I hope I am there to offer you a response.  I will show more class and less ass. 

I’m sorry but New England didn’t trade up ahead of us to take Marty’s guy (Dugger). They got the pick the night before already from trading down with the Chargers. Hurney knew that for almost 24 hours already. If Dugger was Hurney’s guy, he would’ve pulled a Hurndog move and traded up ahead of the Pats. And just so you know, from CLT to Lenoir Rhyne isn’t very far at all. Hickory is my neck of the woods. Sorry if I sound like a jerk. I’m really not. And if you are not an ass guy then why did you rolled your eyes when you saw my profile name? Just curious 

[saX man]

Not to be an arse but this is unnecessarily exhausting to even read. What are we trying to decipher? The length and style of Hurney’s remaining leash?

[saX man]

And good

god

people

don’t recopy the entire OP

[MHS831]

2 minutes ago, MMA said:

I’m sorry but New England didn’t trade up ahead of us to take Marty’s guy (Dugger). They got the pick the night before already from trading down the the Chargers. Hurney knew that for almost 24 hours already. If Dugger was Hurney’s guy, he would’ve pulled a Hurndog move and traded up ahead of the Pats. And just so you know, from CLT to Lenoir Rhyne isn’t very far at all. Hickory is my neck of the woods. Sorry if I sound like a jerk. I’m really not. 

Ok-but the point is they had the pick and took Duggar before the panthers--thinking the Panthers would take him---How they got it is not the point.  I have never been a jerk to you--so I do not take it that way--and I know the distance between Hickory and Charlotte--I was not being literal