DTs who do not generate double digit sacks do not make the Hall of Fame (Brown's ceiling?)

[bobowilson]

Derrick Brown has a really high floor, but low ceiling.  This was a 'safe' pick, and he won't be a bust, but we should have been a lot more ambitious at the #7 spot.  When I speak about the HOF, I refer to the modern NFL.

Every top 10 pick we've had over the past two decades has been a Hall of Famer.

Sure we had a historically bad run defense, but we're not contending for the Super Bowl next year, or even the year after.  You have to aim for the Hall of Fame talent with a top 10 pick, and not  become overly concerned with need when you're years away from contention.     Don't get me wrong, Derrick Brown will likely be a fantastic pro, but the positional value for a DT who is not an elite pass rusher is just not there to justify a top 10 selection.

If you believe he is a Hall of Famer, try to think of a comparable player in the NFL he matches to.   Brown never had more than 4 sacks in any college season, and I haven't seen any analyst project him to be an elite pass rusher in the NFL.

For reference, here are the past Panthers drafted in the top 10.

 

Christian McCaffrey

Luke Kuechly

Cam Newton

Jordan Gross

Julius Peppers

[WarPanthers89]

How do you know how low his ceiling is? I’ve seen him dominate against the best college had to offer, and if he continues to develop, he can be dominate in the NFL. 

[bobowilson]

Just now, WarPanthers89 said:

How do you know how low his ceiling is? I’ve seen him dominate against the best college had to offer, and if he continues to develop, he can be dominate in the NFL. 

In the modern pass oriented NFL, dominating against the run and clogging the middle is not taking you to Canton or giving you a gold jacket.

He will be a great pro, high end starter, maybe even make a few Pro Bowls.  Is that enough to justify the draft capital of a top 7 pick (when Hurney has been flawless drafting in the top 10)?

Analytics community doesn't seem to think so.

 

 

[Mage]

1 minute ago, bobowilson said:

In the modern pass oriented NFL, dominating against the run and clogging the middle is not taking you to Canton or giving you a gold jacket.

He will be a great pro, high end starter, maybe even make a few Pro Bowls.  Is that enough to justify the draft capital of a top 7 pick (when Hurney has been flawless drafting in the top 10)?

Analytics community doesn't seem to think so.

 

 

Lol you do realize how hard making the Hall of Fame is right?  

Just because someone isn’t a HOFer doesn’t mean they aren’t worth a top 7 pick.

[Seltzer]

He's not even played one down as a professional yet.  His college tape speaks for itself.  If he helps turn Short back into a double digit sack guy and helps Burns get double digit sacks while anchoring the run with potentially a couple of sacks himself, he's worth it.

He's nasty on the field.  He reminds me of Kris Jenkins.  If he can be that player for us, no one with any football sense will care if he's a "double digit sack" guy.  

Way too much is made out of that in some situations.  Case in point last year.  To look at the sacks totals alone, you would think we had a good to great defense.  Nothing could be further from the truth.

To me, a lot of this comes back to Clemson homers upset we took Brown over Simmons.  If Simmons is the next Lawrence Taylor or Luke Kuechly, then maybe we made a mistake.

Otherwise, I think Brown will be a much more impactful player over the long term.

[Jon Snow]

Just now, Mage said:

Lol you do realize how hard making the Hall of Fame is right?  

Just because someone isn’t a HOFer doesn’t mean they aren’t worth a top 7 pick.

Ignore him, he's a butthurt Simmons fan.

[bobowilson]

1 minute ago, Mage said:

Lol you do realize how hard making the Hall of Fame is right?  

Just because someone isn’t a HOFer doesn’t mean they aren’t worth a top 7 pick.

Have you looked at Panthers top 10 picks in the last 20 years?

Cam Newton might be the only one to not make the HOF, and only due to injury.

 

 

[bobowilson]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Ignore him, he's a butthurt Simmons fan.

I actually wanted us to trade down, since this draft didn't have that many generational players at the top, but was deep in the middle round.  Okudah was the last guy drafted I thought had HOF upside.

There were reports Hurney was looking to trade down as well, it's possible no one was willing to give much up realizing the same thing as I.

 

[ecu88]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Ignore him, he's a butthurt Simmons fan.

I was Simmons fan but I cannot believe Bob is missing what we have done!

Brown is our Reggie White in NT form, he impacts the whole line!

KK is extremely happy! 

Brown helps others get "HoF sTaTz" that Bob considers to be so important.

Brown frees up KK to finally be able go work instead of being the one double teamed everytime like the last 2 years.

Brown taking 2 Olinemen frees up our Ends to feast!

On top of that, Brown wants to play with Bravvion in the game.

Imagine this line-up.

KK - Obada - Bravvion - Brown as the big line 

[bobowilson]

8 minutes ago, Seltzer said:

He's not even played one down as a professional yet.  His college tape speaks for itself.  If he helps turn Short back into a double digit sack guy and helps Burns get double digit sacks while anchoring the run with potentially a couple of sacks himself, he's worth it.

 

This feels reactionary, a result of some trauma from what we watched last year.  Drafting for need when you're so many years from contending is a really impulsive decision to make.

We'll have many years to assemble our team, and you don't have to spend #7 draft capital to fill this need.

[Jaxel]

Vince wilfork will one day.

[pantherclaw]

I read, but I sure wish I didn't. 

 

[OneBadCat]

Penis

[bobowilson]

15 minutes ago, Jaxel said:

Vince wilfork will one day.

Not a chance

And different era