Verge's Mock Draft and Insight thread 2020

[Verge]

Insights: 
-This will absolutely be the most random draft ever, lots of people will be completely wrong on this draft because team scouts have not been around each other evaluating and chatting in the normal fashion. This draft will really show which teams are best at studying film, because that is exactly what you are going to get. At the same time, teams are now more influenced more than ever by the media, which also leaves teams vulnerable to disinformation intentionally put out.

-This draft is especially loaded in a very odd year, there is tons of value in rounds 2-3, which makes me think teams will be more likely to trade back, and there will be a lot of trades as some teams have "their guy" and some see the extreme value in the extra picks this year. 

-Tua's draft consensus is complete fuged, he is straight off at least one teams boards, where as others just are not sure at all and feel like the information put out by Tua's agents just isn't accurate. There are serious questions about his ability to hold up at a higher level when he failed to do so in college. This leads to the idea that Herbert is most likely the second QB off the board, because the teams in a position to nab Herbert have somebody he can sit behind for a year and mold the stallion that is Herbert. 

-There isn't really a consensus in any of these groups of positional players. QB, WR, TE, CB, are all over the place on people's boards, some team's CB3 is another's CB7. This goes along with the first point, there is not a grouping that is generally agreed upon. 

-The first round is straight up going to be littered with offensive line. This is most definitely the most talented o-line class to come out in a long time, and with a recent drought of draft success at the position, teams are eager to shoot up and go get them. I would expect to see nine or more offensive lineman in the first round. 

-This is a super talented RB group, but I am hesitant to even put one in the first round (Spoiler: I still am going to) due to all the talent available at high value positions. The degradation of the position itself has left a bitter taste in teams mouths as well, with RBs fizzling out with second contracts, while mid round RBs thrive on a cheap contract. There isn't a CMC or Barkley in this class. 

Team fits: 
Andrew Thomas - Bucs 
Ezra Cleveland - Browns 
Denzel Mims - Eagles and Broncos 
Justin Jefferson - Broncos, Eagles, Jaguars 
Derick Brown - Panthers, Cardinals, Jaguars 
Tristan Wirfs - Giants, Jets 

Mock Draft 1.0 2020:

1. Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU 
This is an easy pick that should be penciled in. I wasn't the biggest fan of Joe Burrow early in the season, but he certainly grew on me, and the more I watched the more I loved. He has natural instincts to rival the best in the NFL, incredibly accurate deep balls, and the drive to take the team on his back. You don't trade out of a sure fire franchise QB. Only weaknesses on tape is an "okay" arm, sometimes has a hitch in this deep throws, and was bailed out by receivers on balls that hung. Otherwise perfect. Final Grade: 94/100

2. Washington: Chase Young, DE, OSU
Unquestionably the best player in the draft, looks like he was molded to play the position, dominant on a whim, and disrupts the entire offensive game plan. Triple teams didn't matter. Ron won't mess this up. 
Final Grade: 99/100 

3. **Trade** Dolphins: Justin Herbert, QB, ORE 
Wild stallion QB installed in a system that didn't let him grow. Elite arm, elite size, excellent athlete, and has all world ball placement ability. Desperately needs to refine his decision making and understanding of the complexities of timing and evaluating defenses. He is not ready to go quite yet, sit him behind Fitzpatrick and let him learn. More Josh Allen than Mitch Trubisky. Final Grade: 90/100 

4. Giants: Tristan Wirfs, T/G/Whatever, IOW 
This could be another trade down spot, or this could be Jedrick Wills who earns my higher grade. Giants desperately need to protect their franchise QB and mitigate the fumbling issue with help on the line, Wirfs allows this with his versatility and elite athleticism. Final Grade: 93/100

5. Lions: Jeffery Okudah, CB, OHST 
All signs have been pointing here, and it is a total fit for his grade as well as team need. Lengthy corner who fits in any system you want him in, not many flaws in his evaluation, maybe wish he had more top end speed? He will come in and immediately be a #1 corner in the mold of Jalen Ramsey. Final Grade: 95/100 

6. Chargers: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, ALA 
I really don't know if Tua will go here, higher, or lower. I don't imagine he could drop out of the top 15, he is too talented. Obvious concerns are durability and hero ball. Otherwise extremely efficient, accurate, mobile, great arm, lots of NFL throws. You certainly take a risk taking him, and I'm not sure you do it here. Final Grade: 97/100 (Injuries not factored)

7. Panthers: Isaiah Simmons, LB, CLE 
I think this is going to be a very tough choice between Simmons and Brown here if we don't trade down. Simmons is the ultimate modern defensive football player, a super mutant with a bottomless tool bag, can cover WRs or play sideline to sideline as a S/LB hybrid. Rhule is looking for all these things in a player, so the fit makes total sense. Just a matter if you want to plug the DT hole here to pass over on a guy like Simmons. Final Grade: 97/100 

8. Cardinals: Jedrick Wills, OT, ALA 
Cardinals get an ultra athletic left/right tackle who can also slide guard without a problem. His mold is ideal for what you want in a tackle, and has fit into it like a glove, a true mauler with high athlete upside. A fixture on any offensive line for the next decade. Final Grade: 99/100

9. Jaguars: Derick Brown, DT, AUB 
The Jaguars sit pat and land one of the best players in the draft. I could definitely see a trade down here, but it is a bit hard to resist when a Suh clone with high character marks is sitting in your lap. A true game wrecker with a huge motor, he will fit right in to that line that will wreak havoc across the AFC south. Final Grade: 97/100

10. **Trade** Buccaneers: Andrew Thomas, OT, GEO
This could be an open season type pick, with the Broncos, Falcons, and Eagles also trying to trade up. Bucs #1 priority in this draft is protecting #12, so they go get an experienced starter at tackle who will plug in right away on either side of the Bucs line. I worry about if his technique and handling speed rushers. Final Grade: 89/100 

11. Jets: Mekhi Becton, OT, LOU 
It's almost too obvious that the Jets will probably sit back and let one of the tackles fall to him. Becton isn't a bad guy to settle on. An ultra athletic bully who commands the corner of the line. Worry about his inexperience within a pass first offense, and has some holes in his tape showing just that. Should be able to iron out whatever technique issues he has with good coaching. Ceiling for him doesn't exist. Final Grade: 91/100 

12. Raiders: CeeDee Lamb, WR, OKL
This could be any of the top three receivers honestly, it's just whichever one fits the Raider mold better. I feel like Lamb does just that. High character marks, productivity, and explosive playmaking ability. Unique slim yet powerful build, will be hard to tackle even in the NFL, and has a route tree that rivals Jeudy. Final Grade: 92/100 

13. 49ers: Jerry Jeudy, WR, ALA
Don't be surprised if this is a CB like Henderson or Terrell. 49ers get back to their roots with a big time receiver who excels in route running. Jeudy is the best route runner I have probably ever evaluated, and I think the questions of his physicality and size are pretty ridiculous. He would be the best receiver on that roster the moment he is drafted, and for Kyle Shanahan, that is exactly what he is looking for. Final Grade: 93/100

14. Browns: Ezra Cleveland, OT, BOI
Eagles might try and sneak up here for a WR, but I think the Browns don't want to risk losing their guy and take the productive tackle out of Boise. Admittedly, I am not a huge fan of Cleveland (harr harr) because of his rawness and limitations compared to others in the class. I do think he will be a reliable starter at whatever side you put him on though, just watch out when he goes up against elite talent, I think he could be in deep water early in his career. Final Grade: 82/100 

15. Broncos: Henry Ruggs, WR, ALA 
Could also be Jefferson here, I think they are very close talent wise and Denver likes them both. Would not be surprised if Denver trades up to get Ruggs either. Obvious burner in the mold of a Tyreek Hill, can score from anywhere, and is a freak athlete. He is a well rounded WR and is not limited by one thing. Size and durability are the only concern for me. Final Grade: 90/100 

16. Falcons: CJ Henderson, CB, FLO
Not sure if he lasts this long, but that is the way it is playing out in this mock. Lengthy corner who excels in zone coverage. Brings a unique explosive element to the game, both in tackling and in recovery. Needs to work on tackling form in the open field. Final Grade: 90/100 

17. **Trade** Vikings: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
Another trade spot here for multiple teams. Extremely productive, sneaky fast, explosive, physical and very polished. Has limits on his ceiling which drops him below the big three just a bit, but he fits into Diggs spot easily here. They get a hard worker who will bust his ass to master the craft. Final Grade: 89/100 

18. Dolphins: Austin Jackson, OT, USC: 
Dolphins get a pure LT to mold over the rebuild process and protect Justin Herbert. Jackson has a super high ceiling but absolutely needs to get stronger, the game against AJ Epenesa was proof positive of that. Could very well transition into a franchise LT in the near future. Final grade: 86/100

19. Raiders: Javon Kinlaw, DT, SC
If Kinlaw somehow falls this far, I think the Raiders would do flips to the podium. He is an elite player at this level, and feel like he could have easily gone in the top 10. Elite athleticism, strength, all tangled together to create a freak of a nose tackle. Final Grade: 93/100

20. Jaguars: AJ Terrell, CB, CLE
Another guy that should probably go higher, but that is just how this is all playing out. Jaguars get their lengthy number 1 corner to build around. Does not quite have the potential that the other corners in this class has, but he does have lenght, productivity, character, and a high football IQ to fit him into this spot as the Jaguars #1 corner. Final Grade: 86/100

21. Eagles: Denzel Mims, WR, BAY 
Eagles #1 goal this year is to revamp their receiving core and give Wentz some weapons. Mims fits the bill as a tall, athletic, creative, #1 WR. Should thrive within that Philly offense. Final Grade: 85/100 

22. Cowboys: Cesar Ruiz, C, MI
Have to replace Frederick and this is the guy to do it. The most talented interior offensive lineman not named Wirfs in this class. Should have no problem fitting in the ultra talented Cowboys offensive line, with a great combination of strength and athleticism that reminds me of Ryan Kalil. Final Grade: 85/100 

23. Patriots: Jordan Love, QB, UTS
They would have to be awfully tempted to grab Chaisson here, but I have to believe NE has to be considering the QB position in the first round. Jordan Love is a high ceiling project who gives you a bunch of mixed tape, and has some serious issues that need to be ironed out. I think Josh McDaniels will be up to the task, and the organization will put their faith in him to get the job done. Final Grade: 84/100 

24. Saints: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU 
The ultra athletic leader of the Tigers defense stays home and fills a desperate need at linebacker. Could play inside or out, with enough speed and smarts to start early and have a long career as the headliner of the Saints defense. Final Grade: 88/100 

25. Vikings: K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU 
The edge rusher they needed falls right down to the Vikings as they have a dream first round. Aldon Smith like ability, needs to functionally understand the position and be molded into a pass rusher as opposed to an athlete told to chase the QB. Should be able to be a 10+ sack guy year in and year out. Final Grade: 89/100 

26. Dolphins: Jonathan Taylor, RB, WIS
Dolphins get a feature back who can ease the burden of the offense off of Fitzpatrick/Hebert. Seriously talented, and if this was the 2005 draft probably would have gone in the top 5. Fumble issues obviously need to be corrected, workload is a concern, and the lack of pass catching needs to be fixed. Otherwise feed him the rock and watch him go. Could low key go much higher than this. Final grade: 91/100 

27. Seahawks: Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, PENN
This could very well just go to Jacksonville for Yannick Ngakoue, either way they need to address one of their lines. YGM is an ideally built defensive end who needs to sure up some technique issues, and probably improve his consistency, but he could develop into an elite edge defender. It certainly speaks to the talent of this draft if you can get him here. Final Grade: 89/100 

28. Ravens: Kenneth Murray, LB, OKL 
Ultra athletic sideline to sideline linebacker. Will make every aspect of the Ravens team speedy and explosive. Another one that would go higher in other drafts, but falls to the Ravens here. Final Grade: 87/100

29. Titans: AJ Epenesa, DE, IOW 
Another game wrecker on the defensive line, and the Titans steal him. Not as much upside or athleticism as the two that went before him, but he has refined technique, an ultra motor, and bully like strength. Final Grade: 87/100 

30. Packers: Isaiah Wilson, OT, GEO 
The other side of that Georgia offensive line goes here. Packers need sustainability at the position, and Isiah Wilson can bring just that. Not as productive as Thomas, but still a physical monster, and an underrated RT, who will have no problem transitioning into a staple on the offensive line. Probably has a higher ceiling than Thomas. Final Grade: 84/100 

31. 49ers: Josh Jones, OT, HOU
49ers have to start thinking about replacing Staley and this would be the spot to do it. Productive, experienced, and with great technique, Jones could slight right into the LT spot upon Staley's exit. Could probably kick into guard this year if needed, but much more of a tackle. 49ers get lucky in a string of awesome tackles. Final Grade: 85/100

32. Chiefs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU: 
The rich get richer on offense, though I suspect they might trade out here and try to get him or a corner in the early 2nd. CEH can do it all on the offensive side of the ball and is a unique offensive weapon to force defense to play up even further, digging their own graves for the Tyreek Hill explosion. Final Grade: 87/100 

 

 

[saX man]

A lot of these make a ton of sense.  Nice.

Have definitely heard the Mims to the Eagles buzz. 

Word on the street is that the Falcons are trying to trade up which could be for Okudah. 

 

[TheSpecialJuan]

Great stuff 

[saX man]

I also see Terrell and Ruiz going much higher than projected.  What I find super interesting is the CB talent still available in this scenario.

Fulton, Johnson, Gladney.  One should be there at 38. 

Also, Hamler and Tee Higgins aren't picked yet in this who are both absolute studs.  Would be hard to pass on them. 

A random thought--JK Dobbins could be the first RB taken in a surprise move by KC

[45catfan]

1 minute ago, saX man said:

I also see Terrell and Ruiz going much higher than projected.  What I find super interesting is the CB talent still available in this scenario.

Fulton, Johnson, Gladney.  One should be there at 38. 

Yep, and therefore having to wait until the 3rd round for a DT.  I hope Verge is wrong on the Panthers selection (nothing personal Verge).

[saX man]

2 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Yep, and therefore having to wait until the 3rd round for a DT.  I hope Verge is wrong on the Panthers selection (nothing personal Verge).

Cleveland and Gross-Matos are the ones that jump out to me in this Mock if I put myself in as the GM of those teams, CLE and SEA, they may be looking elsewhere.  I personally think the Zack Baun fit with Seattle is a match made in heaven to reshape that team.  They need a new chess piece that's an EDGE with some good speed. 

[Dex]

Well done.

[saX man]

@Verge Awesome stuff FYI.

To me, the biggest wildcard that will create a domino (after Tua) are two teams:

Arizona & Detroit

I just don't see Detroit getting much out of this if they get Okudah.  That entire FO and coaching crew's jobs are on the line and I just don't see what Okudah adds.  The media is all saying it's a fit but I see them making a big gamble (non QB wise) high.  Simmons-DET is my guess. 

With Arizona, Kyler Murray is publicly lobbying for a reunion with Lamb which I think is just soooo enticing to pair with Hopkins.  

[micnificent28]

Team Simmons... 100%

[Jesse]

Realistic mock and great scouting reports of the guys and fit. The only thing I disagree with is the Chiefs pick. I don't think an Andy Reid coached team has ever picked a RB in the first round. I think he's a great fit for the Chiefs passing game--I haven't seen his abilities in pass protection, however.

I do like the Vikings pick in a WR just because Kubiak's scheme always has a stud (Andre Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Diggs)

[MrBubba]

@Verge

I'd love Simmons.  But serious question,  if Tua on board, how hard does Marty think about it?  

[Thama]

27 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Yep, and therefore having to wait until the 3rd round for a DT.  I hope Verge is wrong on the Panthers selection (nothing personal Verge).

Outside of the absolute elite pass-rushing DTs, it's not a particularly valuable position. The NFL doesn't revolve around the interior run anymore, stopping the interior run is one of the least difficult tasks of a defense, and it's not hard to find big bodies that can do this adequately low in the draft or cheap through FA.

If we don't land Brown early, and I'm not convinced he's one of *those* guys, then we should absolutely address more valuable positions first. A couple of 4th-5th round picks would be just fine to address the interior of our DL. 

[t96]

8 minutes ago, MrBubba said:

@Verge

I'd love Simmons.  But serious question,  if Tua on board, how hard does Marty think about it?  

Unfortunately I think we like Herbert better. Unless we’ve done a tremendous job of keeping any interest in Tua under wraps. Probably no QB this year but who the hell knows...

 

I’m torn between Okudah, Simmons and Brown. We may have the decision made for us and it’s possible we don’t get any of them. All 3 would be game changing franchise players to build around on D. It’s just a matter of what position you want it to be at. I’m kinda leaning Simmons but it’s tough to watch either of the other two go somewhere else if they’re sitting there.

[45catfan]

4 minutes ago, Thama said:

Outside of the absolute elite pass-rushing DTs, it's not a particularly valuable position. The NFL doesn't revolve around the interior run anymore, stopping the interior run is one of the least difficult tasks of a defense, and it's not hard to find big bodies that can do this adequately low in the draft or cheap through FA.

If we don't land Brown early, and I'm not convinced he's one of *those* guys, then we should absolutely address more valuable positions first. A couple of 4th-5th round picks would be just fine to address the interior of our DL. 

I dunno, we were second to last in 2019.  Apparently the Panthers found it very difficult to stop the run.