What we think we know about the first 7 picks

[MHS831]

I think there are three assumptions to be made that are fairly accurate and consistent with needs.  I would like to add rumors to this thread that draw us closer to making some educated guesses about round 1.  I will change this page as we come to some degree of consensus, but it is hard for one person to keep up with all the rumors--although reading local sites and papers in each community helps.  I think we can eliminate some players and some teams to focus in on exactly who will be available.  

 

1.  Cincinnati Bengals:  Burrow QB  (the crystal ball is pretty clear on this one) This pick is about 99% certain.

2. Washington Redskins:  Young, DE (some have Rivera trying to move out of this pick, but at the end of the day, moving down and leaving Young on the table could get a GM fired.)  This pick is about 85% certain, maybe higher.

3. Detroit Lions:  Okudah, CB.  This is where it gets interesting.  The Lions are likely to trade back with the Phins or Bolts.  regardless, they will probably take CB Okudah.  However, they like Brown as well, and many in Detroit are comparing him to Suh.  I would not be surprised to see Brown if the Lions trade back or not, but again, the GM that leaves a pure shutdown CB of Okudah's caliber for a DT might lose his job.  Detroit could move farther back, however, say to #10 or so, but that trade would be expensive.  I say there is about an 85% chance the Lions end up with Okudah at #3 or a trade back to #5 or so.  There is a 15% they take Brown. (guestimates).

4. New York Giants:  Thomas, OT.  OK, Gettlemen will get offers to move back.  He can and still get his man.  However, Gettlemen used to race his picks to the podium without taking offers; this should be different.  A team looking for Tua will want to move up.  The Phins and the Bolts are the probable partners.  Either way, as long as the Giants stay in front of us, the NY writers are falling away from Simmons and moving toward the best day 1 Left Tackle in the draft.  Gettlemen has been catching a bit of heat about Jones--he needs to protect him.  Jones had a lot of fumbles and was sacked too much last year.  Getting the best, experienced, "plug and play" LT in the draft is the right move for NY.  Gettlemen likes his hog mollies.  I am about 80% sure that he takes a T.  Of the 4 top tackles, Becton or Thomas are the only LTs.  Gettlemen will take Thomas.

Note:  If we can trust the NY media (this makes complete sense for NY), then we can feel rather confident that Miami and the LA Chargers are going QB.  I am guessing that both teams moved up with Detroit and NY Giants, but it does not really matter because teams will still take the players identified here.  So let's say the following:

5. Miami: Dolphins  Tua. QB. The Dolphins have 38-year old QB Fitzpatrick under contract this season, a QB more than capable of transitioning to Tua when he is ready. The only question here?  Will Miami move up to assure the Chargers stay away from their guy?  Probably--they have the capital.  I would say that Miami is 95% sure to get a QB, and I would say that they are about 75% sure to get Tua--if that is who they want.  This could be the big shocker of the draft, with the Dolphins sitting tight and taking Herbert or Love.

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert QB.   Most of the LA writers and Charger reports say this:  The Chargers are not going to look for a QB in free agency.  They are either move up for Tua Tag... in a trade with Detroit or NY, or they are going to sit tight and take Herbert or Love.   It seems unlikely that they do not take a QB, but if that were to happen and they feel Tyrod Taylor is the man, they would take a LT, like Becton or Wirf. Smart money has them staying put if they have decided on Love/Herbert.  If they move up, then Miami probably takes Herbert or Love.  I would say that the Chargers are about 95% sure to end up with Tua, Herbert, or Love.

Note:  So reading the tabloids, websites, and boards from the other teams tells us a lot about what the fans and writers in these other cities are expecting their team to do.  I would bet that the first six picks in this speculation are accurate, only the order may deviate a bit.

The Panthers are now on the clock and in an interesting situation.  Here are their options:

• Draft Simmons, the best player on everyone's board and a real Swiss army knife for defensive coordinators
• Draft Brown, a Suh-like stud that will be a presence for years.
• Longshot:  Draft a T in the best OT draft in a while.  In fact, the best OT to come out of the draft in recent years (Wills) would still be available. 
• Longshot:  Draft a WR and give Bridgewater the best WR corps in the NFL
• Trade back:  Some teams will want Simmons--the last truly elite player left.  Secondly, starting with Arizona at #9, Cleveland at #10, the NY Jets at #11, and the Bucs at #14 (they want to keep Brady healthy) ALL having OT as a primary need, the Panthers will get offers to trade down.  Becton is the only pure LT left in the top 4;  Wirfs and Wills are RTs with the ability to transition.

Agree?  Disagree?  Did I miss something?

Just trying to give us some topics during this homebound mess.

 

[Valentino]

Gettleman will pick brown 

[MMA]

Give me Jeudy

[TheSpecialJuan]

Simmons is the ultimate "positionless player" as Matt Rhule would say. I think he's just too talented to pass up, if he's there at 7 we take him no matter what any other team offers to trade up. 

[LinvilleGorge]

It's a bit of a crap shoot after the first two picks IMO. The next handful of players could come off the board in just about any order and it wouldn't shock me. Then there's the ever present QB wildcard. Herbert, Tua, and Love could go top 5-10 or they could fall to the mid-1st or later. Who knows?

[SOJA]

I really think the phins are taking Herbert 

[beo]

god i really hope this happens and we end up with isaiah, dude has sky high potential.

[Carl Spackler]

The Browns passed up game-changing talents to trade down for more picks and Corey Coleman. Don’t be the Browns. Just pick one Brown. 

[Jesse]

I agree with this write up. Detroit needs to replace Slay and NY needs to protect Jones.The trickiest one is actually the Chargers IMO. What if the Chargers can acquire Cam? What if Miami takes Herbert and they don’t think Tua is 100%?

[kungfoodude]

5 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It's a bit of a crap shoot after the first two picks IMO. The next handful of players could come off the board in just about any order and it wouldn't shock me. Then there's the ever present QB wildcard. Herbert, Tua, and Love could go top 5-10 or they could fall to the mid-1st or later. Who knows?

The QB scramble is likely to dictate the top ten picks. We could see as many as four QB's picked or as little as two. 

I think that is the most difficult aspect to predict, which teams are going to go QB. If it is anything like the typical draft, once the second QB comes off the board, the run will be on.

[MHS831]

9 hours ago, Valentino said:

Gettleman will pick brown 

There is talk that way, but the reasons I provide are what the NY writers are saying--they are all starting to "lean" toward OT----but we know Gettlemen.

[MHS831]

9 hours ago, MMA said:

Give me Jeudy

Seriously, what do you think the odds are?  I read somewhere that Cee Dee Lamb is creeping above Jeudy--they think he is the better pro WR.  I have not looked into either, because I do not see it unless we trade down.

[MHS831]

8 hours ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

Simmons is the ultimate "positionless player" as Matt Rhule would say. I think he's just too talented to pass up, if he's there at 7 we take him no matter what any other team offers to trade up. 

Yeah, been saying this for 2 months (many of us have).  It simply makes too much sense.  Imagine transitioning to a nickel vs hurry up offenses with a LB?  Not having to sub?  Even though I doubt he plays inside, losing Luke sealed this decision.

In this scenario, he is simply the BPA.  Wills is probably next.  I want Wills, but have been saying Simmons since breaking down positions in January.  If Gettlemen does not take him, barring a trade, I do not see who else would.

[MHS831]

7 hours ago, SOJA said:

I really think the phins are taking Herbert 

If so, they will stay put and let the Chargers trade up.  However, that does not work well for SD, unless they go with Tyrod Taylor for a season... Not a way to thrill a fan base, is it?  The Bolts need a starting caliber QB, so if they trade up, they could take Herbert.  Get your popcorn ready.