The Javon Kinlaw Discussion

[onmyown]

5 hours ago, Shocker said:

He is a super nice guy off the field man,  this is a super bad post.  Close to racist.

Lol not even close

dumb comes in all colors

[ncsfinest21]

He looks good pass rushing but when it comes to DT we have to have someone that can stop the run and fill the gaps well. Star wasnt a good pass rusher but he filled gaps well and between he and KK we had great run stopping. Kinclaw is a beast but if pushed too wide teams will run against us at will.

[Mainter]

Kinlaw got lots of upside, but needs coaching. Watching his tape, he lacks moves beside the bull rush and spends way to much time on the ground.

[Panthero]

12 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I'm both intrigued and scared. I think he's boom or bust and I have no idea which one it's gonna be.

Listened the draft network podcast and this was their worry. He wasnt Brown except at his very best. Hed flash plays where hed murder people and then get cornholed for two or three plays. Also hasnt had great DL coaching, lacks a diverse moveset. 

Brown is not without problems but he projects as ready from day one, Kinlaw will at minimum take more time....assuming he takes the cosching. Which isnt a given with these guys. 

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, Mainter said:

Kinlaw got lots of upside, but needs coaching. Watching his tape, he lacks moves beside the bull rush and spends way to much time on the ground.

but that is why so many people are so high on him.

He was really productive at the college level even though he was raw, coaches get excited over what he could become.

Personally I think he has more risk then Brown, that is why I wouldn't pick him at 7 but with a trade down to that 10-12 range I wouldn't mind him.  

That extra draft pick you receive helps to mitigate some of the risk.

 

[MHS831]

Kinlaw in many ways reminds me of Nick Fairley.  However, this article from Detroit compares Brown to Suh--I do not see it.  I think Brown can be better.

Having said that, I still want Wills, but I think that is a bit of a long shot.  I think the pick will be Simmons.

This quote from an LSU player sums it up very nicely (what a mature quote from a 20-year old kid):  "He was pretty much doing whatever he wanted to do," LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire said. "And that’s pretty much the nature of the SEC. But a guy, when he just pops out on film, and then ultimately in a game, he’s someone I pretty much always had my eyes on, especially in run plays and ultimately knowing how fast he was coming off the ball. His whole presence on that defense was felt.”

Later, the Suh comparisons: "Sometimes with those big defensive linemen, and I think Suh was in this category, they make a ton of flash plays and they can be as disruptive as they want to be, but then there’s lulls where they just disappear," Nagy said. "Like this kid never disappears. He’s always playing his tail off. To me, that’s what makes him different.”

"https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2020/03/06/detroit-lions-nfl-draft-derrick-brown-auburn-pro-day/4974333002/

OK, about Kinlaw:  He is raw and still compares to Brown.  he was 350 lbs at a community college and worked his butt off to become the prototype DT he is now.  He does not have the techniques and the moves Brown has perfected yet---but he bested Brown's numbers in some areas.  Now, a lot depends on schemes (double teams) and offensive strategies used against the player, so do not rely on stats.  Kinlaw has the higher ceiling, but ceilings are about potential, not current talent.  Brown has more current talent, but with a year of coaching, Kinlaw could be the better player.

[TheProcess]

If picking at 7, then it's Brown. If trading down, then it's Kinlaw. It really should be that simple when talking these two.

However, if really talking a pick at 7, neither should be considered. If Okudah and Simmons are gone, then you take the best OT available. Better DT options later in draft than OT options. We need a very good OLine to run the 4 or 5 wide system of Brady.

[MHS831]

18 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

If picking at 7, then it's Brown. If trading down, then it's Kinlaw. It really should be that simple when talking these two.

However, if really talking a pick at 7, neither should be considered. If Okudah and Simmons are gone, then you take the best OT available. Better DT options later in draft than OT options. We need a very good OLine to run the 4 or 5 wide system of Brady.

This.   Well put.  If people are all torn up about 2020 needs--a season that may or may not be played (who knows) then I ask you to consider two facts about the game:

1.  Rookies, nearly all of them, are raw and learning.  Most are liabilities if they are forced into starting roles as rookies.  At the positions we have needs, not many "ball out" as rookies.  It may look good on paper, but you have to think longer term than 16 games at the end of the current year.  Start thinking of the draft as addressing needs or upgrading the 2021 roster--that is when these rookies will be playing their brand of professional football.   Fortunately, we have veterans in front of DT and OT now--not the best---but able bodies to carry any rookie into his sophomore NFL season.

2.  Teams struggle to find 3 kinds of players in the draft--these players are the most coveted, the most aligned with winning. 1) Quarterback.  2) Edge pass rushers such as defensive ends or 3-4 OLBs, and 3) pass protectors.  The most important pass protector is a LT.  The second most important pass protector is a RT.  The reason you need them?  They keep your only hope for winning a super bowl, the QB--your biggest investment, healthy. 

So having said that, let's look at our 2021 situation at those three positions.  It makes no sense to prioritize other positions if these three are not set.

1. Quarterback:  Bridgewater will be on the second year of a 3-year contract.  If he has done well, we have 2 years of stability at QB.  If not, we are drafting a QB.

2. Edge rushers:  We have Burns.  We have Weatherly.  We have Haynes and Miller.  Not exactly scary, but if Burns steps up in year 2, we could be OK.   Not happy, but we have role players and Burns' potential.

3. LT:  Okung will be 32 and his contract will expire.  Unlikely to return.  Greg Little has had a year to learn and thicken his skull-the fact that Okung was brought in is hardly and endorsement for Little.  Do they really assume he will be ready in 2021?  I do not buy it.  We are in position to draft a starting LT in the best T draft in recent memory.  Do we draft a DT and ignore 2021 altogether, hoping that Little will be ready or that we can find a LT in the draft or free agency?  That kind of thinking is how we have operated since Gross retired.

RT:  Moton's contract expires.  Moton has been  slightly above average to good, not great.  What if he pulls a Bradberry and wants top 5 money?  He would have the Panthers over a barrel if they have no plan B.  Frankly, I read an article when he was drafted that said, "Moton will be a serviceable tackle, but he would be a standout G."  I never forgot it.  How good would the OL be if we moved Moton inside to LG and drafted Wills or Wirfs?  

If we draft Wirfs or Wills, and take a player like Galimore or Blacklock in the second, is that not the smartest move?  Brown can play various techniques, and that makes him valuable, but he is not going to play every defensive snap in a rotation--maybe 50% of them.  A T plays them all.  I want my best players on the field all the time.  If the defense is on the field for 45% of a football game, and the player you draft is on the field for 50% of those snaps, our first round pick would be playing about 22.5% of the game, compared to an OT playing 45% of the game.

 

 

[Moo Daeng]

17 minutes ago, Rogue Panther said:

not really, the ball will be out of teddys hands in 2-3 seconds. even crappy OL can hold that long 

Of course it will. Every QB but one (Cousins) got rid of the ball between 2 and 3 seconds on average and he was at 3.01.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw

[MHS831]

20 minutes ago, Rogue Panther said:

not really, the ball will be out of teddys hands in 2-3 seconds. even crappy OL can hold that long 

And when we run the ball?

Imagine a defensive back knowing that our QB has to deliver the ball quickly.  I wonder if that would work in our favor or against us?  When Cam lost the long ball--no more deep passes, CBs did not worry about double moves---there were no progressions from the pocket.  Safeties jumped routes with no concern about the deep half. If the defense can shorten the field they cover, that is a win before the ball is snapped.   It limits every aspect of the offense. 

He will get rid of the ball more quickly and that may change how well the OL protects, but we still need the capacity to complete slow-developing plays as well. 

[Panthero]

14 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

This.   Well put.  If people are all torn up about 2020 needs--a season that may or may not be played (who knows) then I ask you to consider two facts about the game:

1.  Rookies, nearly all of them, are raw and learning.  Most are liabilities if they are forced into starting roles as rookies.  At the positions we have needs, not many "ball out" as rookies.  It may look good on paper, but you have to think longer term than 16 games at the end of the current year.  Start thinking of the draft as addressing needs or upgrading the 2021 roster--that is when these rookies will be playing their brand of professional football.   Fortunately, we have veterans in front of DT and OT now--not the best---but able bodies to carry any rookie into his sophomore NFL season.

2.  Teams struggle to find 3 kinds of players in the draft--these players are the most coveted, the most aligned with winning. 1) Quarterback.  2) Edge pass rushers such as defensive ends or 3-4 OLBs, and 3) pass protectors.  The most important pass protector is a LT.  The second most important pass protector is a RT.  The reason you need them?  They keep your only hope for winning a super bowl, the QB--your biggest investment, healthy. 

So having said that, let's look at our 2021 situation at those three positions.  It makes no sense to prioritize other positions if these three are not set.

1. Quarterback:  Bridgewater will be on the second year of a 3-year contract.  If he has done well, we have 2 years of stability at QB.  If not, we are drafting a QB.

2. Edge rushers:  We have Burns.  We have Weatherly.  We have Haynes and Miller.  Not exactly scary, but if Burns steps up in year 2, we could be OK.   Not happy, but we have role players and Burns' potential.

3. LT:  Okung will be 32 and his contract will expire.  Unlikely to return.  Greg Little has had a year to learn and thicken his skull-the fact that Okung was brought in is hardly and endorsement for Little.  Do they really assume he will be ready in 2021?  I do not buy it.  We are in position to draft a starting LT in the best T draft in recent memory.  Do we draft a DT and ignore 2021 altogether, hoping that Little will be ready or that we can find a LT in the draft or free agency?  That kind of thinking is how we have operated since Gross retired.

RT:  Moton's contract expires.  Moton has been  slightly above average to good, not great.  What if he pulls a Bradberry and wants top 5 money?  He would have the Panthers over a barrel if they have no plan B.  Frankly, I read an article when he was drafted that said, "Moton will be a serviceable tackle, but he would be a standout G."  I never forgot it.  How good would the OL be if we moved Moton inside to LG and drafted Wills or Wirfs?  

If we draft Wirfs or Wills, and take a player like Galimore or Blacklock in the second, is that not the smartest move?  Brown can play various techniques, and that makes him valuable, but he is not going to play every defensive snap in a rotation--maybe 50% of them.  A T plays them all.  I want my best players on the field all the time.  If the defense is on the field for 45% of a football game, and the player you draft is on the field for 50% of those snaps, our first round pick would be playing about 22.5% of the game, compared to an OT playing 45% of the game.

 

 

Underrated post. We need to draft a tackle,not just because Little may not pan out, but for leverage on Moton in negotiations. 

Either way we go, we'll have a big hole at either OT, LB, CB, DT come the 2021season. 

[45catfan]

21 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

This.   Well put.  If people are all torn up about 2020 needs--a season that may or may not be played (who knows) then I ask you to consider two facts about the game:

RT:  Moton's contract expires.  Moton has been  slightly above average to good, not great.  What if he pulls a Bradberry and wants top 5 money?  He would have the Panthers over a barrel if they have no plan B.  Frankly, I read an article when he was drafted that said, "Moton will be a serviceable tackle, but he would be a standout G."  I never forgot it.  How good would the OL be if we moved Moton inside to LG and drafted Wills or Wirfs?  

I've been saying this for I don't know how long.  Moton is a better OG than OT.  My only question is why force him to the left side?  If he has G/T flexibility why not keep his natural right side?   Projecting him to the left side out of perceived need isn't doing him or the team any favors.  Plus they are trying Little at  LG.  Let Little and Miller battle it out  for LG and Little will be that G/T flexible guy on the left side.  Honestly, I'm thinking that Daley may make a better RT (with plenty of reps) than Moton.

[Moo Daeng]

Just load up on lineman most of the  draft. 

 

I will edit this to say within reason.  But I'd say that when in doubt, pick the lineman.

[mrcompletely11]

3 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

Just load up on lineman most of the  draft. 

Hell yes