Many mocks have us trading back; the case for OT over DT

[MHS831]

I noticed some similarities as I scanned the mock drafts that entertain trades.  A large percentage of them have the Panthers trading out of #7.

Most all of them have the first round going this way--even if some trades infiltrate the order:

• Cincinnati:  Burrow QB
• Washington:  Young DE (I have read that they may not be able to trade out of this spot)
• Detroit:  Okudah CB
• NY Giants:  Simmons LB (I still think he goes OT---Hogmollies, remember? But most show Simmons going to NY)
• Miami:  Tua QB or Herbert QB
• LA Chargers:  Herbert QB or Tua QB

If that is the case, teams that are crying for an OT can now afford to shop--the Panthers are in an ideal situation to trade back.  But I have fallen in mad love with Wills, OT Bama.  I am not as eager to trade out as I was when I figured we would take Brown.  I value the LT spot (and WIlls can play there--he played RT with a left-handed QB).  Wills may not meet our most pressing need in 2020, but by 2021, LT could be our biggest need if we do not address it now.  We will never be in better position to draft a LT if we do not take the best T to come out of college in years.  In fact, the top 4 tackles in this year's draft are better than all of last year's OTs.  The following articles rate the value of a T over other positions.  For our purposes, OT vs DT:

• OT was ranked 3rd most important position, DT ranked 7th:  https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/nfl-position-importance-ranking-value-every-player-053117
• In this article, they break down position values into 5 tiers.  QB alone occupied the first tier, as OT and Edge rushers were the second tier.  DT was on the fifth of five tiers.  https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1556252-breaking-down-nfl-draft-positional-value-into-tiers#slide2
• Here is another that features QB, pass rushers, and LT at the top with DT in the middle:  http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000503855/article/ranking-each-positions-importance-from-quarterback-to-returner
• In this NFL.com article, they rank the positions (quality) in this year's draft.  WR (obviously) is #1, OT is #2.  DT is #3.  Interior OL is the weakest group. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001107981/article/2020-nfl-draft-ranking-each-position-group-in-this-years-class

So do you fill a need with the best DT in the draft when the DT position arguably has less value, or do you take a LT candidate in the best T draft in years?  To me, Brown makes sense.  Wills, if there, makes more long-term sense.

The case for taking Offensive Tackle:  Boy we all took a deep breath when we signed Okung, did we not? The emotional group were mad because it was a bad trade; and on paper, it was.  However, we got out of a bad contract (Turner) and took in an unguaranteed contract.  If Little wins the job, we can cut Okung and save a bunch.  If he does not, we have insurance for a year, hoping Little grows into the job.  However, it also means that the organization does not trust Little to do the job.  That is a red flag.  It means that we have no answer at LT, only questions.  On the other side, Moton has been good, just not great.  He will be in a contract year.  Daley--come on--he may have been drafted too high in the fifth last year.  He will probably be a G.  Do we have a long term answer at OT?  No.  We have temps and a raw, damaged boom or bust candidate. Moton will be re-signed with the Okung $, but will Little step up?  It does not look as if they think he will in 2020.  If that is the case, you draft one now.  You will never be in better position (hopefully) to take a T---we can trade back and still get a quality LT.  Here is the thing--compare this year's group of OTs to last year's group.  This season, we have 3 OTs that are better than the best OT in 2019.  LT is the second most important position in football.  Grab one in this market; with Moton on the other side, you have the best pair of OTs going.  What if Little comes around?  How much is a good OT worth on the trade market?  I would take Wills at #7 if he falls, cut  or trade Okung, and use the $$ to extend Moton.  If Little steps up, great.  He can compete or bring a first rounder in a trade.

The case for taking a defensive tackle:  Short is getting old and has been mediocre since he lost his north Star, but he still can do the job. Brown can play across the LOS and would allow the team to get out of the Short contract asap.  In fact, if they draft Brown and cut KK post June 1, they could save about $28m over the next two seasons.  Not that they are likely to do that, but it is an option.  Again, this is a short-term solution and Brown will be solid for a decade if he stays the course.  I would add that DT is a bigger need than OT on paper at this moment.

Conclusion:  I would not write off OT in this draft. I have been saying for a month that Wills is by far the best OT in any draft since Thomas went to Cleveland.  DT meets the most pressing need, but OT is the better value and meets a long term need.  Remember back in the day when we did not have to worry about the LT spot because we had Gross?  We could go back to those days.  Brown is good and hard to pass up, but Wills is better at OT than Brown is at DT., in my opinion.  Wills is ready to start day 1.  Okungs contract is unguaranteed.  We could trade/cut him, draft a DT, and sign a free agent or two.  Both Brown and Wills are top shelf players.  However, I feel more confident that I can still find some solid DTs to add to the two we have, where I do not feel that we can do that after the first round with OTs and we will never have this opportunity again.  The first six picks will go after 3 QBs, a DE and a CB.  That leaves us a T--Wirfs or Wills.  How do you pass that up?  How do you watch your QB getting blindsided and think, "But we got a great DT!"  There are other good DTs in this draft--Blacklock, for example.  If we stay put and don't trade back, the only sensible reason I can think of is that we are taking the best OT to come out in years---Wills.

 

 

 

 

 

[MHS831]

For those looking or hoping for their pick of OTs in the draft, the NY Giants are the only real threat, barring a trade up by someone desperate for a T.  This was posted five hours ago, concerning what the Giants are likely to do:

With that in mind, OddsChecker.com has compiled the latest FanDuel odds for what the Giants and Jets will do in the first round. (I did not include the Jets)

And here’s a look:

GIANTS

LB/S Isaiah Simmons +250

OT Tristan Wirfs +250

OT Mekhi Becton +390

OT Jedrick Wills +550

CB Jeff Okudah +1400 

DE Chase Young +1600

OT Andrew Thomas +2600

WR CeeDee Lamb +3800

(Conclusion:  If they can't get Simmons, they are taking a T)

[kungfoodude]

I'd be just as happy with drafting Willis, Thomas, Becton, Wirfs as I would be Brown/Kinlaw. 

 

We have one big advantage with being such a terrible roster, just about any talented draft pick will make us better.

[raleigh-panther]

I have said the same for years. And years. And years 

a decent LT and RT and our franchise QB would have not taken those hits in SB50 and that God awful display opening night 2016.

they got Okung as they knew they were getting Bridgewater and they also knew Turner and Newton were friends.  No  distractions in the locker room 

[Waldo]

Wills looks awesome but have we even shown any interest whatsoever? I know it's not a guarantee but meeting a top 10 prospect would at least show a little interest.

I have no idea which way we will go but I would be very happy with that pick and knowing the new staff was serious about long term roster building in a positive direction. 

[saX man]

I think the first wildcard is Detroit. I just don’t see them staying put and taking Okudah.  He’s continuously being mocked because they had the big Slay trade but I don’t see the point in just grabbing another CB for virtually the same defense. They need someone that changes that defense and will be the field general.  

I have to think they’re either trading down or will make the first surprise move.

[Daddy_Uncle]

100% for one of the top tackles. Good luck trying to convince other people on here who thinks it's okay to continue to ignore the position. We need a top tier offensive line for Brady's offense to work

[Wes21]

20 minutes ago, saX man said:

I think the first wildcard is Detroit. I just don’t see them staying put and taking Okudah.  He’s continuously being mocked because they had the big Slay trade but I don’t see the point in just grabbing another CB for virtually the same defense. They need someone that changes that defense and will be the field general.  

I have to think they’re either trading down or will make the first surprise move.

I'm interested in seeing what Washington does.  I know it seems like a no brainer to take Young, but that would be the 4th year in a row that they've used a 1st round pick on a defensive lineman.

Detroit is DEFINITELY a wildcard.  Except for season results, which will always suck.  That can be depended on year after year.

[Verge]

Could definitely see us trading back and still getting Wirfs or Beckton. 

[AU-panther]

If we decide we want a OT we have to be really careful about trading back.  The teams that we are trading back with might be trading up for a OT.

Best case for us in that situation is that no OT goes in the first 6 picks and of the 4 main tackle prospects we like 2-4 of them a lot.  In that situation we could trade back and still get one of them.

 

[Jared Patterson]

1 minute ago, Verge said:

Could definitely see us trading back and still getting Wirfs or Beckton. 

Verge, Are you hearing anything about the Giants? Would they take Wirfs or Wills?

[JARROD]

Well if you listen to reports about Rhule and his interaction with Hurney, coupled with comments from Tepper, the team is not in a win now mode. It’s on the five year plan to build a lasting solid program.

From what this guy says about talking with Rhule is that needs are great but you look at the long term significance and BPA for the next 4-6 years or more.

So is that Derrick Brown or is that an OT or QB? A QB makes total sense if one drops to us and so does  an OT. OT take time to grow and you can get 10 good years out of an OT. DT can be good immediately but what about 4-5 years down the road?  
 

Here’s one of the articles about Rhule, Tepper and Hurney comments:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.charlotteobserver.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/scott-fowler/article241872981.html

[cmichd]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

I noticed some similarities as I scanned the mock drafts that entertain trades.  A large percentage of them have the Panthers trading out of #7.

Most all of them have the first round going this way--even if some trades infiltrate the order:

• Cincinnati:  Burrow QB
• Washington:  Young DE (I have read that they may not be able to trade out of this spot)
• Detroit:  Okudah CB
• NY Giants:  Simmons LB (I still think he goes OT---Hogmollies, remember? But most show Simmons going to NY)
• Miami:  Tua QB or Herbert QB
• LA Chargers:  Herbert QB or Tua QB

If that is the case, teams that are crying for an OT can now afford to shop--the Panthers are in an ideal situation to trade back.  But I have fallen in mad love with Wills, OT Bama.  I am not as eager to trade out as I was when I figured we would take Brown.  I value the LT spot (and WIlls can play there--he played RT with a left-handed QB).  Wills may not meet our most pressing need in 2020, but by 2021, LT could be our biggest need if we do not address it now.  We will never be in better position to draft a LT if we do not take the best T to come out of college in years.  In fact, the top 4 tackles in this year's draft are better than all of last year's OTs.  The following articles rate the value of a T over other positions.  For our purposes, OT vs DT:

• OT was ranked 3rd most important position, DT ranked 7th:  https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/nfl-position-importance-ranking-value-every-player-053117
• In this article, they break down position values into 5 tiers.  QB alone occupied the first tier, as OT and Edge rushers were the second tier.  DT was on the fifth of five tiers.  https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1556252-breaking-down-nfl-draft-positional-value-into-tiers#slide2
• Here is another that features QB, pass rushers, and LT at the top with DT in the middle:  http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000503855/article/ranking-each-positions-importance-from-quarterback-to-returner
• In this NFL.com article, they rank the positions (quality) in this year's draft.  WR (obviously) is #1, OT is #2.  DT is #3.  Interior OL is the weakest group. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001107981/article/2020-nfl-draft-ranking-each-position-group-in-this-years-class

So do you fill a need with the best DT in the draft when the DT position arguably has less value, or do you take a LT candidate in the best T draft in years?  To me, Brown makes sense.  Wills, if there, makes more long-term sense.

The case for taking Offensive Tackle:  Boy we all took a deep breath when we signed Okung, did we not? The emotional group were mad because it was a bad trade; and on paper, it was.  However, we got out of a bad contract (Turner) and took in an unguaranteed contract.  If Little wins the job, we can cut Okung and save a bunch.  If he does not, we have insurance for a year, hoping Little grows into the job.  However, it also means that the organization does not trust Little to do the job.  That is a red flag.  It means that we have no answer at LT, only questions.  On the other side, Moton has been good, just not great.  He will be in a contract year.  Daley--come on--he may have been drafted too high in the fifth last year.  He will probably be a G.  Do we have a long term answer at OT?  No.  We have temps and a raw, damaged boom or bust candidate. Moton will be re-signed with the Okung $, but will Little step up?  It does not look as if they think he will in 2020.  If that is the case, you draft one now.  You will never be in better position (hopefully) to take a T---we can trade back and still get a quality LT.  Here is the thing--compare this year's group of OTs to last year's group.  This season, we have 3 OTs that are better than the best OT in 2019.  LT is the second most important position in football.  Grab one in this market; with Moton on the other side, you have the best pair of OTs going.  What if Little comes around?  How much is a good OT worth on the trade market?  I would take Wills at #7 if he falls, cut  or trade Okung, and use the $$ to extend Moton.  If Little steps up, great.  He can compete or bring a first rounder in a trade.

The case for taking a defensive tackle:  Short is getting old and has been mediocre since he lost his north Star, but he still can do the job. Brown can play across the LOS and would allow the team to get out of the Short contract asap.  In fact, if they draft Brown and cut KK post June 1, they could save about $28m over the next two seasons.  Not that they are likely to do that, but it is an option.  Again, this is a short-term solution and Brown will be solid for a decade if he stays the course.  I would add that DT is a bigger need than OT on paper at this moment.

Conclusion:  I would not write off OT in this draft. I have been saying for a month that Wills is by far the best OT in any draft since Thomas went to Cleveland.  DT meets the most pressing need, but OT is the better value and meets a long term need.  Remember back in the day when we did not have to worry about the LT spot because we had Gross?  We could go back to those days.  Brown is good and hard to pass up, but Wills is better at OT than Brown is at DT., in my opinion.  Wills is ready to start day 1.  Okungs contract is unguaranteed.  We could trade/cut him, draft a DT, and sign a free agent or two.  Both Brown and Wills are top shelf players.  However, I feel more confident that I can still find some solid DTs to add to the two we have, where I do not feel that we can do that after the first round with OTs and we will never have this opportunity again.  The first six picks will go after 3 QBs, a DE and a CB.  That leaves us a T--Wirfs or Wills.  How do you pass that up?  How do you watch your QB getting blindsided and think, "But we got a great DT!"  There are other good DTs in this draft--Blacklock, for example.  If we stay put and don't trade back, the only sensible reason I can think of is that we are taking the best OT to come out in years---Wills.

 

 

 

 

 

As I said DT's are a dime a dozen and you can find that diamond in the rough off a DT than you can an LT picked in the 5th to 7th round.  Grab one of those 4 and then get you a decent Dt in the 2nd and a livable 3rd round CB.  Defense is going to suck this year no matter what we do.  We will be in the playoffs in 3 years if we fix the OLine today and we do have 4 great ones sitting there in this draft for the taking.

[TheProcess]

I am perfectly fine taking a T with pick 7

In a trade down, what about Miami with pick 18 and next years first?  Miami could land a tackle to protect Tua. Panthers still have pick 18, but add another first next year. I'm not crazy about dropping this far, but that first next year could be huge.

With pick 18, players like Kinlaw or Andrew Thomas could fall. If not, you have players like Josh Jones, Xavier McKinney, CJ Henderson, Chaisson, Kenneth Murray to draft.