Tua Tagovailoa

[AU-panther]

23 minutes ago, stirs said:

If it were me, and it is not obviously, I have Teddy for 3 years, I have PJ, I have Grier.

I have a starter and 2 backups to work through to see who can run the offense.

Build the lines, LB, CB and OL ranks this season and see what I have at QB.

After this season, we will know if one of the 3 can run the offense or not.  I would say next season is our QB year

I totally agree with this, and the structure of Teddy's contract backs that up.  Also wasn't there some talk that TB was told he was the starter?

Possible teams thinking:

"Burrow and Tua are out of reach and we aren't crazy about Herbert or Love, will look at QB next year"

"Burrow is out of reach, not crazy about Herbert or Love, and don't trust Tua's medicals, will look at QB next year"

The wild card though is Tua, what if the teams loves him, is ok with the medicals but then he falls to 7?  At that point I could see them taking him, but I don't think that scenario is likely nor is it one they build their plans around.

 

 

[Khyber53]

1 hour ago, stirs said:

If it were me, and it is not obviously, I have Teddy for 3 years, I have PJ, I have Grier.

I have a starter and 2 backups to work through to see who can run the offense.

Build the lines, LB, CB and OL ranks this season and see what I have at QB.

After this season, we will know if one of the 3 can run the offense or not.  I would say next season is our QB year

There's some logic to that, for sure. I just think that if Hurts is still on the board at the 7th pick of the second round (or Love, Herbert, Tua or mmaybe even Fromm for some crazy reason), we'll make the switch to grab that guy now. Anyone shy of those and I think we'll go linebacker or CB.

 

[stirs]

3 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

There's some logic to that, for sure. I just think that if Hurts is still on the board at the 7th pick of the second round (or Love, Herbert, Tua or mmaybe even Fromm for some crazy reason), we'll make the switch to grab that guy now. Anyone shy of those and I think we'll go linebacker or CB.

 

I think this will be one of the more chaotic, stranger drafts we have seen.  Without the OTA's and people getting together, it will be all tape and combine.

Doubt we hear a lot about "late movers" and such as there is nothing to base that on.

I would not put anything past anybody.

 

I saw one mock I liked where Brown was available and Cleveland traded 10 for 7 to get Becton ahead of 8 and 9 picks.  7,8,9 all went OT and we got Brown at 10

 

First round will be very full of trades or people will be scared to death.  Not sure how it's gonna play out

[Snake]

I think I would trade down for a team that wanted him. Realistically if Bridgewater works out we are good and if he doesn't then next years class of QBs are just as good. Either way we need depth and getting a good pick next year and a extra this year might make more sense. 

[Khyber53]

1 hour ago, stirs said:

I think this will be one of the more chaotic, stranger drafts we have seen.  Without the OTA's and people getting together, it will be all tape and combine.

Doubt we hear a lot about "late movers" and such as there is nothing to base that on.

I would not put anything past anybody.

 

I saw one mock I liked where Brown was available and Cleveland traded 10 for 7 to get Becton ahead of 8 and 9 picks.  7,8,9 all went OT and we got Brown at 10

 

First round will be very full of trades or people will be scared to death.  Not sure how it's gonna play out

It's all fuss and blunder. I think every team knows who they want early on in the process. It's who they'll take instead that is what they research so heavily. Most GMs and scouts have a better idea of how the draft will shake out than any prognosticators you have read. Their only concern at this point is finding something to knock someone off their board ... any upsides have long been rated and advanced during the season, pro days (the few that were had) and the combine, along with the Senior Bowl. 

They aren't still really rooting out diamonds from the rough at this point, they are sitting around what if'ing and chasing down bad rumors.

The big thing about this draft is that, well, everyone is in the same boat when it comes to team prep. And that builds a bit of parity, but bad pickers will continue to make bad picks, bad teams will continue to not develop players, good teams will find their guys or make what's there work for them.

 

[Basbear]

On 4/7/2020 at 2:46 AM, RASTAN66 said:

Anyone know what % of QB's drafted in Round-1 end up making a Pro Bowl in their career?  How about Pro Bowl QB's as a % of all QB's drafted?

As an aside, who knew Tyrod Taylor and Tom Brady were drafted in the same round?

My guess about 1st round QBs is 30% make the probowl, total guess. It has limits even with all the players dropping out. Drafted, no idea 5% guess. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/      may hold your answers, its has a great history there.

 

[LinvilleGorge]

Elvis Grbac and Derek Anderson went to the Pro Bowl as a QB. It's really poor choice of a data point. Teddy went because other QBs that were ahead of him bowed out.

[RASTAN66]

3 minutes ago, Basbear said:

My guess about 1st round QBs is 30% make the probowl, total guess. It has limits even with all the players dropping out. Drafted, no idea 5% guess. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/      may hold your answers, its has a great history there.

 

Thanks.

The number is actually 38.8% of 1st-round QB's over a 20 year period.

Translates to 19 QB's of 237 in a 20 year time frame, or less than 1 per year.

We got one.

[LinvilleGorge]

Looking into it a little more, Teddy probably had the worst "Pro Bowl season" in quarterbacking history.

That season he was 22nd in the NFL in passing yards. Tied for 27th in passing TDs. 31st in TD percentage. Even in terms of efficiency he was borderline top 10. He was 10th in completion percentage. In terms of protecting the ball, he was middle of the pack finishing 17th in INT percentage. He was also middle of the pack in QBR finishing 18th. Attacking downfield? 24th in average yards per attempt. 26th in average yards per completion.

How in the fug did this guy go to the Pro Bowl, even as an alternate? LOL!

[Basbear]

1 minute ago, RASTAN66 said:

Thanks.

The number is actually 38.8% of 1st-round QB's over a 20 year period.

Translates to 19 QB's of 237 in a 20 year time frame, or less than 1 per year.

We got one.

NP

Thats not bad. I mean for the most part 1st round QBs go to bad teams and bad teams dont get players to the pro-bowl. Then players like Teddy and Lamar get traded up for that 1st year option late in the round. 

[Cpt slay a ho]

14 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Looking into it a little more, Teddy probably had the worst "Pro Bowl season" in quarterbacking history.

That season he was 22nd in the NFL in passing yards. Tied for 27th in passing TDs. 31st in TD percentage. Even in terms of efficiency he was borderline top 10. He was 10th in completion percentage. In terms of protecting the ball, he was middle of the pack finishing 17th in INT percentage. He was also middle of the pack in QBR finishing 18th. Attacking downfield? 24th in average yards per attempt. 26th in average yards per completion.

How in the fug did this guy go to the Pro Bowl, even as an alternate? LOL!

This is horrible, perfect example why not to put much stock into the pro bowl 

[RASTAN66]

Tepper is an absolute Master of the Universe as it goes to identifying value (talent) where others don't see it -- hence a $12 billion bankroll. 

Slice and dice it any way you like but Pro Bowl QB's who were drafted in Round 1 are as rare as hen's teeth --- and Teddy is a card carrying member of that exclusive group.

I guarantee you Tepp expects B.T. Teddy to make another Pro Bowl and I do too.

Write it down.

B.T.T. is a baller and is going to shock a whole bunch of you guys....

Get on board fellas, the train to title town will be departing soon!

[LinvilleGorge]

I think there's a stark difference between playing the financial paper game and identifying football talent.

[Shocker]

I am starting to believe Tua is going to drop and probably way past #7.  Watch the Saints get him.