Unemployment thread

[Harbingers]

2 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

The Fed is predicting up to 32% unemployment in Q2.

https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-unemployment-forecast-coronavirus-pandemic-millions-layoffs-record-rate-jobs-2020-3

To put that into perspective, unemployment peaked at around 25% during the Great Depression. It was just under 10% during the Great Recession. 

The unemployment numbers are way above what the feds listed already. For instance there is 11 million people who work in restaurants alone. They account for 4% of the GDP. Ya, not all them have gone to unemployment yet. But the feds posted what... 3.5? Let’s say realistically out of the 11 million .1%(I’d say probably .07-8) of those people people are still employed and working. Numbers don’t add up. 

[Wes21]

6 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

The unemployment numbers are way above what the feds listed already. For instance there is 11 million people who work in restaurants alone. They account for 4% of the GDP. Ya, not all them have gone to unemployment yet. But the feds posted what... 3.5? Let’s say realistically out of the 11 million .1%(I’d say probably .07-8) of those people people are still employed and working. Numbers don’t add up. 

How many of the 11 million are you suggesting are out of work?

[Harbingers]

51 minutes ago, Wes21 said:

How many of the 11 million are you suggesting are out of work?

11M x .1% at a generous outlook.
 

 

[CatTower]

The most recent Jobless report was only to March 21st, the next one on Thursday is going to be big.

[rayzor]

4 hours ago, thefuzz said:

Wait....you went to college before the dot com bubble and have 180k in student loan debt?

Not trying to pick on you at all, that just seems incredibly hard to do?

I guess I was an overachiever. Undergrad and grad school at a private university from '96 - '02.

[4Corners]

[Bytes]

4 hours ago, DeAngelo Beason said:

1971 was really the beginning of the true "credit" based economy.  While we still had a central bank, inflation was still partially kept in check by the price of gold.  Once that ended, inflation set in.  The US is fortunate that it is the primary currency of the IMF, so we get away with printing money way more than other countries, and since the US is the largest consumer nation, other countries simply cannot afford our currency 

So to be clear...are you saying that i flation on avg is higher now than it was prior to 1971?

[Harbingers]

13 hours ago, Wes21 said:

How many of the 11 million are you suggesting are out of work?

Edit: My apologies was grilling up a storm when I posted last night. 

1,100,000 out of 11,000,000 are probably still working. I’m not saying there isn’t a chunk still being paid right now as it is prudent for employers to keep employees on the payroll for the CARE Act.

But when I say working I mean 1-2(non-owner) chefs in the kitchen, 1-2 FoH people to manage togo orders. I don’t know about everywhere but from all of my friends in the service industry here that’s basically what’s happening right now.
 

The most financially stable Restaurants in the area too have completely shut their doors until mother’s day(hopefully). They are still paying their employees at a reduced rate so the employees can benefit from unemployment and they can benefit from CARE.

Frankly though CARE does jack poo for them(the employer or employee), except the loan forgiveness and 1,200 for employees. This is why we seriously need to raise and standardize the minimum wage(which won’t happen under a Republican President/Senate, I’m not saying this as a political jab. It’s just a simple reality). 10,000 in a “payroll” credit doesn’t do poo for a business paying 15,000 in payroll a week. 

A lot of folks I know are still lucky to be working in the kitchen but they are doing the job of a full kitchen team by themselves right now. And a lot of them aren’t used to the “catering” style of kitchens. But they are managing so far, if this poo keeps up till may-june there is going to be serious burnout. I mean fug Italy and us already have doctors/nurses dying from burnout. 

So we are looking at maybe 10% of the workforce still working, a lot still being paid right now but that doesn’t last forever and this is just restaurants. 

If they accurately report unemployment in April we could very well be looking at 30 million unemployed at the most generous outlook. Not saying they will. But that’s the reality right now.

And just to back that estimate up with a little “not just a fool posting in a message board”.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-may-n1172111
47 Million is the estimate. 

[DeAngelo Beason]

10 hours ago, Bytes said:

So to be clear...are you saying that i flation on avg is higher now than it was prior to 1971?

No, but we aren't comparing apples to apples either.  The US was in a period of intensely rapid expansion from 1913 -1971, vs, 1971 to now, and we also had the federal reserve act and the war effort mixed in to bring the average up drastically.  

[Tbe]

I wonder what “the line” will be for people. Are people really going to continue staying inside and not work after watching their jobs and limited savings disappear? 

[Harbingers]

8 minutes ago, Tbe said:

I wonder what “the line” will be for people. Are people really going to continue staying inside and not work after watching their jobs and limited savings disappear? 

Ask the national guard. 
 

The short answer in my opinion is no though, when people start not being able to buy food, poo will hit the fan. This stimulus will last about a month for the average person. 

[Harbingers]

16 minutes ago, bull123 said:

bet it is higher than that

but the huge difference here is that the gov are the ones shutting down all the jobs

Did you thank trump?

[Tbe]

42 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

Ask the national guard. 
 

The short answer in my opinion is no though, when people start not being able to buy food, poo will hit the fan. This stimulus will last about a month for the average person. 

There’s not enough national guard to keep everyone indoors.

I think the politics around the quarantine order are going to change rapidly when the average person starts to fear long term unemployment and/or any kind of food insecurity.

Like everything, no one really cares if low income people get the shaft. When middle and higher income people start feeling the pain, opinions and policy will change fast.

[thefuzz]

14 hours ago, rayzor said:

I guess I was an overachiever. Undergrad and grad school at a private university from '96 - '02.

Jesus man.

I think, if I were to be forced to take out college loans, that I would 100% start my career at CC, then transfer to a state school...or right now, I would probably go into the trades if I'm being completely honest.

Good luck buddy and Keep Pounding.