Random General Thoughts: Fascinating!

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

His point was that for us, in this division, now is the best time to be doing this given it needs to be done. 

Of course you still need to do it successfully. That does without saying. It won't happen if you don't try.

Well part of that was going to happen, regardless. Our "core" roster players from 2017-2019 were all set to be either nearing the end of their careers or entering "decision time" in their contracts. In a lot of ways, this was coming with or without a new owner/coaching staff/GM. 

And, let's be clear, the state of our roster is as much due to the current owner/coaching staff ripping it apart as it was our previous two GM's dramatic failures to consistently evaluate and acquire talent effectively over the past 4-5 seasons. We are paying for Gettleman and Hurney's poor moves and poor drafting right now. 

I am extremely skeptical about our owner's ability to run this franchise, I am extremely skeptical about Marty Hurney in general, and I am extremely skeptical about most of this coaching staff. I just sincerely hope I am as completely wrong about all of them as I was my initial take on drafting Cam Newton("Biggest mistake in franchise history!").

[kungfoodude]

8 minutes ago, MasterAwesome said:

Not sure I follow your logic in bold. You’re looking at it from a casual fan’s perspective rather than the perspective of the coaching staff/scouts. I guarantee you with the contracts they gave these guys, that they’re not considering them “JAG level players”...rather they think they are starter-level players that are capable of filling some of those “obvious holes” you mentioned. Bottom line is that if they were truly in tank mode, they would’ve signed some bandaid nobodies to minimal contracts and just taken the comp picks, rather than extend mid-tier contracts to players like Weatherly and Burris. I don’t know how you can make any arguments to the contrary other than some kind of blanket “Hurney is just so dumb and makes no sense!!!” statement.

Nothing the FO has done to this point screams “tank” to me...I don’t see the contradicting strategies that you do.

That is where we differ on those moves. Players like Weatherly/Burris are precisely what I am talking about. But that difference is going to be rooted in our specific perceptions of their market value and ceiling. The one that that was clear is that the commitment to them contractually was very small, so they obviously did not have great faith in them(extremely wise move, IMO). 

That is our core difference, you view them as "talented up and coming prospects" whereas I view them as former practice squad players and career backups. I don't hate them as depth pieces at market value, I don't like them as starting caliber players at higher than market value salaries.

We just disagree on the outlook. Time will tell what the reality is.

[Moo Daeng]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Well part of that was going to happen, regardless. Our "core" roster players from 2017-2019 were all set to be either nearing the end of their careers or entering "decision time" in their contracts. In a lot of ways, this was coming with or without a new owner/coaching staff/GM. 

And, let's be clear, the state of our roster is as much due to the current owner/coaching staff ripping it apart as it was our previous two GM's dramatic failures to consistently evaluate and acquire talent effectively over the past 4-5 seasons. We are paying for Gettleman and Hurney's poor moves and poor drafting right now. 

I am extremely skeptical about our owner's ability to run this franchise, I am extremely skeptical about Marty Hurney in general, and I am extremely skeptical about most of this coaching staff. I just sincerely hope I am as completely wrong about all of them as I was my initial take on drafting Cam Newton("Biggest mistake in franchise history!").

Given the understanding that this will take a few years I'm not that concerned with Hurney. Everything Tepper has said he has pretty much done and I have no doubt we will have a new GM for 2021 as he has alluded to. I also don't believe Hurney is calling any shots now.  I don't know how Tepper will do but he has put together a  verystrong group everywhere else when it comes to the front and back office. I'm not skeptical at all. I'm just letting it unfold.

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

Given the understanding that this will take a few years I'm not that concerned with Hurney. Everything Tepper has said he has pretty much done and I have no doubt we will have a new GM for 2021 as he has alluded to. I also don't believe Hurney is calling any shots now.  I don't know how Tepper will do but he has put together a  verystrong group everywhere else when it comes to the front and back office. I'm not skeptical at all. I'm just letting it unfold.

Well the rumor was Hurney wasn't calling the shots last run here either and it was JR. I didn't like how that went either.

If you hire a competent GM in the first place, you shouldn't need to dictate moves to him(as an owner or coach). 

It does concern me because some of our piss poor drafting in recent years is precisely why we are looking at the roster we are now. We really can't afford to keep whiffing on drafts because it extends that rebuilding effort another year+ every time we hose up a draft.

[Moo Daeng]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

Well the rumor was Hurney wasn't calling the shots last run here either and it was JR. I didn't like how that went either.

If you hire a competent GM in the first place, you shouldn't need to dictate moves to him(as an owner or coach). 

It does concern me because some of our piss poor drafting in recent years is precisely why we are looking at the roster we are now. We really can't afford to keep whiffing on drafts because it extends that rebuilding effort another year+ every time we hose up a draft.

I think we will judge the draft based on Ruhle and company not Hurney. Nothing that has happened since we hired Ruhle has been Hurneyesque IMO. He's just there to carry out the wishes of the coaching staff it seems. 

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Moo Daeng said:

I think we will judge the draft based on Ruhle and company not Hurney. Nothing that has happened since we hired Ruhle has been Hurneyesque IMO. He's just there to carry out the wishes of the coaching staff it seems. 

Well the mythical Hurney 2.0 was operating in non-Hurney fashion(largely) for the bulk of his second stint. I think without physically being there, we will not really ever know the true story. 

I just know that him still being involved doesn't inspire confidence. I do think that him being retained beyond 2020 will be a clear indicator that he is more than just a delivery vessel for the owners/coaching staff wishes. 

[top dawg]

37 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

That might make sense for the coaching staff, that isn't exactly a winning strategy for the NFL. See: Rivera, Ron.

Ron Rivera did not do what Rhule is doing, nor did he really have the power to do so. Plus, he never led a college program, nor was he intimately involved with a player's development, and likewise didn't have the intimate knowledge of those player's strengths and weaknesses at such an early stage. Mind you, Rhule may only be going about the way he is in order to transition to the NFL and get the ball rolling.

Rhule is doing things to an extent that no one has done before! This is one-of-a-kind!

[thefuzz]

They are certainly doing it differently than I would do it, or prefer them to do it....but that's their right.

I do think that the road Matt and Marty are taking has more speed bumps and pot holes than the road I would prefer, even if it saves you a couple miles.

[MasterAwesome]

6 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

That is where we differ on those moves. Players like Weatherly/Burris are precisely what I am talking about. But that difference is going to be rooted in our specific perceptions of their market value and ceiling. The one that that was clear is that the commitment to them contractually was very small, so they obviously did not have great faith in them(extremely wise move, IMO). 

That is our core difference, you view them as "talented up and coming prospects" whereas I view them as former practice squad players and career backups. I don't hate them as depth pieces at market value, I don't like them as starting caliber players at higher than market value salaries.

We just disagree on the outlook. Time will tell what the reality is.

But my point is that our perceptions are entirely irrelevant to whether the team intends to tank or rebuild. It’s their perception that matters. For example, if I’m the world’s biggest PJ Walker fan and I think he’s an elite talent, wayyyy better than Bridgewater, does that mean that the Panthers intend to start him over Bridgewater? No, because my perception on his talent has no bearing on what the team intends to do. I never claimed they were “talented up and coming prospects” anyways, I won’t presume to know the slightest thing about them. I’m saying the Panthers clearly have high hopes for those two considering the money they gave them.
 

We gave Bridgewater, Anderson, Burris, and Weatherly each multi-year, fairly decently sized contracts. To me, that does show faith and commitment in those players...I’m not sure what you would have to see to make you believe they have faith...like 5-year $30 million contracts? That’s just not very realistic for relatively unproven players like Burris and Weatherly. Because they are unproven, there is risk involved and so the smarter choice is to limit the scope of their contracts, but that doesn’t mean that the team doesn’t have high expectations for them. They were given enough money to suggest that they do indeed see these guys as more than JAG depth pieces.

You say their commitment was contractually small and so they didn’t have much faith in them and those types of signings suggest “tanking” to you...but why give them multi-million dollar contracts and lose compensatory picks when they could’ve signed some true JAGs to $1 million contracts if their objective was honestly to tank? Instead of trying to do some kind of mental gymnastics to rationalize that, the much more simple and obvious explanation is that they do not at all intend to tank. If you accept that premise, things make perfect sense.

[kungfoodude]

15 minutes ago, top dawg said:

Ron Rivera did not do what Rhule is doing, nor did he really have the power to do so. Plus, he never led a college program, nor was he intimately involved with a player's development, and likewise didn't have the intimate knowledge of those player's strengths and weaknesses at such an early stage. Mind you, Rhule may only be going about the way he is in order to transition to the NFL and get the ball rolling.

Rhule is doing things to an extent that no one has done before! This is one-of-a-kind!

Ron largely surrounded himself with guys he had known from playing with, coaching with, etc. Every coach does this, so nothing Rhule has done with the staff is spectacular(save the Brady hire). 

And he was directly involved with player development because he was a successful positional coach and coordinator in the NFL prior to his head coaching stint here. Rhule has done that, as well, but at the college level. 

I don't see any "one of a kind things" that he is doing. Steve Spurrier also leaned heavily on NFL veteran UF players at the Redskins to ease his transition. Chip Kelly did the same with Oregon players in Philly.

[top dawg]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Ron largely surrounded himself with guys he had known from playing with, coaching with, etc. Every coach does this, so nothing Rhule has done with the staff is spectacular(save the Brady hire). 

And he was directly involved with player development because he was a successful positional coach and coordinator in the NFL prior to his head coaching stint here. Rhule has done that, as well, but at the college level. 

I don't see any "one of a kind things" that he is doing. Steve Spurrier also leaned heavily on NFL veteran UF players at the Redskins to ease his transition. Chip Kelly did the same with Oregon players in Philly.

Bring the receipts!

[top dawg]

5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Ron largely surrounded himself with guys he had known from playing with, coaching with, etc. Every coach does this, so nothing Rhule has done with the staff is spectacular(save the Brady hire). 

And he was directly involved with player development because he was a successful positional coach and coordinator in the NFL prior to his head coaching stint here. Rhule has done that, as well, but at the college level. 

I don't see any "one of a kind things" that he is doing. Steve Spurrier also leaned heavily on NFL veteran UF players at the Redskins to ease his transition. Chip Kelly did the same with Oregon players in Philly.

Also, you're also kind of comparing apples to oranges as far as player development. Rhule has mixed the cake and is watching it rise, and hopefully eating it too!

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, MasterAwesome said:

But my point is that our perceptions are entirely irrelevant to whether the team intends to tank or rebuild. It’s their perception that matters. For example, if I’m the world’s biggest PJ Walker fan and I think he’s an elite talent, wayyyy better than Bridgewater, does that mean that the Panthers intend to start him over Bridgewater? No, because my perception on his talent has no bearing on what the team intends to do. I never claimed they were “talented up and coming prospects” anyways, I won’t presume to know the slightest thing about them. I’m saying the Panthers clearly have high hopes for those two considering the money they gave them.
 

We gave Bridgewater, Anderson, Burris, and Weatherly each multi-year, fairly decently sized contracts. To me, that does show faith and commitment in those players...I’m not sure what you would have to see to make you believe they have faith...like 5-year $30 million contracts? That’s just not very realistic for relatively unproven players like Burris and Weatherly. Because they are unproven, there is risk involved and so the smarter choice is to limit the scope of their contracts, but that doesn’t mean that the team doesn’t have high expectations for them. They were given enough money to suggest that they do indeed see these guys as more than JAG depth pieces.

You say their commitment was contractually small and so they didn’t have much faith in them and those types of signings suggest “tanking” to you...but why give them multi-million dollar contracts and lose compensatory picks when they could’ve signed some true JAGs to $1 million contracts if their objective was honestly to tank? Instead of trying to do some kind of mental gymnastics to rationalize that, the much more simple and obvious explanation is that they do not at all intend to tank. If you accept that premise, things make perfect sense.

I agree on Walker. I think he may end up beating out Bridgewater for the job. I also agree that our perception doesn't matter, it IS about what their perception is....which we also don't technically know. Nor would they likely say publicly if they were trying to tank.

If you look at those contracts you listed, almost all of them are structured as 1 or 2 year deals with easy outs after that first year or two. Even the Boston deal is structured that way. THAT is why I say it seems like a hedge. They are heavily front loaded with minimal cap impacts past 1 or 2 years. That does smell like hedging a bet to me, which I actually do agree with since I am not sold on most of those players either.

Now perhaps you understand why I am so perplexed by the moves they have made. I see a lot of JAGs and average to good players on really short term deals. 

It isn't all doom and gloom. We are set up now so we can hit the reset button in 2021 and again in 2022. That is just a strange way of "rebuilding" things, however.

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, top dawg said:

Bring the receipts!

Ron's background:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Rivera

Rhule's background:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Rhule

 

Spurrier signing/trading for Gators:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2002-03-04-0203040206-story,amp.html

Spurrier rosters(2002-2003):

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/

Chip Kelly signing/trading for Ducks:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000476358/article/chip-kelly-has-9-exoregon-players-on-his-philadelphia-roster%3FnetworkId=4595&site=.news&zone=story&zoneUrl=url%3Dstory&zoneKeys=s1%3Dstory&env&pageKeyValues=prtnr%3Dcollege-football

Kelly Eagles Rosters(2013-2015):

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/