2021 Comp pick formula has changed.

[kungfoodude]

7 hours ago, Toomers said:

So we should spend 13M to save 6M next year. Or for nothing save 2M?  For a player on the decline. How is that financially sound? 
 

    

I mean, we spent wildly on low end free agents and unproven coaches. I don't think money is really a concern for this owner. How financially sound is it to pay $4 mil/year for a CB/S that has never been paid more than $700k? How financially sound was it to pay $13 mil for a player with 6 career sacks? How financially sound was it to pay a game managing QB $63 mil in the middle of tanking?

Also, I just don't agree with the "player on the decline" take. Short certainly didn't look declining prior to his injury. Could he decline in the next two years, sure. Will he? TBD.

[kungfoodude]

6 hours ago, stbugs said:

As mentioned above, you are throwing away $13M and you save nothing. I repeat nothing. That dead cap is going to hit our cap space whether Short is on our team or not. The whole "saving" dead cap by keeping a player on the roster is a complete misunderstanding of the cap and contracts. Also, the CBA is signed, so the dead cap can be spread over two years again. That whole one year thing was based on no CBA.

I've posted this before:

Release Short now: Dead Cap $17M - Can be $6M in 2020 and $11M in 2021

Total Cap Hits: 2020 - $6M, 2021 - $11M

Cap Savings - 2020 - $13M, 2021 - $10M

Release Short in 2021: Dead Cap $17M, $6M dead cap in 2020 and $11M in 2021, New Cap $13M

Total Cap Hits: 2020 - $19.5M, 2021 - $11M

Cap Savings - 2020 - Nothing, 2021 - $10M

So, again, keeping him doesn't get rid of the $17M in dead cap that is on Short's contract regardless if he plays with us this year or not. That $6M and $11M this year and next are on the books, regardless if Short is on the team. The new cap Short gets is what we pay him for being on the team. Personally, I'd rather have Short's cap hits be $17M and not $30M.

One last time to make sure this is clear. You do not save any dead cap by having a player on the roster. The dead cap is the difference between money already paid out and what has already hit the salary cap. Since the money has already been paid out, dead cap can never be lowered.

That's fine but you aren't getting "nothing." You are getting a starting DT for $13 mil. Potentially an elite starting DT, depending on his return from injury. The trade for dumping him is that you have to actually replace him on the roster. If you don't care about the quality of starter you are getting, perhaps that $2-11 mil opened up might be fine to replace him.  But he is going to have to be replaced if you move on from him and the player that replaces him is going to cost a pretty good chunk of that cap space opened up, if not all of it. 

It is going to create one of two scenarios, neither of which is a huge benefit, IMO. You sign a FA or you have to draft ANOTHER DT. Right now, we literally only have two DT's on the roster including him. We are already in need of at least two DT's. I definitely don't want to be using 2-3 draft picks on DT's with an entire roster that needs to be filled. 

We aren't in dire cap space need currently. We all know Cam is going to get cut which will immediately open up $19 mil in cap space. If you want an immediate injection of cap space to use or rollover, cut Russell Okung. 0% of his $13 mil cap hit is guaranteed. Huge savings immediately. Makes tons of sense(other than the obvious problem of now needing another starter). 

[stbugs]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

That's fine but you aren't getting "nothing." You are getting a starting DT for $13 mil. Potentially an elite starting DT, depending on his return from injury. The trade for dumping him is that you have to actually replace him on the roster. If you don't care about the quality of starter you are getting, perhaps that $2-11 mil opened up might be fine to replace him.  But he is going to have to be replaced if you move on from him and the player that replaces him is going to cost a pretty good chunk of that cap space opened up, if not all of it. 

It is going to create one of two scenarios, neither of which is a huge benefit, IMO. You sign a FA or you have to draft ANOTHER DT. Right now, we literally only have two DT's on the roster including him. We are already in need of at least two DT's. I definitely don't want to be using 2-3 draft picks on DT's with an entire roster that needs to be filled. 

We aren't in dire cap space need currently. We all know Cam is going to get cut which will immediately open up $19 mil in cap space. If you want an immediate injection of cap space to use or rollover, cut Russell Okung. 0% of his $13 mil cap hit is guaranteed. Huge savings immediately. Makes tons of sense(other than the obvious problem of now needing another starter). 

He wasn’t elite in 2018. He missed all of 2019. He’s not getting back to where he was in 2017 let alone 2015.

I’m not saying we “need” the cap this year. You mentioned that we might have to spend to get to the 89% number and we don’t. Look at the Dolphins this year. They spent a ton because they’ve been rolling over extra cap to get to $90M in cap space this year. I may not like every player they signed but I’d rather do that in 2022 when we could have our rookie QB up to speed and we are contending in a division without Brady and Brees. Wasting $13M in cap space means that we can’t roll that over and splurge on say a Clowney or Mack, etc.

We are going to suck this year. I don’t really care what DTs we have. We aren’t beating the Saints. We aren’t beating the Falcons who we have trouble with even when we should be better. We aren’t beating a Brady led Buccaneers. We are multiple drafts away from competing so keep building and get ready to dominate the division in 2-3 years. 

[kungfoodude]

47 minutes ago, stbugs said:

He wasn’t elite in 2018. He missed all of 2019. He’s not getting back to where he was in 2017 let alone 2015.

I’m not saying we “need” the cap this year. You mentioned that we might have to spend to get to the 89% number and we don’t. Look at the Dolphins this year. They spent a ton because they’ve been rolling over extra cap to get to $90M in cap space this year. I may not like every player they signed but I’d rather do that in 2022 when we could have our rookie QB up to speed and we are contending in a division without Brady and Brees. Wasting $13M in cap space means that we can’t roll that over and splurge on say a Clowney or Mack, etc.

We are going to suck this year. I don’t really care what DTs we have. We aren’t beating the Saints. We aren’t beating the Falcons who we have trouble with even when we should be better. We aren’t beating a Brady led Buccaneers. We are multiple drafts away from competing so keep building and get ready to dominate the division in 2-3 years. 

I am not sure how that rolling 89% cap utilization number works. I tried to research it but the information didn't seem very clear. It's something to keep in mind because it may come into play or explain some of our moves in general but it may not even apply for the next two years or more. I am just not sure. 

But future cap space is not really a concern even with Short. We only have 23 players under contract for 2021(with a projected $88.9 mil in cap space) and 12 players under contract for 2022(with a projected $159.2 mil in cap space). Obviously some of that is likely to get eaten up by further free agency signings, draft picks, and potentially extending some "core" players(CMC, Moton, Moore, etc). 

Like you said, we are probably going to suck for a long time. It's really probably not relevant whether we keep him or not. He isn't in our future plans but he doesn't hurt us tremendously by staying around. I don't personally see us fielding a playoff caliber team for many years.

[Toomers]

3 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

I mean, we spent wildly on low end free agents and unproven coaches. I don't think money is really a concern for this owner. How financially sound is it to pay $4 mil/year for a CB/S that has never been paid more than $700k? How financially sound was it to pay $13 mil for a player with 6 career sacks? How financially sound was it to pay a game managing QB $63 mil in the middle of tanking?

Also, I just don't agree with the "player on the decline" take. Short certainly didn't look declining prior to his injury. Could he decline in the next two years, sure. Will he? TBD.

   All of those moves are questionable. For the same reason you don’t pay a DT for “possible” good play when it won’t matter. It’s one or the other. The team seems to think they can do both compete and rebuild. Which is a recipe for long term disaster. 
 

     The thought process should be the cap over the next 5 years. Not this year or next. Every dollar spent is lost. from the future. Would you rather pay 13M for a good DT this year, or in 2022? 

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, Toomers said:

   All of those moves are questionable. For the same reason you don’t pay a DT for “possible” good play when it won’t matter. It’s one or the other. The team seems to think they can do both compete and rebuild. Which is a recipe for long term disaster. 
 

     The thought process should be the cap over the next 5 years. Not this year or next. Every dollar spent is lost. from the future. Would you rather pay 13M for a good DT this year, or in 2022? 

As I stated in my reply to stbugs, we already are projected to have an extreme amount of cap space available next season and the season after. Cap space is not going to be a concern for the foreseeable future because our roster is pretty barren as far as "core" players. The more I look at our future situation, the more I think it truly doesn't matter if we keep him or not. We don't seem to be planning on spending that money this year, and if we do it will almost certainly not be for anyone that will be able to help us now or in the future. 

I don't particularly care when we are paying a good DT, because we are unlikely to be winning now or in 2022. 

[Toomers]

8 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

As I stated in my reply to stbugs, we already are projected to have an extreme amount of cap space available next season and the season after. Cap space is not going to be a concern for the foreseeable future because our roster is pretty barren as far as "core" players. The more I look at our future situation, the more I think it truly doesn't matter if we keep him or not. We don't seem to be planning on spending that money this year, and if we do it will almost certainly not be for anyone that will be able to help us now or in the future. 

I don't particularly care when we are paying a good DT, because we are unlikely to be winning now or in 2022. 

  Cap space is always a concern. Just because you have space, doesn’t mean you should waste money in the present that is more valuable in the future. What 30+ players are you acquiring for 89M? 
 

   That’s like saying it’s OK to give a bridge QB 40M because we have the space. 

[kungfoodude]

25 minutes ago, Toomers said:

  Cap space is always a concern. Just because you have space, doesn’t mean you should waste money in the present that is more valuable in the future. What 30+ players are you acquiring for 89M? 
 

   That’s like saying it’s OK to give a bridge QB 40M because we have the space. 

It isn't a concern because we don't really have a deep group of core players to even soak up the cap we have. If we knock it out of the park in the 2020 draft(unlikely), the 2019 draft class becomes great(unlikely), we sign CMC/Moton to huge contracts(who knows?) or we start spending in free agency like maniacs(who knows?) then it could be a concern. 

Even crushing the upcoming drafts isn't going to have much impact in 2021 or 2022. Signing CMC/Moton/etc to huge contracts would probably be foolish anyway, so if that happens it REALLY won't matter about the extra cap space. And if we start spending like drunken sailors in free agency for the next couple of years then we are almost certainly setting ourselves up for failure. 

My argument shifted from not wanting to get rid of Short because he is a valuable contributor more towards it just plain not mattering after I looked at our roster for 2021/2022. I am not seeing much that makes me think whatever we do for the next couple of years will result in anything equaling success in the short term or the long term. None of our current signings indicates that either. Nor does having Marty Hurney executing our draft in 2020. Maybe that is just a depressing way of looking at it but I am not seeing even the underlying structure of a future successful team. 

[Toomers]

7 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

It isn't a concern because we don't really have a deep group of core players to even soak up the cap we have. If we knock it out of the park in the 2020 draft(unlikely), the 2019 draft class becomes great(unlikely), we sign CMC/Moton to huge contracts(who knows?) or we start spending in free agency like maniacs(who knows?) then it could be a concern. 

Even crushing the upcoming drafts isn't going to have much impact in 2021 or 2022. Signing CMC/Moton/etc to huge contracts would probably be foolish anyway, so if that happens it REALLY won't matter about the extra cap space. And if we start spending like drunken sailors in free agency for the next couple of years then we are almost certainly setting ourselves up for failure. 

My argument shifted from not wanting to get rid of Short because he is a valuable contributor more towards it just plain not mattering after I looked at our roster for 2021/2022. I am not seeing much that makes me thing whatever we do for the next couple of years will result in anything equaling success in the short term or the long term. None of our current signings indicates that either. Nor does having Marty Hurney executing our draft in 2020. Maybe that is just a depressing way of looking at it but I am not seeing even the underlying structure of a future successful team. 

   I pretty much agree with all that. Just simply making the point that wasting money now WILL impact the future. And as you have stated, for no reason. 

[kungfoodude]

7 minutes ago, Toomers said:

   I pretty much agree with all that. Just simply making the point that wasting money now WILL impact the future. And as you have stated, for no reason. 

Well, I mean we have a lot of wasted money on our roster currently. Weatherly is wasted money, Burris is wasted money, Okung is wasted money, Paradis is wasted money etc, etc. 

At the end of the day it really won't matter, most likely. If we had a logical franchise with a clear goal, I would agree with you. That's just not the case, however. 

[stbugs]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

Like you said, we are probably going to suck for a long time. It's really probably not relevant whether we keep him or not. He isn't in our future plans but he doesn't hurt us tremendously by staying around. I don't personally see us fielding a playoff caliber team for many years.

This is why I don’t want to waste any more money on him. I’d rather sign every UDFA DT and see who’s hungry and performs well.

That 89% number is over 3 years (old CBA, no idea if any changes). We’ve rolled over $12M and $3M the past two years (or around that), so we’ve been in the 95-100% range. Rolling over Short’s money a couple years shouldn’t get us close. Heck with this year we may good. Just searched this link (https://www.stampedeblue.com/2019/1/21/18191412/the-colts-2019-salary-cap-situation-part-i-how-the-nfl-salary-cap-works) and it looks like 2017-2020 is the latest period and we are already in compliance with that.

Looks like we could roll over Short’s savings in 2020 and 2021 and probably wouldn’t have to worry about spending any rollover until 2022 or maybe 2023. That would be good timing if that’s the 2nd or 3rd year of a rookie QB.

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, stbugs said:

This is why I don’t want to waste any more money on him. I’d rather sign every UDFA DT and see who’s hungry and performs well.

That 89% number is over 3 years (old CBA, no idea if any changes). We’ve rolled over $12M and $3M the past two years (or around that), so we’ve been in the 95-100% range. Rolling over Short’s money a couple years shouldn’t get us close. Heck with this year we may good. Just searched this link (https://www.stampedeblue.com/2019/1/21/18191412/the-colts-2019-salary-cap-situation-part-i-how-the-nfl-salary-cap-works) and it looks like 2017-2020 is the latest period and we are already in compliance with that.

Looks like we could roll over Short’s savings in 2020 and 2021 and probably wouldn’t have to worry about spending any rollover until 2022 or maybe 2023. That would be good timing if that’s the 2nd or 3rd year of a rookie QB.

Can you still designate a post June 1 cut early with the new CBA? If so, I would think they would already have put him on that list by now. 

[stbugs]

10 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Can you still designate a post June 1 cut early with the new CBA? If so, I would think they would already have put him on that list by now. 

Yes. The dead cap all this year was only mentioned because the new CBA wasn’t in place. It is now. Honestly doesn’t really matter anyway. Cam won’t be on our cap so that’s another $19M free and if we release Short the cap space improves a couple million too. We aren’t spending another $21M in FA this year. We could but the bullet and then not have to worry about it next year and still have plenty of room. The term dead cap scares people as much as the word tank. I don’t think people realize that we are eating dead cap every year even if a player is playing. That’s how up front bonuses work. That’s why Short’s cash this year is $13M but his cap charge is $19M. That’s $6M of dead cap, but when a player is on the team that amount goes into a different table rather than the scary “dead cap” table. I truly think half this board thinks we are cutting a check/paying Matt Kalil this year.

[kungfoodude]

2 hours ago, stbugs said:

Yes. The dead cap all this year was only mentioned because the new CBA wasn’t in place. It is now. Honestly doesn’t really matter anyway. Cam won’t be on our cap so that’s another $19M free and if we release Short the cap space improves a couple million too. We aren’t spending another $21M in FA this year. We could but the bullet and then not have to worry about it next year and still have plenty of room. The term dead cap scares people as much as the word tank. I don’t think people realize that we are eating dead cap every year even if a player is playing. That’s how up front bonuses work. That’s why Short’s cash this year is $13M but his cap charge is $19M. That’s $6M of dead cap, but when a player is on the team that amount goes into a different table rather than the scary “dead cap” table. I truly think half this board thinks we are cutting a check/paying Matt Kalil this year.

Yeah, if I am not mistaken all that remaining bonus/guaranteed money is technically paid out at the time of release and the signing bonuses are most commonly paid in full at the actual time of signing. The "dead money" is just something they are allowed to do with the cap.