Corona Virus

[The NFL Shield At Midfield]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

The data has changed very little from the initial Chinese study. It was largely mirrored by the results in Italy and it has remained largely the same since that point. 

Continuing the economic assault on the lower class is going to have consequences. You can see the results of it in the protests at state capitals to end the quarantine and some of the rioting/looting after George Floyd's murder. People are just generally on edge and it's wearing on the public. 

The fact is that we aren't going to make any meaningful legislation to help the workers, the essential employees or any of the people that were really devastated by this. We chose unemployment instead of a payroll program(which likely would have been cheaper if you look at what happened in Europe), we chose vast massive bailouts to large corporations instead of meaningful programs for small businesses and we didn't make testing free or federally funded. So it's pretty clear now as it was before the coronavirus that our corrupt government doesn't really give a poo about us. 

At that rate, we may as well reopen the country and let people live their lives, with knowledge of the risks. If that doesn't happen, it is just going to accelerate the destruction of the lower class and increase their despair. Having 40+ million desperate, poverty stricken citizens is not going to end well. Having an entire generation without any job prospects or future aside from the gig economy and giant retailers is not going to end well. If you think the riots and looting that were happening during the protesting was an accident, you haven't been paying much attention. People without any prospects or hope aren't going to be that far from making that jump to just taking whatever poo they want to help them survive. 

This has absolutely ripped open major, underlying problems with American society and our system of government.  Whether or not anything changes remains to be seen.  I will say that the conversation does seem starkly different but that has to translate into action.

[Wyank]

I applied for unemployment two months ago and have yet to receive a payment. I've been approved.  Filed my biweekly reports.  No payments issued yet. So my first trip with unemployment has been fun times.

Edited June 7, 2020 by Wyank

[Ja Rhule]

10 minutes ago, Wyank said:

I applied for unemployment two months ago and have yet to receive a payment. I've been approved.  Filed my biweekly reports.  No payments issued yet. So my first trip with unemployment has been fun times.

Two months ago and nothing?!?!  That’s insane.

[panthers55]

12 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Exactly. We aren't going to do the things that would make things safer for the people and not place the undue burden on anyone but the populace. We are more than capable of funding testing in this country and the government paying for it. But that won't happen. Ever.

So, you may as well open back up. If the people are going to be forced to bear the entire burden of the epidemic, at least they will have the ability to decide for themselves how they want to handle it. 

 

That is one approach. The wrong one. The right one is continue to push for more tests and more contact tracking and refuse to participate until it is safe. You can open up all the restaurants you want. If people don't frequent them, it sends a clear message. The other one will hopefully be delivered in November.

[panthers55]

12 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

You are making an assumption that vaccine is coming. SARS 1 still does not have a vaccine to this day.

That unemployment is going to run out. And those people will not have jobs. Those small businesses that closed aren't going to re-open. If you think the government is going to take take of us, you are being willfully ignorant of the history of this country and it's attitudes and actions towards it citizens. 

As I said, I'm sick of it and I am done with it. If anything, the fact that all those things seem to have been largely abandoned by the populace speaks volumes. People are just over it.

We didn't produce vaccines for SARs 1 because it largely went away, didn't infect that many and economically it wasn't lucrative. For the Corona  there was billions in seed money spread out over the whole world and billions more for whoever delivers an effective vaccine. Plus 10 years in medical research is a lifetime.

They have already developed the vaccine. In fact there are a few different types. A few are traditional formulations of weakened or dead viruses while others are based on RNA strands of virus material which also work to create antibodies. This in addition to the studies using antibodies from recovered folks to directly pass them on to healthy people. The time needed is mostly spent in human trials making sure it works and doesn't infect healthy people causing exactly what is it designed to prevent. It appears that these are being shortened and modified for speed. So yes it is only a matter of time which is the point. 

I have a small business and I have been impacted personally. That doesn't mean I abandon any concern because it caused me economic hardship.. That is the point. We have more cases and people dying than any other country because of a me first screw the rest attitude you are endorsing. And it didn't, and doesn't have to be that way.  But you are not alone. As a population we are impulsive, impatient and self-absorbed. But that hardly should be seen as affirmation of of the ideals that founded this country. The idea that what I want is the most important thing, and that I earned it and don't owe anybody anything is a fairly new concept in our country. It has really been since the 80s that this had taken off as more and more people gained wealth.  Prior to that the emphasis was on what you could do to serve others rather than serve yourself. As you watch the protests consider that your dismissive attitudes about the elderly and medically fragile are not that different from the attitudes of those dismissing the concerns of minorities. An attitude suggesting that this is the way it is so let's just move on and if people die, that is their problem not mine.  

[45catfan]

14 hours ago, jfra78 said:

My daughters friend's family all took it "just because".  So, I believe there are others that are doing this as well.

"Perfectly healthy 'feeling' people are not getting tested to a large extent."

I acknowledge some healthy feeling people are getting tested, but I feel it's very low number overall. If you had to throw a percentage out there, what would it be?

My guess is some small number well under 1% of the population and even most of those are mandated by someone else (work related, elective surgeries, etc...).

[panthers55]

18 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

"Perfectly healthy 'feeling' people are not getting tested to a large extent."

I acknowledge some healthy feeling people are getting tested, but I feel it's very low number overall. If you had to throw a percentage out there, what would it be?

My guess is some small number well under 1% of the population and even most of those are mandated by someone else (work related, elective surgeries, etc...).

To your point, most testing stats report the number of tests administered which is the not the same as individuals tested. Because people who test positive are often tested regularly until they are negative and then sometimes tested again. So one person could be tested 4 times and counts in both categories. But it would be 4 tests and one person. That means that increased testing doesn't necessarily account for all the increases  in positive tests unless we  change how to account for everything instead of lumping them together to show a large testing aggregate number. 

[45catfan]

5 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

To your point, most testing stats report the number of tests administered which is the not the same as individuals tested. Because people who test positive are often tested regularly until they are negative and then sometimes tested again. So one person could be tested 4 times and counts in both categories. But it would be 4 tests and one person. That means that increased testing doesn't necessarily account for all the increases  in positive tests unless we  change how to account for everything instead of lumping them together to show a large testing aggregate number. 

That's the reason some people are throwing caution to the wind now, they don't see the dire numbers that were originally projected.  Was it intentional to help necessitate and enforce the lock down or just bad data?  I suppose a little of both.  As has been stated numerous times now, the lock down was to slow the initial spread so the health care system wouldn't get overwhelmed.  It didn't and outside of certain hot spots (NYC) may never would have even without the lock down.

To the average person, the information was about as scary as the coming into contact with an AIDS patient in the early 1980s...people were scared to sit on public toilet seats because they thought they could catch it.  Did that mean AIDS wasn't to be taken seriously?  No, it definitely needed to be, however the information at the time was not accurate.

All this to say, the data and information has to match to give the public the correct idea of what the real impact of the disease is.  The information about the most susceptible demographic has been correct along...the elderly and/or those with compromised immune systems.  The data, however, was very incorrect...especially the death rate.

[panthers55]

20 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

That's the reason some people are throwing caution to the wind now, they don't see the dire numbers that were originally projected.  Was it intentional to help necessitate and enforce the lock down or just bad data?  I suppose a little of both.  As has been stated numerous times now, the lock down was to slow the initial spread so the health care system wouldn't get overwhelmed.  It didn't and outside of certain hot spots (NYC) may never would have even without the lock down.

To the average person, the information was about as scary as the coming into contact with an AIDS patient in the early 1980s...people were scared to sit on public toilet seats because they thought they could catch it.  Did that mean AIDS wasn't to be taken seriously?  No, it definitely needed to be, however the information at the time was not accurate.

All this to say, the data and information has to match to give the public the correct idea of what the real impact of the disease is.  The information about the most susceptible demographic has been correct along...the elderly and/or those with compromised immune systems.  The data, however, was very incorrect...especially the death rate.

Projection rates are simply predictions about future numbers using current or previous data. The scary data was simply an extrapolation that if all 380 million Americans got the virus and the death rate was 1% then it would be 3-4 million dead or until we developed Herd immunity.  As we got more information and saw that the rate was lower we revised our numbers down. The present projection of 130,000 by August is based on many people social distancing and continued caution. But those numbers could also rise drastically as well if people just ignore the very things that have controlled the virus from getting out of hand in thr first place.

[kungfoodude]

2 hours ago, panthers55 said:

We didn't produce vaccines for SARs 1 because it largely went away, didn't infect that many and economically it wasn't lucrative. For the Corona  there was billions in seed money spread out over the whole world and billions more for whoever delivers an effective vaccine. Plus 10 years in medical research is a lifetime.

They have already developed the vaccine. In fact there are a few different types. A few are traditional formulations of weakened or dead viruses while others are based on RNA strands of virus material which also work to create antibodies. This in addition to the studies using antibodies from recovered folks to directly pass them on to healthy people. The time needed is mostly spent in human trials making sure it works and doesn't infect healthy people causing exactly what is it designed to prevent. It appears that these are being shortened and modified for speed. So yes it is only a matter of time which is the point. 

I have a small business and I have been impacted personally. That doesn't mean I abandon any concern because it caused me economic hardship.. That is the point. We have more cases and people dying than any other country because of a me first screw the rest attitude you are endorsing. And it didn't, and doesn't have to be that way.  But you are not alone. As a population we are impulsive, impatient and self-absorbed. But that hardly should be seen as affirmation of of the ideals that founded this country. The idea that what I want is the most important thing, and that I earned it and don't owe anybody anything is a fairly new concept in our country. It has really been since the 80s that this had taken off as more and more people gained wealth.  Prior to that the emphasis was on what you could do to serve others rather than serve yourself. As you watch the protests consider that your dismissive attitudes about the elderly and medically fragile are not that different from the attitudes of those dismissing the concerns of minorities. An attitude suggesting that this is the way it is so let's just move on and if people die, that is their problem not mine.  

We will see about the vaccine. I am skeptical that it will happen on the aggressive timeline that the most optimistic people seem to be suggested. Time will tell.

We aren't going to agree on the other points. The corona crisis is going to destroy more people's lives with the rampant poverty it is creating by our government's unbelievable mishandling of this entire episode. In theory, had we simply quarantined as was suggested this should have been over by now. It's pretty clear that didn't happen. All of these things you want to happen are extremely unlikely, although very achievable. We don't live in the idealized American country. It isn't real and it largely never has been. I hate to break it to you but the results in December will have little impact on most of the factors that create the underlying economic and social issues we are battling with. The level of corruption that exists here will not be rooted out easily and likely not at all. As citizens, we largely are to blame for that because of our apathy and inaction. 

So, yeah, fug it. Let's just get it over with.

[45catfan]

32 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

Projection rates are simply predictions about future numbers using current or previous data. The scary data was simply an extrapolation that if all 380 million Americans got the virus and the death rate was 1% then it would be 3-4 million dead or until we developed Herd immunity.  As we got more information and saw that the rate was lower we revised our numbers down. The present projection of 130,000 by August is based on many people social distancing and continued caution. But those numbers could also rise drastically as well if people just ignore the very things that have controlled the virus from getting out of hand in thr first place.

I see what you are saying, but people remember the original estimates of 1 to 2.2 million deaths.  Granted it was a projection, but way off base.   You have to understand the unintended consequences of badly projected numbers.  People understand that original death rate was grossly overestimated and also are seeing that if they are under 60 and healthy, the chances of them dying if caught is infinitely small.

Should they still be concerned for their fellow man and take precautions?  Sure, but don't expect them to feel they need to shelter in place any longer either.

Edited June 7, 2020 by 45catfan

[panthers55]

19 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

I see what you are saying, but people remember the original estimates of 1 to 2.2 million deaths.  Granted it was a projection, but way off base.   You have to understand the unintended consequences of badly projected numbers.  People understand that original death rate was grossly overestimated and also are seeing that if they are under 60 and healthy, the chances of them dying if caught is infinitely small.

Should they still be concerned for their fellow man and take precautions?  Sure, but don't expect them to feel they need to shelter in place any longer either.

It isn't just worrying about dying but also getting seriously sick which I am told is like suffocating slowly. As someone who scuba dives I have had that feeling a few times. I can't imagine feeling that way for days. And that is 20% of all people including folks of all ages.

[kungfoodude]

17 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

I see what you are saying, but people remember the original estimates of 1 to 2.2 million deaths.  Granted it was a projection, but way off base.   You have to understand the unintended consequences of badly projected numbers.  People understand that original death rate was grossly overestimated and also are seeing that if they are under 60 and healthy, the chances of them dying if caught is infinitely small.

Should they still be concerned for their fellow man and take precautions?  Sure, but don't expect them to feel they need to shelter in place any longer either.

People in high risk need to be very cautious and people need to be very cautious around them. Other than that, if we simply did testing and contact tracing frequently(two things which we could have paid for with our corporate bailouts), continue to use masks and clean(which should really be done anyway), and provide economically for people that have to be quarantined(maybe by using the payroll supplement systems that some European countries have been) then this damage could have been avoided.

But that hasn't and likely won't happen. It may be a pessimistic view but it is also a realistic one. The regular citizens will bear the burden of this, not the wealthy and not most corporations. That is the American reality 

[LinvilleGorge]

6 hours ago, The NFL Shield At Midfield said:

This has absolutely ripped open major, underlying problems with American society and our system of government.  Whether or not anything changes remains to be seen.  I will say that the conversation does seem starkly different but that has to translate into action.

I hope I'm wrong, but I honestly expect a poo ton of virtue signaling and posts by individuals and organizations alike in search of likes and reshares (and brand awareness marketing) but very little meaningful action taken.