Corona Virus

[4Corners]

11 hours ago, stratocatter said:

I am near Myrtle Beach, on the beach itself it was packed, same at entertainment spots.

Surely I am worried about it locally but if any visitors were exposed the virus is going to travel back home with them. Past that, I am just a civilian so predictions from me mean little to nothing.

America has decided the pandemic is over 

[CBDellinger]

1 hour ago, Wes21 said:

 

ICU beds "all over the country" were not past their capacity.  

Seems more like a great success.

[cookinbrak]

They should gave an "active cases" number in the daily count. Positive cases from March just skew the numbers.

[blackcat]

Went down to Isle of Palms a couple weeks ago, it's like the Rona never existed down there at all.  No masks, no social distancing, very weird coming from CLT.  Locally, my pool has opened up and while they published 'guidelines', nobody is following them.  I get we need to get back to some semblance of normal life and the economy has to ramp back up, but I also think that folks could be handling themselves in a manner that is more responsible.

[CBDellinger]

25 minutes ago, cookinbrak said:

They should gave an "active cases" number in the daily count. Positive cases from March just skew the numbers.

Agreed. 

Active cases, % of tests positive and current hospitalizations. 

[45catfan]

This is an interesting article that describes why the initial calculations were so dire and why they keep get revised.

As I've been saying for a while, the huge 'x' factor are those not tested that have had this virus and still are contracting it.  To use an analogy: it's like an iceberg...the tested are all you see above the waterline, the unknown is how large is the unseen portion? 

No doubt this is worse than a really bad flu season, but it isn't the Spanish flu either.   Likely, this will like a more serious Hong Kong flu. Before you poo that idea, remember people weren't required to get tested and how relatively lax the response was to that pandemic.  Therefore, the numbers are almost assuredly under-reported for that outbreak.
 

An Interesting Look at COVID-19

 

[45catfan]

In SC, the number of cases have gone up, but the daily number of deaths have stayed fairly constant averaging about 6.  That being said the mortality rate is slowly coming down.   Understand, we have a large sample size here and for the measuring stick being moved in any meaningful way is significant. 

We are down to 4.0% mortality of positive tests from 4.6% before widespread testing started a few weeks ago.  Again, when dealing with a sample this big (13,000 positive tests now) shrinking 0.6% is a big deal.

Edited June 5, 2020 by 45catfan

[onmyown]

What is the breaking point between a destroyed economy and virus exposure? This is getting pretty bad...lots of foreclosures and unemployment and a second wave causing ‘closing back ups is predicted to have a really bad outcome.

But our state is doing a soft reopening of everything with limited ours and our cases are going up, fast.

People just don’t listen, they don’t care. It’s like the Michigan virus protestors saying they should be able to decide what to do and no one has to tell them to social distance because that was obvious and they could handle it on their own.

In reality, people can’t handle it on their own. Is it just Americans? People are doing some real stupid poo right now. People can’t seem to fathom their choice affects other people.

[45catfan]

1 minute ago, onmyown said:

What is the breaking point between a destroyed economy and virus exposure? This is getting pretty bad...lots of foreclosures and unemployment and a second wave causing ‘closing back ups is predicted to have a really bad outcome.

But our state is doing a soft reopening of everything with limited ours and our cases are going up, fast.

People just don’t listen, they don’t care. It’s like the Michigan virus protestors saying they should be able to decide what to do and no one has to tell them to social distance because that was obvious and they could handle it on their own.

In reality, people can’t handle it on their own. Is it just Americans? People are doing some real stupid poo right now. People can’t seem to fathom their choice affects other people.

As with all deep questions, it requires a complex answer and I obviously don't have all of the insight.

First and foremost we need to look at the data, sift through the garbage and politically motivated.  There's enough studies being done that the picture is getting clearer now.  Then it's a risk/reward scenario reopening the economy.  Have guidelines that people should follow.  However, lock down didn't stop the virus, but we surely don't want to revisit the early days of the pandemic either.

Ultimately I think we keep awareness in the forefront and reopen the economy is the best road for going forward.  The virus will either burn itself out or we will get a vaccine.   In the meantime, we can't keep the country buttoned up any longer.  If it gets out of control again, unfortunately another stint in lock down may be required, but it probably worth the risk than staying in lock down indefinitely.

If you are high risk, TAKE PRECAUTION!  That has been and still is the main focus.  Infection rate and death rates are up for debate, but what data has unanimously shown is elderly people with pre-existing conditions should be the most cautious as the demographic most likely to succumb to the virus if contracting it at approximate 90% of all fatalities.

[Tbe]

1 hour ago, onmyown said:

What is the breaking point between a destroyed economy and virus exposure? This is getting pretty bad...lots of foreclosures and unemployment and a second wave causing ‘closing back ups is predicted to have a really bad outcome.

But our state is doing a soft reopening of everything with limited ours and our cases are going up, fast.

Yeah, it’s really hard for people to socially distance when they get desperate. In other words, It’s hard to social distance in a homeless shelter or when they’re forced to move in with extended family. 
 

It’s simple hierarchy of needs. The need for food and shelter will always out weigh the chance of getting sick. It’s easy to say people are dumb (and there is a lot of stupid), but we also don’t know what they’re up against.

[LinvilleGorge]

Thr Moderna vaccine is almost certainly going to be a flop. Definitely looking like a good old fashioned "pump and dump".

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/27/moderna-executives-cashed-out-shares-stock-price-soared/

[Brooklyn 3.0]

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Confirmed coronavirus cases are rising faster than ever

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(CNN)New cases of the novel coronavirus are rising faster than ever worldwide, at a rate of more than 100,000 a day over a seven-day average.

In April, new cases never topped 100,000 in one day, but since May 21, there have only been less than 100,000 on five days, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Newly reported cases reached a high of 130,400 on June 3.

The increase in case rates may be partially explained by increases in testing capacity, but there's still not enough testing to capture an accurate picture in many countries.

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• Coronavirus cases double every three weeks in North Carolina. Where your state stands.

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• Live updates Covid-19 hospitalizations nearly double across NYC

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  Some countries that passed their initial peak are seeing new clusters of infections after restrictions were eased, raising fears of a second wave

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Over 1,000 coronavirus deaths reported in the past 24 hours. Officials fear protests will drive up numbers

Not out of the woods yet. The protests will be an interesting addition soon.

[LinvilleGorge]

I'm absolutely dumbfounded at how quickly the vast majority of people just assumed we were over the worst of COVID and that any talk of a second wave or additional waves was just foolish talk, despite every virologist and epidemiologist on the planet strongly suggesting otherwise.

 

[Wolfcop]

https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-york-city-no-coronavirus-deaths