Corona Virus

[electro's horse]

1 hour ago, Ja Rhule said:

Only 176 new covid cases in NC.  Huge drop.

almost like things were closed down for a long weekend or something

[LinvilleGorge]

13 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

New York and New Jersey alone count for nearly 1/3 of the total National deaths.  Take that into account and the rest of the country is not nearly as bad off as the it would seem.  NYC botched its response horrendously from the beginning and the optics in the National death count as a result looks a lot more ominous than had NYC handled their part better.

So, since NY and NJ horribly botched their responses, the other 48 states should rush to botch theirs as badly as possible as soon as possible?

What kind of logic is this?

[CBDellinger]

16 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

New York and New Jersey alone count for nearly 1/3 of the total National deaths.  Take that into account and the rest of the country is not nearly as bad off as the it would seem.  NYC botched its response horrendously from the beginning and the optics in the National death count as a result looks a lot more ominous than had NYC handled their part better.

 

[45catfan]

4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

So, since NY and NJ horribly botched their responses, the other 48 states should rush to botch theirs as badly as possible as soon as possible?

What kind of logic is this?

No, responsible, tiered re-openings as we are doing.  A big difference managing the re-opening of states than a municipality that was negligent at the onset of the pandemic.  

[LinvilleGorge]

Just now, 45catfan said:

No, responsible, tiered re-openings as we are doing.

This I agree with. But that's not what a lot of the "muh freedoms" crowd are crying for. They want things back to normal right now. That would be disastrous.

[45catfan]

 

My bad, I actually low-balled the figure...it's actually closer to 40%, not 33%.  New York alone is almost 1/3.

TOTAL	1,668,257	508	98,068	30
New York	367,637	1,890	29,138	150
New Jersey	155,092	1,746	11,144	125

[LinvilleGorge]

Yes, we all know that the NYC metro area is the epicenter of this. Them being a hub of international travel with a very high population density makes that logical. But this isn't just a NYC problem. Go back to normal right now and you'll see mini-NYCs popping up all over the place in metro areas across the country.

Our best option to combat this thing going into the fall is going to be extensive testing with contact tracing. To make that feasible, we have to get the numbers a lot lower than they are currently. 

[45catfan]

5 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

This I agree with. But that's not what a lot of the "muh freedoms" crowd are crying for. They want things back to normal right now. That would be disastrous.

Two ideas here.  The first being that a large amount of press the "muh freedoms" folks are getting happen to be in states that are dragging their feet on re-opening.  Michigan and NC being two that are getting a lot of press.  Lock down at this point is not going to stop the spread anymore than it already has.  Lock down was to slow the spread and ultimately the goal was to keep the health care system from being overwhelmed in the initial wave. 

Secondly, the restrictions largely were let up prior to a major holiday.  Cabin fever along with festivities...yeah, people are going to temporarily go buck wild.  I suspect it will calm down some now that Memorial Day weekend has past and life is starting to get back to some degree of normalcy.

[45catfan]

17 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yes, we all know that the NYC metro area is the epicenter of this. Them being a hub of international travel with a very high population density makes that logical. But this isn't just a NYC problem. Go back to normal right now and you'll see mini-NYCs popping up all over the place in metro areas across the country.

Our best option to combat this thing going into the fall is going to be extensive testing with contact tracing. To make that feasible, we have to get the numbers a lot lower than they are currently. 

Testing for sure, but the problem is until a vaccine is found and widely distributed there will two classes of people, folks that have been exposed and those who will be.  Call me odd, but the number of confirmed cases increasing is not necessarily a bad thing, as long as the case numbers doesn't start to jump exponentially and as long as the daily death rates steadily declines.   We are much more likely to build up antibodies from one another than waiting for an approved vaccine to become widely available.  At best we are talking about next spring for a vaccine for the masses.

Precautions are still necessary because complete lack of them will cause new hot spots and an exponential jump in cases, but no matter how cautious we are, new cases are still going to happen.  As long as it is managed correctly the virus can make it's way through the population at a reduced/acceptable risk.  There are studies showing the virus is mutating to stay viable as more and more people have the antibodies.

The elderly and those with compromised immune system folks need to be the most cautious.  If anyone needs to heed the safety precautions 100% to the letter of the advisories, it would those folks.

[Paa Langfart]

6 hours ago, Jeremy Igo said:

I got tested for it yesterday. Woke up with a fever. The only reason I went and got tested was that I had planned on driving and visiting my elderly parents the very same day. Now I'm isolated waiting on the results.

 

Can confirm, the test really sucks. Feels like you inhaled a bunch of pool water. Has that same burn.

Wishing you the best Jeremy

 

oops just saw this

 

Quote

Test was negative. High five 

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by Paa Langfart

[LinvilleGorge]

32 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

 We are much more likely to build up antibodies from one another than waiting for an approved vaccine to become widely available.  At best we are talking about next spring for a vaccine for the masses.

We're not getting anywhere close to herd immunity levels by next year without exponential growth. 

I'm honestly not convinced there is long-term immunity to this disease from anti-bodies. That hasn't been the case with previous coronaviruses. Vaccine research is promising, but I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't a one time deal. It might not be an annual thing like the flu vaccine, but it might be something that's required say every 2-3 years to maintain sufficient immunity.

[Happy Panther]

On 5/25/2020 at 1:35 PM, GOAT said:

report after report, video after video, then silence. no mass outbreak or spike to follow. but before anyone can be called out, a new video will surface.

You gotta wait around two weeks. A "spike" seems to be developing in Georgia.

 

[45catfan]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

We're not getting anywhere close to herd immunity levels by next year without exponential growth. 

To an extent that's the reason I said increasing case numbers (as long as not exponential growth) is not necessarily a bad thing and the death rate doesn't go on the uptick.  True, we will not reach heard immunity, but when the next wave hits, the impact will be lessened as we know how to care for the most vulnerable and a sizable portion of the population has the antibodies.  I've seen a figure as high as 36% of those infected were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms.  We have no idea how many folks actually have had it, knew about it and didn't seek medical treatment or were unaware they had it at all.  We know lock down didn't stop the spread of the virus, so then it honestly can't be stopped by relative isolation.  If isolation isn't the answer, then we need to get on with life cautiously.  No need to tank livelihoods and business any further for some lesser risk that's not really quantifiable.  Again, proceed with caution, but we have to proceed.  

[Wes21]

5 minutes ago, Happy Panther said:

You gotta wait around two weeks. A "spike" seems to be developing in Georgia.

 

There was a "spike" reported in Georgia the day they reopened back up.  After seeing that, I'm not sure what to believe.