Corona Virus

[Ja Rhule]

7 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

And you think this is going to help stave off a housing market crash? That's just going to further stall the market. Some people are going to have to sell and it's going to be a total buyer's market. That's going to drive values down. Just because a credit crisis caused the last housing market downturn doesn't mean that's the only way a housing market downturn occurs.

Oh for sure.  Prior to 2008 everyone was getting approve for mortgage no matter what their credit score or income was.  I worked in real estate 6 years ago and companies became much more risk averse.  I think people who sit back and waiting for 2008 to happen will be very disappointed.  Especially if you are sitting on pile of cash and we are about to hit some major inflation.  You will lose some money.

[Wes21]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I think you're gonna be wrong. I don't think it will fall as steeply or as long as it did in the sub-prime mortgage crisis, but it's definitely going to contract. If you plan on selling in the next 2-3 years like we were, you better sell this summer.

I've told this story before but I will retell it in cliff notes version:

- VP of the company built a house on the lake for just over $300k, which was less than other people could have built it for because he's in construction and called in lots of favors

- He had the house sold at the TOP of the housing bubble for $900k

- Turns out he was the victim of one of those title stealing scams, and by the time they got the situation cleared up the housing market had crashed and the buyer was able to pull out of the deal

- He ended up selling the house close to what he built it for, which would have been a substantial loss for most people

[HPPantherzfan]

2 minutes ago, Ja Rhule said:

It won’t fall in Charlotte.  If that’s where you plan on buying.

I’m right outside of Greensboro, in the process of selling my house right now, inspection was Thursday.  Our realtor said higher priced homes are sitting a little longer when we put it in the market.  If 8 days to go under contract is proof things are getting bad then there is that I guess 8 days is a long time before all this hit.  On the other hand the wife and I had already purchased another house before this one went under contract, why you may ask?  Well the market we are moving to prices are still steadily increasing, houses are staying on the market an average of like 30 days and selling for 98% if asking.  As someone going through it right now, I’m not seeking it at all and my two different realtors say all indications remain for a strong housing market for the foreseeable future.  Just putting this out there to caution anyone wanting to sit on cash (taxes) and hope the market crashes.  It might not happen for a while

[Ja Rhule]

3 minutes ago, HPPantherzfan said:

I’m right outside of Greensboro, in the process of selling my house right now, inspection was Thursday.  Our realtor said higher priced homes are sitting a little longer when we put it in the market.  If 8 days to go under contract is proof things are getting bad then there is that I guess 8 days is a long time before all this hit.  On the other hand the wife and I had already purchased another house before this one went under contract, why you may ask?  Well the market we are moving to prices are still steadily increasing, houses are staying on the market an average of like 30 days and selling for 98% if asking.  As someone going through it right now, I’m not seeking it at all and my two different realtors say all indications remain for a strong housing market for the foreseeable future.  Just putting this out there to caution anyone wanting to sit on cash (taxes) and hope the market crashes.  It might not happen for a while

The inflation will grow much faster than people salaries. You will see house prices skyrocket in next 2-3 years.  My neighborhood had 8 homes go on sale in May and all 8 sold in first week.

[LinvilleGorge]

40 minutes ago, Ja Rhule said:

Oh for sure.  Prior to 2008 everyone was getting approve for mortgage no matter what their credit score or income was.  I worked in real estate 6 years ago and companies became much more risk averse.  I think people who sit back and waiting for 2008 to happen will be very disappointed.  Especially if you are sitting on pile of cash and we are about to hit some major inflation.  You will lose some money.

If we hit major inflation, that'll cause a housing market crash by itself. We've had ridiculously low interest rates for so long that it's caused housing prices to get to unsustainable levels without them. 

You take a $500k mortgage at today's rates and you're looking at a little over $2300 per month in principal and interest on a standard 30 year mortgage. At a 10% interest rate, that principal and interest nearly doubles to close to $4400.

[Ja Rhule]

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If we hit major inflation, that'll cause a housing market crash by itself. We've had ridiculously low interest rates for so long that it's caused housing prices to get to unsustainable levels without them. 

You take a $500k mortgage at today's rates and you're looking at a little over $2300 per month in principal and interest on a standard 30 year mortgage. At a 10% interest rate, that principal and interest nearly doubles to close to $4400.

My gosh... you and housing crash.  There won’t be a housing crash.  Interest rates will remain near zero for at least next 2 years.  Most companies increased minimum wages to $15-$20 in hour which will drive everyone pay up over period of few year (even high earners).  That in itself will cause inflation plus add COVID19 stimulus and you got a huge inflation waiting to happen in few years.

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, Ja Rhule said:

There won’t be a housing crash.

Okay.

I'm betting strongly otherwise. The vast majority of people are completely blind to the reality that the worst of this pandemic and it's economic effects are still ahead of us.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

Quote

 

A potential coronavirus vaccine developed in China appeared safe and able to generate an immune response after an early trial in more than 100 people, according to a new study.

The vaccine, called Ad5-nCoV, is being developed by the Chinese company CanSino Biologics, and was one of the first coronavirus vaccines to enter early human trials back in March. Now, there are more than 100 different coronavirus vaccines in development worldwide, with at least eight of those in the process of human trials.

 

 

Quote

On Monday (May 18), biotech company Moderna announced that 45 volunteers who received doses of its vaccine candidate, called mRNA-1273, developed antibodies within 15 days, and that the  level of antibodies seen in their blood was comparable to that seen in people who have recovered from COVID-19, Live Science previously reported.

 

Quote

... researchers at Oxford University announced that their vaccine candidate, called ChAdOx1-nCov19, will now be tested in advanced clinical trials involving more than 10,000 people, and doses could be available as early as this September.

More COVID 19 vaccine updates here:  https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-vaccine-adenovirus-china.html?

[LinvilleGorge]

Yep, early vaccination trials are looking promising, but it's still likely next summer at best before we're looking at widespread availability.

[Tbe]

I haven’t been hearing much on inflation. Deflation is what everyone is talking about. 
 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/03/coronavirus-us-deflation-falling-prices-new-economic-risk/3070084001/

[SmokinwithWilly]

1 hour ago, Ja Rhule said:

It won’t fall in Charlotte.  If that’s where you plan on buying.

I'm out in the Pacific northwest. Prices here are overinflated as is right now.

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, Tbe said:

I haven’t been hearing much on inflation. Deflation is what everyone is talking about. 
 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/03/coronavirus-us-deflation-falling-prices-new-economic-risk/3070084001/

Everyone is just throwing mud at the wall because these are completely uncharted waters and so much depends on how the pandemic plays out. I'm betting very heavily on this playing itself out for another year with the worst still ahead of us this fall/winter. All of the optimism is betting on the worst of it already being behind us. The history of respiratory disease pandemics isn't on their side.

[jfra78]

7 hours ago, Ja Rhule said:

Nah, it won’t this time.  You need to have ~740 score to buy a house today.  The banks are being very careful.

Not true

[Ja Rhule]

42 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

Not true

Literally just posted 2 articles hours ago.