Corona Virus

[electro's horse]

1 hour ago, Proudiddy said:

Anyone think this could be the second wave we're currently in?  I've read many an article and even know some people directly who believe they may have had it back in December.  

 

People are fuging stupid and have no idea what they're talking about.

every one of my patients simultaneously think this is fake, and that they actually had it in december.

im in rural tennessee 

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, Proudiddy said:

I just find it hard to believe that as much as people freely travel that it wasn't here much earlier.  I suspect in a place like NY, that it was slowly percolating to the point that it got to now, and that took time.

What about this is so hard to believe? It's a novel virus. It likely started in China in October or November. It was likely fairly widespread in China by the time they reported to the WHO in late December. Still, that means thousands of cases. NY's outbreak was traced to Europe, not China. The vast majority of our outbreak traces to NY. With the high contagiousness of this virus, it doesn't "slowly percolate".

[LinvilleGorge]

The Moderna vaccine trial is going very well.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/moderna-vaccine-human-trial-produces-133828334.html

 

[Proudiddy]

58 minutes ago, electro's horse said:

People are fuging stupid and have no idea what they're talking about.

every one of my patients simultaneously think this is fake, and that they actually had it in december.

im in rural tennessee 

Yeah, was just posing the possibility, mostly out of hope for a best-case scenario.  Still, in realizing the full scope of what's going on, my wife is a therapist at a SNF and if I went off of what has taken place there, it is clear they are dealing with something new that wasn't around in December.  But yeah, my curiosity stemmed from both stories of people I know - a college classmate's children both came down with a horrible upper respiratory infection that required hospitalization and oxygen supplementation back in December, and the doctors could not figure out what it was, as both tested negative for flu and eventually fully recovered - and an article I read in the New York Times recently about multiple similar cases in California from late last year...  combining those things with the news that they have confirmed some people died of the virus as early as February.  

Again, I guess it's just wishful thinking - hoping that we're past the peak...

33 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

What about this is so hard to believe? It's a novel virus. It likely started in China in October or November. It was likely fairly widespread in China by the time they reported to the WHO in late December. Still, that means thousands of cases. NY's outbreak was traced to Europe, not China. The vast majority of our outbreak traces to NY. With the high contagiousness of this virus, it doesn't "slowly percolate".

Just wishful thinking, man...  maybe "hard to believe" wasn't the right phrasing...  I want to believe it was here earlier so that we're likely through the worst of it.  And I'm well aware of the contagiousness, as that is what separates it from everything else we're accustomed to at this point, but I was saying if looking at it from the possibility that this is the second wave, then couldn't it be possible that there were a few cases here and there late last year, but it took time to spread to such a degree that we now see in NY?  And as far as the travel thing, you're right...  I forgot when I wrote that, most of the US strains came from Italy...  

Regardless, I'm not purporting to be an expert of have any more knowledge about it then the next man...  again, I was just asking for the sake of hope, that we're on the other side of it.

[LinvilleGorge]

30 minutes ago, Proudiddy said:

Yeah, was just posing the possibility, mostly out of hope for a best-case scenario.  Still, in realizing the full scope of what's going on, my wife is a therapist at a SNF and if I went off of what has taken place there, it is clear they are dealing with something new that wasn't around in December.  But yeah, my curiosity stemmed from both stories of people I know - a college classmate's children both came down with a horrible upper respiratory infection that required hospitalization and oxygen supplementation back in December, and the doctors could not figure out what it was, as both tested negative for flu and eventually fully recovered - and an article I read in the New York Times recently about multiple similar cases in California from late last year...  combining those things with the news that they have confirmed some people died of the virus as early as February.  

Again, I guess it's just wishful thinking - hoping that we're past the peak...

Just wishful thinking, man...  maybe "hard to believe" wasn't the right phrasing...  I want to believe it was here earlier so that we're likely through the worst of it.  And I'm well aware of the contagiousness, as that is what separates it from everything else we're accustomed to at this point, but I was saying if looking at it from the possibility that this is the second wave, then couldn't it be possible that there were a few cases here and there late last year, but it took time to spread to such a degree that we now see in NY?  And as far as the travel thing, you're right...  I forgot when I wrote that, most of the US strains came from Italy...  

Regardless, I'm not purporting to be an expert of have any more knowledge about it then the next man...  again, I was just asking for the sake of hope, that we're on the other side of it.

The thing that concerns me most is that everyone is betting on that we're on the other side of it. Everyone expects this quick bounceback. No one is preparing for the economic impact and effect of a second wave.The second wave in the fall is practically inevitable. The only way to prevent an even bigger economic fallout is to develop some highly effective, widely available therapeutics in the meantime because a vaccine won't be ready in time to prevent it even in the best possible vaccine development case.

I can see it now. The second wave hits this fall and everyone is screaming and crying about "who could've predicted this??!!!" Well, just like the initial arrival of this pandemic on our shores, the answer is practically every virologist and epidemiologist on the planet. 

[Paa Langfart]

2nd wave began with reopening poo up.  We're going to see tshtf in a month.

 

God or a facsimile save folks in the medical community and our emt types cause no one else will.

[LinvilleGorge]

17 hours ago, stirs said:

Numbers are numbers, no matter who touts or ignores.  Now, if the numbers are wrong....

 

Overall curve is definitely trending down

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This virus is much less contagious in warmer temperatures. It will continue to trend down over the summer. We NEED it to continue to trend down. If it doesn't, the second wave in the fall will be a helluva lot worse.

[CRA]

Spanish Flu's 2nd and 3rd waves were the deadly ones.   Which is the scary part.   2nd wave really hit after that summer. 

I guess one good thing is scientist, at least at this point, don't believe COVID mutates like some others have.  I think it was really a mutated 2nd wave of the Spanish Flu that really did the damage. 

[LinvilleGorge]

10 minutes ago, Paa Langfart said:

2nd wave began with reopening poo up.  We're going to see tshtf in a month.

I honestly doubt it. I think there will probably be enough people who maintain social distancing standards, wear masks, etc. when combined with the naturally reduced contagiousness of the virus in warmer temps that it will postpone the second wave until the fall.

[electro's horse]

the economy was tanking anyway before corona, they were just propping it up with rate cuts and overnight purchases. 

the US was faced with two problems: prevent the spread of the virus and salvage as much of the economy as possible. 

it has somehow failed to do either

[electro's horse]

here's a big huge article from a major newspaper that interviews a ton of serious people about just how fuged up trump's handling of all this has been

https://www.ft.com/content/97dc7de6-940b-11ea-abcd-371e24b679ed

im still reading it but basically every quote is horrifying

[stirs]

19 minutes ago, electro's horse said:

the economy was tanking anyway before corona, they were just propping it up with rate cuts and overnight purchases. 

the US was faced with two problems: prevent the spread of the virus and salvage as much of the economy as possible. 

it has somehow failed to do either

How would you suggest to "salvage" the economy and still keep people at home?

This is a damned if you do, damned if you don't thing.  Walking the line between the two is the push/pull here.  Both sides saying too much of one and not enough of the other.  It is not a simple formula in uncharted waters.

[CRA]

Just now, stirs said:

How would you suggest to "salvage" the economy and still keep people at home?

This is a damned if you do, damned if you don't thing.  Walking the line between the two is the push/pull here.  Both sides saying too much of one and not enough of the other.  It is not a simple formula in uncharted waters.

hopefully when this is all over....we have a better prepared approach for the next pandemic.   We didn't have to be in the position we currently are in. 

and there will be more.  We frankly are lucky COVID isn't more lethal.  I mean imagine if the next one has a SARS mortality rate and spreads like COVID.  The American superpower would be screwed based on how poorly we handled this. 

Maybe while we are over in S. Korea (our ally) teaching them about nukes and military drills.....we take some notes from them on how to address a pandemic properly. 

[electro's horse]

8 minutes ago, stirs said:

How would you suggest to "salvage" the economy and still keep people at home?

legitimate stimulus for people that can't work from home would do wonders. 

pair it with a jobs guarantee/work program afterwards so you can murder the gig economy once and for all

this was a once in a generation opportunity to remake the american economy moving forward and instead states are forcing people to either go back into a pandemic or starve and the president is telling people to inject bleach

Edited May 18, 2020 by electro's horse