Corona Virus

[cookinbrak]

Girl on another board went out to eat in Texas. Had to have reservations, 4 tables inside and 4 on the patio. Temp checked at the door and sprayed with disinfectant. Access the menu on your phone. Wear gloves and mask until your food arrives. Shine that noise.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

Bit by bit, day by day the economic pressure is building on individuals and businesses to revert to old habits.  Not saying things will be 100 percent back to normal anytime soon, but humans are social creatures and the need to make a buck is ever present and growing.  Wide spread restrictions remaining in place more than another month or two without a huge uptick in the rate of virus deaths is going to be difficult for the government to enforce.  

[SmokinwithWilly]

I think all we have really done through this shutdown is slow the spread so our medical system doesnt get overwhelmed. That's it. This is going to circle the globe several times over. We can't stop it other than a vaccine. This is a reality we need to accept, even though its difficult.

I view the world as a giant forest waiting for a lightning strike. Covid 19 is one of those. Higher concentrations of population like NYC are prime ready to burn. Plenty of fuel, lots of heat, and pretty much unstoppable by the time you realize what's happening. Less concentrated areas still burn, but with far less devastating effects. Essential people are the embers that fly into the air. They drift on the wind and eventually light somewhere and set off a new fire. 

We as a civilization have created the perfect means to wipe ourselves off the planet because we are so close yet so far away. One can be halfway around the world in less than 24 hours and carry who knows what with them without ever knowing. 

If politicians/leaders had been honest from the beginning about what was really going to happen from the very beginning instead of trying to make everyone feel comfortable, maybe people would have listened more. That truth, everyone is likely to get this, we are just trying to slow it down to give as many of the infected a chance, and slow down the spread until we can possibly create a vaccine to give as many as we can a chance to survive. 

[Wes21]

20 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I view the world as a giant forest waiting for a lightning strike. Covid 19 is one of those. Higher concentrations of population like NYC are prime ready to burn. Plenty of fuel, lots of heat, and pretty much unstoppable by the time you realize what's happening. Less concentrated areas still burn, but with far less devastating effects. Essential people are the embers that fly into the air. They drift on the wind and eventually light somewhere and set off a new fire. 

I am drinking and I am at the tail end of something I was watching on Netflix called "Have a Good Trip: Adventures in Psychedelics."  So the reality of what you just said is hitting me a little different than it normally would.

[electro's horse]

2 hours ago, stirs said:

Is the purpose to flatten the curve, or to stay home forever until there are no more cases?

Flatten the curve was originally intended to lessen the strain on hospitals. When this started, people realized that if too many people went to the hospitals at the same time, it would overwhelm them and then at that point anything goes. Hospitals responded by limiting elective procedures, and at a societal level we reacted by varying levels of quarantine. 

Unfortunately, many people (and opportunistic politicians) have used the phrase as a justification to do what they want. To many people "flatten the curve" means the worst is over and the recovery has begun. Forget for the moment that this makes no sense at all. Decreasing infection rate means the quarantine is working, not that the battle is won. But many politicians are juicing the numbers to feed into this misunderstanding.

So for example even as cases were rising in Georgia, Brian Kemp rescinded lockdown orders. He claims he did this because they had "flattened the curve" (which was false), but the real reason was that the state wouldn't be able to afford Unemployment Benefits anymore. So he forced people to either go back to work or just starve. 

It has recently been reported that he's been lying about the numbers by manipulating the charts so that days were shown by decreasing total, not by date. Which is pretty creative to be honest.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/just-cuckoo-state-latest-data-mishap-causes-critics-cry-foul/182PpUvUX9XEF8vO11NVGO/

So yeah, that's flattening the curve. A good idea proposed by the medical community that was bastardized by right wing groups/politicians and now rendered meaningless. 

When people reference orwell, they almost always talk about surveillance, which completely misses the point. Orwell wasn't predicting CC cameras and such. People almost always forget the part of 1984 where someone talks about how language will cease to have meaning in the future. That was what orwell was really terrified of. and he was prescient. 

Edited May 17, 2020 by electro's horse

[LinvilleGorge]

It's amazing how everyone has underestimated everything about the impact of this pandemic. Back in January, oh it won't come here. It did. Back in March, everything will be back open in a couple of weeks as this thing tails off. Two months later and stuff is just now starting to reopen. Now... "Assuming there won't be a second wave..."

WTF??? A second wave is inevitable. The second wave WILL be worse and more widespread because it'll start at the beginning of cold/flu season, it'll last the whole season, and it'll be kicked off by an already widespread presence of the disease, not a new introduction.  Everything we're seeing about "V-shaped recoveries", "quick bouncebacks", etc. all assume no second wave. It's delusional. It's not an outlook based in reality. All these economic bandaids can only last so long. The second wave will bring the economic reality of the true impact of this pandemic.

With that said, I hope I'm absolutely dead wrong but I honestly think it's going to get Great Depression levels bad this fall through next spring, but I also think we can have a have a pretty robust recovery starting next summer because I think we'll likely have multiple vaccines starting to become widely available before we get to next year's cold/flu season but if I think it'll take 2-3 years to get back to pre-pandemic levels.

[electro's horse]

we're already at great depression levels by any relevant economic indicator

[LinvilleGorge]

35 minutes ago, electro's horse said:

we're already at great depression levels by any relevant economic indicator

That's the thing. What makes it depression level is the prolonged length of time. Everyone thinks it's just going to bounce right back. It won't. The service industry is going to get massacred by this. 

[Tbe]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It's amazing how everyone has underestimated everything about the impact of this pandemic. Back in January, oh it won't come here. It did. Back in March, everything will be back open in a couple of weeks as this thing tails off. Two months later and stuff is just now starting to reopen. Now... "Assuming there won't be a second wave..."

WTF??? A second wave is inevitable. The second wave WILL be worse and more widespread because it'll start at the beginning of cold/flu season, it'll last the whole season, and it'll be kicked off by an already widespread presence of the disease, not a new introduction.  Everything we're seeing about "V-shaped recoveries", "quick bouncebacks", etc. all assume no second wave. It's delusional. It's not an outlook based in reality. All these economic bandaids can only last so long. The second wave will bring the economic reality of the true impact of this pandemic.

With that said, I hope I'm absolutely dead wrong but I honestly think it's going to get Great Depression levels bad this fall through next spring, but I also think we can have a have a pretty robust recovery starting next summer because I think we'll likely have multiple vaccines starting to become widely available before we get to next year's cold/flu season but if I think it'll take 2-3 years to get back to pre-pandemic levels.

There will be a second wave, but the political pressure to not close everything again during the most important shopping season of the year will be substantial.

Office workers will continue working from home through the fall which will have a significant impact. Stores and restaurants will continue to operate with caution but I don’t think things will close again. This will save us from the worst of the economic fall out.
 

I was talking to a friend today. He’s an executive at a huge global consulting firm. They predict 60% of office workers will work from home permanently. Even after covid is gone.

Commercial real estate and all the small businesses that are supported by workers going out for breakfast and lunch are going to be destroyed. New types of businesses will emerge though.

Edited May 17, 2020 by Tbe

[LinvilleGorge]

4 minutes ago, Tbe said:

Stores and restaurants will continue to operate with caution but I don’t think things will close again. This will save us from the worst of the economic fall out.

Will it? How many of those stores and restaurants could make it through an entire cold/flu season with significantly reduced revenues? Unemployment numbers are going to stay sky high until their can be a full blown return to normalcy. Government stimulus efforts can only keep things artificially afloat for so long. Our current economy is a house of cards built on the widespread expectation of a quick V-shaped recovery. Once that becomes an obvious pipedream this fall I think poo is gonna get U-G-L-Y.

[stirs]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/colorado-gov-pushes-back-against-cdcs-coronavirus-death-counts

So, no more dying in a car accident, but being listed as Covid 19 in CO?

[Wes21]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

That's the thing. What makes it depression level is the prolonged length of time. Everyone thinks it's just going to bounce right back. It won't. The service industry is going to get massacred by this. 

I'm not sure if it will bounce right back or not.  But given the types of businesses that were targeted in the lockdown and the nature of them, its certainly a possibility that it could bounce right back if this thing doesn't keep dragging on.  In the short term, that is the real difference between a man made recession vs a natural one.  In a natural recession, you can't literally snap your fingers and watch millions of people flock to spend gobs and gobs of money the next day.

[Tbe]

33 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Will it? How many of those stores and restaurants could make it through an entire cold/flu season with significantly reduced revenues? Unemployment numbers are going to stay sky high until their can be a full blown return to normalcy. Government stimulus efforts can only keep things artificially afloat for so long. Our current economy is a house of cards built on the widespread expectation of a quick V-shaped recovery. Once that becomes an obvious pipedream this fall I think poo is gonna get U-G-L-Y.

Things will suck for many, but I’m not convinced of depression 2.0 yet. I was out today, and it’s clear many are starting to be ok with the risk. Stores have good protections in place, people are keeping their distance from each other, etc. By this fall, this will be normal for most.

Yep, a ton of restaurants and other businesses will close. This is a big time recession. 
 

Unemployment will continue to be bad, but wage deflation (as bad as that sucks) will create employment opportunities in other areas.

The “economy” is just human behavior. Let’s see how people deal with this in the long term.

[LinvilleGorge]

5 minutes ago, Wes21 said:

I'm not sure if it will bounce right back or not.  But given the types of businesses that were targeted in the lockdown and the nature of them, its certainly a possibility that it could bounce right back if this thing doesn't keep dragging on.  In the short term, that is the real difference between a man made recession vs a natural one.  In a natural recession, you can't literally snap your fingers and watch millions of people flock to spend gobs and gobs of money the next day.

70% of the U.S. economy is consumer spending. Unemployment is probably going to hit 30%. You can't snap your fingers out of that either.