Corona Virus

[Icege]

7 hours ago, kass said:

The data is flawed. Countries use test different. In Sweden, for example, there have not been any extensive testing and there won't be either. So the numbers do not reflect how many that has had the virus. It's a tip of the iceberg.

In the beginning the swedish number could more or less be stated as people that have been so sick that they had to go to the hospital. Then they got tested. People that have had mild symptoms have been ordered to stay home in quarantine and we have not been tested. I had to stay home for more than 2,5 week and if it was corona, a cold or mild influenza,  I dont really know.

Now a little later some personal on hospitals has been tested but as stated. They say there won't be any masstesting on the general population. 

Yesterday they mentioned that they had done a randomised study to find out how many that was sick in the Stockholm area (1-2million people depending city or region). So about 773 people was tested and 2,5% had the virus at that time of testing. That was more than a week ago. Now they think 5-10% might have it actively. There will be some models published later today and I hope it also includes numbers regarding people who did have the virus but do not have it actively.  I can link to it later if you want.

Anyway, that random test show that alot more than ~9000 has been infected. And let me include this.

Next week a similar study will be done  across the whole country. I think they said 4000 people was suppose to be tested. 

If you're entire basis is that the data is not exactly correct, then you are going to be denying every data set released during this pandemic as there is no way to determine the exact numbers in all of this (plus, what about countries like the US that did not make testing widely available early on? Or China and their likely fudged numbers?). Are those numbers for Sweden not what was being presented by the WHO yesterday?

Seeing as the math is correct as well as the method, I stand by my assessment.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Icege

[Icege]

2 hours ago, Wes21 said:

Don't just look at the population size.  Take a look at the map and really think about it for a second.  Its too unique of a situation to get any real data from, unless you are going to tell me they discovered a miracle drug.

The Asian countries have a lot to offer, but I can't help but be distrustful of their actual numbers.  I'm highly interested in what we can copy from Germany, whom I think is doing a great job with this.  

You've continued to try and justify your dismissal of them based on some ever-shifting qualifying factors, but you have yet to actually address their methods. So I'll ask again:

Did you or did you not read the methods that New Zealand and Australia used?

[Harbingers]

More proof the executive branches screwed the pooch on this one.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-how-denmark-reached-stage-of-easing-lockdown-restrictions-2020-4

“Denmark rushed to lock down before almost every other country. Now its response is so far ahead that it's starting to remove restrictions.”

[Wes21]

6 minutes ago, Icege said:

You've continued to try and justify your dismissal of them based on some ever-shifting qualifying factors, but you have yet to actually address their methods. So I'll ask again:

Did you or did you not read the methods that New Zealand and Australia used?

Yes, I've read about New Zealand.  Did you ever look up New Zealand on a map?  I am more interested in a country like Germany, because of how unique a situation New Zealand is.

"Countries where elimination is likely to be the most feasible are those which can manage their borders tightly, have the resources for the sustained high volumes of testing and contact tracing required, and which can implement the kinds of lockdowns that may be needed to eliminate chains of transmission."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/elimination-what-new-zealands-coronavirus-response-can-teach-the-world

 

[Wes21]

1 hour ago, Devil Doc said:

I am a little more optimistic than most people, and I downplay the Virus Alot. It is not because I don't think it is serious, I just don't think it is a serious as they say it is.  The President had positive thoughts, and positive outcomes, which is why he said the things he did. Once he realized that it is a little worse than he expected, he has changed his tune. The projections, change everyday. I am skeptical it will be above 50K Deaths, 2 weeks ago I said 20K deaths. Which we are at ~17K deaths in the US now. If the current projections are true, the peak will be next week for majority of the US. I am not a fan of the media's narrative of Doom and Gloom, and mass hysteria and mass death. I look at it, well so far, our deaths are not bad, could have been worse, here is the positive side of things ~26K have recovered from the Virus. I understand Trump is a different color of character than we are used to, and I know many people hate him. I understand that, but to turn this Virus into a caveat is not really an analytical way to see things at this point. 

Very well said and I agree.  People have gotten so "all or nothing" when it comes to anything even remotely political that you either believe every single thing that's being said or nothing.  There is no in-between.  Its silly.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Wes21

[LinvilleGorge]

People have become so wrapped up in politics that desiring to listen to infectious disease experts on reacting to a global pandemic is somehow now taking a political stance.

[stirs]

14 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

More proof the executive branches screwed the pooch on this one.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-how-denmark-reached-stage-of-easing-lockdown-restrictions-2020-4

“Denmark rushed to lock down before almost every other country. Now its response is so far ahead that it's starting to remove restrictions.”

They are not doing a ton differently than we are as far as steps, just that their people adhered to the rules much better.  Americans are hard headed

We are at 50 deaths per million and they are at 43 per million.

[Harbingers]

16 minutes ago, stirs said:

They are not doing a ton differently than we are as far as steps, just that their people adhered to the rules much better.  Americans are hard headed

We are at 50 deaths per million and they are at 43 per million.

Timing dude. 

[Wes21]

21 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

People have become so wrapped up in politics that desiring to listen to infectious disease experts on reacting to a global pandemic is somehow now taking a political stance.

Part of the problem is the lines are blurred.  You have experts out there calling it like they see it, but then you have other legit experts playing politics with it.  Its hard to tell the difference sometimes.

[kass]

44 minutes ago, Icege said:

If you're entire basis is that the data is not exactly correct, then you are going to be denying every data set released during this pandemic as there is no way to determine the exact numbers in all of this (plus, what about countries like the US that did not make testing widely available early on? Or China and their likely fudged numbers?). Are those numbers for Sweden not what was being presented by the WHO yesterday?

Seeing as the math is correct as well as the method, I stand by my assessment.

My basis is that the data set are not comparable because they are collected with different methods. So you measure apples and oranges.

I dont think you are bright enough for this discussion. I prefer listen to experts rather than a self proclaimed epidemic amateur expert on a football forum.

"Seeing as my match is correct"... You have one number and you divide it by another number. Is that the expertise you bring to the table? Is it even possible to f that u? 

By the way, your number for the Swedish population is wrong so yeah, you didn't even use an updated data set. Embarrassing. 

[LinvilleGorge]

5 minutes ago, Wes21 said:

Part of the problem is the lines are blurred.  You have experts out there calling it like they see it, but then you have other legit experts playing politics with it.  Its hard to tell the difference sometimes.

I think the issue is likely that you think experts saying things you want to hear = "calling it like they see it" while experts saying things you don't want to hear = "playing politics with it".

[4Corners]

[Icege]

48 minutes ago, Wes21 said:

Yes, I've read about New Zealand.  Did you ever look up New Zealand on a map?  I am more interested in a country like Germany, because of how unique a situation New Zealand is.

"Countries where elimination is likely to be the most feasible are those which can manage their borders tightly, have the resources for the sustained high volumes of testing and contact tracing required, and which can implement the kinds of lockdowns that may be needed to eliminate chains of transmission."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/elimination-what-new-zealands-coronavirus-response-can-teach-the-world

 

You forgot Australia, which used different methods from New Zealand to achieve similar percentages. I've emphasized this, despite your attempts to cherry pick and not engage in good faith.

So... you believe that the USA is more like Germany due to border control, lack of testing resources, lack of contact tracing, and inability to implement lockdowns?

Or do you believe that the USA is more like a landlocked country that is on the same landmass as the source of the outbreak as opposed to regions that have to be exclusively traveled to via sea/air?

It can't be due to the size differences, as much as I'd like to poke fun and suggest that you believe otherwise. 

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, Icege said:

You forgot Australia, which used different methods from New Zealand to achieve similar percentages. I've emphasized this, despite your attempts to cherry pick and not engage in good faith.

So... you believe that the USA is more like Germany due to border control, lack of testing resources, lack of contact tracing, and inability to implement lockdowns?

Or do you believe that the USA is more like a landlocked country that is on the same landmass as the source of the outbreak as opposed to regions that have to be exclusively traveled to via sea/air?

It can't be due to the size differences, as much as I'd like to poke fun and suggest that you believe otherwise. 

I'm not sure why so many people are trying to steadfastly deny that there isn't a strong link between increased temperatures and reduces contagiousness. Early studies out of both China and Spain have found a strong correlation there. We're seeing the same thing play out around the globe as the southern hemisphere is fairing much better than the northern hemisphere overall. I think over the coming weeks and months we may see that reverse course, but hopefully most of the southern hemisphere countries have taken enough measures early enough that they can avoid the fate of the northern hemisphere even if they see a rise in contagiousness as they go into their winter.