Corona Virus

[Harbingers]

9 minutes ago, TheRumGone said:

That is a bit misleading because people in that age range can still have underlying health conditions but I understand where you’re coming from. I’m looking at some cases in the Washington area where a couple 20 and 30 year olds had to be intubated and they are completely healthy people. People need to be made more aware of this.

Ya agreed, in fact it says.

“The report did not say whether the patients had underlying risk factors such as a chronic illness or compromised immune systems, so it's unclear whether the younger adults hospitalized were more vulnerable to serious infection than others.”

was just trying to back up the point you were making that young people aren’t invincible to this.

[Harbingers]

15 minutes ago, 4Corners said:

Right China isn’t responsible really for how awfully ill prepared the US and parts of the world have been to deal with this. Once we make it through this they will just start back up with this crap again. Chinese people are cool but F China and F China’s government. 

We had months to prepare medical equipment, staff, stockpiles of goods and everyone to the reality of this. Nobody did it. And hell let’s say it didn’t happen, the market might have plinked down a thousand or so but we would have had a serious goods supply if it raged back in the fall. I mean FFS China built a 1,500 person hospital in 10 days. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Harbingers

[kungfoodude]

37 minutes ago, raz said:

yeah 50/50.  half the country will have it by the time its done with its first pass.  most of us, up to 75% won't ever even know it.  

and if it was only me that i'm concerned with - there is no concern at all.   you've kinda gone off the rails here bro.  you gotta find your glow again.  shonuf is here and he is glowing red like a mofo

I don't think half the country will end up with it, although we will never know because a lot of people are not going to show symptoms and we are only going to test a minuscule portion of the population. The Spanish flu was estimated to have infected as much as 25% of the US population at the time, although due to modern travel the ease of transmission is exponentially higher. But, the health care is also leaps and bounds better than over 100 years ago. 

I don't believe it will end up infecting 163 million people in this country(50/50). Could it? Possibly. I also don't think that is realistic given how spread out the population really is. 

The truth is, there is not much you personally can do about it other than barricade yourself at your house if you are that concerned. That's it. I am going to continue going about my daily life as I would normally. I may get it, I may not. I'd bet heavily on the latter. 

The panic and stress from worrying about it isn't going to do any good. It just is what it is. You don't have an impact on the lack of preparedness from the federal government, you don't have an impact on the decisions that your state or local municipality will make in regards to combating it, and you don't have an impact on the way people will react. It just is what it is. For me, it's easier to just accept that and move on. I follow the scientific journals and the health agency updates to understand it a little better and to perhaps change any behaviors that might put me more at risk. That's what keeps my mind at ease about it. Just do what you can and the rest is just going to happen. 

[kungfoodude]

40 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

“Up to 20% of people hospitalized with coronavirus in the United States are young adults between ages 20 to 44, a new federal study shows.

While the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people, the report issued Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows younger people are making up a big portion of hospitalizations.”

Did you actually read the CDC link? Be honest.

[kungfoodude]

23 minutes ago, CBDellinger said:

 

A few days old but interesting breakdown on age groups none the less.

 

Strange how it looks VERY familiar to the numbers from the Chinese report. 

[Harbingers]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Did you actually read the CDC link? Be honest.

Are you trying to make a actual point? Or?

[CBDellinger]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

Strange how it looks VERY familiar to the numbers from the Chinese report. 

did they also report that 96% of deaths are people 60 and up?

I honestly dont know.

[4Corners]

14 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

We had months to prepare medical equipment, staff, stockpiles of goods and everyone to the reality of this. Nobody did it. And hell let’s say it didn’t happen, the market might have plinked down a thousand or so but we would have had a serious goods supply if it raged back in the fall. I mean FFS China built a 1,500 person hospital in 10 days. 

What do you think the working conditions were for the people who built that hospital 

[CBDellinger]

3 minutes ago, 4Corners said:

What do you think the working conditions were for the people who built that hospital 

work or die.

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

Are you trying to make a actual point? Or?

TABLE. Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and case–fatality percentages for reported COVID–19 cases, by age group —United States, February 12–March 16, 2020

Age group (yrs) (no. of cases) %* Hospitalization ICU admission Case-fatality 0–19 (123) 1.6–2.5 0 0 20–44 (705) 14.3–20.8 2.0–4.2 0.1–0.2 45–54 (429) 21.2–28.3 5.4–10.4 0.5–0.8 55–64 (429) 20.5–30.1 4.7–11.2 1.4–2.6 65–74 (409) 28.6–43.5 8.1–18.8 2.7–4.9 75–84 (210) 30.5–58.7 10.5–31.0 4.3–10.5 ≥85 (144) 31.3–70.3 6.3–29.0 10.4–27.3 Total (2,449) 20.7–31.4 4.9–11.5 1.8–3.4

 

Do you notice that the 0-19 and 20-44 data sets incorporate a larger range of ages? I am gonna take a wild GUESS (and let me be VERY clear that it is a guess) that a higher percentage of those cases are in the 35-44 range(and much more reasonable set). But, regardless, you can also see that group has the second lowest hospitalization rate, ICU admission rate and case fatality rate. Also, let's be clear that this is a relatively small sample size so neither your nor my takes on this data may end up being completely accurate in the long term. 

The report also clearly states:

Quote

 The cases described in this report include both COVID-19 cases confirmed by state or local public health laboratories as well as those with a positive test at the state or local public health laboratories and confirmation at CDC. No data on serious underlying health conditions were available. Data on these cases are preliminary and are missing for some key characteristics of interest, including hospitalization status (1,514), ICU admission (2,253), death (2,001), and age (386). Because of these missing data, the percentages of hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths (case-fatality percentages) were estimated as a range. The lower bound of these percentages was estimated by using all cases within each age group as denominators. The corresponding upper bound of these percentages was estimated by using only cases with known information on each outcome as denominators.

So we don't know if underlying health issues were involved or not. The bulk of the data so far seems to indicate preliminary that is the case. Furthermore, that is also what a few of the academics seem to be saying and cautioning.  

[Harbingers]

1 minute ago, 4Corners said:

What do you think the working conditions were for the people who built that hospital 

Not great by our standards Obviously, but they did have 7,000 people working on it. I’m assuming the shifts were 7-12’s(16 for some maybe) since I’m sure they work camped them. But I bet they got paid out the ass. 

[cookinbrak]

Don't worry about the lack of food, now that restaurants are shut down, tons of food will now be available

[Harbingers]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

So we don't know if underlying health issues were involved or not. The bulk of the data so far seems to indicate preliminary that is the case. Furthermore, that is also what a few of the academics seem to be saying and cautioning.  

RumGone clearly stated he’s following cases of completely healthy people in this bracket. So what’s your point again? I don’t understand what you feel like your trying to accomplish. We know perfectly healthy people can end up intubated or on HL machines from this. 

[top dawg]

From today's update from USA Today:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's worst-case-scenario is that up to 210 million Americans will be infected by December. Under this forecast, 21 million people would need hospitalization and 200,000 to 1.7 million could die. Collins said that if the U.S. takes drastic measures "we should certainly be able to blunt" the U.S. curve. "But let's be clear: There's going to be a very rough road."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/19/coronavirus-updates-us-china-nyc-cases-testing-unemployment-cdc/2866751001/

 

We need to take this threat seriously, folks!