Corona Virus

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, Happy Panther said:

Maybe but I would bet against it. Once there is any sign of recovery we will need a huge stimulus package. In many countries like in 2008 and later. We have to prop up airlines, create a small business packages an maybe send everybody $1,000. 

The underlying economic data has been very strong. And we have fixed most of what caused the great recession in 2008. Many were predicting a natural correction in the market and we certainly got one. 

This seems like it would be more of a V shaped recovery based on the economy overall. But I can't predict anything in the market. I'm buying equities all the way down and hopefully more equities when the recovery comes will pay off.

If we are under quarantine until November you might be right.

 

It's why I'm saying to lock it down now. Get the pain over with. We're going to get there anyway, so swan dive right on in. The quicker we lock it down, the quicker we can get back to normal. Wuhan was locked down for basically two months. With proper economic interventions, we can weather that decently well. Let's get to it already.

[Happy Panther]

Just now, LinvilleGorge said:

It's why I'm saying to lock it down now. Get the pain over with. We're going to get there anyway, so swan dive right on in. The quicker we lock it down, the quicker we can get back to normal. Wuhan was locked down for basically two months. With proper economic interventions, we can weather that decently well. Let's get to it already.

We agree. Lock it down and then prop it up with stimulus. 

If this were in political I would have some more caustic comments.

[SmokinwithWilly]

 

12 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

The longer they keep up quarantine measures, the further down this hole it will end up. An extended quarantine with no safety net measures will basically torpedo not only the economy but it will wreck the American public, who largely lives paycheck to paycheck. Quarantine is probably literally the last thing the American public needs and I know that sounds cold but it is also very true. 

Right now the market plummeting has limited impacts on the general public because so few Americans actually have substantial funds in it and those that do are going to be working for companies that are much more likely to offer paid leave. But once you starting breaking the lower classes(who also don't have the ability to stock up on weeks worth of groceries at a time) that is when you are really going to see a quick acceleration of this whole thing. 

Aside from the arguments I have made regarding the quarantine statistically, this one should seriously scare people. If you are going to close all the stores, all the restaurants, all the businesses make that next logical leap to what is going to happen when food is scarce and people are not getting paid. 

I'm a small business owner and I'm scared about what this is going to do to me. 2 months of this and I will probably have to shut the doors for good. I won't be able to fulfill my contracts if my employees have to stay home. 2 weeks paid leave. The financial impact will ruin me. I'm worried for my employees. They have families. I have a family. Owning your own business is a hard place to be right now. 

[Squirrel]

31 minutes ago, 4Corners said:

I mean, this is a person from West By God Virginia we are talking about. I’d be surprised if half the state has a reading level about 5th grade. 

Wv is the only state without a case of the virus. 

[kungfoodude]

12 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, there's no "V" if this virtual shutdown extends well into the year. I don't know what the answers are, but it's going to take massive economic intervention to keep the economy from torpedoing and that's on a global scale. The entire world is looking at being in this situation very soon.

I think that is a big mistake to assume it will take a long time. It is not going to take an extended shutdown to torpedo the economy. It is merely going to take 2-4 weeks before serious chaos starts in earnest and is difficult to recover from. That's where this will differ from the 2008 crash. That was the financial institutions hanging by a thread and the effects of that being relatively delayed to the general public. Quarantine will have immediate impacts on the public.  

[CRA]

7 hours ago, t96 said:

What’s the factual scientific link between coronavirus and global warming?

didn’t claim coronavirus was due to global warming.  Merely said in the future we are likely to see old virus because of global warming return. 

[TheRumGone]

6 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I think that is a big mistake to assume it will take a long time. It is not going to take an extended shutdown to torpedo the economy. It is merely going to take 2-4 weeks before serious chaos starts in earnest and is difficult to recover from. That's where this will differ from the 2008 crash. That was the financial institutions hanging by a thread and the effects of that being relatively delayed to the general public. Quarantine will have immediate impacts on the public.  

Yup. Gonna have to take socialist measures for there not to be anarchy. Low income people will not last months. We’re talking weeks here and there will be people fighting for their lives unless the government intervenes. This will affect millions upon millions of people in just a few short weeks.

in my city. Restaurant workers are already petitioning to the governor desperate because they’re not gonna be able to afford rent or food. 

[kungfoodude]

24 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It's why I'm saying to lock it down now. Get the pain over with. We're going to get there anyway, so swan dive right on in. The quicker we lock it down, the quicker we can get back to normal. Wuhan was locked down for basically two months. With proper economic interventions, we can weather that decently well. Let's get to it already.

I disagree. If you lock everything down, that will be a much bigger event than the spread of this virus could ever hope to create. How do you propose to take proper economic interventions when the food supply is interrupted? The shelves are bare now, how do you propose to continue to manufacture and feed the public without employees? How will they be delivered? All those logistics trains to our stores will be interrupted, how will that be remedied? If people are worried about the homeless problem now....watch what 4+ weeks of almost no economic activity will create. Roughly 25% of US citizens live within 50% of the poverty line. How well do you think they will weather this storm? To quote a previous post in this thread, if you are talking about the impact of 1.5 million deaths from the virus, how do you account for potentially over 80 million people being in financial ruin?

18 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

 

I'm a small business owner and I'm scared about what this is going to do to me. 2 months of this and I will probably have to shut the doors for good. I won't be able to fulfill my contracts if my employees have to stay home. 2 weeks paid leave. The financial impact will ruin me. I'm worried for my employees. They have families. I have a family. Owning your own business is a hard place to be right now. 

This is exactly what I am talking about. A national quarantine beyond a couple of weeks will be an unbelievably devastating blow to small businesses and regular people. Something that should be of a far greater concern than this virus simply spreading, as it will anyway. 

[Happy Panther]

3 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I disagree. If you lock everything down, that will be a much bigger event than the spread of this virus could ever hope to create. How do you propose to take proper economic interventions when the food supply is interrupted?

Food supply is an essential service that would not be interrupted.

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, TheRumGone said:

Yup. Gonna have to take socialist measures for there not to be anarchy. Low income people will not last months. We’re talking weeks here and there will be people fighting for their lives unless the government intervenes. This will affect millions upon millions of people in just a few short weeks.

in my city. Restaurant workers are already petitioning to the governor desperate because they’re not gonna be able to afford rent or food. 

Quarantine will be absolutely ruinous to this country, especially if it is extended. The problem is that people's fears are getting in the way of being logical. People get emotional because they see the death tolls(and ignore the demographics and death rates) and they don't consider the impact of putting 10-25% of the population(my estimate) at the edge of survival/homelessness. That will be disaster of epic proportions. 

Remember during our last crash with a "liberal" leadership, it was corporate America that received a bailout, not the general population/homeowners. Do you think regular citizens will receive a bailout for the sin of being poor this go around? I think not. 

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Happy Panther said:

Food supply is an essential service that would not be interrupted.

That sounds good in theory. 

[Happy Panther]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

That sounds good in theory. 

It's not theory. It is what is happening all over the world. It is being observed as we speak.

[4Corners]

24 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Wv is the only state without a case of the virus. 

Lol. I guess all the inbreeding finally paid off. 

[TheRumGone]

4 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Quarantine will be absolutely ruinous to this country, especially if it is extended. The problem is that people's fears are getting in the way of being logical. People get emotional because they see the death tolls(and ignore the demographics and death rates) and they don't consider the impact of putting 10-25% of the population(my estimate) at the edge of survival/homelessness. That will be disaster of epic proportions. 

Remember during our last crash with a "liberal" leadership, it was corporate America that received a bailout, not the general population/homeowners. Do you think regular citizens will receive a bailout for the sin of being poor this go around? I think not. 

Bernie Sanders. if corporations get the bailout in this catastrophe instead of the poor/middle class, Americans should be very afraid of an uprising. It will be catastrophic. But I’ll stop there since this is deemed to political for the main forum. 

Edited March 16, 2020 by TheRumGone