Corona Virus

[Woodie]

36 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

You don't seem to comprehend that we (as in the majority of the world) are in the very beginning stages of this. This party hasn't even started yet.

I saw an interview with an infectious disease scientist that works for one of the health organizations on the Coronavirus, and he said the same thing.  He said that what's scary is that this is only the beginning.  It will get much worse, and they expect the fatality numbers to be much higher than what we typically see with the flu.  He said the incubation period is at least four days, so people are exposing others while living their normal lives because they think they are completely healthy.  Also said the numbers will take a huge jump once more people get tested.

One thing that makes me concerned is just how unhealthy the United States is in general.  He also said that obesity, diabetes, heart problems, and generally anyone with any kind of weakened immune system or poor physical health is at much greater risk for death.  So, I fear that we might see a higher mortality rate than many other places, simply because of how unhealthy the average American is.

[cookinbrak]

23 minutes ago, Real1zOnly said:

If you don't have enough can goods in your house to last you 2 months you are doing yourself a disservice.

My family has enough to last us at least 3 months. We got a closet with nothing but water. We get delivered huge jugs of water once every month actually.lol

I have enough food in my big freezer to last 2 months. The only canned goods I have are cans of soup and beans for chili.

Gonna stop by the casa de liquor tomorrow. Just in case.

[LinvilleGorge]

Just now, Woodie said:

I saw an interview with an infectious disease scientist that works for one of the health organizations on the Coronavirus, and he said the same thing.  He said that what's scary is that this is only the beginning.  It will get much worse, and they expect the fatality numbers to be much higher than what we typically see with the flu.  He said the incubation period is at least four days, so people are exposing others while living their normal lives because they think they are completely healthy.  Also said the numbers will take a huge jump once more people get tested.

One thing that makes me concerned is just how unhealthy the United States is in general.  He also said that obesity, diabetes, heart problems, and generally anyone with any kind of weakened immune system or poor physical health is at much greater risk for death.  So, I fear that we might see a higher mortality rate than many other places, simply because of how unhealthy the average American is.

That was Michael Osterholm director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. What's scary is that his predictions on the way this thing will play out have been spot on so far. He was pounding the drum back in early January that this was going to become a global pandemic unless we took drastic action immediately. 

[Xtreme]

14 minutes ago, 4Corners said:

Assuming he and the rest of us make it through this - how would you feel letting your kid play ball there? These coaches are supposed to help and protect these kids not put them in danger so you can hit a pay bonus. Very selfish on his part and Bullets for other programs to negatively recruit against you 

I would not want my kid to play for this guy. He just showed everyone how irresponsible he is. Like you said, he's their coach, it's his responsibility to protect those players and he failed them. He willingly surrounded himself around those kids knowing he had symptoms and put them all at risk for this illness. Not just those kids, but everyone they've come into contact with beforehand. I can only imagine how pissed off their parents are. This may be enough to have him fired. That might be a bit extreme, though. But possibly justified. 

[Woodie]

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

That was Michael Osterholm director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. What's scary is that his predictions on the way this thing will play out have been spot on so far. He was pounding the drum back in early January that this was going to become a global pandemic unless we took drastic action immediately. 

Yep, that must be him.  I think people minimizing it because they are comparing it to the flu don't really understand just how much worse things will likely get.  

[LinvilleGorge]

Food for thought for those touting the current "low numbers". These things grow exponentially and we're probably too far into the curve to keep this from overwhelming many of our hospitals soon. There's an expectation for a doubling of cases every 4 days. When you're going from 1 to 2 to 4 to 8 to 16 to 32 it takes awhile for the momentum to build. Three weeks in you're "only" at about 32 infected from patient zero. However, three weeks (six total weeks) after that you're at over 1000. Three more weeks (nine total weeks) you're at over 32,000. Three more weeks (12 total weeks) and you're over a million. Three weeks after that (15 total weeks) you're over 33 million. That's 10% of the US. About two weeks after that (17 weeks) exponential growth has infected the entire US population. That's what exponential growth does. Now that's not going to happen, not everyone is going to be infected and most infected will recover. But we're going to see a huge surge of cases and it's right around the corner.

 

[MurkN]

 

[GoPanthers123]

The difference is people are contagious before they get a fever.   That’s the worst part, anyone may be a carrier and we are always a week behind on true numbers.  

Pray for a cure, this is a global crisis.

[LinvilleGorge]

Just now, GoPanthers123 said:

The difference is people are contagious before they get a fever.   That’s the worst part, anyone may be a carrier and we are always a week behind on true numbers.  

Pray for a cure, this is a global crisis.

A vaccine, if one can be developed, is probably a year away. There won't be a cure. It's all about supportive care and trying to minimize the spread the best we can. Over time, the population will likely develop a natural immunoligical resistance but right now there's none with it being a novel virus.

[imminent rogaine]

I’ve saved up a bunch of leftover antibiotics so I think we should be okay. 

[LinvilleGorge]

Just gonna add this... I don't intend to invite panic. My personal hunch is that the actual mortality rate is significantly lower than the globally reported 3.4% simply because I think there are a LOT of undiagnosed cases. South Korea is pretty much setting the global standard on how to deal with this and have by far the best testing program and their mortality rate is significantly under 1% at 0.6% They're not exactly a young population either with an average age of 41. The average age in the US is 38. The global average is 30. They're probably the best case study right now. The Diamond Princess cruise ship is another good one 705 people ended up testing positive. Six have died. That's a 0.8% mortality rate. It's also worth noting that according to the Cruise Lines International Association, the average cruise passenger is 47, so significantly older than the South Korea population, possibly explaining the higher mortality rate compared to South Korea.

Don't panic, but be aware and use precaution.

[DeeJay]

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Shufdog]

Paranoia strikes deep,
Into your life it will creep.
It starts when you're always afraid.
Step out of line, the men come and take you away.

[nogoodbum]

Too much invalid comparision [spelling] of #s with Italy & SK. Not only do they both have a much older average age of the population but possibly more important, a very much higher rate of multi-generational households.