Expect More Moves Like These

[dcpanther89]

1 hour ago, Pantherzack179812 said:

Our owner is worth 12 billion, we don't need to save cash like the dolphins. 

Dolphins owner is in the top 5 of valuations of NFL owners. Everybody likes to save. I feel Tepper is doing it or considering because of his interest in building a new stadium. 

[stbugs]

1 hour ago, Khyber53 said:

I'm just saying Hurney, for all the criticism, has managed to build two Superb Owl teams (that second one Gettleman was GM, but the team was built and picked by Hurney). The guy can rebuild a team from just rubble and rags like no one else.

Each of those teams managed a three-year run of contention/relevance.. so that's not bad. Endurance hasn't been their strong suits, though. Perhaps with new coaching we can build something durable.

 

I’m not sold on Hurney at all. He’s also done well to completely collapse teams and then get multiple top 10 picks that help drive the rebuild. He’s made some good calls but his problem is that since like 2007 or 2008, he hasn’t had good overall drafts. You can point to say Cam but there was nothing of value in the rest of that entire draft. Gettleman with FAs and some decent drafts got enough other guys around the stars that we got a complete team. 4 out of 5 playoffs. Hurney drafts for two years and we get Moore, a struggling CB starter and Burns. Look at the team now. Remember how we could have beaten the Saints on the road in the 2017 playoffs with no WRs? Welp, that 42-10 loss at the end of the season sort of looks like a match up of different teams in just two short years.

We will get a great player at 7, I don’t doubt that. Does that really mean he’s a great GM or that we sucked enough and the number elite players/QBs makes pick 7 a good pick? It’s been a long time since Hurney has been a good drafter. I don’t give a rats ass about players drafted 15 years ago. That doesn’t mean anything now. We’ve got a chance to get 3 solid players in the first three rounds. We haven’t gotten anything really good in 6 day two picks the past two drafts. We’d be a completely different team if Marty did anything past the 1st round.

[Khyber53]

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

I’m not sold on Hurney at all. He’s also done well to completely collapse teams and then get multiple top 10 picks that help drive the rebuild. He’s made some good calls but his problem is that since like 2007 or 2008, he hasn’t had good overall drafts. You can point to say Cam but there was nothing of value in the rest of that entire draft. Gettleman with FAs and some decent drafts got enough other guys around the stars that we got a complete team. 4 out of 5 playoffs. Hurney drafts for two years and we get Moore, a struggling CB starter and Burns. Look at the team now. Remember how we could have beaten the Saints on the road in the 2017 playoffs with no WRs? Welp, that 42-10 loss at the end of the season sort of looks like a match up of different teams in just two short years.

We will get a great player at 7, I don’t doubt that. Does that really mean he’s a great GM or that we sucked enough and the number elite players/QBs makes pick 7 a good pick? It’s been a long time since Hurney has been a good drafter. I don’t give a rats ass about players drafted 15 years ago. That doesn’t mean anything now. We’ve got a chance to get 3 solid players in the first three rounds. We haven’t gotten anything really good in 6 day two picks the past two drafts. We’d be a completely different team if Marty did anything past the 1st round.

You realize that the whole cap structure is created to have teams grow and collapse, grow and collapse, right? A few have found the magic (and unshared) formula for massaging the cap just right, a few have found creative ways to keep kicking the can down the road and some have never been able to make it work for them. The middle ground, where just over half the teams reside, is the one where it works as it was designed to and they have three or four years of relevance/potential/success and three or four years of rebuild.

Hurney is one of those middle ground GMs, but he has a knack for doing the rebuild thing, usually shaving a year or two off of it. Does that make him one of the greats? Nah, not even close. Does it make him at least respectable in comparison to the rest of the league GMs? Yeah, he's in the top third. By a wee margin, but there just the same.

Only one team has built an honest to goodness dynasty since league parity came about and that's the Patriots. I still think it took monumental cheating to get there, but ... a dynasty still the same.

 

[Happy Panther]

4 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Can't wait to trade up with all my new picks.

 

Hurney trades down as much as he trades up FYI

[stbugs]

22 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

You realize that the whole cap structure is created to have teams grow and collapse, grow and collapse, right? A few have found the magic (and unshared) formula for massaging the cap just right, a few have found creative ways to keep kicking the can down the road and some have never been able to make it work for them. The middle ground, where just over half the teams reside, is the one where it works as it was designed to and they have three or four years of relevance/potential/success and three or four years of rebuild.

Hurney is one of those middle ground GMs, but he has a knack for doing the rebuild thing, usually shaving a year or two off of it. Does that make him one of the greats? Nah, not even close. Does it make him at least respectable in comparison to the rest of the league GMs? Yeah, he's in the top third. By a wee margin, but there just the same.

Only one team has built an honest to goodness dynasty since league parity came about and that's the Patriots. I still think it took monumental cheating to get there, but ... a dynasty still the same.

 

Agree more with this post than the first. The draft is also the big thing. Managing the cap to keep a dynasty going is very hard and you are right that only the Pats have truly done it for longer than the typical window. Most teams just hover in mediocrity. I just think that Marty’s not nearly as good anymore. If he stayed GM in 2013, I don’t think we make the SB. We couldn’t keep going having 1 good pick a year and not making the tough calls. The last two drafts appear to be more like the 2009-2012 drafts that got us 1, maybe 2 hits each draft. That sucks the talent out of the team, kind of like today. 1st round picks have to be starters for the draft to be solid (unless you luck out later), but Day 2 is where you sink or swim. I posted it in other threads but the reason why NO is kicking our asses now is day 2 picks. From 2016 till now, they’ve gotten lots of starters. We got Bradberry, Moton and Samuel in 2016-2017 and had Worley who’s a decent starter for the Raiders but not quite Saints level. In 2018-2019 our day 2 picks have killed us.

[Basbear]

13 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Agree more with this post than the first. The draft is also the big thing. Managing the cap to keep a dynasty going is very hard and you are right that only the Pats have truly done it for longer than the typical window. Most teams just hover in mediocrity. I just think that Marty’s not nearly as good anymore. If he stayed GM in 2013, I don’t think we make the SB. We couldn’t keep going having 1 good pick a year and not making the tough calls. The last two drafts appear to be more like the 2009-2012 drafts that got us 1, maybe 2 hits each draft. That sucks the talent out of the team, kind of like today. 1st round picks have to be starters for the draft to be solid (unless you luck out later), but Day 2 is where you sink or swim. I posted it in other threads but the reason why NO is kicking our asses now is day 2 picks. From 2016 till now, they’ve gotten lots of starters. We got Bradberry, Moton and Samuel in 2016-2017 and had Worley who’s a decent starter for the Raiders but not quite Saints level. In 2018-2019 our day 2 picks have killed us.

Very simply look at the team since Herniay took it back over, form a talent point its gone to pot. The team went form not having enough roster spots for the draft class(hence one of the reason Dave traded up all the time) to needing 20-25 spots.   

[Icege]

4 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

I'm just saying Hurney, for all the criticism, has managed to build two Superb Owl teams (that second one Gettleman was GM, but the team was built and picked by Hurney). The guy can rebuild a team from just rubble and rags like no one else.

Each of those teams managed a three-year run of contention/relevance.. so that's not bad. Endurance hasn't been their strong suits, though. Perhaps with new coaching we can build something durable.

 

This has been thoroughly debunked, and if needed, can be done so again. Hurney is trash.

[Happy Panther]

3 hours ago, stbugs said:

I’m not sold on Hurney at all. He’s also done well to completely collapse teams and then get multiple top 10 picks that help drive the rebuild. He’s made some good calls but his problem is that since like 2007 or 2008, he hasn’t had good overall drafts.

True although 2012 wasn't terrible. 

[stbugs]

36 minutes ago, Happy Panther said:

True although 2012 wasn't terrible. 

It was pretty bad. Kuechly at 9, great pick but again a top 10 pick. Norman in the 5th was solid as well, but Amini, Alexander and Adams 2nd to 4th. Marty was a 1st round and maybe 2 since 2009. The biggest issue wasn’t just the 1 maybe two starters, it was that everyone else was literally garbage. He wasn’t even getting Tre Boston or Daryl Williams or Trai Turner or Norwell or Moton or any of those starters you need to get in that 2nd to 4th rounds to be a playoff team. He was getting guys who if they played (like Amini) they made the team worse. You can’t build a team with 1.5 draft picks that can contribute each year. You’d need around 15 drafts to field 22 starters. That’s why the 2019 team looked like a shitty version of the 2017 team.

Gettleman whiffed on a lot of picks but according to PFR, 14 of his 28 draft picks in his were primary starters more than one year (handful were for 1 year). Marty has 11 in 47 picks since 2009. I would have even given him anyone who started one year the past two drafts.

Great picks help but you need a team and since 2008, Marty has been terrible as that. 6 drafts and you only have half a team of starters?

[DamnItJake!]

Need to try and get Trent Williams but I think we are in CAP hell this year!! He would fill the left tackle spot.. then we need to get a center.. Paradis is garbage!! Got ran over all season!!

[Khyber53]

On 3/5/2020 at 5:06 PM, Icege said:

This has been thoroughly debunked, and if needed, can be done so again. Hurney is trash.

You're "debunked" is still "debated". 

[joemac]

On 3/5/2020 at 12:36 PM, Pantherzack179812 said:

Our owner is worth 12 billion, we don't need to save cash like the dolphins. 

Stephen Ross is worth 7.6 billion dollars. Not like he’s searching for change in his couch cushions either...

[45catfan]

On 3/5/2020 at 12:21 PM, stbugs said:

I do agree that trades can be good and that I definitely want to keep the comp picks. We honestly could get quite a few good ones. Bradberry should get a 3rd. Boston, Butler, Addison, McCoy and even Irvin could be in that 4-5th range each, maybe 6th. Guys like Van Roten and Hogan are more likely 7th rounders, maybe 6th for Van Roten if he gets a starting salary. Poe and Wright are mysteries because I read that declining option FAs no longer count as of 2019 but it’s not a published rule. Either way, I’d honestly expect a 3rd, 4th, 2-3 5ths and a 6th or 7th. 6 comp picks wouldn’t surprise me and that’s a decent amount of ammo to move around. Maybe Cam for a 2021 2nd is an option if we can’t get a 2020 pick. That would load us up, especially if we have a top 3 pick like I’m expecting. 

The actual formula for comp picks is not known except to the NFL, but as a general rule of thumb this is what got awarded for this year's draft based on annual contract salary: $13M+ =3rd rounder,  $8M+ =4th rounder, $5M+ = 5th rounder, $3M+ = 6th rounder and 7th rounders bottomed out at $1.3M.

It's fluid year-to-year because only 32 comp picks can be awarded and depending on how lucrative contracts got the prior FA market will cause those numbers to fluctuate.  Several other variable factor in as well, so that's why these figures are approximate.

[stbugs]

1 hour ago, 45catfan said:

The actual formula for comp picks is not known except to the NFL, but as a general rule of thumb this is what got awarded for this year's draft based on annual contract salary: $13M+ =3rd rounder,  $8M+ =4th rounder, $5M+ = 5th rounder, $3M+ = 6th rounder and 7th rounders bottomed out at $1.3M.

It's fluid year-to-year because only 32 comp picks can be awarded and depending on how lucrative contracts got the prior FA market will cause those numbers to fluctuate.  Several other variable factor in as well, so that's why these figures are approximate.

They’ve actually awarded more than 32 before. I can’t remember which year but it was 34 I think, no other year’s been above 32. Looks like 4 is the normal max per year. Not sure if that means if you had 5 in the top 32 that they’d give you 4, but bump up one. It’s still a black box. Either way, we could clearly max out. Bradberry, Butler, McCoy, Addison, Boston and Irvin will all easily be above a 7th. I’m pretty sure Poe and Wright will not count, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens.