Roster turnover during regime change

[lightsout]

With the talk about Mario, Trai, Cam, Bradberry, McCoy, etc. all re-signing or being released or traded, there are things I think people overlook.

Why would a franchise keep older players or cut younger players during a "rebuild"? I've seen some wondering why we're bringing back Cam and possibly not bringing back Trai. Why not re-sign Bradberry? Why not bring back McCoy (and some saying for God's sake, don't bring back McCoy)?

Look back at 2010 to 2011 roster turnover when Ron got hired. Look at practically every coaching change and the subsequent roster turnover. New staff comes in, evaluates the roster, and presents a list of guys they absolutely want back. They talk with the guys, figure out who fits their system and the culture they want, and they sort the roster out before and after the draft so they can have the best chance for success.
 

When we think "rebuild", the immediate assumption is "keep the young guys, cut the older guys, and you're starting from scratch with very little in the hopes of building it up". That's not exactly what a rebuild necessarily has to be. Every coaching change leads to rebuilding, in a sense. We're simply going to keep the guys that are best equipped to help the new staff execute their plan. That's all. Some of these players will be veterans, some will be young guys. Young guys are generally safe because they have cheaper contracts and upside to work with. This is BEFORE you look at the business and analytical side of things. Let's look at some of the free agents.


Dontari Poe: going to be released because he was generally not very good for us. Got tossed several times which lead to big runs. 30 year old DT with either not enough left in the tank or not enough effort or both. Not good for the team moving forward. Arguably struggled due to scheme and the rest of the defense struggling as well.

Gerald McCoy: Not bad most of the season. But at 32 years old, he will be on the decline and not worth the financial investment. Can get similar production for cheaper.

Mario Addison: Showed some good stuff, but again a 32 year old. If he does come back, it will be a short term deal to fill a gap in the roster. Why keep this 32 year old and not McCoy? Because Irvin.

Bruce Irvin: Irvin is 33 and not going to return unless he is fine with a one year deal to go out on. Given the youth at the position, he's expendable even though he played well in his snaps and seemed to be good in the locker room. If you keep Addison, you release Irvin and vice versa, just to have another year of veteran leadership here for Burns and Miller.

Kyle Love, Vernon Butler: One of these two is gone and I think it has to be Love. Butler is younger and they perform the same duties, and I personally am not high on Love. Likely drafting a DT in the first three rounds, so the release of both Poe and McCoy won't mean keeping both of these two UNLESS Love comes on a one year deal to fill a gap in the roster if we don't like other FA options.

Tre Boston: Lots of speculation after the season that Boston was part of a group wanting to leave together and play elsewhere together. Boston knows that the FA process isn't something that he wants to test because other than us, he didn't garner a ton of interest elsewhere. If he wants to come back on another short term deal, he could help in the back end. If not, he's gone. He has to buy into the new staff and be a leader.


This is just the big name defensive FAs, but using a similar mindset, you can guess how the offensive FAs are likely being viewed.

Why trade Trai? He's just honestly not been very great. 6 sacks allowed in 13 games, which is his highest career total and more than his three previous seasons combined. His PFF grade is really average, and he stands to make $12m this season and $15.3m in 2021 before becoming a UFA in 2022. Trading that away would help us more than hurt us. If no takers, sure, keep him because we're pretty thin at guard, but he has to perform better this season with the money he is getting (only Cam, Short, and Shaq are making more per year).

This team will look similar next season in terms of names, but there will be some changes and cutting some fat will be good for us in the bigger picture. Embrace it, folks.

[steven8989]

Bradberry and Trai are young which I wouldn't pay but when you hear CMC is a possibility of being traded. Whoa boy that doesn't sound good at all.

[Waldo]

It's really a case by case basis. The guys who don't represent what the new coaches want to do and how they want it done will be gone. The older guys that will be expensive and looking to compete will mercifully be gone. The young guys that don't fit the new directions will be gone. Hopefully the underperformers that got cushy seats with the last staff will be gone (it was an issue and shows with a few of our guys).

It's going to take time to get a clear picture of the new vision for the team. There are some ingrained philosophies and expectations that are about to change for everyone. This part I am hopeful about. Ron built mediocrity, good and bad were second place to his core which was protected, even when they should not have been.

So far, I have no issues. How they build the lines and where they see players there is what I want to see this offseason. Scheme changes a lot of values.

[Jens]

16 minutes ago, lightsout said:

With the talk about Mario, Trai, Cam, Bradberry, McCoy, etc. all re-signing or being released or traded, there are things I think people overlook.

Why would a franchise keep older players or cut younger players during a "rebuild"? I've seen some wondering why we're bringing back Cam and possibly not bringing back Trai. Why not re-sign Bradberry? Why not bring back McCoy (and some saying for God's sake, don't bring back McCoy)?

Look back at 2010 to 2011 roster turnover when Ron got hired. Look at practically every coaching change and the subsequent roster turnover. New staff comes in, evaluates the roster, and presents a list of guys they absolutely want back. They talk with the guys, figure out who fits their system and the culture they want, and they sort the roster out before and after the draft so they can have the best chance for success.
 

When we think "rebuild", the immediate assumption is "keep the young guys, cut the older guys, and you're starting from scratch with very little in the hopes of building it up". That's not exactly what a rebuild necessarily has to be. Every coaching change leads to rebuilding, in a sense. We're simply going to keep the guys that are best equipped to help the new staff execute their plan. That's all. Some of these players will be veterans, some will be young guys. Young guys are generally safe because they have cheaper contracts and upside to work with. This is BEFORE you look at the business and analytical side of things. Let's look at some of the free agents.


Dontari Poe: going to be released because he was generally not very good for us. Got tossed several times which lead to big runs. 30 year old DT with either not enough left in the tank or not enough effort or both. Not good for the team moving forward. Arguably struggled due to scheme and the rest of the defense struggling as well.

Gerald McCoy: Not bad most of the season. But at 32 years old, he will be on the decline and not worth the financial investment. Can get similar production for cheaper.

Mario Addison: Showed some good stuff, but again a 32 year old. If he does come back, it will be a short term deal to fill a gap in the roster. Why keep this 32 year old and not McCoy? Because Irvin.

Bruce Irvin: Irvin is 33 and not going to return unless he is fine with a one year deal to go out on. Given the youth at the position, he's expendable even though he played well in his snaps and seemed to be good in the locker room. If you keep Addison, you release Irvin and vice versa, just to have another year of veteran leadership here for Burns and Miller.

Kyle Love, Vernon Butler: One of these two is gone and I think it has to be Love. Butler is younger and they perform the same duties, and I personally am not high on Love. Likely drafting a DT in the first three rounds, so the release of both Poe and McCoy won't mean keeping both of these two UNLESS Love comes on a one year deal to fill a gap in the roster if we don't like other FA options.

Tre Boston: Lots of speculation after the season that Boston was part of a group wanting to leave together and play elsewhere together. Boston knows that the FA process isn't something that he wants to test because other than us, he didn't garner a ton of interest elsewhere. If he wants to come back on another short term deal, he could help in the back end. If not, he's gone. He has to buy into the new staff and be a leader.


This is just the big name defensive FAs, but using a similar mindset, you can guess how the offensive FAs are likely being viewed.

Why trade Trai? He's just honestly not been very great. 6 sacks allowed in 13 games, which is his highest career total and more than his three previous seasons combined. His PFF grade is really average, and he stands to make $12m this season and $15.3m in 2021 before becoming a UFA in 2022. Trading that away would help us more than hurt us. If no takers, sure, keep him because we're pretty thin at guard, but he has to perform better this season with the money he is getting (only Cam, Short, and Shaq are making more per year).

This team will look similar next season in terms of names, but there will be some changes and cutting some fat will be good for us in the bigger picture. Embrace it, folks.

Great summary. We are going to have some tough years ahead of us.

[4Corners]

19 minutes ago, steven8989 said:

Bradberry and Trai are young which I wouldn't pay but when you hear CMC is a possibility of being traded. Whoa boy that doesn't sound good at all.

Ya know Stephanie, you just don’t get it do you

they aren’t trading CMC. Good Lord. 

[lightsout]

27 minutes ago, steven8989 said:

Bradberry and Trai are young which I wouldn't pay but when you hear CMC is a possibility of being traded. Whoa boy that doesn't sound good at all.

 

Yeah there is literally no way we trade away CMC. A team would have to give up their top 3 picks this year, as well as a 1st next year for me to even blink at an offer. And they'd have to be top half of the draft order as well this year. Not happening. CMC is far too young and valuable. The earliest you may ever see CMC elsewhere is if we simply can't afford what he requires after his contract is up, and even then I say you sacrifice somebody like Samuel and maybe ship Shaq depending on our LB situation when that arises.

[Khyber53]

Good stuff here. Regime change is going to be tough and there will be some keepers and leavers that are going to make us scratch our heads.

And before the draft, you really can't trust any of the words coming from "sources" within the camps. It's disinformation season. 

I think we're going to see a lot of those 1 year free agents remain that. Irvin, McCoy, others were brought in last season to save Rivera's job and hopefully make some magic happen. They ended up being meh... Irvin and McCoy went after their sacks, but neither did much of the dirty work in tackling, run defense -- anything that didn't pad their personal stat sheets or bank accounts.

Boston, on the other hand really seemed to be interested in playing hard for the team and had one of his best half seasons. He was in on tackling and certainly did his part on pass defense. Was he one of the best in the NFL? Nah. He did a good journeyman's job and if he can do it again for the new guys, he'll do just fine. He's a good transition player, too, having been on the work line trying to find another team before. It gives one a bit of perspective, if you know what I mean. 

Trai, I'm sorry, I'm just hoping that somewhere a team is just looking to snatch him up. He just hasn't pulled much around here (his weight, or even as a pulling guard) over the last couple of years -- except he has pulled some fat paychecks. Maybe he and Daryl Williams can be a combo pickup somewhere..

[lightsout]

27 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

I think we're going to see a lot of those 1 year free agents remain that. Irvin, McCoy, others were brought in last season to save Rivera's job and hopefully make some magic happen. They ended up being meh... Irvin and McCoy went after their sacks, but neither did much of the dirty work in tackling, run defense -- anything that didn't pad their personal stat sheets or bank accounts.

 

 

 

Gonna disagree mildly here. Irvin was used primarily in pass rush scenarios, especially as the season wore on and Burns had his snaps reduced, for some reason. He did actually do well in run d but that's where the OLB position in the 3-4 gets looked at differently than the 4-3. Same for McCoy in that 3-4. McCoy didn't do bad. He had a few snaps where he got absolutely worked, but he held up more times than not inside.

In the 3-4, Irvin, Addison, Burns, their job is to contain outside unless there is no receiver outside of them and we're in a zone (then that corner is outside run contain, that OLB has to attack the line and take away C/D gaps, force it to the sideline where the CB can force. So while they might not have the tackles in run D, they play their role in the overall defensive scheme. Tackles for inside backers are designed to be higher for a 3-4 than OLB. In a 4-3, that DE takes the role of the 3-4 OLB, DTs are attacking more than holding up blocks, so they get more tackles there than 3-4 DL, generally speaking.

In simpler terms, 4-3 DL need to attack more and clog up lanes inside so the LBs can get to the edges when the runs bounce outside, 3-4 DL need to hold up blocks and command double teams so LBs can fill those gaps and force the action outside where your OLB and DBs can come up in run support.

So while I don't want either Irvin or McCoy back as I think they're replaceable for cheaper (which is important with big contracts coming in a couple years), I hate the talking point that those two were padding sack numbers and not doing much else around here because it's simply not true when you watch the film. We needed a young stud NT and a healthy Short to play DE (so that those two could draw more double teams, allowing LBs to flow better) to make the 3-4 scheme work and we didn't have that. We saw the results.

[WOW!!]

1 hour ago, lightsout said:

With the talk about Mario, Trai, Cam, Bradberry, McCoy, etc. all re-signing or being released or traded, there are things I think people overlook.

Why would a franchise keep older players or cut younger players during a "rebuild"? I've seen some wondering why we're bringing back Cam and possibly not bringing back Trai. Why not re-sign Bradberry? Why not bring back McCoy (and some saying for God's sake, don't bring back McCoy)?

Look back at 2010 to 2011 roster turnover when Ron got hired. Look at practically every coaching change and the subsequent roster turnover. New staff comes in, evaluates the roster, and presents a list of guys they absolutely want back. They talk with the guys, figure out who fits their system and the culture they want, and they sort the roster out before and after the draft so they can have the best chance for success.
 

When we think "rebuild", the immediate assumption is "keep the young guys, cut the older guys, and you're starting from scratch with very little in the hopes of building it up". That's not exactly what a rebuild necessarily has to be. Every coaching change leads to rebuilding, in a sense. We're simply going to keep the guys that are best equipped to help the new staff execute their plan. That's all. Some of these players will be veterans, some will be young guys. Young guys are generally safe because they have cheaper contracts and upside to work with. This is BEFORE you look at the business and analytical side of things. Let's look at some of the free agents.


Dontari Poe: going to be released because he was generally not very good for us. Got tossed several times which lead to big runs. 30 year old DT with either not enough left in the tank or not enough effort or both. Not good for the team moving forward. Arguably struggled due to scheme and the rest of the defense struggling as well.

Gerald McCoy: Not bad most of the season. But at 32 years old, he will be on the decline and not worth the financial investment. Can get similar production for cheaper.

Mario Addison: Showed some good stuff, but again a 32 year old. If he does come back, it will be a short term deal to fill a gap in the roster. Why keep this 32 year old and not McCoy? Because Irvin.

Bruce Irvin: Irvin is 33 and not going to return unless he is fine with a one year deal to go out on. Given the youth at the position, he's expendable even though he played well in his snaps and seemed to be good in the locker room. If you keep Addison, you release Irvin and vice versa, just to have another year of veteran leadership here for Burns and Miller.

Kyle Love, Vernon Butler: One of these two is gone and I think it has to be Love. Butler is younger and they perform the same duties, and I personally am not high on Love. Likely drafting a DT in the first three rounds, so the release of both Poe and McCoy won't mean keeping both of these two UNLESS Love comes on a one year deal to fill a gap in the roster if we don't like other FA options.

Tre Boston: Lots of speculation after the season that Boston was part of a group wanting to leave together and play elsewhere together. Boston knows that the FA process isn't something that he wants to test because other than us, he didn't garner a ton of interest elsewhere. If he wants to come back on another short term deal, he could help in the back end. If not, he's gone. He has to buy into the new staff and be a leader.


This is just the big name defensive FAs, but using a similar mindset, you can guess how the offensive FAs are likely being viewed.

Why trade Trai? He's just honestly not been very great. 6 sacks allowed in 13 games, which is his highest career total and more than his three previous seasons combined. His PFF grade is really average, and he stands to make $12m this season and $15.3m in 2021 before becoming a UFA in 2022. Trading that away would help us more than hurt us. If no takers, sure, keep him because we're pretty thin at guard, but he has to perform better this season with the money he is getting (only Cam, Short, and Shaq are making more per year).

This team will look similar next season in terms of names, but there will be some changes and cutting some fat will be good for us in the bigger picture. Embrace it, folks.

What were the roster TO in 2001 (fox) , and 2010 (Rivera)?? 

Is it comparable now??

I don't remember losing this much in 1 offseason or having this many holes on a roster for a new regime to fill...

[hepcat]

When a new coaching staff comes in, usually in 2-3 seasons the entire team is different save for a handful of key players.

Going forward I don't see any players other than past 1st round picks like CMC, Shaq Thompson, DJ Moore, and Brian Burns, being on the team in 3 years. After that maaaaybe we see later round guys like Taylor Moton, Ian Thomas, Curtis Samuel, and Donte Jackson depending on how they develop. Hell JJ Jansen who has been on the team since 2009 might not even be on the roster in 3 years - he's 34 years old!

After that I really don't see any guys on the current roster being on the team in 3 years. Get ready for massive turnover and a lot of guys you don't recognize on the team.

[WOW!!]

1 minute ago, hepcat said:

When a new coaching staff comes in, usually in 2-3 seasons the entire team is different save for a handful of key players.

Going forward I don't see any players other than past 1st round picks like CMC, Shaq Thompson, DJ Moore, and Brian Burns, being on the team in 3 years. After that maaaaybe we see later round guys like Taylor Moton, Ian Thomas, Curtis Samuel, and Donte Jackson depending on how they develop. Hell JJ Jansen who has been on the team since 2009 might not even be on the roster in 3 years - he's 34 years old!

After that I really don't see any guys on the current roster being on the team in 3 years. Get ready for massive turnover and a lot of guys you don't recognize on the team.

And the team not being competitive for 5 years..

[lightsout]

Just now, WOW!! said:

What were the roster TO in 2001 (fox) , and 2010 (Rivera)?? 

Is it comparable now??

I don't remember losing this much in 1 offseason or having this many holes on a roster for a new regime to fill...

 2000-2001 turnover positions

QB
RB (kinda. Biakabutuka played 5 games in 01, and Hoover was there)
OL (some fair turnover, only Chris Terry, Jeno James, and Jamar Nesbit returned)
DL (starters mostly in tact, lost depth guys)
CB saw one change
Safety saw Eugene Robinson leave
Kicker and Punter both changed


2010-2011 turnover positions
QB
TE
OL (almost the same, different starters at RG and RT)
DE (only CJ remained from 2010)
DT (overhaul here)
LB (depth turnover)
K

 

[WOW!!]

2 minutes ago, lightsout said:

 2000-2001 turnover positions

QB
RB (kinda. Biakabutuka played 5 games in 01, and Hoover was there)
OL (some fair turnover, only Chris Terry, Jeno James, and Jamar Nesbit returned)
DL (starters mostly in tact, lost depth guys)
CB saw one change
Safety saw Eugene Robinson leave
Kicker and Punter both changed


2010-2011 turnover positions
QB
TE
OL (almost the same, different starters at RG and RT)
DE (only CJ remained from 2010)
DT (overhaul here)
LB (depth turnover)
K

 

So 2001 

Fox kept the Defense intact which had Jenkins,  Rucker, and Buck on it.  Dan Morgan and Witherspoon were still our LB'S and you had Minter at safety.. THe offense still had Smitty and Muhammad and the Oline was mostly intact..

2010..

You still had Beason, TD, James Anderson CJ, but you had to redo the defense for the most part.. But the offense was pretty intact...Gross, Kali, Wharton and Piggy oline.. Smitty, Dwill, Stew, and Lafell 

Yeah this looks different...  The way this is going so far it's looking like a expansion team...

 

[lightsout]

7 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

So 2001 

Fox kept the Defense intact which had Jenkins,  Rucker, and Buck on it.  Dan Morgan and Witherspoon were still our LB'S and you had Minter at safety.. THe offense still had Smitty and Muhammad and the Oline was mostly intact..

2010..

You still had Beason, TD, James Anderson CJ, but you had to redo the defense for the most part.. But the offense was pretty intact...Gross, Kali, Wharton and Piggy oline.. Smitty, Dwill, Stew, and Lafell 

Yeah this looks different...  The way this is going so far it's looking like a expansion team...

 

 

Not much different. We have a returning QB, RB, WR, lost Olsen but the TE position is the same, OL I'm expecting some shifting but at least 2-3 starters will remain I expect. Defensively, DL is our big turnover spot and CB will likely look different if we don't get JB back and safety has been a revolving door for a while. A lot of the core of the team is returning though, particularly offensively. And remember, we still have FA and draft to go. The roster will fill out better than you expect. Or at least I'm hoping that's the case.