How many GM's draft better than Hurney?

[kungfoodude]

3 hours ago, panther4life said:

I feel like it’s simpler to review each year and see how are draft classes stack up against others.

In terms of weighing it, I’d give more credit to hitting on the first 3 rounds. For example, if a GM finds a few gems in the late rounds but consistently misses in early rounds, then he just got lucky. If you knew a player was going to be so great, why did you wait til the 6th round to grab him and proceed to draft 3 bust before hand in earlier rounds?  

I think hitting on first rounders is more important than anything. They give you the 5th year option and make star players much more affordable. They are expected to start right away as well. If for some reason you can’t find a player you like in the first, you can then trade it for a proven commodity. 

I think trying to quantify by stats alone would be tough. But if you insist here are some things I’d consider. 

Total number of starts for each players career would be a good start. Then you could look up individual accolades, for instance where does a WR drafted in 2013 stack up against every other receiver drafted that year in receptions,yards and TD’s?  

P

Well PFR literally has a season and career metric that is specifically made to grade a season based on the player's production. All you really have to do is take each GM, compile the ratings of their draft picks and spot out the numbers(AV/year, Best class AV/CarAV, etc, etc.). Most of those variables you mention are listed in those.

The only reason I might consider doing a reverse weight is that the first three rounds are typically much higher success rates than 4th to 7th. 

[Pantherzack179812]

2 hours ago, RumHam said:

For those who give him credit for first rounders, could literally anyone else get those right? I give him credit for luke but he was also the best at a position that wasn't highly sought that Year. Anyone would have chosen cam. Cmc was a risk bc hes a rb and we didn't go fornette or cook. Burns is a bust and DJ isn't a true #1 according to smitty

Umm... 

1. A lot of people hated the Luke pick, Jon Beason was our MLB and many felt it was a waste. It's easier to say that now.

2. CMC was a Gettleman pick (Literally one of his only good picks)

3. Burns is a bust for struggling with injuries his first year? Thomas Davis freaking had 3 ACL tears. 

4.DJ Moore was top 5 in receiving yards in the NFL, Steve Smith thinks anybody who is not crazy like him is bad, hell he's the one who said he was the first WR who could replace him. I love him, but that's just how he is. 

5. Donte Jackson was in contention for DROY before the Steelers game, don't throw him in the trash because you got offended by a frustrated 24 year old on a 5-11 football team with a crappy interim HC. 

6. Julius Peppers is a HOFer.. 

Hurney is arguably the best 1st round drafter I've ever seen.

 

[SmokinwithWilly]

4 hours ago, The Natural said:

As has been mentioned ad nauseam Marty Hurney isn't a great GM but since his return he has been an upgrade to what we had before. Injuries have derailed the past two seasons but you'd be hard pressed to knock his drafts or work in FA. Could we do better? Yes. Are we doing better than the Giants? Yes.

I've critiqued our 2019 draft earlier and proved fairly easily Hurney's lack of vision for the future. His FA moves haven't worked out. He restructured KKs contract horribly. Injuries didnt wreck our last 2 seasons, his piss poor planning did. 

Just because he's doing better doesnt mean he actually is doing a good job.

[thefuzz]

On 2/28/2020 at 9:20 AM, Happy Panther said:

ok

If you are a GM that fields more losing teams, than starting ones, especially when you have a track record as long as Marty does.....well, I'm not sure what to tell you.

If said GM was taking over a rebuilding team, and is in the job less than 3 years, yea, I can agree that he is not yet what his record is...but a GM that has over a decade long rap sheet?  Yea, time to start using that W/L record.

[Waldo]

No idea but it would be fun to see a ridiculously detailed look at this. I don't watch much of the rest of the NFL but the other GM that reminds me of Hurney is Kiem in Arizona and that's terrifying as a fan. We got the clean version and they got the drunk driving one. Yikes. GMs that are there for their billionair owners personal assistant and not their production or winning.

[Happy Panther]

1 hour ago, thefuzz said:

If you are a GM that fields more losing teams, than starting ones, especially when you have a track record as long as Marty does.....well, I'm not sure what to tell you.

If said GM was taking over a rebuilding team, and is in the job less than 3 years, yea, I can agree that he is not yet what his record is...but a GM that has over a decade long rap sheet?  Yea, time to start using that W/L record.

Well Marty is 98-110 as a GM which is offset by 5-3 in the playoffs and a bad kick away from a ring. That's not terrible and not excellent which is pretty much how I describe Hurney.

But a GM's performance will only be partially correlated with W-L. I think GMs should be judged based on the evidence in front of them in April. There haven't been many drafts where I thought a pick was terrible. Pilares was a short WR coming off a torn knee but was a 5th rounder so I shrugged. Amrmati Edwards was called out by many. But the GM has no control over players after draft night. Should Gettleman have known Kelvin Benjamin would get inured and become a lazy tubn of goo? Maybe but this isn't the movie draft day. I doubt he could have known.

We were amazed that we had two starting caliber  OTs in September. Then it all fell apart. Is that on Hurney? Not really. Daley was a stud by week 6.

 

[thefuzz]

1 minute ago, Happy Panther said:

Well Marty is 98-110 as a GM which is offset by 5-3 in the playoffs and a bad kick away from a ring. That's not terrible and not excellent which is pretty much how I describe Hurney.

But a GM's performance will only be partially correlated with W-L. I think GMs should be judged based on the evidence in front of them in April. There haven't been many drafts where I thought a pick was terrible. Pilares was a short WR coming off a torn knee but was a 5th rounder so I shrugged. Amrmati Edwards was called out by many. But the GM has no control over players after draft night. Should Gettleman have known Kelvin Benjamin would get inured and become a lazy tubn of goo? Maybe but this isn't the movie draft day. I doubt he could have known.

We were amazed that we had two starting caliber  OTs in September. Then it all fell apart. Is that on Hurney? Not really. Daley was a stud by week 6.

 

The draft is a very small portion of the GM's job, at the end of the day, your total job is to field a team capable of winning your division, and making it to the playoffs.

Marty Hurney has failed at his job far more often that he has excelled, his staying here is a commitment to below average football.  I get that many here are perfectly fine with that, I am not.

I have very little faith in a team that can't do better than Marty Hurney.

[45catfan]

I find it hilarious Hurney gets so much freaking credit for hitting on a #1 overall pick.  Sure Cam wasn't a consensus pick, but come on.  Really how much back patting is needed for a #1 overall not sucking????????

Credit on Luke. I will give credit where it is due, but we are still talking about a  top 10 pick.  I wonder what his track record would be like if we were consistently good (ironic, huh?) and picked in the 20's more time than not?

[Happy Panther]

2 hours ago, 45catfan said:

I find it hilarious Hurney gets so much freaking credit for hitting on a #1 overall pick.  Sure Cam wasn't a consensus pick, but come on.  Really how much back patting is needed for a #1 overall not sucking????????

Credit on Luke. I will give credit where it is due, but we are still talking about a  top 10 pick.  I wonder what his track record would be like if we were consistently good (ironic, huh?) and picked in the 20's more time than not?

I haven't seen anyone harping on the #1 pick. He gets credit for pretty much always nailing the first round.

As for higher picks:

19th - Jeff Otah

25th Jon Beason

27th Deangelo Williams

14th Thomas Davis

28th Chris Gamble

24th DJ Moore

16th Brian Burns

As for the rest:

2nd Julius Peppers

8th Jordan Gross

14th Thomas Davis

13th Jonathon Stewart

9th Luke

 

 

[SmokinwithWilly]

25 minutes ago, Happy Panther said:

I haven't seen anyone harping on the #1 pick. He gets credit for pretty much always nailing the first round.

As for higher picks:

19th - Jeff Otah - bust. out of the league in 3 years 

25th Jon Beason - good pick

27th Deangelo Williams - 5 of next 9 RBs in the first 4 rounds were pro bowlers. Not an amazing pick. 

14th Thomas Davis - rookie contract bust. 3 torn ACLs. Once healed amazing.

28th Chris Gamble - good pick

24th DJ Moore - looking good but too soon to call

16th Brian Burns - edge rusher in a 3-4 defense. Ron was headed out the door. Doesnt make sense going back to 4-3 less than a year later

As for the rest:

2nd Julius Peppers - consensus best player in draft. no brainer

8th Jordan Gross - thanks Minni

13th Jonathon Stewart -  good RB, but I think early 1st round picks on RBs aren't necessary. They can be found later 

9th Luke - excellent pick

 

2010 17th pick - Everette Brown - Bust

[Happy Panther]

6 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

2010 17th pick - Everette Brown - Bust

Um...

[SmokinwithWilly]

9 minutes ago, Happy Panther said:

Um...

Hurney traded away our 2010 1st to take Brown in 2009 2nd round. It counts.

[Happy Panther]

7 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

Hurney traded away our 2010 1st to take Brown in 2009 2nd round. It counts.

No it doesn't count. We are discussing Hurney's first round picks. Brown was chosen 43rd.

If you want to make a list of bad draft trades by Hurney this counts. And as a bad 2nd round pick. You don't need to do mental gymnastics.

[45catfan]

45 minutes ago, Happy Panther said:

I haven't seen anyone harping on the #1 pick. He gets credit for pretty much always nailing the first round.

As for higher picks:

19th - Jeff Otah

25th Jon Beason

27th Deangelo Williams

14th Thomas Davis

28th Chris Gamble

24th DJ Moore

16th Brian Burns

As for the rest:

2nd Julius Peppers

8th Jordan Gross

14th Thomas Davis

13th Jonathon Stewart

9th Luke

 

 

I'll give him props for those 3 in bold.  Otah was promising for sure, but we will never know how he would have ended up due to injuries.  Moore and Burns, we will see...it's early.  The rest are still top half of the draft.  Sorry, I can't be convinced Marty is some sort of drafting guru.  I think...being completely honest, he's missed the big bust out of shear luck.  If he is that good at evaluating talent, the starkness between the best handful of players and the next couple of tiers shouldn't be like night and day.  I understand the probability of second or third rounders sticking is less likely, but the freaking cliff plunge in success is stark.  The drop off in success rate is predictable and to be expected, but not like he completely forgets how to draft after round one altogether.