Trade down for an OT?

[AU-panther]

A lot of people on this forum seem determined to draft an OT with our first pick.  Personally I'm not convinced that the value lines up with our draft position.  We are picking 7th, there is a really good chance 3 QBs go before us so in theory we could end with the 4th non QB off of the board.

Ignore the QBs for the sake of this discussion.  Pretty much every list out there has Young as the best player.  Pretty much every list has Okuda as the best CB, Simmons as the best LB type, and Brown as the best DT.  Those 4 guys are pretty much in the top 5 of every list or ranking you see.  That 5th and 6th player is where you start to see a bunch of variance.

In regards to OT I see 3 different ones (Thomas, Wirfs, Wills) listed as the best depending on which ranking you see.  There doesnt seem to be a Pace or Odgen in the draft, that isn't saying one or more of them won't become pro bowlers, just from an evaluation standpoint their isn't one in the top tier or prospects, which is kind of line with what Verge said in his tread.

Seems to me at 7 you take Okuda or Brown, or you trade down if you are want to chase OT need.  At 12 you might get Wirfs or Thomas, who might be who you were willing to take at 7.

Personally, I think Young is in a tier by himself, and then that next tier is Okuda, Simmons, and Brown.  Of course this might change after the combine but after those 4 see to be the "value" plays at 7.  Here again I'm ignoring QBs, if a QB is there that you like you have to consider them.  You almost draft QBs by a different set of rules, they are just that much more important than any other position.  A good QB will add way more wins to your team than an "elite" any thing else.

 

[MHS831]

I completely understand the logic here, and so much depends on free agency, but I would like to share my perspective on some of your points:

I think we are looking QB, but we cannot discuss it yet.  I have not seen, however, any evidence of communication with a QB at the EW game or Senior Bowl.  That could be by design.  However, if 3 QBs go before us, that means 3 non-QBs go before us---Young and Okudah seem to be locks.

The wildcard is Detroit.  They are in a key position to move out of that spot or they could shock the draft by grabbing a QB not named Burrow.   Either way, it should not involve us that much--unless Love becomes an act of desperation for some team--like Carolina. 

Please see the thread I just posted this morning about DT.  We need 4 of them (gonna release Poe, in my best guess).  Let's say we sign 2 free agent DTs, we will still need 2 draft picks.   I just do not see how OL (Marty will assume Little is developing and Daley can play LG--and Paradis' leg is stronger---it will be his downfall) gets a first-round consideration.

I would like to add that the concussion concern (think Blind side) is a factor that could give Marty an out. 

Having said that, I see Simmons as the kind of player Marty likes.  I do not see how he leaves him on the table--and he might be the BPA---

Good thread.  Thanks for sharing.

 

[TheMaulClaw]

I think you draft the BPA unless a team calls with a really good deal.  We do have a lot of holes, but we also need some top end talent.

[chknwing]

There's a significant drop-off in Talent after the first 3 ots.  They could quite possibly be a run on them right after our pick.  If we trade down it should only be a couple of spots or we can trade ourself right out of one of the top OTs

[Mr. Scot]

Remind me: Outside of the year we drafted Beason, has Marty ever traded down in the first?

I know he's traded up a few times in the first and second.

[45catfan]

I could see us moving back to the Raiders (still can't say Las Vegas) or the Colts.  Gruden has seemingly given up on Carr and if Love blows up at the combine and his Pro day, this may be  areal possibility.  Everyone know the Colts are in the QB market, but for some reason, I've not seen them projected to move up outside of a few mock locally (myself included in one of those mocks).  Apparently people think Herbert of Love will fall to them, but will they?  My prediction is if Herbert or Love goes to the Chargers, some folks those two particular war rooms will start getting very nervous and that could benefit us.

Now, on the flip side, I'm not just a trade down no matter what...it depends on what shakes out.  If Brown AND Okunda are gone, then I'm for it.  We need defense.  I'm iffy on Simmons. No question he has great athletic ability, but is he a generational LB in terms of his knowledge of the game?  Not so sure on that one and I think people are completely infatuated with his measurables.

In short, I'm okay trading down in the right scenario, but not if a key cog of the future is still on the board at #7.  If that were to occur, yes, OT would definitely be a target several spots later with someone like Becton.

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

I completely understand the logic here, and so much depends on free agency, but I would like to share my perspective on some of your points:

I think we are looking QB, but we cannot discuss it yet.  I have not seen, however, any evidence of communication with a QB at the EW game or Senior Bowl.  That could be by design.  However, if 3 QBs go before us, that means 3 non-QBs go before us---Young and Okudah seem to be locks.

The wildcard is Detroit.  They are in a key position to move out of that spot or they could shock the draft by grabbing a QB not named Burrow.   Either way, it should not involve us that much--unless Love becomes an act of desperation for some team--like Carolina. 

Please see the thread I just posted this morning about DT.  We need 4 of them (gonna release Poe, in my best guess).  Let's say we sign 2 free agent DTs, we will still need 2 draft picks.   I just do not see how OL (Marty will assume Little is developing and Daley can play LG--and Paradis' leg is stronger---it will be his downfall) gets a first-round consideration.

I would like to add that the concussion concern (think Blind side) is a factor that could give Marty an out. 

Having said that, I see Simmons as the kind of player Marty likes.  I do not see how he leaves him on the table--and he might be the BPA---

Good thread.  Thanks for sharing.

 

I definitely agree that Simmons could be in play, and he should be, but I'm not convinced Okuda is a lock to not be there.  He shouldn't be and most likely won't but what if Cincy takes Burrow, Miami trades to 2 to take Tua, Detroit then would take Young.  Giants and Gettleman could possible pass on Okuda.  Washington could pick him and then San Diego could go QB.  So basically for Okuda to drop to us in that situation the Giants and Washington would both have to pass, which isn't too far fetched.  I definitely could see Gettleman passing on a CB, heck he might go Brown.  He likes his big guys.

Definitely seems like the realistic options for us, if we don't go QB, are Okuda, Simmons, or Brown.  Anyone else almost feels like a trade down candidate.

[Dex]

Ya'll gonna flip when Hurney selects Patrick Queen at 7.

[SmokinwithWilly]

I've done several mocks trading down, sometimes several times in the first, to add 2nd round picks. My usual trading partner has been the Raiders or a Jax/Indy combo (7>9>13). One mock(my favorite) I actually traded down 5 times (7>9>11>13>16), added 5 2nd rounders then traded 4 of those to add 2 1st rounders in the 20s. Ended up with picks 16, 22, and 24. 

We have so many holes it makes sense to give up one of the top tier talents(A+) to be able to grab 2 or 3 next tier talents (A-). My bigger problem though is I have absolutely zero faith in Hurney to be able to draft with any type of actual plan. How much Rhule plays into that remains to be seen, but I really dont want another draft like last year. I've posted in several different threads why I thought last years draft made zero sense.

My feelings haven't changed and I am worried that Hunrey will draft trying to add a couple pieces for a SB run which will inevitably fail(his typical draft style) instead of actually being able to recognize team needs and draft players who will be part of a planned building process.

[davos]

Vegas has (3) third rounders along with 12 and 19.  I could see them using pick 80 and 12 (with a 2021 2nd-ish) to get to 7 if Simmons is the only one left there.  Gruden wants someone to run that defense.  His next Derrick Brooks.  They have the ammo and love trading. 

[AU-panther]

18 minutes ago, davos said:

Vegas has (3) third rounders along with 12 and 19.  I could see them using pick 80 and 12 (with a 2021 2nd-ish) to get to 7 if Simmons is the only one left there.  Gruden wants someone to run that defense.  His next Derrick Brooks.  They have the ammo and love trading. 

Their 12 and 19 is pretty close to our 7 and 38 on the charts.  How many people here would trade our 1st and 2nd for their two first.  I would defiantly consider it.

 

2 hours ago, chknwing said:

There's a significant drop-off in Talent after the first 3 ots.  They could quite possibly be a run on them right after our pick.  If we trade down it should only be a couple of spots or we can trade ourself right out of one of the top OTs

I'm not talking about going to 20+.  Just going from 7 to 12 is a a late second, like pick 60.  Even if all three tackles are gone by 12 would you prefer Wirfs at 7 or Kinlaw at 12 plus a quality receiver at 60.  Or Lamb at 12 plus a second round tackle?

[LinvilleGorge]

There will be more clarity after the Combine. Seems like there usually is after the media has an opportunity to speak with numerous sources from numerous teams.

[45catfan]

What will Gettleman do?  That's the million dollar question.  Everything hinges on this.  Cincy-Burrow, Skins-95% Young, Lions-defense (Okunda or Brown), Giants-OL, Brown/Okundah, Simmons, trade back for more picks?????? Dolphins- QB, Chargers-QB or OL.

Dave holds the skeleton key for us.  How freaking ironic?

In the odd scenario of OL being our best pick (Dave shockingly skips on his hog molly and Chargers go QB), I would most definitely trade back.

[RumHam]

3 hours ago, AU-panther said:

A lot of people on this forum seem determined to draft an OT with our first pick.  Personally I'm not convinced that the value lines up with our draft position.  We are picking 7th, there is a really good chance 3 QBs go before us so in theory we could end with the 4th non QB off of the board.

Ignore the QBs for the sake of this discussion.  Pretty much every list out there has Young as the best player.  Pretty much every list has Okuda as the best CB, Simmons as the best LB type, and Brown as the best DT.  Those 4 guys are pretty much in the top 5 of every list or ranking you see.  That 5th and 6th player is where you start to see a bunch of variance.

In regards to OT I see 3 different ones (Thomas, Wirfs, Wills) listed as the best depending on which ranking you see.  There doesnt seem to be a Pace or Odgen in the draft, that isn't saying one or more of them won't become pro bowlers, just from an evaluation standpoint their isn't one in the top tier or prospects, which is kind of line with what Verge said in his tread.

Seems to me at 7 you take Okuda or Brown, or you trade down if you are want to chase OT need.  At 12 you might get Wirfs or Thomas, who might be who you were willing to take at 7.

Personally, I think Young is in a tier by himself, and then that next tier is Okuda, Simmons, and Brown.  Of course this might change after the combine but after those 4 see to be the "value" plays at 7.  Here again I'm ignoring QBs, if a QB is there that you like you have to consider them.  You almost draft QBs by a different set of rules, they are just that much more important than any other position.  A good QB will add way more wins to your team than an "elite" any thing else.

 

You literally have to wait until after the combine. It exists for a reason. Someone could jump up. All of a sudden that guy who isn't worth it now is. Problem is, if we do trade down, it'll be b/c someone wants a QB and unless its Herbert, we will probably take that QB. I just don't see it happening.