CMC Trade Talk (Might as well get it out there)

[rippadonn]

3 minutes ago, stbugs said:

You are so wrong. We’ve tanked twice and got to the SB both times or did you forget? Mediocrity is what we’ve had since 2016. Maybe you get to the playoffs once in a while but it’s usually a first round exit. Sure, the Browns continually rebuild but that’s because they drafted like ass. One year of a terrible team and a few of a bad team isn’t a cancer. You’re being overly dramatic. There are many cases of a horrific record starting multi-year playoff runs. Us in 2001, 2010, Indy after Harbaugh got Manning and then got Luck, etc. You have to draft well when you are bottom feeding (usually a bad year before the tank, the tank year and 1-2 years after. Get the right guys and you’re back in the game. Draft like the Browns and you’re not. 

Nobody goes full tankard, everybody knows that.

After horrible years you have to bounce back or else, yes, Panthers did that.

The last administration isn't as bad as most of you say. You may not like Vanilla ice cream but vanilla ice cream wins.

[stbugs]

1 minute ago, rippadonn said:

Nobody goes full tankard, everybody knows that.

After horrible years you have to bounce back or else, yes, Panthers did that.

The last administration isn't as bad as most of you say. You may not like Vanilla ice cream but vanilla ice cream wins.

The last administration and Marty were there for the tanks. Jordan Gross mentioned that we purposely tanked getting rid of anyone who doesn’t fit the plan. Tepper has said we don’t want mediocrity. Show me a mediocre team that has won anything.

Those weren’t just bad years. Starting Grier and not really participating in FA is akin to starting Clausen. Teams that tank don’t say they are tanking, but they do. All I here in here is that Miami tried and got pick 5. They also have two other first round picks and probably get Tua as their new QB. It worked for them. They just happened to play the Jets and Cincy and NE when NE was running on fumes (hence the playoff loss). We mention that team but ignore our two tanks and how successful they were.

[TheRed]

12 minutes ago, stbugs said:

You are so wrong. We’ve tanked twice and got to the SB both times or did you forget? 

2001 and 2010 are long gone dude. The NFL is changing. You can't cling your hopes to poo like tanking thinking it will all magically fall into place for you.

[stbugs]

10 minutes ago, KatsAzz said:

The value for CMC will never be any higher than it currently is. The problem we have is that CMC may help us win enough games to be 8-8 team for a few years, which would hurt in drafting top players we would need to be constant winners.

He could very well be on a  downward trend skill wise with a big salary by the time we get the team built to the point of  resembling a contender. 

If (and this is a big if) some team was to offer us serious draft picks for him, there would never be a better time to accept the deal than the present.

CMC and Grier got us 6 total points the last two games (Allen got the 10 against NO). CMC and Grier isn’t getting a 5-11 team to 8-8 without Cam, Olsen and Kuechly, not to mention all the FAs we likely let walk like Bradberry and McCoy.

He’s 23. If someone gives us a deal we can’t refuse sure, but that won’t happen and he’s ideal for a rookie QB and he’ll still be in his prime. Heck, Rhule might actually be smart and lessen his load a bit the next couple years. 

[Jon Snow]

1 hour ago, AggieLean said:

CMC would be considered a WR1?

On this team anyway.

[Madwolf]

Say we trade CMC. Which FA wants to come here? And due to that ripple effect, how far back does that push the rebuild?

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, d-dave said:

I'm being logical with a small bit of emotions.  CMC will be the engine of the offense.  Regardless if it's Cam or Rookie QB, you are going to be going through CMC both running and catching passes.  Unless you get a Herschel Walker haul, there's no real replacement value for him.  That would be the only way I'd consider letting CMC out of Carolina.

I still think that you have to pay him.  He's 24 years old.  Now is the best time to pay him to actually earn the cash.  Nothing worse than paying a 28 year old RB (Think on that Marty!).  You take care of him, and he plays his contract out while a rookie QB is on their rookie deal.  CMC is a transcendent talent.  He's a building block who is still young.  If we can get Cam back to healthy, and square away our offensive line, then we can be competitive in 2020 while the defense is a work in progress.

To let him go for any reason other than a massive haul of picks and/or players would be foolish and a BAD investment.  

I think we are getting carried away with the "transcendent talent" stuff. He is basically LaDanian Tomlinson(not a knock on CMC, as LT is a HOF player). There have been a number of dual threat RB's in the NFL over the past 20 years(another one is currently in our division, BTW). He's an elite RB, arguably the best in the NFL currently due to that dual threat ability. 

The only downside to that, is that those elite RB's(even the ones who are great at receiving) recently don't seem to be able to produce enough to warrant the large contracts that they have been receiving.

 

 

[stbugs]

29 minutes ago, TheRed said:

2001 and 2010 are long gone dude. The NFL is changing. You can't cling your hopes to poo like tanking thinking it will all magically fall into place for you.

WTF does this mean? Long gone? Man, you guys can’t let go of Cam. He might be here a few more years but he probably won’t. Still, lol at clinging as if I enjoyed 2010. It was so fun. It got us Cam. Amazing that you can’t understand that it’s history and while you can try and make it seem like it’s a new NFL, the draft in. 2002 and 2011 are exactly the same as the draft in 2020 and 2021. Nothing has changed. If you’re the worst or 2nd worst you still pick 1st and 2nd.

Brace yourself for the tank in 2020. If we had a team that was a playoff contender for years like the Chiefs were before Mahomes then I could see just shooting for the missing piece. We aren’t, we are more like the 49ers where we’ll be drafting top 5-15 for a few years (hint it started in 2019’s draft). We don’t have a one piece away team. This is the year to suck for a QB. I’m ready and willing to watch how it goes.

[kungfoodude]

For reference.....

Let's take a look at our recent top paid RB's for comparison....

1. Ezekiel Elliott - Just signed his new contract this season. Fourth highest rushing total and 5th in rushing TD's in 2019. Dallas finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs.

2. Todd Gurley - Signed his new contract in July 2018. In 2018, third highest rushing total and 1st in rushing TD's. Rams finished 13-3 and lost the Super Bowl. In 2019, 20th in rushing total and 6th in rushing TD's. Rams finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs.

3. Le'Veon Bell - Signed his new contract with the NY Jets in the offseason. In 2019, 24th in the NFL in rushing total and 46th in rushing TD's. Jets finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs.

4. David Johnson - Signed a 3 year contract extension in September 2018. In 2018, 14th in rushing total and 17th in rushing TD's. Cardinals finished 3-13 and missed the playoffs. In 2019 he lost his starting job, finished 54th in rushing total and 69th in rushing TD's.

5. Devonta Freeman - Signed a 5 year contract extension in August 2017. In 2017, 18th in rushing total and 13th in rushing TD's. Falcons finished 10-6 and lost in the divisional round. In 2018, missed most of the season with injuries. Falcons finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs. In 2019, 29th in rushing total and 64th in rushing TD's. Falcons finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs.

6. Saquon Barkley - Drafted 2nd overall in 2018 NFL Draft. In 2018, 2nd in rushing total and 5th in rushing TD's. Giants finished 5-11 and missed the playoffs. In 2019, 16th in rushing total and 21st in rushing TD's. Giants finished 4-12 and missed the playoffs.

7. Jerick McKinnon - Signed a 4 year contract in March 2018. Has not played a game for 49ers due to ACL injuries.

8. Leonard Fournette - Drafted 4th overall in 2017 NFL Draft. In 2017, 8th in rushing total and 5th in rushing TD's. Jaguars finished 10-6 and lost in the AFC Championship game. In 2018 missed 8 games with hamstring injuries/suspension, 47th in rushing total and 32nd in rushing TD's. Jaguars finished 5-11 and missed the playoffs. In 2019, 7th in rushing total and 44th in rushing TD's. Jaguars finished 6-10 and missed the playoffs.

9. Lamar Miller - Signed a 4 year contract in 2016. In 2016, 10th in rushing total and 28th in rushing TD's. Texans finished 9-7 and lost in the Divisional game. In 2017, 16th in rushing total and 43rd in rushing TD's. Texans finished 4-12 and missed the playoffs. In 2018, finished 12th in rushing total and 26th in rushing TD's. Texans finished 11-5 and lost in the Wild Card game. In 2019 tore his ACL and played no games for the Texans.

10. Duke Johnson - Signed a 3 year contract extension in June 2018. In 2018 played games for Cleveland and Jacksonville(was traded to Jacksonville during the season), 86th in rushing total and no rushing TD's. In 2019 was traded to Houston Texans, 46th in rushing total and 68th in rushing TD's. Texans finished 10-6 and lost in the Divisional game. 

 

 

This is the core of the argument against paying RB's a lot of money, IMO. As you see, the guys getting big contracts don't experience consistent success. I eliminated the injury seasons(half or greater with missed time) and this was the result:

Top 10 Rushing Total Performances: 35%

Top 10 Rushing TD Performances: 29%

Playoff Berths: 35%

Winning Records: 41%

 

[TheRed]

14 minutes ago, stbugs said:

WTF does this mean? Long gone? Man, you guys can’t let go of Cam.

I've made multiple posts detailing possibilities of us maneuvering to draft the QB of the future this year, but I can't let go of Cam?

As much ire as you litter here about others being emotional it's clear you're one of the ones leading with emotion the most. Me? I want a winning team. We need a quarterback to accomplish that. You do not however need the highest paid running back in the league to be successful. No matter how many angry posts you make about it nothing will change the fact that trends across the league back definitively back that up.

[Cpt slay a ho]

4 hours ago, WarHeel said:

Completely leave out Kelce. You think he balls out like that without him?

 

Not trying to take anything away from the season as he’s obviously top tier. I just feel like we throw around “elite” like we do “GOAT.” Needs to be used more conservatively.

Gotta have someone to throw too, sometimes a football player just has IT, you can tell he does you don’t fluke into 50 tds, a mvp, and Super Bowl mvp that fast if you’re not elite 

[kungfoodude]

Since I went through the effort to do the top 10 paid RB's, here are the QB's for comparison:

1. Russell Wilson - Signed a contract extension in April 2019. In 2019, 6th in passing yardage and 3rd in passing TD's. Seahawks finished 11-5 and lost in the Divisional Round.

2. Ben Roethlisberger - Signed a contract extension in April 2019. In 2019 missed most of the season due to elbow injury.

3. Aaron Rogers - Signed a contract extension in Aug. 2018. In 2018, 6th in passing yardage and 13th in passing TD's. Packers finished 6-9-1 and missed the playoffs. In 2019, 11th in passing yardage and 10th in passing TD's. Packers finished 13-3 and lost in the NFC Championship game.

4. Jared Goff - Signed a contract extension in Sept. 2019. In 2019, 3rd in passing yardage and 16th in passing TD's. Rams finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs. 

5. Carson Wentz - Signed a contract extension in June 2019. In 2019, 9th in passing yardage and 5th in passing TD's. Eagles finished 9-7 and lost in the Wild Card. 

6. Matt Ryan - Signed a contract extension in May 2018. In 2018, finished 3rd in passing yardage and 3rd in passing TD's. Falcons finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs. In 2019, finished 5th in passing yardage and 8th in passing TD's. Falcons finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs.

7. Kirk Cousins - Signed a contract on March 2018. In 2018, finished 10th in passing yardage and 9th in passing TD's. Vikings finished 8-7-1 and missed the playoffs. In 2019, finished 16th in passing yardage and 12th in passing TD's. Vikings finished 10-6 and lost in the Divisional Round. 

8. Jacoby Brissett - Signed an extension in Sept. 2019. In 2019, finished 27th in passing yardage and 26th in passing TD's. Colts finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs. 

9. Jimmy Garappolo - Signed a contract in Feb. 2019. In 2019, finished 12th in passing yardage and 6th in passing TD's. 49ers finished 13-3 and lost in the Super Bowl. 

10. Matt Stafford - Signed an extension in Aug. 2017. In 2017, finished 3rd in passing yardage and 4th in passing TD's. Lions finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs. In 2018, finished 16th in passing yardage and 18th in passing TD's. Lions finished 6-10 and missed the playoffs. In 2019 missed most of the season with injury.

Top 10 Passing Total Performances: 62%

Top 10 Passing TD Performances: 69%

Playoff Berths: 38%

Winning Records: 54%

 

As expected, the top 10 performances are much, much, much higher and the winning records percentages are significantly higher, as well. 

[davos]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

As expected, the top 10 performances are much, much, much higher and the winning records percentages are significantly higher, as well. 

Damn, didn't realize Brissett was making that much money. 

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, davos said:

Damn, didn't realize Brissett was making that much money. 

That is a little skewed just because he signed a one year deal.