Rappaport on the pending trade market for Cam

[stbugs]

53 minutes ago, GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER said:

he is absolutely going to hold out in the 5th year. the last "good value" year (meaning productivity vs pay) we have with him is next season. going to be wasting a ton of value throwing him out there as we blow everything up. to say that it "makes no sense" goes to show how little you've thought about it. you, like many others, are emotionally attached to a player. i get it, you're a fan, w/e. but if we're actually rebuilding then it's very dumb not to shop one of your most valuable assets who also happens to play a position with a relatively short lifespan. 

quarterbacks play longer than running backs. mccaffrey is in all likelihood in the midst of his prime right now. think about how much better he would have to be for his upcoming contract to be worth it to a rebuilding team. you trade him now, you let him walk, or you end up the team that handed out a record breaking contract to a running back in the middle of a rebuild. this isn't hard.

what do you have when you have the highest paid running back in the league? an anchor on your cap. there simply isn't enough value there. his most valuable seasons will be the seasons he plays on his rookie deal. he's going to take up a ton of cap playing a position where there is very little positional value. stupid way to "rebuild" a team, sorry.

the most important difference between the two is that cam plays a premium position while mccaffrey does not. cam moves the needle while mccaffrey does not. mccaffrey makes a lot of sense for a team ready to compete. keeping him makes no sense for a team talking about a 5 year rebuild lol

not sure what race has to do with this 

Who cares if QBs have longer careers? CMC is 23 and Cam is 30. As a running QB with 4 years of should surgeries and recoveries, Cam is not likely to last longer and there’s a risk that he’ll never be fully healthy again.

The whole RB thing is silly. CMC is more of an offensive weapon than DJ is, that’s why I’d extend him and Moore. CMC isn’t Elliott or Freeman. That said, it’s easy to afford both with the @$160M in cap savings over the rebuild plan with a rookie QB. I can have CMC and Moore and a rookie QB (hopefully one of the top 2/3 in this or next year’s draft) or I can pay $35M per year for Cam.

You know exactly what race has to do with it. As soon as people mention being OK with rebuilding without Cam, people come back with why don’t you want to trade CMC? Some just say you want a white QB. Sort of annoying when most of us have backed Cam all the way. I just see the rebuild with guys in the 5 year plan and a stud rookie QB as the best rebuild option. I’m the opposite of emotional and anyone saying it’s  stupid to have CMC there for a rookie QB is stupid.

[Malt Liquor]

I say get a QB this upcoming season. Through free agency. Or through the draft with Tua, or Herbert. Joe Burrow is going to cost too many draft picks. But it is the bengals we are talking about so who knows.

[GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER]

6 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Who cares if QBs have longer careers? CMC is 23 and Cam is 30. As a running QB with 4 years of should surgeries and recoveries, Cam is not likely to last longer and there’s a risk that he’ll never be fully healthy again

how long do high volume running backs last? or are we going to just keep pretending mccaffrey is different for reasons no one can ever really provide?

6 minutes ago, stbugs said:

The whole RB thing is silly. CMC is more of an offensive weapon than DJ is, that’s why I’d extend him and Moore. CMC isn’t Elliott or Freeman. That said, it’s easy to afford both with the @$160M in cap savings over the rebuild plan with a rookie QB. I can have CMC and Moore and a rookie QB (hopefully one of the top 2/3 in this or next year’s draft) or I can pay $35M per year for Cam.

and if you’re not really worried about winning then yeah it makes sense to devalue the most important position in the sport in the name of cap space lol. and if you’re not really worried about winning then why, again, are you keeping what will certainly become the highest paid running back in the league? a rebuilding team signing mccaffrey to the contract he’s going to get is breathtakingly stupid.

6 minutes ago, stbugs said:

You know exactly what race has to do with it. As soon as people mention being OK with rebuilding without Cam, people come back with why don’t you want to trade CMC?

nope still not seeing it. take it to the tinderbox maybe? or maybe just remove your emotion from the equation.

[kungfoodude]

Trading a healthy Cam Newton would be pretty insane. Not even Dan Snyder would be that dumb.

[TheRed]

Remember all the whining we used to see on this site about "cap hell"? What about all the talk of how we were FINALLY about to shed those pesky RB contracts certain fans whined about for years?

Interesting some of the same posters now want to torpedo our cap space on the running back position. Oh how quickly opinions change.

[Jon Snow]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

Trading a healthy Cam Newton would be pretty insane. Not even Dan Snyder would be that dumb.

Not if you believe he will not stay that way and you are the one paying the salary.   

[stbugs]

8 minutes ago, GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER said:

how long do high volume running backs last? or are we going to just keep pretending mccaffrey is different for reasons no one can ever really provide?

and if you’re not really worried about winning then yeah it makes sense to devalue the most important position in the sport in the name of cap space lol. and if you’re not really worried about winning then why, again, are you keeping what will certainly become the highest paid running back in the league? a rebuilding team signing mccaffrey to the contract he’s going to get is breathtakingly stupid.

nope still not seeing it. take it to the tinderbox maybe? or maybe just remove your emotion from the equation.

High volume guys usually last to 27-29. He’s got more receptions than carries so I’d say lasting to 28/29 is pretty easy and at that point the guarantees are done.

Devalue now? Cam’s been devalued the past two years. I think it’s funny that all you guys who support him want him to play out his final contract year with no guarantees past this year. We can’t possibly pay him the franchise rate based on his injuries so you think he’s really playing this year without a new deal? I’d see him holding out as much as I’d see CMC.

Almost every post about if you want to get rid of Cam, how about CMC? No more detail on why CMC. There absolutely have been outright “you want a white QB” multiple times and other slightly more subtle comments. I won’t assume it was you, so I’ll stop that because you have at least said why you want to trade CMC. I disagree 100%, but we don’t have to agree.

[kungfoodude]

6 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Not if you believe he will not stay that way and you are the one paying the salary.   

I mean, I would understand that to some degree but the risk is astronomical versus the potential reward of letting him play out his final year. And I assume money is not an object considering Tepper just broke the bank on a college coaching staff.

I will say that I was nervous headed into the offseason, even more nervous after we filled out the coaching staff and if we jettison Cam, I think I am just going to assume we are going to be a bottom 10 team for a long time. It's just hard to see a light at the end of the tunnel when your owner decides to trade away the franchise QB and keep Marty Hurney.

[(ATL'ien)CamNewton]

11 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Not if you believe he will not stay that way and you are the one paying the salary.   

No team will trade for him, they think the same as you.

[kungfoodude]

27 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Because (my opinion,  based on that word Tepper and RR discussed) the enemy is not losing--it is mediocrity.  Cam prolongs the inevitable.  When he is on the field, our future franchise QB is not getting reps.  A losing season is a blip. Mediocrity plagues teams for years.

I am not sure how often in the NFL that you get out of mediocrity by being terrible. I don't really think that bears out over time in the NFL. It can work well in the NBA/NHL/MLB some time but usually you are eating poo for a looooooooooooooooong time to make that back up. 

[TheRed]

3 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Devalue now? Cam’s been devalued the past two years. I think it’s funny that all you guys who support him want him to play out his final contract year with no guarantees past this year. We can’t possibly pay him the franchise rate based on his injuries so you think he’s really playing this year without a new deal? I’d see him holding out as much as I’d see CMC.

Honestly, you are all over the place with this.

In one breath Cam Newton is unequivocally done and will never be the same quarterback, in another breath apparently CMC is the bionic man and will never start deteriorating despite an insane workload and it being common knowledge that the 27-29 range has largely been unkind to most running backs over the years. Jonathan Stewart split carries most of his career and still only made it to 28/29 with the Panthers. Even then it was clear he wasn't the same.

[GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER]

4 minutes ago, stbugs said:

High volume guys usually last to 27-29. He’s got more receptions than carries so I’d say lasting to 28/29 is pretty easy and at that point the guarantees are done.

hits are hits and whereas other running backs get to rest mccaffrey stays on in pass protection. you're fooling yourself if you think that doesn't take a toll. injuries aren't going to be a matter of "if" but "when" (unless he's unusually lucky)

that's a lot of risk to take on for the privilege of making him the highest paid running back in the league on a bad team

6 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Devalue now? Cam’s been devalued the past two years. I think it’s funny that all you guys who support him want him to play out his final contract year with no guarantees past this year. We can’t possibly pay him the franchise rate based on his injuries so you think he’s really playing this year without a new deal? I’d see him holding out as much as I’d see CMC.

this is how the conversation surrounding cam shifts. he's simultaneously so much of a risk that the team should move on from him and yet somehow he has the leverage to hold out? that doesn't make any sense. but should he refuse to play, i wouldn't blame him. i would support that decision. but if the franchise has an opportunity to see what he has left, if he's willing to play, it would be extremely dumb to cut him or trade him for what will surely be very little.

8 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Almost every post about if you want to get rid of Cam, how about CMC? No more detail on why CMC.

this isn't true

9 minutes ago, stbugs said:

you have at least said why you want to trade CMC.

yeah and i'm not the only one. the people suggesting we trade mccaffrey would happily keep him if it meant we were planning to compete. but for months now we've been told the team sucks and the greatest player in the history of the franchise needs to go. it's not worth it to see if he recovered. push him out the door. so alright, fine. now we're talking rebuild. and if mccaffrey's name isn't coming up when it comes time to talk rebuild, you're doing something wrong. 

[Basbear]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

2 reasons.

1. I don't believe we will suck, we may not win but we won't suck.

2. Marty Hurney.

My biggest issue with knowing the most likely sucking coming in 2020, is it is a built in excuse for Herniay.  He will get another fing year..... 

[falconidae]

3 hours ago, Cpt slay a ho said:

....

Better to play cam this year, increase his value, than have the option of retaining or trading him next year if you can secure a top pick instead of banking on the unknown, if cam flops trade him at the deadline for whatever you can get, simple as that  


 

Cam's value doesn't increase next year, If he proves he's healthy,that's negated by  his cost going up considerably. If he's not healthy, he won't improve his value.

There's also the idea that Cam IS an unknown, particularly  to Tepper. Tepper hasn't seen anything in his tenure to suggest Cam can sustain quality play over any length of time. Some QB hungry team will give the most value for Cam now.

No one here on the board has Cam's medical records, or records of the conversations between Cam and the team. It may be that Cam's shoulder is fubared, or Cam may have quietly demanded  a trade because he sees the lack of talent on the roster and is not interested in being in a rebuilding situation. 

1 hour ago, GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER said:

... if we're rebuilding, as so many have said, then what do you do? say it with me: maximize value. the value he provides on the field is completely wasted on a rebuilding team. and what you definitely dont do as a rebuilding team is hand out the largest contract ever for a running back lol....

Keeping CMC  for this year makes sense from a marketing standpoint, gives fans someone to go see. Also allows them to pretend they aren't rebuilding this year. Those things have more value than you want to give them. Yeah, don't give him a huge contract, but having him on the team this year makes sense.