Why the Panthers might Draft Herbert

[raz]

3 minutes ago, Madwolf said:

We definitely have to trust him at this point.

QB is certainly an area of need unless Cam can prove he can stay healthy this upcoming season.

The Panthers have so many needs right now, and I believe the danger the Panthers face right now is bringing in a QB at a time when they're forced to "play now" without much of a supporting cast on the offensive line, or the defensive side of the ball period. I think it's a recipe for turning your QB into a shell shocked failure real quick.

its a weird place to be for sure.  the insecurities around cam's shoulder, the #7 pick, the o-line need.   i don't see the scenarios that we're picking this high again next year as others do.   that would take effort, but we may go for it.  maybe rhule and brady find a kid in the 3rd this year of next that fits what they want to do, that everyone else just didn't see.  maybe cam is ok and can learn the new O and get the plays called on time.    you know cam has just as good a chance of getting killed behind this line as any other qb

[kungfoodude]

52 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

No--you are right.  I guessed. With his production and a $10m cap savings, I figured he would be cut.  Still do--Poe is the third highest paid player on this team--behind Cam and KK.  I just do not see how we keep him--but I could be wrong.

He may end up staying if we just simply do not have a viable option to replace him with that $10 mil in cap. TBD. I'd like to think we could do better but the market may not dictate that. 

Also, another big monkey wrench in this offseason is the status of the CBA. We all need to consider what the impact of all that uncertainty will have on free agency.

[Growl]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

You are missing the larger point in that top 10 QB picks are questionable bets, unlike some of the other positions that are drafted there. 

Let's take a look at recent draft history(top 10 picks and the best overall pick, I am going to use Pro Football References Career AV metric to take some of the differences of opinion out of the equation).

2019

#1 Kyler Murray - CarAV: 14, Avg. AV/season: 14

#6 Daniel Jones - CarAV: 9, Avg. AV/season: 9

Top Two QB's of 2019 Draft: 1. Kyler Murray(#1 overall), 2. Gardner Minshew(#178 overall)

 

2018

#1 Baker Mayfield - CarAV: 21, Avg. AV/season: 10.5

#3 Sam Darnold - CarAV: 13, Avg. AV/season: 6.5

#7 Josh Allen - CarAV: 17, Avg. AV/season: 8.5

#10 Josh Rosen - CarAV: 3, Avg. AV/season: 1.5

Top Two QB's of 2018 Draft: 1. Lamar Jackson(#32 overall), 2. Baker Mayfield(#1 overall)

 

 2017

#2 Mitchell Trubisky - CarAV: 22, Avg. AV/season: 7.3

#10 Patrick Mahomes - CarAV: 39, Avg. AV/season: 23.0

Top Two QB's of 2017 Draft: 1. Patrick Mahomes(#10 overall), 2. Deshaun Watson(#12 overall)

 

 2016

#1 Jared Goff - CarAV: 41, Avg. AV/season: 10.3

#2 Carson Wentz - CarAV: 42, Avg. AV/season: 10.5

Top Two QB's of 2016 Draft: 1. Dak Prescott(#135 overall), 2. Carson Wentz(#2 overall)

 

2015

#1 Jameis Winston - CarAV: 54, Avg. AV/season: 10.8

#2 Marcus Mariota - CarAV: 44, Avg. AV/season: 8.8

Top Two QB's of 2015 Draft: 1. Jameis Winston(#1 overall), 2. Marcus Mariota(#2 overall)

 

2014

#3 Blake Bortles - CarAV: 44, Avg. AV/season: 7.3

Top Two QB's of 2014 Draft: 1. Derek Carr(#36 overall), 2. Blake Bortles(#3 overall)

 

2013

No QB's in the top ten.

Top Two QB's of 2013 Draft: 1. Geno Smith(#39 overall), 2. Mike Glennon(#73 overall)

 

2012

#1 Andrew Luck - CarAV: 71, Avg. AV/season: 11.8

#2 Robert Griffin - CarAV: 36, Avg. AV/season: 5.1

#8 Ryan Tannehill - CarAV: 63, Avg. AV/season: 9.0

Top Two QB's of 2012 Draft: 1. Russell Wilson(#73 overall), 2. Andrew Luck(#1 overall)

 

2011

#1 Cam Newton - CarAV: 104, Avg. AV/season: 13.0

#8 Jake Locker - CarAV: 15, Avg. AV/season: 3.8

#10 Blaine Gabbert - CarAV: 16, Avg. AV/season: 2.0

Top Two QB's of 2011 Draft: 1. Cam Newton(#1 overall), 2. Andy Dalton(#35 overall)

 

2010

#1 Sam Bradford - CarAV: 44, Avg. AV/Season: 4.9

Top Two QB's of 2010 Draft: 1. Sam Bradford(#1 overall), 2. Colt McCoy(#82 overall)

 

2009

#1 Matthew Stafford - CarAV: 95, Avg. AV/Season: 9.5

#5 Mark Sanchez - CarAV: 34, Avg. AV/Season: 4.3

Top Two QB's of 2009 Draft: 1. Matthew Stafford(#1 overall), 2. Josh Freeman(#17 overall)

 

2008

#3 Matt Ryan - CarAV: 135, Avg. AV/Season: 12.3

Top Two QB's of 2008 Draft: 1. Matt Ryan(#3 overall), 2. Joe Flacco(#18 overall)

 

2007

#1 Jamarcus Russell - CarAV: 6, Avg. AV/Season: 2.0

Top Two QB's of 2007 Draft: 1. Trent Edwards(#92 overall), 2. Kevin Kolb(#32 overall)

 

2006

#3 Vince Young - CarAV: 33, Avg. AV/Season: 5.5

#10 Matt Leinart - CarAV: 12, Avg. AV/Season: 2.0

Top Two QB's of 2006 Draft: 1. Jay Cutler(#11 overall), 2. Vince Young(#3 overall)

 

2005

#1 Alex Smith - CarAV: 96, Avg. AV/Season: 7.4

Top Two QB's of 2005 Draft: 1. Aaron Rodgers(#24 overall), 2. Alex Smith(#1 overall)

 

2004

#1 Eli Manning - CarAV: 118, Avg. AV/Season: 7.4

#4 Philip Rivers - CarAV: 145, Avg. AV/Season: 9.1

Top Two QB's of 2016 Draft: 1. Philip Rivers(#4 overall), 2. Ben Roethlisberger(#11 overall)

 

2003

#1 Carson Palmer - CarAV: 108, Avg. AV/Season: 7.7

#7 Byron Leftwich - CarAV: 33, Avg. AV/Season: 3.7

Top Two QB's of 2003 Draft: 1. Carson Palmer(#1 overall), 2. Byron Leftwich(#7 overall)

 

2002

#1 David Carr - CarAV: 44, Avg. AV/Season: 4.4

#3 Joey Harrington - CarAV: 30, Avg. AV/Season: 5.0

Top Two QB's of 2002 Draft: 1. David Garrad(#61 overall), 2. David Carr(#1 overall)

 

2001

#1 Michael Vick - CarAV: 93, Avg. AV/Season: 7.2

Top Two QB's of 2001 Draft: 1. Drew Brees(#32 overall), 2. Michael Vick(#1 overall)

 

2000

No QB's in the top ten.

Top Two QB's of 2000 Draft: 1. Tom Brady(#199 overall), 2. Marc Bulger(#168 overall)

 

1999

#1 Tim Couch - CarAV: 30, Avg. AV/Season: 6.0

#2 Donovan McNabb - CarAV: 107, Avg. AV/Season: 8.9

#3 Akili Smith - CarAV: 1, Avg. AV/Season: 0.3

Top Two QB's of 1999 Draft: 1. Donovan McNabb(#2 overall), 2. Daunte Culpepper(#11 overall)

 

So, basically you have a 48% chance of landing one of the top two QB's of each draft in that top ten group and an even lower probability of getting a franchise QB(hard to say with the recent drafts, that is more of a long term assessment). The rarity for us? Well, we've been in the top 10 of the draft 8 out of 26 years of existence(~30.7%), so it isn't that exceedingly rare for us. If Cam leaves, we'll probably a regular there for a bit as we try and get our next franchise QB.

And if Cam returns(and stays) we can rejoice in the fact that we might be competitive for a long time and none of this will matter for a while. I don't have some Gettleman-like fixation, and for having that he did a pretty poor job of handling our OL. 

 

I'm just gonna cut you off right there

Which positions are "safest" has absolutely no bearing on what a team chasing a Lombardi has in mind when they step up to bat to draft

quite amusingly, if I recall correctly, the safest positions to draft are a veritable whose who of positions that have no significant impact on an organization's success. OG, S, LB, RB 

The 1st round and especially the top 10 isn't about making sure you avoid criticism because the player you took didn't pan out.

It's about getting the elite talents at crucial positions that you aren't going to find elsewhere, period. 

[kungfoodude]

7 minutes ago, raz said:

its a weird place to be for sure.  the insecurities around cam's shoulder, the #7 pick, the o-line need.   i don't see the scenarios that we're picking this high again next year as others do.   that would take effort, but we may go for it.  maybe rhule and brady find a kid in the 3rd this year of next that fits what they want to do, that everyone else just didn't see.  maybe cam is ok and can learn the new O and get the plays called on time.    you know cam has just as good a chance of getting killed behind this line as any other qb

I'm not as optimistic about the overall uncertainty but I know that if #1 is able to suit up next year, we have the potential to be very good, all other factors aside. Still, this is the most unsure I have been about an offseason in a long, long time. 

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, Growl said:

I'm just gonna cut you off right there

Which positions are "safest" has absolutely no bearing on what a team chasing a Lombardi has in mind when they step up to bat to draft

quite amusingly, if I recall correctly, the safest positions to draft are a veritable whose who of positions that have no significant impact on an organization's success. OG, S, LB, RB 

The 1st round and especially the top 10 isn't about making sure you avoid criticism because the player you took didn't pan out.

It's about getting the elite talents at crucial positions that you aren't going to find elsewhere, period. 

Ah, I get it now. You are just illogical. I won't bother trying to make reasonable arguments to an unreasonable person. 

[Growl]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

Ah, I get it now. You are just illogical. I won't bother trying to make reasonable arguments to an unreasonable person. 

So does that mean we can out it on record that you think the draft has something to do with acquiring the "safest" position groups available? Because that's exactly how this comment reads.

 

Good teams don't draft because they're scared of drafting *gasp* a bust! I'm sorry you don't like it. Maybe you can go pull for Dallas as they take high floor, useless positions in the 1st every season and then limp to 8-8. Must be comforting, knowing you never missed out on a draft pick. 

[kungfoodude]

6 minutes ago, Growl said:

So does that mean we can out it on record that you think the draft has something to do with acquiring the "safest" position groups available? Because that's exactly how this comment reads.

 

Good teams don't draft because they're scared of drafting *gasp* a bust! I'm sorry you don't like it. Maybe you can go pull for Dallas as they take high floor, useless positions in the 1st every season and then limp to 8-8. Must be comforting, knowing you never missed out on a draft pick. 

Yeah and I guess you can hitch your bandwagon to the Browns, Bengals, or Dolphins and all their home run QB picks over the past 20 years. Boy those worked out well!

[TheRed]

23 minutes ago, Growl said:

The only teams publicly fretting over Tagovalioa's "injury history" are the ones who stand to benefit if his "injury history" drops him down the draft board to them.

As for Herbert, well that's just a quintessential case of this boards hilariously unrealistic expectations of what top QB propects look like

I'm sure you remember suck for Luck, actually the similarities between then and now are quite astounding, right down to the demand to take "safer" players in "the trenches" (like all of which quickly flamed out, so weird) and just out off drafting a franchise QB until we could "stabilize" or whatever other argument looked silly the exact moment Cam hit 89 down the left sideline.

Cam and Luck went first overall. If we had the top overall pick it wouldn't even be a question in the minds of most. We would be taking Burrow. The divide begins outside the top 5. So at 7th overall of course people are going to tend to look for lower risk options in that scenario.

[Growl]

15 minutes ago, TheRed said:

Cam and Luck went first overall. If we had the top overall pick it wouldn't even be a question in the minds of most. We would be taking Burrow. The divide begins outside the top 5. So at 7th overall of course people are going to tend to look for lower risk options in that scenario.

Cam Newton wasn't comparable as a prospect to Luck in the eyes of most and you know that.

The general consensus on this very board was accompanied by the very same criticisms you see levied at Herbert. Scheme, personality, whatever, and to that end, if there weren't two abnormal prospects sitting at the top of this class, the Bengals would be talking about taking Herbert at #1.

This board believes that if a QB prospect isn't a Luck or a Lawrence then they aren't worth talking and it's always accompanied by the delusion that we are guaranteed to get said guy if we just build an elite roster around the QB position, then said player will be handed to us inexplicably.

[Growl]

16 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah and I guess you can hitch your bandwagon to the Browns, Bengals, or Dolphins and all their home run QB picks over the past 20 years. Boy those worked out well!

Weird, I don't see many home run QB picks, I do see lots of ELITE BLUE CHIP CANT MISS PROSPECTS having a quick sip of tea in their respective towns before being shipped out or fleeing because they were locked in perpetual mediocrity

also please try to equate the current QB prospects to Johnny manziel next

[mrcompletely11]

16 hours ago, DamnItJake! said:

Not a big Fromm fan but prove me wrong 

He is an incredible leader, very intelligent,  good fundamentals, and goes through his progressions.

 

I totally get his lack of arm strength and athleticism and he probably isnt a good fit if Rhule wants to run a spread.

 

I have said all along he just feels like a belicheck type player.  Really really smart.

 

 

[mrcompletely11]

10 minutes ago, Growl said:

Cam Newton wasn't comparable as a prospect to Luck in the eyes of most and you know that.

The general consensus on this very board was accompanied by the very same criticisms you see levied at Herbert. Scheme, personality, whatever, and to that end, if there weren't two abnormal prospects sitting at the top of this class, the Bengals would be talking about taking Herbert at #1.

This board believes that if a QB prospect isn't a Luck or a Lawrence then they aren't worth talking and it's always accompanied by the delusion that we are guaranteed to get said guy if we just build an elite roster around the QB position, then said player will be handed to us inexplicably.

I honest to God do not even know what you are arguing at this point

[Madwolf]

He's just writing to hear his own voice in his head.

[Growl]

4 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I honest to God do not even know what you are arguing at this point

and you don't understand how the quote system works here either

must be tough, man