Why the Panthers might Draft Herbert

[Growl]

7 minutes ago, Madwolf said:

And how many of the QBs taken in the 1st  NEVER won a Super Bowl since Brady?

1st Round QBs since 2000:

Chad Pennington

Mike Vick

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Patrick Ramsey

Caron Palmer

Byron Lefwich

Kyle Boller

Rex Grossman

Eli Manning - Super Bowl

Philip Rivers

Ben Rothersburger - Super Bowl

JP Lossman

Alex Smith

Aaron Rodgers - Super Bowl

Jason Campbell

Vince Young

Matt Lienhart

Jay Cutler

Jamarcus Russel

Brady Quinn

Matt Ryan

Joe Flacco - Super Bowl

Matthew Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Josh Freeman

Sam Bradford

The Golden Calf of Bristol

Cam Newton

Jake Locker

Blaine Gabbert

Christian Ponder

Andrew Luck

Robert Griffin

Ryan Tannehill

Brandon Weedon

EJ Emanuel

Blake Bortles

Johnny Manziel

Teddy Bridgewater

Jamis Winston

Marcus Marriota

Jared Goff

Paxton Lynch

Carson Wentz

Mitch Tribusky

Patrick Mahomes - Super Bowl

Desuan Watson

Baker Mayfield

Sam Darnold

Josh Allen

Josh Rosen

Lamar Jackson

Kyler Murray

Daniel Jones

Dwayne Haskins

5 out of 57 have won a Super Bowl since Tom Brady entered the league.

And that's not an argument AGAINST drafting a QB in the 1st round. That's an argument against being suckered into drafting a QB too high at the cost of other positions with players who are more likely to work out.

 

 

I almost can't believe I'm witnessing somebody argue that QBs can/should be find more or less anywhere lol 

Why don't you contrast QB successes inside the top 12 with those outside of it? 

Indeed, prospects can bust, thanks for explaining the draft to everyone here, but there is a clear mathematical discrepancy in success rater that is undeniable, and watching you try to isolate prospects for criticism that you haven't seen/don't want to like because you have some dates view of roster construction/horrendous resistance to change is a laugher.

 

[raz]

16 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

But you do honestly think the most likely guy available(and that is a big IF, as well), Herbert, is THE guy?

And I ask that question probably not being overly upset if we did take him there.

if he's there i'm warming up to taking him.   we can't know by draft day how cam's shoulder will hold up.  i think this is our shot but i'm down with however rhule decides to build the team. i'm expecting to be picking 10-20 next year. i'm excited.  if its a marty draft i'm gonna be mature about it, after i have a hissy fit or 500

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, Madwolf said:

 

I think we should spend money on one of the younger NTs in FA this year. We should be able to get a stable presence there without too many years on them. That being said I really like Brown.

Poe is slated to make like $13m--almost $10m saved to cut him.  I would rather cut him, eat the $3m dead money, and sign 2 free agents who want to play some ball.  Some like Poe--not me--Nevermore. 
(I hope people saw what I did there--degree of difficulty: 4---it was a Poe/The Raven reference.  Literary stuff).

[mrcompletely11]

48 minutes ago, Growl said:

Lol half of these players are mid round picks (or later) and the other half were terrible players who didn't go with the team who blew a draft pick on them

Now I want one even less. Aside from Brady exceptionalism you definitely can't do the same thing with the QB spot.

FYI - You are not very good at this

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Poe is slated to make like $13m--almost $10m saved to cut him.  I would rather cut him, eat the $3m dead money, and sign 2 free agents who want to play some ball.  Some like Poe--not me--Nevermore. 
(I hope people saw what I did there--degree of difficulty: 4---it was a Poe/The Raven reference.  Literary stuff).

Poe is getting cut.  Why in the hell would they keep him at that number coming off a major injury? 

[MHS831]

8 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Poe is getting cut.  Why in the hell would they keep him at that number coming off a major injury? 

Hope so.

[Madwolf]

19 minutes ago, Growl said:

I almost can't believe I'm witnessing somebody argue that QBs can/should be find more or less anywhere lol 

Why don't you contrast QB successes inside the top 12 with those outside of it? 

Indeed, prospects can bust, thanks for explaining the draft to everyone here, but there is a clear mathematical discrepancy in success rater that is undeniable, and watching you try to isolate prospects for criticism that you haven't seen/don't want to like because you have some dates view of roster construction/horrendous resistance to change is a laugher.

 

Same list:

Chad Pennington

Mike Vick

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Carson Palmer

Byron Leftwhich

Eli Manning - Super Bowl

Philip Rivers

Ben Rothisburger - Super Bowl

Alex Smith

Vince Young

Matt Leinhart

Jay Cutler

Jamarcus Russel

Matt Ryan

Matthew Stafford

Matt Sanchez

Sam Bradford

Cam Newton

Blaine Gabbert

Jake Locker

Christian Ponder

Andrew Luck

Robert Griffin III

Ryan Tannehill

Blake Bortles

Jared Goff

Carson Wentz

Mitch Tribisky

Patrick Mahomes - Super Bowl

Desuan Watson

Baker Mayfield

Josh Allen

Sam Darnold

Josh Rosen

Kyler Murray

Daniel JOnes

Dwayne Haskins

 

3 of 39

Almost identical. 

Congrats on being wrong again.

On the bright side, at least your consistent.

[raz]

funny thing is i'm not sure we can look at this draft like we've looked at previous drafts.  rhule def has an eye for talent, and the type of player he wants.     we may not be drafting willy nilly for the first time ever.  he achieved 1 loss seasons with a game manager qb.   i'm not sure how he wants to build the team.   he may think love or eason is exactly what he's looking for.  i'm pretty stoked to see.  i feel better about getting players that 'fit' and can serve a purpose on the team than i ever have.  

[stirs]

2 minutes ago, raz said:

funny thing is i'm not sure we can look at this draft like we've looked at previous drafts.  rhule def has an eye for talent, and the type of player he wants.     we may not be drafting willy nilly for the first time ever.  he achieved 1 loss seasons with a game manager qb.   i'm not sure how he wants to build the team.   he may think love or eason is exactly what he's looking for.  i'm pretty stoked to see.  i feel better about getting players that 'fit' and can serve a purpose on the team than i ever have.  

I also hear that Mr Nilly will run a 5+ second 40 and is an introvert.  Do not want anyway

[Madwolf]

2 minutes ago, raz said:

funny thing is i'm not sure we can look at this draft like we've looked at previous drafts.  rhule def has an eye for talent, and the type of player he wants.     we may not be drafting willy nilly for the first time ever.  he achieved 1 loss seasons with a game manager qb.   i'm not sure how he wants to build the team.   he may think love or eason is exactly what he's looking for.  i'm pretty stoked to see.  i feel better about getting players that 'fit' and can serve a purpose on the team than i ever have.  

We definitely have to trust him at this point.

QB is certainly an area of need unless Cam can prove he can stay healthy this upcoming season.

The Panthers have so many needs right now, and I believe the danger the Panthers face right now is bringing in a QB at a time when they're forced to "play now" without much of a supporting cast on the offensive line, or the defensive side of the ball period. I think it's a recipe for turning your QB into a shell shocked failure real quick.

[raz]

5 minutes ago, stirs said:

I also hear that Mr Nilly will run a 5+ second 40 and is an introvert.  Do not want anyway

plus he just throws the ball wherever

[Growl]

47 minutes ago, TheRed said:

Considering we would likely to have to trade up to be in position for Burrow or Tua, I don't see the justification in a move for Tua when he has serious injury concerns the same as a 30 year old Cam Newton. This is supposed to be a move for the future. If that move carries the same injury risk and costs a top 10 pick it isn't worth it.  If we can't get Burrow, hitching ourselves to either of the other two options in Tua or Herbert just seems like a waste and a way to say at least we tried. That's not how you use top 10 picks and build winning teams.

The only teams publicly fretting over Tagovalioa's "injury history" are the ones who stand to benefit if his "injury history" drops him down the draft board to them.

As for Herbert, well that's just a quintessential case of this boards hilariously unrealistic expectations of what top QB propects look like

I'm sure you remember suck for Luck, actually the similarities between then and now are quite astounding, right down to the demand to take "safer" players in "the trenches" (like all of which quickly flamed out, so weird) and just out off drafting a franchise QB until we could "stabilize" or whatever other argument looked silly the exact moment Cam hit 89 down the left sideline.

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Growl said:

This line of thinking is too small. The draft isn't just about whether or not cam can come back for one or two more seasons. It's about the next era of NFCS football.

*Analytically* speaking, the odds of the Panthers being in this kind of position to get a franchise QB is a rare, rare opportunity. Not one you can Bank on happening again soon. Especially it Cam indeed does return and is "solid" at worst. The Panthers cannot be scared of the opportunity staring them in the face.

The rest of your post just oozes gettlemanesque farcical view on team building. " I don't care if I can get a great prospect at a position of need, the cliches say take inconsequential player at inconsequential position because he has a hilariously arbitrary higher number on my highly mutable draft board!"

You are missing the larger point in that top 10 QB picks are questionable bets, unlike some of the other positions that are drafted there. 

Let's take a look at recent draft history(top 10 picks and the best overall pick, I am going to use Pro Football References Career AV metric to take some of the differences of opinion out of the equation).

2019

#1 Kyler Murray - CarAV: 14, Avg. AV/season: 14

#6 Daniel Jones - CarAV: 9, Avg. AV/season: 9

Top Two QB's of 2019 Draft: 1. Kyler Murray(#1 overall), 2. Gardner Minshew(#178 overall)

 

2018

#1 Baker Mayfield - CarAV: 21, Avg. AV/season: 10.5

#3 Sam Darnold - CarAV: 13, Avg. AV/season: 6.5

#7 Josh Allen - CarAV: 17, Avg. AV/season: 8.5

#10 Josh Rosen - CarAV: 3, Avg. AV/season: 1.5

Top Two QB's of 2018 Draft: 1. Lamar Jackson(#32 overall), 2. Baker Mayfield(#1 overall)

 

 2017

#2 Mitchell Trubisky - CarAV: 22, Avg. AV/season: 7.3

#10 Patrick Mahomes - CarAV: 39, Avg. AV/season: 23.0

Top Two QB's of 2017 Draft: 1. Patrick Mahomes(#10 overall), 2. Deshaun Watson(#12 overall)

 

 2016

#1 Jared Goff - CarAV: 41, Avg. AV/season: 10.3

#2 Carson Wentz - CarAV: 42, Avg. AV/season: 10.5

Top Two QB's of 2016 Draft: 1. Dak Prescott(#135 overall), 2. Carson Wentz(#2 overall)

 

2015

#1 Jameis Winston - CarAV: 54, Avg. AV/season: 10.8

#2 Marcus Mariota - CarAV: 44, Avg. AV/season: 8.8

Top Two QB's of 2015 Draft: 1. Jameis Winston(#1 overall), 2. Marcus Mariota(#2 overall)

 

2014

#3 Blake Bortles - CarAV: 44, Avg. AV/season: 7.3

Top Two QB's of 2014 Draft: 1. Derek Carr(#36 overall), 2. Blake Bortles(#3 overall)

 

2013

No QB's in the top ten.

Top Two QB's of 2013 Draft: 1. Geno Smith(#39 overall), 2. Mike Glennon(#73 overall)

 

2012

#1 Andrew Luck - CarAV: 71, Avg. AV/season: 11.8

#2 Robert Griffin - CarAV: 36, Avg. AV/season: 5.1

#8 Ryan Tannehill - CarAV: 63, Avg. AV/season: 9.0

Top Two QB's of 2012 Draft: 1. Russell Wilson(#73 overall), 2. Andrew Luck(#1 overall)

 

2011

#1 Cam Newton - CarAV: 104, Avg. AV/season: 13.0

#8 Jake Locker - CarAV: 15, Avg. AV/season: 3.8

#10 Blaine Gabbert - CarAV: 16, Avg. AV/season: 2.0

Top Two QB's of 2011 Draft: 1. Cam Newton(#1 overall), 2. Andy Dalton(#35 overall)

 

2010

#1 Sam Bradford - CarAV: 44, Avg. AV/Season: 4.9

Top Two QB's of 2010 Draft: 1. Sam Bradford(#1 overall), 2. Colt McCoy(#82 overall)

 

2009

#1 Matthew Stafford - CarAV: 95, Avg. AV/Season: 9.5

#5 Mark Sanchez - CarAV: 34, Avg. AV/Season: 4.3

Top Two QB's of 2009 Draft: 1. Matthew Stafford(#1 overall), 2. Josh Freeman(#17 overall)

 

2008

#3 Matt Ryan - CarAV: 135, Avg. AV/Season: 12.3

Top Two QB's of 2008 Draft: 1. Matt Ryan(#3 overall), 2. Joe Flacco(#18 overall)

 

2007

#1 Jamarcus Russell - CarAV: 6, Avg. AV/Season: 2.0

Top Two QB's of 2007 Draft: 1. Trent Edwards(#92 overall), 2. Kevin Kolb(#32 overall)

 

2006

#3 Vince Young - CarAV: 33, Avg. AV/Season: 5.5

#10 Matt Leinart - CarAV: 12, Avg. AV/Season: 2.0

Top Two QB's of 2006 Draft: 1. Jay Cutler(#11 overall), 2. Vince Young(#3 overall)

 

2005

#1 Alex Smith - CarAV: 96, Avg. AV/Season: 7.4

Top Two QB's of 2005 Draft: 1. Aaron Rodgers(#24 overall), 2. Alex Smith(#1 overall)

 

2004

#1 Eli Manning - CarAV: 118, Avg. AV/Season: 7.4

#4 Philip Rivers - CarAV: 145, Avg. AV/Season: 9.1

Top Two QB's of 2016 Draft: 1. Philip Rivers(#4 overall), 2. Ben Roethlisberger(#11 overall)

 

2003

#1 Carson Palmer - CarAV: 108, Avg. AV/Season: 7.7

#7 Byron Leftwich - CarAV: 33, Avg. AV/Season: 3.7

Top Two QB's of 2003 Draft: 1. Carson Palmer(#1 overall), 2. Byron Leftwich(#7 overall)

 

2002

#1 David Carr - CarAV: 44, Avg. AV/Season: 4.4

#3 Joey Harrington - CarAV: 30, Avg. AV/Season: 5.0

Top Two QB's of 2002 Draft: 1. David Garrad(#61 overall), 2. David Carr(#1 overall)

 

2001

#1 Michael Vick - CarAV: 93, Avg. AV/Season: 7.2

Top Two QB's of 2001 Draft: 1. Drew Brees(#32 overall), 2. Michael Vick(#1 overall)

 

2000

No QB's in the top ten.

Top Two QB's of 2000 Draft: 1. Tom Brady(#199 overall), 2. Marc Bulger(#168 overall)

 

1999

#1 Tim Couch - CarAV: 30, Avg. AV/Season: 6.0

#2 Donovan McNabb - CarAV: 107, Avg. AV/Season: 8.9

#3 Akili Smith - CarAV: 1, Avg. AV/Season: 0.3

Top Two QB's of 1999 Draft: 1. Donovan McNabb(#2 overall), 2. Daunte Culpepper(#11 overall)

 

So, basically you have a 48% chance of landing one of the top two QB's of each draft in that top ten group and an even lower probability of getting a franchise QB(hard to say with the recent drafts, that is more of a long term assessment). The rarity for us? Well, we've been in the top 10 of the draft 8 out of 26 years of existence(~30.7%), so it isn't that exceedingly rare for us. If Cam leaves, we'll probably a regular there for a bit as we try and get our next franchise QB.

And if Cam returns(and stays) we can rejoice in the fact that we might be competitive for a long time and none of this will matter for a while. I don't have some Gettleman-like fixation, and for having that he did a pretty poor job of handling our OL. 

 

[Growl]

45 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

FYI - You are not very good at this

oh no, not the final verdict from anon poster #37r-459b

Hey lemme guess pal, games are won in the trenches and defense wins championships and nobody did it like butkis am I right