Why the Panthers might Draft Herbert

[raz]

18 minutes ago, Growl said:

cam Newton getting hurt appears to be a reality of cam Newton at this point

One of? So you acknowledge there are other bigger problems?

Okay, great.

You're almost there. Now ask yourself, which of these "bigger problems" are far more essential to the long term success of the team. Ask yourself which "bigger problem" in a normal off-season usually can't just be fixed. Take a look at how long teams like the dolphins and browns have spent waiting to get lucky and find Perfect Quarterback Prospect right there for the taking. And its so weird, too, because they've drafted offensive lineman like Laremy tunsil and Joe LOL Thomas and yet we're never any good because they lacked a quality player at one position

See, the irony of it is that FORTIFYING THE TRENCHES is almost a curse, because it makes you good enough to never get a player you actually need but never good enough to actually be a good football team.

You don't build a team that way. It doesn't work, and right now, with the next era of NFC South football up for the taking, the Panthers have to aggressively making the Big, Correct moves, because mickey Loomis will, because if we don't, we will all gleefully sit here circle jerking each other over how we did it "THE RIGHT WAY" with our hog mollies as we coast to 7-9 and Sean Payton turns Jordan love or whatever into Patrick mahomes.

 

this makes your point better than your previous posts.    no one is saying a qb isn't the most important.  some people don't think we should draft a qb this year.   1 person here thinks cam is better than mahomes and will be over the next 5 years.  i know - its hilarious.   

we solidify the o-line and we won't get a shot at a top qb next year.  cam plays the whole year and we won't get a shot at a top qb next year.  either way we're at #7 right now and i think we need to take a qb first too, then solidify the line from the inside out and grab a dt

[Snake]

21 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Poe is getting cut

So we can have no NT? Do you know how dumb that sounds. 

[Madwolf]

4 minutes ago, Growl said:

cam Newton getting hurt appears to be a reality of cam Newton at this point

One of? So you acknowledge there are other bigger problems?

Okay, great.

You're almost there. Now ask yourself, which of these "bigger problems" are far more essential to the long term success of the team. Ask yourself which "bigger problem" in a normal off-season usually can't just be fixed. Take a look at how long teams like the dolphins and browns have spent waiting to get lucky and find Perfect Quarterback Prospect right there for the taking. And its so weird, too, because they've drafted offensive lineman like Laremy tunsil and Joe LOL Thomas and yet we're never any good because they lacked a quality player at one position

See, the irony of it is that FORTIFYING THE TRENCHES is almost a curse, because it makes you good enough to never get a player you actually need but never good enough to actually be a good football team.

You don't build a team that way. It doesn't work, and right now, with the next era of NFC South football up for the taking, the Panthers have to aggressively making the Big, Correct moves, because mickey Loomis will, because if we don't, we will all gleefully sit here circle jerking each other over how we did it "THE RIGHT WAY" with our hog mollies as we coast to 7-9 and Sean Payton turns Jordan love or whatever into Patrick mahomes.

 

The last Tackle the Brown took in the 1st round was Joe Thomas in 2007!

In that time Miami drafted Jeremy Tunsil, Jake Long, and Ja'Wuan James.

Both teams drafted an equal amount of QBs in the 1st. The only 1 that has semi-panned out has been Mayfield who was disappointing in Year 2.

On the other hand, the Tackles have been to far more Pro Bowls and 3 of them are or were considered top level players in their careers.

[Snake]

24 minutes ago, Madwolf said:

Oh goody, here we go:

2020: Eric Fisher - #1 Pick in the draft 2013 to KC (KC)

2019: Trent Brown - 7th round pick in 2015 to SF (NE)

2018: Halapoulivaati Vaitai - 5th round pick in 2016 to Phi (Phi)

2017: Nate Solder - Pick #17 in the 2013 draft to NE (NE)

2016: Ryan Harris - 3rd Round pick 2007 draft to DEN (DEN)

2015: Nate Solder - Pick #17 in the 2013 draft to NE (NE)

2014: Russel Okung - Pick #6 in the 2010 draft to SEA (SEA)

2013: Bryant McKinnie - Pick #7 in the 2002 draft to MIN (BAL)

2012: David Diehl - 5th round pick 2003 draft to NYG (NYG)

2011: Jonathan Scott - 5th round pick 2006 draft to DET (PIT)

So in 10 years, half the Super Bowl winners started a 1st round LT.

 

 

 

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, raz said:

this makes your point better than your previous posts.    no one is saying a qb isn't the most important.  some people don't think we should draft a qb this year.   1 person here thinks cam is better than mahomes and will be over the next 5 years.  i know - its hilarious.   

we solidify the o-line and we won't get a shot at a top qb next year.  cam plays the whole year and we won't get a shot at a top qb next year.  either way we're at #7 right now and i think we need to take a qb first too, then solidify the line from the inside out and grab a dt

But you do honestly think the most likely guy available(and that is a big IF, as well), Herbert, is THE guy?

And I ask that question probably not being overly upset if we did take him there.

[Growl]

22 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

The Panthers may have varying "big problems" depending on what we do in free agency. The roster may have many holes or few, that is to be determined. The hole at LT has existed for years now, that really hasn't change much since we had an average-ish LT in Michael Oher.

As to the rest of your post, where do you see any sort of inference from me that QB is not the most important position in football(not just college but the NFL)? Do we have a hole a QB? TBD, same with most of our other offseason problems. If Cam returns, not much of an issue(outside of needing to improve the backup QB). If Cam does not return, six alarm fire bad sort of issue. That is a wholly different discussion but one that also warrants looking at the actual QB prospects. You don't just draft "a QB" when they aren't a guy you believe is a franchise caliber QB. Not to mention....have you SEEN the QB's that a lot of those top 10 franchises have drafted recently? It's a fuging crapshoot and bad franchises miss a LOT more on QB's than they hit. Take a look at the last 20-25 years of QB's that got drafted in the first round. It's rough. Why do you think we have literally only had one in our entire franchise's existence?

You build a good team by getting good players, not drafting out of panicked need. If that means taking a LT, DT, LB, etc, etc, etc, over a QB, then that is what you do. It doesn't mean you ignore the QB position(after all there are later rounds and free agency that also exist) but you cannot squander a sure thing on a questionable prospect. This draft appears to be pretty weak in the QB category, so I would not want to see the Panthers reach on a guy at #7(like Herbert or Tua) when we have so many other potential and current needs on the roster. 

Herbert is my favorite QB of the bunch(with Tua having such a bad injury history) but I would not want to take him at #7, even if Cam didn't return. I also wouldn't want to trade the farm for Burrow because I think he has a limited ceiling in the NFL. 

This line of thinking is too small. The draft isn't just about whether or not cam can come back for one or two more seasons. It's about the next era of NFCS football.

*Analytically* speaking, the odds of the Panthers being in this kind of position to get a franchise QB is a rare, rare opportunity. Not one you can bank on happening again soon. Especially if Cam indeed does return and is "solid" at worst. The Panthers cannot be scared of the opportunity staring them in the face.

The rest of your post just oozes gettlemanesque farcical view on team building. " I don't care if I can get a great prospect at a position of need, the cliches say take inconsequential player at inconsequential position because he has a hilariously arbitrary higher number on my highly mutable draft board!"

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Madwolf said:

The last Tackle the Brown took in the 1st round was Joe Thomas in 2007!

In that time Miami drafted Jeremy Tunsil, Jake Long, and Ja'Wuan James.

Both teams drafted an equal amount of QBs in the 1st. The only 1 that has semi-panned out has been Mayfield who was disappointing in Year 2.

On the other hand, the Tackles have been to far more Pro Bowls and 3 of them are or were considered top level players in their careers.

OL is one of the most consistent bets in the first three rounds of the draft. QB is decidedly less so. That said, the odds of getting a franchise LT and franchise QB are probably just about as slim. 

As I stated earlier, one of the big benefits of taking a franchise caliber LT in the first round is that even if you miss at LT, you may end up with a good RT or OG. 

[Growl]

5 minutes ago, Madwolf said:

The last Tackle the Brown took in the 1st round was Joe Thomas in 2007!

In that time Miami drafted Jeremy Tunsil, Jake Long, and Ja'Wuan James.

Both teams drafted an equal amount of QBs in the 1st. The only 1 that has semi-panned out has been Mayfield who was disappointing in Year 2.

On the other hand, the Tackles have been to far more Pro Bowls and 3 of them are or were considered top level players in their careers.

Guess you gave up on that bad list huh

also we're taking about 1st round picks, top 10 picks more specifically

I feel like I'm pulling teeth trying to convey this to people

The cliche BPA VS NEED argument that is given too much credit here plays second fiddle to a more important tenet

Positional value.

You have to consider that you have opportunities to make real injections of talent now that you won't have next season 

[Madwolf]

35 minutes ago, Growl said:

Lol half of these players are mid round picks (or later) and the other half were terrible players who didn't go with the team who blew a draft pick on them

Now I want one even less. Aside from Brady exceptionalism you definitely can't do the same thing with the QB spot.

And how many of the QBs taken in the 1st  NEVER won a Super Bowl since Brady?

1st Round QBs since 2000:

Chad Pennington

Mike Vick

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Patrick Ramsey

Caron Palmer

Byron Lefwich

Kyle Boller

Rex Grossman

Eli Manning - Super Bowl

Philip Rivers

Ben Rothersburger - Super Bowl

JP Lossman

Alex Smith

Aaron Rodgers - Super Bowl

Jason Campbell

Vince Young

Matt Lienhart

Jay Cutler

Jamarcus Russel

Brady Quinn

Matt Ryan

Joe Flacco - Super Bowl

Matthew Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Josh Freeman

Sam Bradford

The Golden Calf of Bristol

Cam Newton

Jake Locker

Blaine Gabbert

Christian Ponder

Andrew Luck

Robert Griffin

Ryan Tannehill

Brandon Weedon

EJ Emanuel

Blake Bortles

Johnny Manziel

Teddy Bridgewater

Jamis Winston

Marcus Marriota

Jared Goff

Paxton Lynch

Carson Wentz

Mitch Tribusky

Patrick Mahomes - Super Bowl

Desuan Watson

Baker Mayfield

Sam Darnold

Josh Allen

Josh Rosen

Lamar Jackson

Kyler Murray

Daniel Jones

Dwayne Haskins

5 out of 57 have won a Super Bowl since Tom Brady entered the league.

And that's not an argument AGAINST drafting a QB in the 1st round. That's an argument against being suckered into drafting a QB too high at the cost of other positions with players who are more likely to work out.

 

 

[Madwolf]

14 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

OL is one of the most consistent bets in the first three rounds of the draft. QB is decidedly less so. That said, the odds of getting a franchise LT and franchise QB are probably just about as slim. 

As I stated earlier, one of the big benefits of taking a franchise caliber LT in the first round is that even if you miss at LT, you may end up with a good RT or OG. 

Pretty much this exactly. 

[MHS831]

22 minutes ago, Snake said:

So we can have no NT? Do you know how dumb that sounds. 

Or he gets cut and replaced in free agency=I think I figured he would because his production was not up to his salary-imo

[TheRed]

43 minutes ago, Growl said:

I would very aggressively chase the top 2 targets, and if it simply cannot happen, yeah, I'd probably take Herbert.

 Burrow and Tua are rare QB prospects that don't come around a lot. Getting the guy who would normally go #1 overall in a normal draft devoid of those two rare talents is quite the "consolation" prize.

Considering we would likely to have to trade up to be in position for Burrow or Tua, I don't see the justification in a move for Tua when he has serious injury concerns the same as a 30 year old Cam Newton. This is supposed to be a move for the future. If that move carries the same injury risk and costs a top 10 pick it isn't worth it.  If we can't get Burrow, hitching ourselves to either of the other two options in Tua or Herbert just seems like a waste and a way to say at least we tried. That's not how you use top 10 picks and build winning teams.

[Madwolf]

23 minutes ago, Snake said:

So we can have no NT? Do you know how dumb that sounds. 

 

Just now, MHS831 said:

Or he gets cut and replaced in free agency=I think I figured he would because his production was not up to his salary-imo

I think we should spend money on one of the younger NTs in FA this year. We should be able to get a stable presence there without too many years on them. That being said I really like Brown.

[MHS831]

25 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I wouldn't make any assumptions on what moves we are going to make. New coaching staff, new direction, etc. There are too many variables to assume much about our offseason until moves start being made in earnest. Even the rumor mill is pretty silent on what we plan to do with our current unrestricted free agents. 

No--you are right.  I guessed. With his production and a $10m cap savings, I figured he would be cut.  Still do--Poe is the third highest paid player on this team--behind Cam and KK.  I just do not see how we keep him--but I could be wrong.