The case against picking an offensive tackle

[stirs]

6 minutes ago, beo said:

that's a good point, but i feel that maybe you could reserve that for day 2 or 3. i can definitely get the line of thinking but there are spots on this team where we have absolutely nothing, like at S, and then at LB it's just shaq with below average backups.  that can change with free agency though and if we sign another starting caliber LB and a starting caliber safety, then i'd be for thomas at tackle and little at guard.

 

what if that 2nd or 4th ranked player is a position we dont need though? BPA is a good idea but you should still base the pick somewhat on need imo

There is also the importance of the position to take into account.

QB is everyones number 1 position and about the only one where you might reach just a bit.

Then there are the guys that protect the QB (OT's) and guys that get after the QB(DE's). Those are the next tier of importance.

Then you have a tier of DT's, CB's, WR's and LB's

Then C, TE, S and RB's

Finally there are the lowly G's

I would not take a G anywhere in the top half of the first round, ever.  Obviously, I am shooting a bit from the hip on the tiers above, but it bears out most of the time.  You can reach just a little for an OT or DE, but after that, do not reach at all.  Get value

[beo]

Just now, stirs said:

There is also the importance of the position to take into account.

QB is everyones number 1 position and about the only one where you might reach just a bit.

Then there are the guys that protect the QB (OT's) and guys that get after the QB(DE's). Those are the next tier of importance.

Then you have a tier of DT's, CB's, WR's and LB's

Then C, TE, S and RB's

Finally there are the lowly G's

I would not take a G anywhere in the top half of the first round, ever.  Obviously, I am shooting a bit from the hip on the tiers above, but it bears out most of the time.  You can reach just a little for an OT or DE, but after that, do not reach at all.  Get value

i agree with you on value, reaching is stupid especially when your team has holes everywhere so you cant really go wrong with anything

[beo]

upon reading some of the replies though, i've been convinced that if thomas is there you take him just for the prospect of moving little to guard. thanks for the insight regarding it, i totally forgot that little could just get moved to guard if he's good  for whatever reason, and i wasn't factoring in cam's situation. 

[1of10Charnatives]

5 minutes ago, beo said:

That's a good point and i can get that line of thinking but GVR isnt a total disaster at guard either, he'd be more suited as a depth player for sure but he's not absolutely horrific like paradis was last season. If so, why take a tackle with a top 10 selection which is an extremely valuable pick? Why not look around in say the 2nd or 3rd round, or later in the draft, as a plan B. If little doesnt work out and if we somehow get two poo tackles, then take one in the first round next year worst case scenario. I think LB is way more of a glaring hole now post-luke, because  I dont trust what we currently have there. we've got shaq and then 3rd stringers. A lot of this depends on free agency though too i'd say, but hell safety is a giant hole as well, and while DT on paper isnt as bad you can save a hell of a lot of cap space by letting Poe go and replacing him with derrick brown.

What matters more to your success as a team, Qb or MLB?

Being willing to risk two poo tackles carries with it a high risk of losing Cam. Let me paint you the picture of a very real possible scenario:

Cam comes back, plays well, looks MVP caliber a month into the season in Brady’s offense despite somewhat shaky line play.  Ready has him get rid of the ball fast on a high percentage of plays early so Little holds up.

Then Little gets another concussion. Daley is forced into action and we all hold our breathe, but for a couple of games everything seems okay. But NFL defenses react and adapt. The y start playing tighter coverage and jamming to take away the quick throws. This is where Cam’s arm and Samuel’s speed are supposed to shine, but it takes time for those routes to develop. Daley gets exposed when he has to stop premier pass rushers for 3 seconds regularly.

Cam starts to get hit a lot and since the NFL are a bunch of fugtards, illegal hits get overlooked. Cam gets hurt. Tepper has repeatedly used the phrase “if healthy” when talking about Cam’s future. Cam is not resigned after playing lights out early because no one can blame Yepper for not paying 30 million a year for a guy who hasn’t made it through a whole season this presidency.

Thats the reason LT and not gambling on Little matters way more than MLB. Right now, this coming season is an all or nothing proposition on Cam’s future here. It’s imperative we give him every chance to succeed and MLB 1st round doesn’t do that.

[beo]

1 minute ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

What matters more to your success as a team, Qb or MLB?

Being willing to risk two poo tackles carries with it a high risk of losing Cam. Let me paint you the picture of a very real possible scenario:

Cam comes back, plays well, looks MVP caliber a month into the season in Brady’s offense despite somewhat shaky line play.  Ready has him get rid of the ball fast on a high percentage of plays early so Little holds up.

Then Little gets another concussion. Daley is forced into action and we all hold our breathe, but for a couple of games everything seems okay. But NFL defenses react and adapt. The y start playing tighter coverage and jamming to take away the quick throws. This is where Cam’s arm and Samuel’s speed are supposed to shine, but it takes time for those routes to develop. Daley gets exposed when he has to stop premier pass rushers for 3 seconds regularly.

Cam starts to get hit a lot and since the NFL are a bunch of fugtards, illegal hits get overlooked. Cam gets hurt. Tepper has repeatedly used the phrase “if healthy” when talking about Cam’s future. Cam is not resigned after playing lights out early because no one can blame Yepper for not paying 30 million a year for a guy who hasn’t made it through a whole season this presidency.

Thats the reason LT and not gambling on Little matters way more than MLB. Right now, this coming season is an all or nothing proposition on Cam’s future here. It’s imperative we give him every chance to succeed and MLB 1st round doesn’t do that.

yeah, i hear you now. thanks for the insight on it; i totally forgot to factor cam's situation in and was looking at it solely from a position by position standpoint, and not how cam's health could bite us in the ass if little suffered another concussion.

[MHS831]

26 minutes ago, beo said:

That's a good point and i can get that line of thinking but GVR isnt a total disaster at guard either, he'd be more suited as a depth player for sure but he's not absolutely horrific like paradis was last season. If so, why take a tackle with a top 10 selection which is an extremely valuable pick? Why not look around in say the 2nd or 3rd round, or later in the draft, as a plan B. If little doesnt work out and if we somehow get two poo tackles, then take one in the first round next year worst case scenario. I think LB is way more of a glaring hole now post-luke, because  I dont trust what we currently have there. we've got shaq and then 3rd stringers. A lot of this depends on free agency though too i'd say, but hell safety is a giant hole as well, and while DT on paper isnt as bad you can save a hell of a lot of cap space by letting Poe go and replacing him with derrick brown.

GVR is a free agent if I am not mistaken.  He is a very good puller, weak in pass protection, and gave 100% all the time. 

Again, it all depends on how much you like Thomas--personally, I think he is a 12-year pro bowl caliber player.  Little is a question mark---but you are right--do not bury him after 1 season when most OL take 2-3 years to come of age in the NFL.  LT is the second most difficult position to find in the NFL, behind QB, imo. Then I would go 4-3 DE, and CB.  The worst case scenario, as 1of10Charnative says, is you have 2 LTs, the weaker of the two playing G.

LB is a glaring hole, but Shaq has played it--not much without TD on the field, however.  Simmons is a stud. DT is our biggest need.  Here is how I see it:  Which is the most difficult to find in free agency?  LT, MLB, DT, S?  I go with the LT if I have a shot at a franchise LT.  I see what you are saying, however.

[stirs]

Do we even have an idea of what Defense we are running here?  Or, will the staff keep that under wraps until after the draft?  It would certainly have a bearing on who I might pick from a LB perspective

[MHS831]

9 minutes ago, beo said:

yeah, i hear you now. thanks for the insight on it; i totally forgot to factor cam's situation in and was looking at it solely from a position by position standpoint, and not how cam's health could bite us in the ass if little suffered another concussion.

There are so many variables--that is what makes this fun-few of us will be right, and if Marty does what we say, they probably bust.  If we lose Brown and Little becomes a stud LT we have to play at G, we look stupid when the Saints are putting 190 yards rushing on us.  MLB is the need that scares me the most, but it is not (imo) our biggest need---yet.

[beo]

Just now, MHS831 said:

GVR is a free agent if I am not mistaken.  He is a very good puller, weak in pass protection, and gave 100% all the time. 

Again, it all depends on how much you like Thomas--personally, I think he is a 12-year pro bowl caliber player.  Little is a question mark---but you are right--do not bury him after 1 season when most OL take 2-3 years to come of age in the NFL.  LT is the second most difficult position to find in the NFL, behind QB, imo. Then I would go 4-3 DE, and CB.  The worst case scenario, as 1of10Charnative says, is you have 2 LTs, the weaker of the two playing G.

LB is a glaring hole, but Shaq has played it--not much without TD on the field, however.  Simmons is a stud. DT is our biggest need.  Here is how I see it:  Which is the most difficult to find in free agency?  LT, MLB, DT, S?  I go with the LT if I have a shot at a franchise LT.  I see what you are saying, however.

GVR would be a phenomenal depth player imo, there's nobody i'd like having as depth than GVR. a hardworker who isnt as talented but is on 100% at all times.  issue is that he's a starter. but yeah, looking in hindsight, you could probably find a LB more easily. infact here's a list of avaliable LBS this yr

trevathan, ragland, woodyard, klein and van noy could all be potential signings for the right price. by contrast the only FA this yr at tackle that seems to be convincing is castonzo who i recall was solid for indy, or a 38 year old whitworth. so yeah, i think that, if thomas is there then it would probably be the right choice to pick him up and shift little to guard. that'd be a damn decent line honestly, and if paradis heals, we could have a solid unit.

[beo]

1 minute ago, stirs said:

Do we even have an idea of what Defense we are running here?  Or, will the staff keep that under wraps until after the draft?  It would certainly have a bearing on who I might pick from a LB perspective

rhule confirmed a switch to a 4-3 iirc

2 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

There are so many variables--that is what makes this fun-few of us will be right, and if Marty does what we say, they probably bust.  If we lose Brown and Little becomes a stud LT we have to play at G, we look stupid when the Saints are putting 190 yards rushing on us.  MLB is the need that scares me the most, but it is not (imo) our biggest need---yet.

lol yeah thats the wonder of pre draft speculation, the jaguars taking blaine gabbert over jj watt

good times

[stirs]

Combine is must see TV this year

[stirs]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001098476/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospect-rankings-for-2020-nfl-draft-10?campaign=tw-cf-sf228701221-sf228701221&sf228701221=1

 

If this indeed was the Panther board, we'd almost have to take a DT like Brown, but the value on our board with be all defense as we know the QB's will be gone

[Black&BlueBubba]

While I will still be interested in looking at a LT, let’s not forget that Hurney has a man crush on Little.  And the Hurndog is still here.  Little will be our starting LT whether we like it or not.  

[stirs]

This kid is a player.  Not sure which round we could get him, but 3rd day would be a steal

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-draft-kyle-dugger-could-be-the-next-great-d2-prospect/