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Rhule on Cam


ncfan

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On 1/27/2020 at 6:37 AM, Mr. Scot said:

Reports back around midseason were that "at least ten teams" were prepared to trade for Newton even while he was injured. Guess it depends on how seriously you take those reports.

I would say that I've found it best not to underestimate the ability of some team somewhere in the NFL to do something crazy. Johnny Manziel was drafted in the first round. A team traded a first round pick for Sam Bradford. Heck, we threw big money at Jake Delhomme after that disaster of a playoff game against the Cardinals and we're still paying the GM that made that dumbass move (among others).

Ya never know...

Manziel was almost unanimously projected to go top 10 if not top 5.  It was considered a bit of a shock that he fell to 22 if you don't remember. 

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On 1/26/2020 at 3:50 PM, Tepper's Chest Hair said:

If there is a vague rumor with no sources, obviously its a fact.

If its a coach directly saying something, then we need to doubt it and deconstruct it.

People see into things what they want, regardless of how impartial they claim to be.

 

Even when you're aware of it, it's hard not to do. I fight against the tendency to accept things that agree with me and auto discount things that don't, but it's a constant struggle. I've read some interesting books lately about the mind and perception and decision making, and they are eye opening to say the least.

I do think there's nothing wrong with taking into account the motivations of the source of a comment like a coach, but if you're gonna do that, you need to do it all the time, not just when it suits you.

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6 hours ago, Moo Daeng said:

Manziel was almost unanimously projected to go top 10 if not top 5.  It was considered a bit of a shock that he fell to 22 if you don't remember. 

Eh...he was projected to go top ten top five by many folks, but later rounds by others. There was no clear consensus on Manziel that I recall. Many were high on him but many others thought he was marginal at best. Predictions on where he would get drafted were all over the board. Turns out the people who said later were right, they just weren't always the loudest voices with the best haircuts on tv.

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30 minutes ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

Eh...he was projected to go top ten top five by many folks, but later rounds by others. There was no clear consensus on Manziel that I recall. Many were high on him but many others thought he was marginal at best. Predictions on where he would get drafted were all over the board. Turns out the people who said later were right, they just weren't always the loudest voices with the best haircuts on tv.

It wasnt a shock that he went in the first round  no matter what.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap2000000348437/article/johnny-manziel-slides-to-cleveland-browns-in-2014-nfl-draft

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9 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

Not saying it was a shock, just that the expectation he would go top of the first wasn't universal.

Look the criteria for being on tv isn't accuracy, it's personality and appearance. TV is the loudest most noticeable medium, therefore generally speaking people remember what talking heads on ESPN say more than most evaluations, but because the criteria those prognosticators are selected on it's primarily accuracy, over time they tend to be less accurate than some guys who maybe aren't as photogenic or bombastic, but take their craft really seriously.

What I remember is a lot of guys on tv being really high on Manziel, while some other folks less in the spotlight were a lot more dubious. The dubious ones turned out to be right, but for our point here, no I'm not arguing it was shocking he went in the first. What was shocking was that Jerry Jones actually listened to his football people and took a lineman instead of Manziel. I'm guessing you follow things closely enough to know who that lineman turned out to be.

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2 hours ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

Even when you're aware of it, it's hard not to do. I fight against the tendency to accept things that agree with me and auto discount things that don't, but it's a constant struggle. I've read some interesting books lately about the mind and perception and decision making, and they are eye opening to say the least.

I do think there's nothing wrong with taking into account the motivations of the source of a comment like a coach, but if you're gonna do that, you need to do it all the time, not just when it suits you.

did you get to the part about the brain that explains how our conscious minds are living .25-.5 seconds in the past?  about how the decisions we think we make consiouusly were already made for us by an inaccessible portion of our brains.   we literally have 0 control over the decisions we make, but we think we do.  the only thing you can do to combat this is make sure you give your brain lots of choices, but you still have no control over what your brain decides consciously from those choices.    its a crazy crazy thing, the brain

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2 minutes ago, raz said:

did you get to the part about the brain that explains how our conscious minds are living .25-.5 seconds in the past?  about how the decisions we think we make consiouusly were already made for us by an inaccessible portion of our brains.   we literally have 0 control over the decisions we make, but we think we do.  the only thing you can do to combat this is make sure you give your brain lots of choices, but you still have no control over what your brain decides consciously from those choices.    its a crazy crazy thing, the brain

Thinking about this makes my brain hurt.

Its Saturday, I don’t really wanna have ta brain today.

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