Marty Hurney - The Drafting Record

[rippadonn]

The jury is still out on Donte. He was beasting last year. Struggled this year after the injuries and then lost the only NFL coach he'd ever had very abruptly and as expected showed his youth in dealing with it. Ease up.

[Zithers2]

9 minutes ago, bobowilson said:

If you look at the trade value chart actual GMs use to make trades and identify how worthwhile draft picks are, you'll see that a 1st round pick is worth 3x to 4x as much as a second round pick.

So to translate that, one first round bust is equivalent to busting on 4 2nd round picks.

People dont comprehend the gravity of this, and severely underestimate how important it is for us to have someone at the helm who in two decades has never missed on a first round pick.

Maybe these numbers are too abstract for many, but they certainly aren't for Tepper.  I was not at all surprised he chose to keep Hurney around.

Having Hurney nailing 1st rounders at the helm and whiffing elsewhere has led to 8-8 or worse records ten times in thirteen seasons. Do you comprehend the gravity of that? LMAO!

[bobowilson]

19 minutes ago, Zithers2 said:

Having Hurney nailing 1st rounders at the helm and whiffing elsewhere has led to 8-8 or worse records ten times in thirteen seasons. Do you comprehend the gravity of that? LMAO!

I mean Jake Delhomme was our QB, and was extremely mediocre (sometimes a lot worse);  I've never claimed Hurney was good with free agency, and we were never in position to draft a high end QB due to our mediocrity (until 2011, and then when we did, we drafted an MVP who took us to the Super Bowl before injuries derailed his brilliance).  To be honest, other than Drew Brees, franchise QBs didn't/dont exist in free agency anyways.

And no spending a 2nd round pick on a QB is not a real allocation of draft capital;  probably 90% of 2nd round QBs fail in the NFL.

Hurney hung onto Jake far too long, and while this demonstrated a failure in managing ability, it has nothing to do with the NFL draft which is the topic of discussion.

You're only as good as your QB in this league.   You can say he should have picked Aaron Rodgers instead of Thomas Davis, but that's really an unfair standard (especially considering the success we were having at the time).

Despite Jake's glaring mediocrity, we still would have won a Superbowl with him if the Patriots weren't stealing our signals (testament to the overall talent on our roster).

[BurnHurnBurn]

2 hours ago, bobowilson said:

So we're redefining these super high draft picks to include 14 now, which if I didn't know better, would seem on the surface, to be the middle of the 1st round.

fug it, let's just say DJ Moore was a super high pick too while we're at it

And the Peppers pick was a result of the Seifert regime going 1-15, before Hurney was hired as GM (if you want to say he was defacto GM, then you're going to have give him credit for drafting Steve Smith in the 3rd round)

Quote me next time so I can see your sad arguments.

Top half of the round.  If you cant pick a good one between 1 & 16 you should be fired.  And that's ALL he can do.  A first rounder every year and that's it.  Well, maybe a shitty contract or two.  But 1 good player per year.  Not the best way to build a roster.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

2 hours ago, Zithers2 said:

Having Hurney nailing 1st rounders at the helm and whiffing elsewhere has led to 8-8 or worse records ten times in thirteen seasons. Do you comprehend the gravity of that? LMAO!

Exactly. 

Hitting on first rounders is great, but if you can't surround those players with a decent supporting cast you'll never be a consistent winner.  The typical team rosters constructed by Marty Hurney lack the needed depth and are full of holes.  

That is why even Gettleman was able to secure just as many division titles as Marty in less than half the time.

[pantherj]

2 hours ago, Kinographer said:

Saying Cam was an easy #1 choice is some revisionist history. The only reason all of the mock drafts had us taking Cam was because at some point it became obvious that was going to be the pick.  There were several options at #1 overall

• Nick Fairley
• AJ Green
• Patrick Peterson
• Marcell Dareus
• Blaine Gabbert

Cam Newton was seen as a massive risk at the time. If you try to say otherwise you either weren't around for the debates or you have memory loss. Ron and Hurney deserve a ton of credit for taking Cam when most people wanted them to build around Jimmy Clausen.

At the time a lot of the top posters wanted Fairly, PP8, Green, Dareus, or trade down. They thought Cam would be like Jamarcus Russell, and that Cam would not be able to run at the NFL level. Things only changed when we got close to the draft and the media started saying we would draft Cam. The Huddle plan for QB was Carson Palmer. It was a hilarious time. I wanted Cam or AJ Green.

[Eazy-E]

I will never understand why Hurney gets poo for the trade up to pick Otah. Dude was a fuging mauler and on track to becoming a pro bowl RT until he got injured.

They is no way someone can predict how a player will respond to getting injured. Otah didn’t have the mental desire to fight through it all and ate himself out of the NFL. 

It’s the same reason why it is so risky paying players huge contracts. It’s like a 50/50 chance they get fat and unmotivated until a contract year roles around again.

You think it’s just a coincidence that Vernon Butler all of a sudden starts playing half way decent after the Panthers declined his 5th year option?

[pantherj]

1 hour ago, Kinographer said:

 Kevin Kolb was a really popular name too. I'm sure there were some people who wanted Jake Locker. There was a debate of Cam vs. Gabbert. I also remember a lot of people wanting to trade down and take Dalton/Kaepernick in a later round. Cam was basically being looked at as The Golden Calf of Bristol 2.0 and even after he was drafted, a lot of people wanted him to sit on the bench for a year "like Aaron Rodgers". 

 

I'm guessing some people were either too young to actually remember this or were Auburn fans at the time. It was similar to when the Browns drafted Mayfield and half the world called them a bunch of idiots.

I ripped Gabbert pretty hard whenever someone suggested him. It was anyone but Cam around here until we were very close to the draft. I remember a few people liking Locker.

After Cam was drafted a flood of Auburn fans basically took over this forum.

 

[Ricky Spanish]

10 hours ago, bobowilson said:

Cracka McNasty, I appreciate that you actually tried to put the time in to understand this topic and did your own research (which is more than most), but it would take me hours to dissect all the methodological flaws in your analysis

I believe Football Outsiders actually did one of these a few years ago and had the Panthers rated fourth in the NFL (although they mixed in Gettleman with Hurney).

One of the problems is you guys value a depth 6th rounder as much as a superstar 1st rounder.

Like if one general manager busted in the 1st round and drafted a quality 'depth guy' in the 6th, you'd somehow view it as equal as doing the reverse.  A star 1st rounder is worth somewhere in the magnitude of 10-15x a depth guy.

Look at how many draft picks the Falcons gave up to move up to get Julio Jones.  Do you think they regret it?

One Cam Newton has the impact of 30 David Mayos.

 

Actually you do raise a good point. 1st round picks are more valuable than all the others and you expect a 1st rounder to be a starter, you don't expect 6th round picks to do anything but compete for a roster spot. Is there a spreadsheet version of the draft value chart? If so, we can combine the two methods to get a true assessment of his skill at drafting overall by weighing the value of the pick in the draft of the vs the CarAV to give a more complete picture of how good/bad each team has been getting actual value on high value draft picks. Like a CarAV based on draft value calculation or something. My hypothesis is that the most successful teams find the most high CarAV players in draft positions that have low draft day value. I'd be very interested to see this because I could be completely wrong. But I'm all for getting into the nitty gritty of the data. 

[JARROD]

21 hours ago, CarolinaNCSU said:

Yes, another Hurney thread.  But wanted a more all-encompassing look based on the now famous Tepper quote below...

Not meant to be a Hurney/Gettleman pissing match. Just a complete look at Hurney's draft record and where he's gone right (and wrong). Linking in the site at the bottom with the complete pick history, not trying to post that. 

Hurney 1.0

• 2002 - Pretty solid IMO.  Peppers, DeShaun, Will Witherspoon, Dante Wesley being the top 4 picks is strong. But...kind of hard to mess up drafting Peppers so how much of this is truly great evaluation? 
• 2003 - Yeesh. Jordan Gross. That's...it.  Ricky Manning had moments, especially for a late 3rd rounder, but again Hurney didn't mess up a Top 10 pick so congrats?
• 2004 - Chris Gamble at 28 is a great pick and Hurney should get some credit. Wharton as a late 3rd was also very solid.  The Keary Colbert pick still stings, but in a draft with 6 picks, he hit 2 pretty great guys especially considering draft postion. 
• 2005 - Thomas Davis, as a converted player, great pick. Only problem is...the other 9 picks. Evan Mathis and Geoff Hangartner were here...but Mathis wouldn't find (All-Pro & Pro-Bowl success) until he left Carolina. Hangartner was solid, but looking back this was bad. 
• 2006 - DeAngelo, Richard Marshall, James Anderson are solid for the Top 3. Even Jeff King was a decent #2/3 TE, but still just a good draft. 
• 2007 - I wanted Olsen, Marty trades back and gets...Beason. Great pick, as were Kalil and CJ value wise.  Dwayne Jarrett, though. 
• 2008 - Why not another RB? I love JStew, Double Trouble was great, but this is where the RB contracts would kill us. Trading a pick to come back for Otah still hurts. Godfrey, Connor, Barnidge, Schwartz, and even Mackenzy Bernadeau would be solid...but bad contracts and some of these guys not reaching their potential, until they left us, hurts again.
  • Common theme throughout this - - Hurney actually drafted A LOT of OL. He either just gave up on them too quickly, or they were more late round/depth picks. 
• 2009 - God. Everette Brown.  The best thing was 7th round pick Captain.  This draft alone should've gotten him fired. Especially with Hurney trading away another future 1st to go get Everette Brown in the 2nd round. 
• 2010 - Clausen! Best pick ever...because it got us Cam the next year.  Sadly, we wouldn't have pick #33 (our 2nd rounder) because Hurney wanted Armanti Edwards in the 3rd round.  Hardy, though. Who despite being the Top Prospect in 2010's Sports Illustrated, dropped to the 6th round.  That's not an eye for talent, that's a roll of the dice. 
• 2011 - Cameron Jerrell Newton.  And then 7 picks of pure poo. 
• 2012 - Luke. A lot here hated the Luke pick, but honestly...should Hurney even get credit for picking the safest prospect in the damn draft? Josh as a 5th rounder was great, the rest is nothing including our old friend Amini in the 2nd round because his tape beating up Division 11 tiny people was too good to pass on. 
  • From 2009 to 2012 - 32 total picks - - Hurney found honestly 6-7 people who even belonged on a football field including Cam/Luke.

Andddd break.  Hurney 1.0.  He's always been able to hit 1st rounders (Otah is the only miss), but my God any GM worth their poo should be able to hit 1st rounders with a high percentage.  Especially when half of Hurney's 1st rounders were in the Top 10. Hurney's issue, was the trading away of future 1st or 2nd rounders which gave him little wiggle room to miss. Which he did, a lot. As most GMs do...but couple that with the fact that more than a few of his drafted guys only found success AFTER LEAVING...not a good look. 

Hurney 2.0

• 2018 - DJ Moore is a stud, Donte showed promise but may behave his way out of the league, and Haynes is a depth guy at best. The great Ian Thomas experiment is the new Swole Bones to me and until he proves he can be healthy or get on the field, don't think he's part of any plan going forward. 
  • So...gun to head players still on this team in 2 years?  1 - DJ Moore. A 1st rounder.
• 2019 - Brian Burns will be great if healthy, but again what else?  Hurney blew his load drafting Little (he wanted him in the 1st), but injuries have already caused pessimism here. Daley in the 6th is value, but again, depth at this point. Grier? Ha. Christian Miller was injured or on a milk carton. Scarlett didn't play. Godwin was cut. 
  • So again...who's on this team in 2 years? Burns for sure, and we'll go with both tackles though neither have proven too much after only a year. 

 

From Rounds 2-7 - Around 92 draft picks during Hurney's reign.  About 25% even belong on a football field or saw decent playing time. Some were Panthers greats, some were merely JAGs.  Not that we didn't already know this, but Hurney's 1st round record has carried him...because when you look at everything else, sweet baby Jesus.  Couple in some of the contracts/team management, some of that 25% above not even finding success for THIS TEAM and exactly what in the hell is David Tepper talking about when it comes to Marty Hurney being "one of the best recognizers of college talent in the nation"?

 

Hurney's Drafts

For Posterity I would like to see Hurneys draft record versus other 13 year GMs.

more damning or vindicating?

[Billy Love]

Will Grier was at the top of Hurney's QB draft board in 2019. Let that sink in.

[panthers55]

This discussion just reinforces the notion that finding gems in the draft is really not very easy and finding guys that play significant minutes after the third round is even harder. It is easy to nitpick what Hurney has done but unless you compare it to other GMs and account for value for each pick, you don't have a comparison level. If Tepper who is heavy into data and analytics says Hurney is one of the best drafters, I would suspect he has reasons to say that besides simple hyperbole.

[Diehardpanther02]

On 1/1/2020 at 5:39 PM, bobowilson said:

This will be another 10 page thread where ill informed fans talk endlessly about Hurney's mid round 'busts', and expose that they literally don't follow any of the other 31 teams in the NFL (completely unaware of the statistical success rate of non 1st round picks league wide).

If they are confronted with the raw data about how your average 2nd, 3rd, 4-7th round pick fares in the NFL, a combination of conservatism bias, clustering illusion, availability heuristics, and other mental biases will prevent them from any sort of realistic assessment of his record.

Unfortunately, your average sports fan is terrible at evaluating the merits of an executive.  Thankfully, David Tepper spent his entire life having to make these type of judgments.

But go on lads, talk about Armanti Edwards and Jimmy Clausen for another 8 pages and ignore the fact that 31 other teams bust on the vast vast majority of their mid round picks.

 

Except for the Patriots it seems. They give away that late first rounders constantly for decent FA pick ups at WR then seem to find really quality players in the mid rounds.

 

I could be wrong, there is no research to back this other than just what I've noticed being a fan. Brady is a prime example of the difference it makes being good in the mid rounds. And honestly it's indicative of winning programs. Teams that constantly make the playoffs and win some games usually pick low therefore I guess they just learn to find a way to get better at mid rounds draft picks by experience alone.

 

The early round picks I feel like most could do that watch the game of football. The top 15 players in the draft all can ball, but that doesn't mean they won't fail do to attitude, effort and Health. Drafting early seems to be more of a character guess as opposed to skill set. Finding them late has more to do with technique, skill set, and knowledge. And that falls alot on coaching.  

Judging anyone by draft picks is difficult because people act like that is the only job for the GM. They have much more to do behind the seems that draft 6-7 players. I say if Tepper can surround Hurney with professionals that have a proven track record Hurney could be an asset. But if he doesn't stick to what he's saying it could back fire. Hurney shouldn't be responsible for all Franchise functions like he has been. But to say his experience is no longer valuable maybe a bit to much.

 

I guess we shall see.