Marty Hurney - The Drafting Record

[bobowilson]

Cracka McNasty, I appreciate that you actually tried to put the time in to understand this topic and did your own research (which is more than most), but it would take me hours to dissect all the methodological flaws in your analysis

I believe Football Outsiders actually did one of these a few years ago and had the Panthers rated fourth in the NFL (although they mixed in Gettleman with Hurney).

One of the problems is you guys value a depth 6th rounder as much as a superstar 1st rounder.

Like if one general manager busted in the 1st round and drafted a quality 'depth guy' in the 6th, you'd somehow view it as equal as doing the reverse.  A star 1st rounder is worth somewhere in the magnitude of 10-15x a depth guy.

Look at how many draft picks the Falcons gave up to move up to get Julio Jones.  Do you think they regret it?

One Cam Newton has the impact of 30 David Mayos.

 

[BurnHurnBurn]

He sucks ass for quarters with a 50 cent rebate.

[Toomers]

12 minutes ago, bobowilson said:

We pulled Greg Hardy, Brandon Lafell, and Robert McCalin out of 2010

Lafell was underrated by Panthers fans who were expecting him to be a WR1, but had a nice seasons with New England and Cincy (especially for a third round pick).

It was a bad draft, but I'm defending it to contrast to the 2006 and 2007 Patriots drafts.

Check out the 2006 and 2007 patriots drafts;  one half decent defensive back and a kicker was all they got out of 2 drafts;  worse than Hurney's 2009 and 2010

Should the 2006 and 2007 Patriots drafts justify no franchise ever giving Bill Belichick more than an advisory role?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/draft.htm

 

Problem is, when you have 6 SB rings, it doesn’t matter. When you can’t make the playoffs once every four years, it tends to matter. 

[BurnHurnBurn]

1 hour ago, bobowilson said:

evidence for why Hurney has been so excellent at the draft for two decades.

There is zero evidence.

1 hour ago, bobowilson said:

His draft record is so unimpeachable, the critics who have developed an emotional resentment towards him have to attack a fictitious Marty Hurney who made hypothetical trades and selections in his mind that never actually transpired.  

No, the trades he did make were bad enough.  It's really bad.  His draft trades.  Awful.

1 hour ago, bobowilson said:

Because it's actually hard to critique a guy who has the most consistent record of drafting high end talent in the entire NFL over the past 2 decades.  I think Ozzie Newsome actually had a better record (better, but less consistent), but he retired.   And with Newsome, you could actually point to countless 1st round busts. 

No its not.  His teams blow, so he drafts high.  The higher the pick the better chance to hit.  He hit.  1st round...then not so much.  Ozzie has a ring.  And he got gone.

1 hour ago, bobowilson said:

I think the most ironic thing about the obsession with the decade old Armanti Edwards trade

Is that you justify it?  

 

Marty Hurney is a turd in a trash can, not sure why its there but you know it stinks.

[bobowilson]

Something I've never understood is how people rationalize that Hurney can both

(1) be the best drafter in the 1st round of anyone in the NFL [something even most of his critics concede)

and reconcile that with all these hyperbolic statements about how dumb he is, how he couldn't get a job as a janitor and has no fitness for any role in the NFL;   did he somehow magically stumble into 13 excellent 1st round picks, or must there be some part of him that is excellent at scouting talent?  So he can draft DJ Moore at 24, Chris Gamble at 28, Jon Beason at 25, but there's some magic force field that turns him into an idiot a few picks later?

Hurney must be a moron, he worked as a journalist!  Why is a guy who wrote for the Washington Times in his 20s working in a front office position! [wait, are journalists less intelligent than people who spent their entire life in football?]   Ernie Accorsi was a reporter for Charlotte News before he got involved in football.   Ron Wolf wrote for Pro Football Illustrated after he got out of the army.  Pete Carroll sold roofing materials to make ends meet.    You might want to recheck your assumptions that you must lack intellect if you didn't spend your entire life in only football.   Someone being able to work their way up the NFL hierarchy despite not being part of the typical network (where people get hired for who their fathers are), is actually more impressive, not evidence of their inferior intellect.  he got his job because he told Seifert to draft Steve Smith and Jenkins, not because his dad's last name was Wolf.

 

--if your retort is, "well, they're just 1st round picks, anyone can do that", you're going to have to explain the extremely high bust rate of 1st round picks across all decades in NFL history (even for Hall of Fame GMs)

--if your second retort is that he always drafts extremely high, well that's just inaccurate as you can look at the data to see he has only had 4 top 10 picks in his entire career

 

 

[bobowilson]

19 minutes ago, BurnHurnBurn said:

His teams blow, so he drafts high.

He doesn't though [draft high]

Like people keep saying this, and I wonder, are they actually Panthers fans?   Because I would think Panthers fans would know how rare it was for us to have really bad seasons;  we've certainly been mediocre for long periods of time, but it was extremely rare that we were awful.

Are Huddlers just really bad with memory?

2010 and 2011 were the only years since he was hired in which we finished worse than 7-9 prior to this year [we still haven't seen who he will draft].

That's two years in a a career that started two decades ago, and people keep repeating how high he drafts.  Like where have you guys been?   This thread is fascinating exploration into people's need to hold their beliefs.

 

[BurnHurnBurn]

9 minutes ago, bobowilson said:

He doesn't though [draft high]

Like people keep saying this, and I wonder, are they actually Panthers fans?   Because I would think Panthers fans would know how rare it was for us to have really bad seasons;  we've certainly been mediocre for long periods of time, but it was extremely rare that we were awful.

Are Huddlers just really bad with memory?

2010 and 2011 were the only years since he was hired in which we finished worse than 7-9 prior to this year [we still haven't seen who he will draft].

That's two years in a a career that started two decades ago, and people keep repeating how high he drafts.  Like where have you guys been?   This thread is fascinating exploration into people's need to hold their beliefs.

 

Ive been right here stuck in the same suck for 25 years.  Where is this master Hurney and all his trophies?  How many years does this ass hat get to ruin?  How many?

You're so wrong...

Pep - 2nd overall

Gross- 8th overall

TD - 14th overall

Stew - 13th overall

Cam - 1st overall

Luke - 9th overall

The other 1st rounders were after playoffs or traded away.  Does that look like low value draft picks to you?

[bobowilson]

So we're redefining these super high draft picks to include 14 now, which if I didn't know better, would seem on the surface, to be the middle of the 1st round.

fug it, let's just say DJ Moore was a super high pick too while we're at it

And the Peppers pick was a result of the Seifert regime going 1-15, before Hurney was hired as GM (if you want to say he was defacto GM, then you're going to have give him credit for drafting Steve Smith in the 3rd round)

[rippadonn]

I was furious when he drafted Luke over an obvious need at DT and Michael Brockers there for the taking. He proved me wrong there.

I was a Hurney hater for much of his last tenure not understanding how much JR was involved behind the scenes.

My beef with Hurney was that he would never invest in a DT in the first round and because of that the middle of the defense was getting gashed with impunity.

Hurney gets fired and the first thing Gettleman does is draft both Star AND KK. Gettlemagic I was saying until Gettleman became such a douche to some of the best Panthers ever and f'd up the Josh Norman deal.

We collected hog mollie WR's who were then fed the ball and Hardee's thick burgers to no avail. Without Cam forcing the ball to KB dude would have been just average.

Relationships are very important in business and football. Gettlemans cut throat , penny pinching, disrespectful attitude toward top talent made him an unfit manager no matter his scouting resume.

David Tepper apparently values good managers and a guy who gets the franchises highest picks right almost every time.

Otah was a complete beast until his knee gave out. That was a great pick until injury. These folk who think Hurney isn't worth a crap probably don't think Cam is worth a crap either. In both cases they are highly underestimating.

[bobowilson]

Even though the claim that Hurney often picked high is objectively false from the data set, let's just play devil's advocate and pretend he had the #1 overall pick in the draft every single year.

Here is some sobriety on how challenging the NFL draft is to most GMs not named Marty Hurney

Here are the last 20 1st overall picks;  the most interesting part of this list is, Cam Newton is literally the best #1 pick over the past 2 decades (I wonder who drafted him?)  Not only was he one of the most controversial and difficult picks, he was also the best [no Eli Manning was not better than Cam]

Look at how EASY IT IS TO DRAFT HIGH!

 

[Peon Awesome]

Damn there's plenty to complain about Hurney but now people are going to poke holes in his first round track record? When you do that, you pretty much prove you've lost objectivity. I mean not giving credit for drafting Kuechly cause he was the "safest pick" even though we were set at middle linebacker and 8 other teams passed on him. Yeah I'm sure those 8 teams knew he'd be a first ballot hall of famer but preferred a riskier option with an even higher ceiling. Even Peppers wasn't a sure thing.. I remember there was a lot of buzz around Harrington and some people pegged us as drafting Quentin Jammer. Peppers had serious question marks about his motor. And we always drafted high? Sure... too bad that's something that is easy to look up and disprove. Maybe his hall of famers came in his top 10 picks but he drafted several pro bowl caliber talents in the teens and 20's.

Listen, Hurney has made a ton of mistakes, some of which he will rightfully never live down. But let's not pretend the guy doesn't know how to hit his first round picks out of the park. I fully support bringing someone else in to effectively take over the majority of GM duties but if Hurney is kept around solely to help make 1st round picks, I'm down for it.

[Zithers2]

Second rounders taken under Hurney ranked from worst to best:

Eric Shelton
Bruce Nelson
Dwayne Jarrett
Jimmy Clausen
Greg Little
Everette Brown
Donte Jackson
Keary Colbert
Amini Silatolu
Deshaun Foster
Richard Marshall
Ryan Kalil

Over 13 years he found 2.5 longer-term starters in the second round. His fourth best pick was a backup guard that hung around for awhile. Not really sure how anyone can defend this. I get that there are hits and misses in the draft but this is pretty overwhelming evidence that he simply has no idea what he is doing.

And for fun, Gettleman got Curtis Samuel, James Bradberry, Devin Funchess, Kony Ealy, Taylor Moton, and KK Short in his five drafts in the second round. One was a day one starter, one of them was an All-Pro, and three or four will be starting for us next season. We aren't even sure Little or Donte will start for us next year. LMFAO!!!

[bobowilson]

2 minutes ago, Peon Awesome said:

Damn there's plenty to complain about Hurney but now people are going to poke holes in his first round track record? When you do that, you pretty much prove you've lost objectivity.

I mean it's even worse than people pretending Luke was super obvious

You have Mr. Scot making up fake stories about how Hurney said he wanted to draft Carr over Peppers, and then just not responding when asked to provide evidence of this claim

His record is so unimpeachable people have to debate against a fictitious alternate reality Hurney

[bobowilson]

4 minutes ago, Zithers2 said:

Second rounders taken under Hurney ranked from worst to best:
 

If you look at the trade value chart actual GMs use to make trades and identify how worthwhile draft picks are, you'll see that a 1st round pick is worth 3x to 4x as much as a second round pick.

So to translate that, one first round bust is equivalent to busting on 4 2nd round picks.

People dont comprehend the gravity of this, and severely underestimate how important it is for us to have someone at the helm who in two decades has never missed on a first round pick.

Maybe these numbers are too abstract for many, but they certainly aren't for Tepper.  I was not at all surprised he chose to keep Hurney around.