Tua returning?

[raleigh-panther]

1 hour ago, CRA said:

just be wasting a 2nd rounder.  Probably can get a 1st round caliber WR w/ our 2nd round pick. 

I think giving Cam 1 year to prove he can get healthy makes a lot of sense.  Spend this year investing around the QB position.  OL largely.  An additional weapon or 2.   

Then make a move at QB the next year if Cam can't get right. 

That’s far too logical

id add get a decent backup. Something both Hurney and Rivera were told to do for a guy coming off shoulder surgery...they didn’t, again, and here we are 

a lot of these people talk, but if Tepper wants butts in seats and people like me to renew, best show something sane between now and end of March

[Woodie]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I like Herbert's physical tools, but he's tough to evaluate in that Oregon offense. Everything in the passing game is a single read or at most a half field read. A lot his stats are padded with dink and dunk passes with lots of YAC against subpar competition (he's #62 in the NCAA in average yards per completion). When they're facing tough competition, they're hellbent on running the ball and they do the same in crunch time when games are close.

The way they manage their offense is far from being a shining endorsement for their confidence in Herbert.

I am completely in agreement with you on Herbert.  However, I don't think the offense is as much a lack of trust in Herbert as it is them forcing him to play in a specific system.  And, to be fair, I don't think that offense did Herbert any favors.  Some places design an offense to fit around their talented QB, but, IMO, Oregon tried to fit him into theirs.

With that said, I don't have a good feeling about Herbert in the NFL.  If he gets in the right spot, he could have a chance, but I think there is a much greater chance he completely busts.

The problem is that he tends to shrink in big situations, and tends to rush things when the pressure is on (both literally and figuratively).  So, as a result, his accuracy goes to crap in the big moments.  When they need a play the most, he usually cannot be relied upon to make something happen. 

So, apparently he is also an extreme introvert.  He's so much so that even in meetings he sits by himself in a corner and doesn't say a word.  He lets his OL and skill players do most of his talking (this is probably especially true in production meetings with the media before games).  To be clear, this is not something that is created by announcers and reporters for talking points, it has been openly discussed by coaches, teammates, and even Herbert himself.  Everyone loves the guy, but he is shy as all get out.  And, again IMO, this is likely where his problems start.  I don't think he likes being in the position of everything riding on his shoulders and that influences his play in big moments.  It also leads me to worry that if we do take him, would he be one of those guys that retires early.  We need a sure thing, or at least as much of a sure thing as you get from a draft pick, so I would not touch him with a ten foot pole in the 1st.

[Snake]

I don't think he will be picked top 10 if he comes out. 

[Woodie]

Stepping back from the argument and back to Tua.

If the doctors feel he will get back to what he was and they don't think he'll have an arthritic condition, he'll likely get an early 1st grade from the evaluation committee...and likely be drafted no later than 5th or 6th.  If that is the case he'll almost certainly declare for the draft.

However, if there is any question about that hip not getting back to what it was, and him possibly not having the mobility he used to, then he'd likely be expected to have a significant drop...possibly even into the 2nd or 3rd, depending on how  high the level of concern is.  In that case, he will almost certainly go back to school.

So, my best guess is that if he is truly expected to have a complete recovery, he'll still be expected to go top ten, and will enter the draft.  Any projections later than that means that there is some concern, and he most likely will go back to school in hopes of showing the NFL next year that he is healthy and worthy of a top ten pick.  The difference in pay from a top ten pick to a late 1st or later pick is significant.

[kungfoodude]

25 minutes ago, BurnHurnBurn said:

Any other school and I would agree.  I dont care what he does.  I just want to see these kids stay and develop rather than coming out early and struggling to play against adults.  The league would be better for it.  Even if the risk is to lose a few rising stars.  They have insurance policies on body parts now.

Stay and develop what? More money for Alabama? Another title for Saban? Staying in school is just delaying your actual career, professional football. The only winner in that sort of move is college football and the football factory schools, certainly not the kid and certainly not the NFL. 

[LinvilleGorge]

4 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Stay and develop what? More money for Alabama? Another title for Saban? Staying in school is just delaying your actual career, professional football. The only winner in that sort of move is college football and the football factory schools, certainly not the kid and certainly not the NFL. 

This. What is he going to show at the college level that he hasn't already? His draft status is 100% tied to his medical evaluations.

[BurnHurnBurn]

3 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Stay and develop what? More money for Alabama? Another title for Saban? Staying in school is just delaying your actual career, professional football. The only winner in that sort of move is college football and the football factory schools, certainly not the kid and certainly not the NFL. 

Well the topic splinters from here including a lot of cognitive dissonance.  I'm a huge opponent of the NCAA money scheme.  The title would be for Tua, and the extra time would be to develop a more physically matured player.  Experience is never a bad thing.  And again I agree with your assessment of the current state of money athletics, that's just not my point.  He can come out now and maybe get the guaranteed deal?  Or bet on himself and play 1 more year at Bama then cash in big.

[kungfoodude]

12 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

This. What is he going to show at the college level that he hasn't already? His draft status is 100% tied to his medical evaluations.

Not to mention, and I say this about football players or basketball players, college will ALWAYS be there a professional athletic career will not. Couple that with the fact that a scholarship athlete always has he option to come back and have his education paid for by the school, even if he leaves.....why stay?

I love to see when people throw shade at guys like James Wiseman at Memphis for leaving early or potentially Cole Anthony at UNC for shutting it down for the year(if that happens). Why in the world would you fault a kid for taking a system that is designed to funnel money to athletic departments, coaches, the NCAA, etc and use it to their advantage? Are colleges loyal to the kids? I have spent enough time around AAU basketball to never fault a single kid for getting any advantage they have or working for their own interests. You can bet Nick Saban is going to do what is best for him. You can bet Dabo Swinney is. 

[CRA]

34 minutes ago, Woodie said:

I am completely in agreement with you on Herbert.  However, I don't think the offense is as much a lack of trust in Herbert as it is them forcing him to play in a specific system.  And, to be fair, I don't think that offense did Herbert any favors.  Some places design an offense to fit around their talented QB, but, IMO, Oregon tried to fit him into theirs.

With that said, I don't have a good feeling about Herbert in the NFL.  If he gets in the right spot, he could have a chance, but I think there is a much greater chance he completely busts.

The problem is that he tends to shrink in big situations, and tends to rush things when the pressure is on (both literally and figuratively).  So, as a result, his accuracy goes to crap in the big moments.  When they need a play the most, he usually cannot be relied upon to make something happen. 

So, apparently he is also an extreme introvert.  He's so much so that even in meetings he sits by himself in a corner and doesn't say a word.  He lets his OL and skill players do most of his talking (this is probably especially true in production meetings with the media before games).  To be clear, this is not something that is created by announcers and reporters for talking points, it has been openly discussed by coaches, teammates, and even Herbert himself.  Everyone loves the guy, but he is shy as all get out.  And, again IMO, this is likely where his problems start.  I don't think he likes being in the position of everything riding on his shoulders and that influences his play in big moments.  It also leads me to worry that if we do take him, would he be one of those guys that retires early.  We need a sure thing, or at least as much of a sure thing as you get from a draft pick, so I would not touch him with a ten foot pole in the 1st.

I was anti-Herbert to begin with...

this just makes me triple down on Herbert and puts him in basically the category I had Clausen in.  Guaranteed NFL bust 

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

Not to mention, and I say this about football players or basketball players, college will ALWAYS be there and professional athletic career will not. 

Absolutely. It always cracks me up when fans use the "stay and get a degree" excuse. Like you can't finish a degree later. Everyone in college would be dropping out immediately if a company came to them with a seven figure offer to leave college and come work for them. Without a second thought.

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, BurnHurnBurn said:

Well the topic splinters from here including a lot of cognitive dissonance.  I'm a huge opponent of the NCAA money scheme.  The title would be for Tua, and the extra time would be to develop a more physically matured player.  Experience is never a bad thing.  And again I agree with your assessment of the current state of money athletics, that's just not my point.  He can come out now and maybe get the guaranteed deal?  Or bet on himself and play 1 more year at Bama then cash in big.

But what real benefit does that title offer Tua other than for his personal competitiveness(nothing at all wrong with that, BTW)? As far as more time to physically mature.....you mean dedicating 100% of your time to that like you would be able to do in the NFL versus the part-time that you would be doing that in the NCAA? 

Tua has an injury history and his stock is still high(for now, pending medicals). Why in the world would you gamble on that potentially changing with an injury or perhaps not being a top 3 QB prospect anymore(which could easily happen in next year's class)? It just doesn't make sense to take that risk. Those insurance policies will not pay what one rookie contract will.

[Varking]

11 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

But what real benefit does that title offer Tua other than for his personal competitiveness(nothing at all wrong with that, BTW)? As far as more time to physically mature.....you mean dedicating 100% of your time to that like you would be able to do in the NFL versus the part-time that you would be doing that in the NCAA? 

Tua has an injury history and his stock is still high(for now, pending medicals). Why in the world would you gamble on that potentially changing with an injury or perhaps not being a top 3 QB prospect anymore(which could easily happen in next year's class)? It just doesn't make sense to take that risk. Those insurance policies will not pay what one rookie contract will.

It should come down to when you get the medicals. When do we find out how far along Tua is? If it is around the combine or during that time I could see it not bothering anyone. If we won't get an update on his health until or after the draft I think he would need to return to school. How many are going to want to take a first round risk on him if we aren't sure he is going to be good again. 

[raz]

if his recovery is going to take his first year in the nfl away he may just rehab at alabama w/out playing.  they do have great facilities and great structure.  he comes from a very close family.   they may want that over him sitting out his first year.   even if he doesn't play a down at alabama he'll still be a top 10 pick if he gets a clean bill of health

[broncoitis]

Beef up the OL and DT positions then draft Howell from UNC when he comes out his junior year