The Athletic reports that Marty Hurney will stay on as GM, and is negotiating contracts for Bradberry and Boston

[Ricky Spanish]

11 minutes ago, bobowilson said:

What you're not understanding is that Michael Thomas is a 1 in a 1000 circumstance, which is why the trade value chart reflects the values of that individual picks.

For every Michael Thomas, there's 999 guys who are either mediocre or won't even make your roster.

If the math is too abstract, ask yourself how many fringe rotation guys you might pick in the mid rounds you would need to accept for a trade for a prime Luke.   10, 15, 20?   Would you have traded a prime Luke for 5 fringe 4th round guys?

Fringe rotation guys aren't that valuable because they're not 'above replacement level', and you can sign guys like that in free agency for veteran minimum contracts.  The main use of the draft is to lock up high end talent on cheap rookie deals, and these type of guys are inordinately found in the 1st round (for all general managers, not just Hurney).

Your numbers are completely off. There are plenty of High caliber players available in the second round every single year that get drafted. Hell there are plenty of backup level players that are available in the second or third round. You're acting like it's impossible to draft a decent player in any other round when it's not hard for literally every other team in the NFL

And those depth guys do matter. It's why our rosters under Hurney are always so top heavy. As soon as a starter goes down, we are screwed. You need depth of some kind to build a reliable team year in and out. And that's the problem with Hurney. Dude can't even find a guy that is even worthy of being a damn backup in any other round. It is completely feast or famine. Ideally, you want 2 starters and 1 depth guy from every draft. Doesn't matter what round you find them in, but adding 3 guys that can at least contribute to the team in some fashion every year will keep you competitive. Hurney only Adds 1 stud per year, then completely wastes the rest of the draft depleting the roster of young talent to groom and then requiring him to go out and sign vets to plug spots (at a higher price than rookies might I add) that should have already been addressed in the draft (see Boston this year). 

Adding one great player per year does not make your team good when multiple contracts of varying skill level and contributions expire every single year. It just creates a void of talent throughout the entirety of the roster. 

[rayzor]

[Ivan The Awesome]

Ah for fugs sake man...fug this, I'm going to drink some alcohol. 

[bobowilson]

4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I'm sure Tepper would've had infinite patience with one of his hedge fund managers who made mistake after mistake while doing nothing but lose money. One of the best investment evaluators there is.

I think if Tepper hired a derivatives trader, who invested in a dozen commodities that were the highest performing assets of the decade (that happened to only have parabolic trajectories after this trader was fired), he would have realized this trader should be given the lion's share of credit for this growth even if another guy had taken his desk for a few years.

Likewise, I assume Tepper agrees with the assessment that the 2015 Panthers, in which all the 'high performing commodities' were made by investments by a guy who was doing radio at the time, should be counted as a 'success'.

I think the disconnect is that Tepper credits Hurney for the 2015 Panthers (or, even you know, the 6-2 Panthers last year before Cam got hurt), and your average Panthers fan somehow has fooled themselves into believing Gettleman acquired all those superstars.

Drafting Cam Newton was like investing in Netflix in 2009.

 

 

[rayzor]

We should just change our name to the Carolina Hurnerators.

Dude is like a cockroach. He'll always be here. 

[bobowilson]

3 minutes ago, Cracka McNasty said:

 

And those depth guys do matter. It's why our rosters under Hurney are always so top heavy. As soon as a starter goes down, we are screwed. You need depth of some kind to build a reliable team year in and out.

They don't matter in the draft nearly as much as you think.

Because you can easily sign these kind of guys in free agency for veteran minimum deals that are only mildly more expensive than the rookie scale contracts they would have received if you drafted them yourself.

Whereas, you can have a superstar you drafted playing for a couple of million (whereas signing them in the open market might cost you 17-35 million dollars assuming they ever become available in the first place).

Sure it matters to draft good depth guys, but it's not 10% as important as drafting superstars.

[bobowilson]

If the Ravens win the Superbowl this year, who should get most of the credit

Ozzie Newsome (who drafted all of their 12 Pro Bowlers), or Eric Decosta who inherited this stacked team?

If you realized that Tepper believed that Hurney was 80-90% responsible for 2013, 2015, and 2017 Panthers, you might be less confused as to why such a brilliant man is keeping him around (instead of coming up with silly theories like, "Hurney must be great at selling himself and Tepper is suffering from dementia").

Consider the possibility that you might be wrong about your assumption that the 2015 Panthers were successful because Gettleman added all of these great depth guys.   Challenge your mind to alternative narratives.

 

[Ricky Spanish]

2 minutes ago, bobowilson said:

I think if Tepper hired a derivatives trader, who invested in a dozen commodities that were the highest performing assets of the decade (that happened to only have parabolic trajectories after this trader was fired), he would have realized this trader should be given the lion's share of credit for this growth even if another guy had taken his desk for a few years.

Likewise, I assume Tepper agrees with the assessment that the 2015 Panthers, in which all the 'high performing commodities' were made by investments by a guy who was doing radio at the time, should be counted as a 'success'.

I think the disconnect is that Tepper credits Hurney for the 2015 Panthers (or, even you know, the 6-2 Panthers last year before Cam got hurt), and your average Panthers fan somehow has fooled themselves into believing Gettleman acquired all those superstars.

Drafting Cam Newton was like investing in Netflix in 2009.

 

 

Whoa now, Credit where it's due, do you not attribute credit to Gettleman for identifying and KEEPING the good players around? Because part of being a good GM is assessing player value comparative to the team and determining if they should be extended or not. That and just because they didn't make the pro bowl (A complete popularity contest that holds no value on how good a player truly is) didn't mean they didn't contribute significantly to the team. 

List of players Gettleman extended and kept around after cleaning up the terrible contracts of Williams, Beason, Anderson, Godfrey, etc. etc.:

Gettleman Extended Cam that year

Gettleman Extended Luke that year

Gettleman Extended Greg Olsen that year

Gettleman Extended Thomas Davis that year

List of Key contributors to the team that Gettleman added:

Gettleman signed Coleman, team leader in INTs that year

Gettleman drafted Short, Star, Turner, and Boston

Gettleman signed Ginn, Oher, and Peanut Tillman in the offseason

Gettleman signed Andrew Norwell and Philly Brown as UDFAs

Just because he didn't draft all the guys didn't mean he didn't put the team together.

 

[Ricky Spanish]

10 minutes ago, bobowilson said:

They don't matter in the draft nearly as much as you think.

Because you can easily sign these kind of guys in free agency for veteran minimum deals that are only mildly more expensive than the rookie scale contracts they would have received if you drafted them yourself.

Whereas, you can have a superstar you drafted playing for a couple of million (whereas signing them in the open market might cost you 17-35 million dollars assuming they ever become available in the first place).

Sure it matters to draft good depth guys, but it's not 10% as important as drafting superstars.

Then why doesn't he draft superstars in literally any other round of the draft where their cheap contracts allow you to add more talent due to their low cost when every other GM of actual good teams seem capable of doing it at a higher consistency than Hurney?

[carpanfan96]

22 minutes ago, Cracka McNasty said:

Your numbers are completely off. There are plenty of High caliber players available in the second round every single year that get drafted. Hell there are plenty of backup level players that are available in the second or third round. You're acting like it's impossible to draft a decent player in any other round when it's not hard for literally every other team in the NFL

And those depth guys do matter. It's why our rosters under Hurney are always so top heavy. As soon as a starter goes down, we are screwed. You need depth of some kind to build a reliable team year in and out. And that's the problem with Hurney. Dude can't even find a guy that is even worthy of being a damn backup in any other round. It is completely feast or famine. Ideally, you want 2 starters and 1 depth guy from every draft. Doesn't matter what round you find them in, but adding 3 guys that can at least contribute to the team in some fashion every year will keep you competitive. Hurney only Adds 1 stud per year, then completely wastes the rest of the draft depleting the roster of young talent to groom and then requiring him to go out and sign vets to plug spots (at a higher price than rookies might I add) that should have already been addressed in the draft (see Boston this year). 

Adding one great player per year does not make your team good when multiple contracts of varying skill level and contributions expire every single year. It just creates a void of talent throughout the entirety of the roster. 

Average hit rate in 2nd round is like 30% for a starter, 3rd round is 20%-14% depending on where in the round. So basically 1/3 of second round picks are busts and 1/5 of third round picks are busts. 1/2 of first round picks are busts. Meaning not a multi year starter for the team that drafted them. Most teams drafts net 1 impact starter, maybe 1 borderline starter and a bunch of jag guys or st players. 

 

Those are the nfl averages over the last 15-20 years. 

[Ricky Spanish]

15 minutes ago, bobowilson said:

They don't matter in the draft nearly as much as you think.

Because you can easily sign these kind of guys in free agency for veteran minimum deals that are only mildly more expensive than the rookie scale contracts they would have received if you drafted them yourself.

Whereas, you can have a superstar you drafted playing for a couple of million (whereas signing them in the open market might cost you 17-35 million dollars assuming they ever become available in the first place).

Sure it matters to draft good depth guys, but it's not 10% as important as drafting superstars.

Thank you for ignoring the meat and potatoes part of my argument about other GMS and teams being able to find at least backup level talent in any other round where Hurney fails to do even that. 

[LinvilleGorge]

I feel like some of this fan base has Stockholm Syndrome and they're just trying to convince themselves that Hurney is competent. No really, somehow someway this man who has subjected all of us to so much bad football is perfectly competent. Nevermind the fact that he hasn't assembled a winning NFL roster in 11 years. No big deal. He's been making a lot of great decisions, he's just not catching a break here and there.

Good grief.

[Ricky Spanish]

1 minute ago, carpanfan96 said:

Average hit rate in 2nd round is like 30% for a starter, 3rd round is 20%-14% depending on where in the round. So basically 1/3 of second round picks are busts and 1/5 of third round picks are busts. 1/2 of first round picks are busts. Meaning not a multi year starter for the team that drafted them. Most teams drafts net 1 impact starter, maybe 1 borderline starter and a bunch of jag guys or st players. 

 

Those are the nfl averages over the last 15-20 years. 

So Hurney is below Average with his hit rate of 1 Impact starter and everyone else being out of the league within 5 years then?

[Ja Rhule]

If Marty Hurney stays as GM, I will ask for refund on my MLS season tickets deposit.