A Solution to the QB Dilemma

[davos]

3 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

It's not really wasting money on a one year deal. That's what we are talking about, a gap filler for one year as we are doing a final evaluation of Cam Newton. Mullens and Sudfield are not better substantially better than Allen, who proved that he cannot sustain winning for long stretches. Rivers and Dalton can absolutely win games and have for a long time period. Mariota is a talent gamble, just like Winston. 

Bridgewater would be ideal but I am of the opinion that he will get a multi-year deal from someone or he will stick with New Orleans in the hopes of being the heir apparent. 

The stop-gaps come into play if we really are dealing away CJN1 which I don't necessarily think is the case but I will accept could still for whatever reason happen.

If he stays, what I'm getting at is that we might as well take a shot in the dark at a future guy to sit for a year with Allen as the 2 (Which is why I'd like to consider the high upsiders like Love or Newman).  Or yes, get another young gun that had an Allen moment in recent years and see who's best of them.  We should officially be in franchise QB search mode even if Cam is coming back fine.  He has probably 3-5 years left but you never know.   

[Snake]

Carolina doesn't have a QB problem we have a Oline problem. And a Dline problem as well. Come up with ways to fix that. 

[LinvilleGorge]

A solution to the QB dilemma... Andy Dalton.

 

[45catfan]

13 minutes ago, stbugs said:

If your plan is to draft a QB in round 1, then you start Grier all next year and you don’t play around with Dalton and you jettison Cam for picks. It’s either build around Cam or go for Lawrence/Fields. I don’t want in between, it’s useless. You need a franchise QB and I think Lawrence absolutely is one so either tank hard for him or stick with Cam. Dalton gets you 6-10 or 7-9 and pick 12 and another team like Cincy with Burrow that has no intention of trading at all.

And if Lawrence pulls an Andrew Luck?  I'm not feeling the Cleveland Browns strategy on that one.

[Sgt Schultz]

20 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

His INT percentages haven't been much different than other typical gun slinger QB's like Rivers or Favre. The big spike this year had a lot to do with being in that Bruce Arians kind of offense. It puts him in situations where he is making poorer decisions a lot more easily. He is absolutely the most talented QB in that group and it's not even close. He is as capable of marching offenses up and down the field as he is throwing crippling INT's. As I said, he's part of that young QB reclamation project group which warrant a look at the right price/right situation. 

Ask yourself this, would you rather have Winston step in to attempt to win a game for us, or Kyle Allen/Will Grier?

I made fun of him in another thread over the interceptions, but you are right.  His picks go up as his other (positive) numbers go up.  I don't think he would be a bad gamble for somebody.  Improving his decision making is the task at hand, which is a decision for the new coaching staff to make.

The  OP keeps sidestepping is the cap hit discussion.  Trading for Dalton would give us nearly $40M in cap hit tied to two QBs, one on the 17th or 18th hole of his career and the other whose health is in question.  Worse, neither is under contract the next year, which relieves the dead space issue, but implies you are all-in for a 2020 run but at the same time limits what you can improve elsewhere to make such a run.  Does anybody realistically think this team is just a QB away from competing for a Superb Owl in 2020?  I don't.  We have too many other glaring issues.

My big knock on Hurney this year is that he did not sign a veteran QB to backup Cam, knowing there were questions about Cam's health or capability to hold up all season.  The OP is not wrong in that having a former starter as a backup is important if you are going to potentially rely on your backup to start 4 or more games.  It is prudent to have a guy in that role who knows how to start upwards of 16 games in a season.  But, when you have a porous OL and a defense in disarray, tying up $40M in cap space in two QBs on the wrong side of 30 only hampers your rebuilding efforts elsewhere.  Because of that, the veteran QB list starts to get interesting at Winston and Mariota. 

The Bridgewater number is an illusion because I think it will jump into the range we are trying to avoid.  I don't think you will see him in a Panthers or Saints uniform unless he absolutely wants to be Brees' eventual replacement.  Speaking of numbers that are an illusion: Dak Prescott.

If Mariota was willing to come in as a "prove-it" backup at a "prove-it" price, he may be worth the gamble (he may be quick enough to not get killed while we rebuild the OL), as he is 26.  But, if you are looking for an experienced, former starter, it needs to be somebody on the cheap end.  They are going to be expendable, and having them get in the way of rebuilding elsewhere does not make a lot of sense.

 

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Tepper absolutely will have to factor in the fan base when deciding on Cam.  Is the ultimate factor?  of course not, but he knows Cam has been the face of this franchise and casting him off like last week's left overs will sour a large amount of the fan base.  That part of the business he has to consider too.  Prospects of empty seats to start the season is not a great proposition.

Lastly, Cam is not 2015 Cam anymore, not even close.  I think competition will do him some good even if it's a token challenge to his starting role next season assuming he's still here.  At any rate, to give him a run for the starter's role, it can't be some random JAG FA journeyman.  If he loses (an upset) well we know he has lost "it" and if not (most likely) we have a VERY solid #2 in case he gets hit with the injury bug again.

 If the team does part ways him, obviously they didn't feel Cam 2015 was going to suddenly re-emerge. I also think if he is retained to play one more season, the idea that the team was even pondering moving on from him says he should be the unquestioned #1 is a bit ironic.

Fans care about winning, Tepper is on record about wanting to build a long term winner. Any fan that leaves over Cam leaving/getting cut was not a fan and is easily replaceable by the 40 bandwagon fans that will emerge once the Panthers start winning. Empty seats are a problem but that happens when you lose and it's correctable. So, no, I don't think it will weigh that heavily in the process because it's football results that people really care about. 

No he isn't 2015 Cam because he hasn't been healthy. The question of his health will largely remain until he is healthy again, if he ever is. I don't think he has lost "it." No one around the franchise has ever made any statement to that effect. Any and all doubts that have been cast on Cam are in regards to his health. 

If we part ways with him it's probably because of a few possible reasons:

- The direction of the franchise under new leadership(coaches, front office, etc)

- The doubt that he can remain healthy long term.

- The $19.1 mil in cap space that can be generated by cutting him. 

But, if he returns to this franchise, I don't think there is any shadow of a doubt that healthy Cam would be a starter over any of the free agent QB's on that list. None of them are anywhere near the level of player he is/was/etc. Very few even possess the level of talent he has. Could we get someone in the draft that makes that a question? Possibly. We will just have to see. 

[kungfoodude]

11 minutes ago, davos said:

The stop-gaps come into play if we really are dealing away CJN1 which I don't necessarily think is the case but I will accept could still for whatever reason happen.

If he stays, what I'm getting at is that we might as well take a shot in the dark at a future guy to sit for a year with Allen as the 2 (Which is why I'd like to consider the high upsiders like Love or Newman).  Or yes, get another young gun that had an Allen moment in recent years and see who's best of them.  We should officially be in franchise QB search mode even if Cam is coming back fine.  He has probably 3-5 years left but you never know.   

I tend to disagree. The stop gap idea isn't as attractive without Cam, IMO. I meant it as injury insurance, not as a plan for the future because using one year fillers is not a good long term strategy. Plus if you are stuck in the middle of the pack range with journeyman QB's, that robs you of the best draft positioning to obtain a potential franchise QB. 

The problem with constantly gambling on lower tier/lower round QB's is that historically it has a very low probability of success. The reality is that first round QB's are the best bet at getting a new franchise QB's and even at that rate the success rate is low compared to most other positions. 

Make no mistake, drafting QB's will probably result in a lot of misses before we get a hit. Remember how many QB's we drafted before we got Cam. 

[45catfan]

5 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

I made fun of him in another thread over the interceptions, but you are right.  His picks go up as his other (positive) numbers go up.  I don't think he would be a bad gamble for somebody.  Improving his decision making is the task at hand, which is a decision for the new coaching staff to make.

The  OP keeps sidestepping is the cap hit discussion.  Trading for Dalton would give us nearly $40M in cap hit tied to two QBs, one on the 17th or 18th hole of his career and the other whose health is in question.  Worse, neither is under contract the next year, which relieves the dead space issue, but implies you are all-in for a 2020 run but at the same time limits what you can improve elsewhere to make such a run.  Does anybody realistically think this team is just a QB away from competing for a Superb Owl in 2020?  I don't.  We have too many other glaring issues.

My big knock on Hurney this year is that he did not sign a veteran QB to backup Cam, knowing there were questions about Cam's health or capability to hold up all season.  The OP is not wrong in that having a former starter as a backup is important if you are going to potentially rely on your backup to start 4 or more games.  It is prudent to have a guy in that role who knows how to start upwards of 16 games in a season.  But, when you have a porous OL and a defense in disarray, tying up $40M in cap space in two QBs on the wrong side of 30 only hampers your rebuilding efforts elsewhere.  Because of that, the veteran QB list starts to get interesting at Winston and Mariota. 

The Bridgewater number is an illusion because I think it will jump into the range we are trying to avoid.  I don't think you will see him in a Panthers or Saints uniform unless he absolutely wants to be Brees' eventual replacement.  Speaking of numbers that are an illusion: Dak Prescott.

If Mariota was willing to come in as a "prove-it" backup at a "prove-it" price, he may be worth the gamble (he may be quick enough to not get killed while we rebuild the OL), as he is 26.  But, if you are looking for an experienced, former starter, it needs to be somebody on the cheap end.  They are going to be expendable, and having them get in the way of rebuilding elsewhere does not make a lot of sense.

 

Once traded, could renegotiate a 2-year deal for backup money with the carrot of winning the #1 role.  It's not that hard.  There could be several possibilities.  Also, I think people realize 2021 is probably the year for drafting a QB.  We need a bridge longer than one year.  We have to find which bridge is the better fit moving forward.

[davos]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

I tend to disagree. The stop gap idea isn't as attractive without Cam, IMO. I meant it as injury insurance, not as a plan for the future because using one year fillers is not a good long term strategy. Plus if you are stuck in the middle of the pack range with journeyman QB's, that robs you of the best draft positioning to obtain a potential franchise QB. 

The problem with constantly gambling on lower tier/lower round QB's is that historically it has a very low probability of success. The reality is that first round QB's are the best bet at getting a new franchise QB's and even at that rate the success rate is low compared to most other positions. 

Make no mistake, drafting QB's will probably result in a lot of misses before we get a hit. Remember how many QB's we drafted before we got Cam. 

Recent years has me thinking otherwise with Dak, Wilson, Jimmy G, etc. but I get your point.  I just think we have insurance in place in Allen that gives us the opportunity to start rolling the dice on the high upside projects.  It may not be playoff leading insurance but these older vets may want to start somewhere and I just don't see a Dalton or Rivers wanting to come in and sit behind Newton.  Bridgewater is going to be given a starting opportunity. 

[kungfoodude]

13 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

And if Lawrence pulls an Andrew Luck?  I'm not feeling the Cleveland Browns strategy on that one.

I don't think that is a likely scenario. It's highly unusual for that to happen and there has been no indication that was even in the cards. 

10 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

I made fun of him in another thread over the interceptions, but you are right.  His picks go up as his other (positive) numbers go up.  I don't think he would be a bad gamble for somebody.  Improving his decision making is the task at hand, which is a decision for the new coaching staff to make.

The  OP keeps sidestepping is the cap hit discussion.  Trading for Dalton would give us nearly $40M in cap hit tied to two QBs, one on the 17th or 18th hole of his career and the other whose health is in question.  Worse, neither is under contract the next year, which relieves the dead space issue, but implies you are all-in for a 2020 run but at the same time limits what you can improve elsewhere to make such a run.  Does anybody realistically think this team is just a QB away from competing for a Superb Owl in 2020?  I don't.  We have too many other glaring issues.

My big knock on Hurney this year is that he did not sign a veteran QB to backup Cam, knowing there were questions about Cam's health or capability to hold up all season.  The OP is not wrong in that having a former starter as a backup is important if you are going to potentially rely on your backup to start 4 or more games.  It is prudent to have a guy in that role who knows how to start upwards of 16 games in a season.  But, when you have a porous OL and a defense in disarray, tying up $40M in cap space in two QBs on the wrong side of 30 only hampers your rebuilding efforts elsewhere.  Because of that, the veteran QB list starts to get interesting at Winston and Mariota. 

The Bridgewater number is an illusion because I think it will jump into the range we are trying to avoid.  I don't think you will see him in a Panthers or Saints uniform unless he absolutely wants to be Brees' eventual replacement.  Speaking of numbers that are an illusion: Dak Prescott.

If Mariota was willing to come in as a "prove-it" backup at a "prove-it" price, he may be worth the gamble (he may be quick enough to not get killed while we rebuild the OL), as he is 26.  But, if you are looking for an experienced, former starter, it needs to be somebody on the cheap end.  They are going to be expendable, and having them get in the way of rebuilding elsewhere does not make a lot of sense.

 

Agree with basically all of this. And the level of needs that we are likely to have as a team are likely to increase pretty dramatically because we have a LOAD of starters that are free agents and very little cap space comparatively(another Hurney special). Honestly, no matter what we do this offseason, it could be a very, very challenging year in 2020. 

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Once traded, could renegotiate a 2-year deal for backup money with the carrot of winning the #1 role.  It's not that hard.  There could be several possibilities.  Also, I think people realize 2021 is probably the year for drafting a QB.  We need a bridge longer than one year.  We have to find which bridge is the better fit moving forward.

Yeah but why even give up draft capital when we can just wait for him to be cut? That's just such a bad move. And it isn't like Dalton is leaps and bounds better than these other options. 

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, davos said:

Recent years has me thinking otherwise with Dak, Wilson, Jimmy G, etc. but I get your point.  I just think we have insurance in place in Allen that gives us the opportunity to start rolling the dice on the high upside projects.  It may not be playoff leading insurance but these older vets may want to start somewhere and I just don't see a Dalton or Rivers wanting to come in and sit behind Newton.  Bridgewater is going to be given a starting opportunity. 

I think in a few years Jimmy G is going to be another Andy Dalton journeyman QB that got overpaid. Dak is tettering on that ledge too. Wilson is a star but for every Wilson and Tom Brady there are 40 busted 2nd to 7th round drafted QB's. 

I also don't share the same rosy view of Allen as you do. I think he will settle at the low end of the journeyman QB scale(where he basically grades out performance wise) so I suspect he won't be a Panther in a couple of years. 

I do agree about the older guys wanting to start but to some extent their options are going to be limited by the market. The options for QB needy teams that are in "win now" mode are going to be limited and guys like Dalton and Rivers aren't going to be as high on them, I suspect. Then you have shitty spots like us that have upside(Cam's health) that can still pay and perhaps give a platform to show that you have some left in the tank. Of the bottom feeders messes, Carolina is one of the better options. 

[45catfan]

9 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah but why even give up draft capital when we can just wait for him to be cut? That's just such a bad move. And it isn't like Dalton is leaps and bounds better than these other options. 

I've already said I cool if he gets cut, obviously.  It's a matter of how Cincy plays their hand.  If they are comfortable with Finley as QB#2 and want to give Dalton the Rivera treatment by cutting ties early, then I'm all for it.  I just think they will try to get something for him first.  Any team interested will have to just wait.  How long, who knows?

[Sgt Schultz]

18 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Once traded, could renegotiate a 2-year deal for backup money with the carrot of winning the #1 role.  It's not that hard.  There could be several possibilities.  Also, I think people realize 2021 is probably the year for drafting a QB.  We need a bridge longer than one year.  We have to find which bridge is the better fit moving forward.

That only works if the QB is willing to do so.  Why, if you are Andy Dalton, would you do that?  Someone will come calling if the Bengals cut him.  Look at the Broncos, perhaps the Redskins, and several others who have questions about the starting QB and are notorious for pulling the trigger and throwing money in desperation at snake-oil solutions to the #1 spot on the depth chart.  Would you really sign for less to be behind a franchise icon, who, if healthy, you will always be behind when you could take your chances as a starter elsewhere.....without shining the icon's shoes?

Dalton is at a point where three things are likely to sway his decision: money, the chance to start, and maybe the chance at wearing a ring.  We aren't going to want to throw the money at him, if he is starting it is only until we find the next franchise QB (which could be six weeks or six years), and we aren't going to give him a chance at a ring next year, nor likely in 2021. 

Again, we are NOT just a QB away from winning.  As KungFuDude pointed out, not only do we have glaring weaknesses, but a good number of our solutions are becoming FAs and need to be either resigned or replaced.

5-11 was a pretty true indicator of this team.  Cam might have improved that somehow by a couple of games, at best.  But an awful defense and an awful OL is not the basis for stealing wins.  Teams most capable of snaring wins from the loss column do so because they are very solid at fundamentals (like blocking and tackling) and it holds them in games until they can do something to steal a win.  We didn't do the fundamentals very well this year.  We were good at watching people with the ball off in the distance, or watching DLs and LBs run by as they chased CMC or our QB.