A realistic look at where Carolina will be drafting

[bmoshx]

Have seen some optimism regarding draft position, which at this point is the only thing to look forward too.  So with 3 games remaining here are the teams that are picking before Carolina and their final matchups (Cinn and NYG excluded as Carolina cannot pass them).  Currently, the Panthers are picking 12th.

Wash: 3-10 (vs Phi, @NYG, @ Dal) - maybe 1 win
Miami: 3-10 ( @NYG, vs Cinn, @NE) - 1 or 2 wins possible
Det: 3-9-1 (vs TB, @Den, vs GB) - probably all losses
Ari: 3-9-1 (vs Cle, @Sea, @LAR) - maybe 1 win
Jax: 4-9 (@Oak, @ATL, vs Ind) - 1 or 2 wins possible
Atl: 4-9 (@SF, vs Jax, @TB) - 1 or 2 wins possible
NYJ: 5-8 (@Balt, vs Pitt, @Buf) - probably all losses
LAC: 5-8 (vs Minn, vs Oak, @KC) - maybe 1 win
Den: 5-8 (@KC, vs Det, vs Oak) - 1 or 2 wins possible
Car: 5-8 (vs Sea, @Ind, vs NO) - assuming losing out

Starting with the other 5-8 teams, assuming the Panthers lose out, they should jump Denver at some point as Denver should beat Detroit which would in turn eliminate Carolina from passing Detroit.  You hope that the Chargers can beat Oakland which would push Carolina ahead of them to get to the 10 spot.  The Jets should lose out so it won't be possible to pass them.  Atlanta and Jax play each other, the best case scenario would be for Atlanta to win as they have a better SOS but doing that would most likely make it hard to pass Jax unless they beat Oak and Ind.  That would get Carolina to the 9th spot if Atlanta can manage the win against Jax.  If they lose to Jax, then Carolina will likely stay in the 10th spot.  Arizona and Detroit are not winning 2 of the last 3.  Miami and Washington are almost impossible to jump unless either one of them win out.  It's looking likely the Panthers will get the 10th pick with it being a long shot to get past the 9th pick.  Now if Carolina ends up winning a game, that could really screw the draft pick and have them drafting in the mid teens depending on how the rest of the season plays out.

Carolina cant even win for losing.

[Mr. Scot]

If it comes down to the last game and the Saints don't need to play their starters, this board is going to go apesh-t.

[bmoshx]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

If it comes down to the last game and the Saints don't need to play their starters, this board is going to go apesh-t.

Having SF win and GB win is huge.  SF is essentially 2 games ahead of NO right now as they own the head to head tie breaker.  Its going to come down to Green Bay and NO for the #2 seed, so we really need GB to keep winning to put pressure on NO to keep playing their starters.

[AggieLean]

We’re gonna mess around and either beat the Saints or Colts. 

[cmichd]

1 minute ago, AggieLean said:

We’re gonna mess around and either beat the Saints or Colts. 

if there is a win it will Indy.  

[LinvilleGorge]

I think our ceiling is probably #7.

[Untouchable]

Best guess is we pick 9th.  Broncos, Chargers and Falcons all jump us.

[cmichd]

7 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Best guess is we pick 9th.  Broncos, Chargers and Falcons all jump us.

If we get to 9th i would be happy.  

[AggieLean]

2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I think it’s 8. Jacksonville has a lower SOS and they aren’t winning more than one. Have you seen how badly Jacksonville is playing lately? They are attempting to tank enough to jump into the top 5. I don’t see any way Jacksonville wins 2 and if they do it likely means they beat Atlanta lessening our chance that we pass them.

We are also not jumping any of the 3 or fewer loss teams. I think we’ll jump Atlanta, Denver and LAC and get into the 9th spot depending on the Jets. We might get a little unlucky and get 10th but I think 9th is where we will be as I think the Jets lose out as well and they get 8.

If we win a game, all bets are off. We could go from 12th to 16th or so depending on the 6 (assuming Philly wins tonight) teams with 6 wins. It’s within the realm of possibilities that we could pick 18th and be 6-10. It’s not likely, we’d probably only drop a couple.

We just need to lose out and hope we get a top 10 pick.

This would be a disaster, and high key what I expect to happen. We’re going to beat the Colts