"Marty Hurney is one of the best recognizers of college talent in the nation. Period." A deeper dive

[RumHam]

7 hours ago, bobowilson said:

Ignorant

In the mid to late rounds

Marty Hurney acquired 2 Hall of Famers (Steve Smith, Olsen), 5 Pro Bowlers (Jenkins, Norman, Hardy, Kalil, Mathis), and another guy that was a borderline pro bowler in Charles Johnson

if anyone else had that record, I can't imagine their irrational fan base would be crying about he's terrible outside the 1st round;  you can keep repeating the names of Clausen, Edwards, Gaulden, but it doesn't change the fact his bust rate in the mid rounds is no higher than any other general manager

And in recent years, Dennis Daley, Donte Jackson, Ian Thomas, Christian Miller, and Haynes look very promising

He's one of the 3 best drafters in the entire NFL, and not only in the 1st round

The names speak for themselves

Dude who are you? You're very wrong on everything. Olsen was drafted by the bears. Are you nine or trolling?

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, RumHam said:

Dude who are you? You're very wrong on everything. Olsen was drafted by the bears. Are you nine or trolling?

That is Marty's alt. 

[Car123]

7 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Marty ran the logistics of the draft. He was not in any way affiliated with the scouting department at that time. He was a cap specialist.

And he sure as hell didn't have final say on draft picks. That was George Seifert.

Source?

[klumme]

7 hours ago, bobowilson said:

Ignorant

In the mid to late rounds

Marty Hurney acquired 2 Hall of Famers (Steve Smith, Olsen), 5 Pro Bowlers (Jenkins, Norman, Hardy, Kalil, Mathis), and another guy that was a borderline pro bowler in Charles Johnson

if anyone else had that record, I can't imagine their irrational fan base would be crying about he's terrible outside the 1st round;  you can keep repeating the names of Clausen, Edwards, Gaulden, but it doesn't change the fact his bust rate in the mid rounds is no higher than any other general manager

And in recent years, Dennis Daley, Donte Jackson, Ian Thomas, Christian Miller, and Haynes look very promising

He's one of the 3 best drafters in the entire NFL, and not only in the 1st round

The names speak for themselves

John Schneider 
Ozzie Newsome
Mickey Loomis
Jerry Jones

Rick Smith

Kevin Colbert 
Bill Belichick

Ted Thompson

Rick Spielman

Mike Brown

They all have more or the same numbers of pro bowlers. What they also have is a better winning procent than our radio guy GM.

[rayzor]

Quote

 

1 hour ago, Car123 said:

Source?

It was pretty well known back in the day about Marty's role as being the cap guy.

As far as who can take credit for the 2001 draft....

Quote

Although head coach George Seifert still had the final say in all personnel matters, virtually all of the planning and execution for the 2001 draft was done by director of football operations Marty Hurney and director of player personnel Jack Bushofsky.

"It was a good draft. And actually Jack Bushofsky was in charge of that draft. I love Jack, and I can talk about it - but that really was Jack's draft," said Hurney, who now is part-owner of a radio station in Charlotte and also hosts a sports talk show on it.

https://www.panthers.com/news/2001-draft-yields-bumper-crop-15078585

 

Quote

When Beathard left for the San Diego Chargers in 1990, Hurney went with him as an assistant general manager. He joined the Panthers in 1998 as a cap specialist and contract negotiator, and was elevated to general manager when coach George Seifert was fired following the 2001 season.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/fl-xpm-2004-01-31-0401310071-story.html

[panthers55]

5 hours ago, My Goodness My Guinness said:

People downplay just how much Star and Short (and the addition of Dwan Edwards) improved our defense. We had been without strong DTs for years and our defense was terrible because of it, kinda like we are now.

Gettleman's focus was the "hogmollies" which reflected the win through the trenches mentality. Though I wish he focused on finding a damn LT. 

The one we had he pushed to retirement unwilling to negotiate a fair salary with Gross.

[Car123]

11 minutes ago, rayzor said:

It was pretty well known back in the day about Marty's role as being the cap guy.

As far as who can take credit for the 2001 draft....

https://www.panthers.com/news/2001-draft-yields-bumper-crop-15078585

 

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/fl-xpm-2004-01-31-0401310071-story.html

Hurney is being humble. Similar to a quarterback giving credit to the offensive line.

Why would Smith give him major credit if he wasn't involved. Are you implying that Smith is an idiot?

[My Goodness My Guinness]

31 minutes ago, Car123 said:

Hurney is being humble. Similar to a quarterback giving credit to the offensive line.

Why would Smith give him major credit if he wasn't involved. Are you implying that Smith is an idiot?

Wow what air did you pull that out of?

[Car123]

1 minute ago, My Goodness My Guinness said:

Wow what air did you pull that out of?

It insists upon itself.

[panthers55]

A funny twist to this may be whether or not Hurney still wants to be the GM or he wants to carve out a job that lets him do what he really wants to do. At 63 you realize that you aren't going to be working forever and grow tired of many of the day to day responsibilities that you never really enjoyed. While most can't carve out a job doing exactly what you want to do, what if you could do just that. What if moving to player personnel is Hurney's idea so he could do what he wants. Does he have a big ego and care more about the title or what he is doing? The thought just occured that this decision if it occurs, might not be forced on Hurney but rather with his blessing. Speculation of course but it would certainly be an interesting twist. 

[Shotgun]

I'm coming around to Hurney staying, we'll get plenty of top 10 picks at least. Looks like he got us picking top 10 this year. Good job Hurney!

[45catfan]

All that data in the OP shows what intuitively I've known all along...Hurney does his best work in round one and the blind squirrel finds a nut every blue moon in rounds 2-7.  It's hard to build a 53-man roster with that kind of success rate.  As a result, he's had to back-fill rosters with FAs and that's not his strong suit (FA evaluation).  What we got then was middle-aged teams with moderate success .  For the longest time we fielded one of the oldest teams in the League.  If Hurney has always truly built the roster via the draft, why the older-aged teams?  Fact is if he hit on more of his drafts, there wouldn't be as many holes to fill in FA.  That's undeniable and we would be seeing more Shaq Thompson-like contracts and not Eric, Reid, Trey Boston, Gerald McCoy, Bruce Irvin, Ross Cockrell, Javien Elliott, Greg Van Roten, Matt Paradis, and Jarius Wright  (not including the developmental FAs littered on the roster and PS).

Draft well and re-sign your own.  That's how to build sustained success.  It's no secret, but a formula that Hurney struggles with.

[Ricky Spanish]

On 12/5/2019 at 9:52 AM, kungfoodude said:

If I was going to do another breakdown(and I might), it would probably be good to do a weighted metric. So, compare both average CarAV of the round and/or pick to our results and then determine the quality above/below the average. Also, most of Gettleman and Hurney's recent picks are going to be tougher to guage because so many are still active and those bars could move substantially. 

 

You could probably apply this to our offseason free agency moves, as well. Take a look at players we signed and use the season AV rating to see who had better success at signing impactful free agents.

 

Did a rough version of just this See below and I'll add it to the OP as well.

Below you will see the Career AV average of all the players we have drafted in the past decade by round. This is a metric developed by PFR to determine a player's value throughout their career. I will be comparing all players drafted during each other's respective seasons as a GM to keep it fair with the competition around the league. Hurney is on the left and Gettleman is on the right. Let's start with round 1:

Round 1 goes to Hurney by a landslide. Round 1 has been and always will be Hurney's bread and butter. Dude knows how to draft a stud first rounder. Gettleman is right around league average at it. I'd let Hurney pick a first rounder 10 times out of 10. 

Round 2. Jesus Christ the numbers speak for themselves in round 2. Hurney is atrocious, Gettleman is slightly above average. Boy oh Boy it's ugly though...

Round 3 for Hurney is not much better. Gettleman is still above average.

More of the same in round 4. Hurney is dildos and Gettleman is above average. 

Round 5 it's a toss up with a slight edge to Hurney due to the Josh Norman Pick. However, that one pick greatly skews the data in his favor. Removing each GM's top draft pick for round 5 drops Hurney's average to 0.5 (Norman's overall CarAV is 37) and Gettleman's drops to 4.4 (AJ Klein's CarAV is 23). Credit where it's due, Hurney found Norman in the 5th, but other than that, the players he chooses in round 5 are hot garbage.

Hurney gets the edge here for finding both Hardy and Brad Nortman in the 6th. Gettleman never found anyone worth a damn in round 6. Point Hurney, no qualifications.

Round 7 is another toss up. Hurney gets points for finding Munnerlyn, Getts had two 7th round picks he used his entire tenure here and he drafted Beau Sandland and Harrison Butker. One is a damn good kicker, the other never made the team. 

Pick your poison here. 

Finally we come to overall CarAV of players drafted during each's tenure as GM of the Panthers:

I'm going to be honest I did not see this coming. I really thought Hurney would have the edge with the all world talent he drafted with Cam and Luke, but holy crap it really is feast or famine with Hurney. Gettleman... I don't even know? I didn't think his picks were that great, but somehow his CarAV of players jumps him to the top and I honestly don't know why. I'm sure Hurney's Average will go up with Moore moving forward, probably with Burns as well if history is any indicator, but this honestly surprises me.

Either way, Hurney drafts an all pro or a dude that doesn't belong in the NFL. Gettleman drafts solid contributors throughout the draft. 

Either way, Hurney is not the best recognizer of college talent in the nation, Period, based on a deeper analytical assessment. 

[thefuzz]

1 hour ago, Cracka McNasty said:

Did a rough version of just this See below and I'll add it to the OP as well.

 

Hurney is very unsurprising, DG is very surprising.