Possible 2020 Cap Casualties

[Icege]

While we won't know about the status of Marty Hurney or Ron Rivera & company until the end of the season, we can start taking a look at some of the contracts we have next season and who might be a cap casualty. Credit goes to Spotrac for the data. The below lists all players that are under contract for 2020 and account for 1.5% or more of the salary cap.

Current 2020 Cap Space: $39.5M

Highest Risk

• Cam Newton - Let's go ahead and address the elephant in the room on this one: looking strictly at the numbers makes Cam a potential cap casualty. The team is on the hook for over $21M in 2020, and moving on from Cam would give the team $19.1M in savings with only $2M in dead cap. For a QB who's health is uncertain, this is not a difficult decision. When you factor into the equation, however, that this is the best QB the franchise has EVER had (and who has a legitimate shot at making it into the HoF some day), that decision isn't so clear. If healthy, Cam has shown the growth and progress as a passer needed to extend his career. However, if the damage has been done, can you tie up that much money if there's a question? If it were my decision, Cam Newton would be the QB of the Carolina Panthers for 2020 - 2021. How that would be achieved, idk, but I believe in Cam. That huge chunk of money would jump the team from $39.5M in free cap space to nearly $60M though.
• Greg Olsen - It's a foregone conclusion that Olsen is headed to the broadcast booth next season, but if there was any doubt, his $11.8M cap hit can be turned into $8.1M of free cap space at the cost of $3.7M in dead cap. As much as I dog on Hurney, the Olsen trade was one of the best moves he ever made as the Panthers' GM. It's been a blessing, Greg. Enjoy the next phase of your career!
• Dontari Poe - If Cam is retained, I find it difficult to believe that Poe is as well. His $13.3M cap hit can be converted into $10M of freed money and $3.333M in dead cap. Olsen and Poe's freed cap space could be what allows us to keep Cam, unless we go all in on a rebuild (pls no). He played well this year, but did he play well enough to earn $13.3M?
• Donte Moncrief - He costs $4M for some reason next season, and it costs nothing to cut him. Bye.
• Jarius Wright - Mr. Reliable is going to be a $3.6M cap hit next season, and the team can open up $3M by cutting him. I'd argue he's done more than Donte Moncrief and the veteran presence + production is well worth keeping him.

Lowest Risk

• Christian McCaffrey - He counts as more than 1.5% of the 2020 salary cap, so he's on the list regardless of how ridiculous the conversation might be. For anyone that's curious, a post 6/1 trade/cut would save the team $2.8M with $2.6M in dead cap. He still has the option year available for 2021, which I imagine the team will be jumping all over.
• Kawann Short - This is a popular name that some of the lazier armchair GMs like to throw around as being "overpaid to underperform." We'll ignore how bad our run defense looked after he went down for now and just look at the numbers. KK is going to be the second highest paid player on the roster after Cam, with a cap hit of $20.314M. If the team cuts him in 2020 or 2021, they save $14M that year. If done in 2020, the team gets to spread out $17M in dead cap over 2020 & 2021. This means that you can expect Kawann Short to be starting on the Panthers' DL again in 2020. If we wanted to cut him in 2021, spread out $10M in dead cap over 2021 & 2022. The man is going to play out his contract. Deal with it.

Gone in 2020 or 2021?

• Matt Paradis - He has not been worth the contract. Has he been as bad as some proclaim? Probably not. But whether it's Cam, Will Grier, or a QB not yet on the Panthers' roster this team needs a young pivot for the OL. Paradis is going to cost $1.8M in dead cap space the year that he's cut, whether it be for the upcoming 2020 season or the 2021 season. Cutting him now will save $7M towards the 2020 cap and cost $5.4M in dead cap for 2021. There is better value in cutting him in 2021, where we'll save $8.53M in cap space and costing the aforementiong $1.8M as well as a $3.6M ding to the 2022 cap. This would allow the team to draft a center and put them in at LG to learn before kicking in to center in 2021.
• Graham Gano - Gano will be a $4.5M cap hit in 2020, and designating him as a post 6/1 cut would free up $3M while costing $1.5M in dead cap for each the 2020 & 2021 seasons. Cutting him in 2021 when he would cost $5.2M against the cap would save $3.7M with only $1.5M in dead cap.

2021 Cap Casualties?

• Luke Kuechly - Luke's contract right now makes it nonsensical to cut him in 2020, saving $10.8M but still costing $11.8M over 2020 & 2021 in dead cap. In 2021, while his cap hit drops from $15.5M to $14.7M, designating him a post 6/1 cut would save the team $11.195M in 2021 with 3.56M in dead cap for each the 2021 & 2022 seasons. While I don't see him in danger of being cut, if there are suddenly any issues that arise over the course of the 2020 season the team has an out.
• Trai Turner - Trai is in a similar situation to Luke where the value in cutting him just doesn't match the freed cap space (as well as loss in quality of play). If the team is desperate for cap space in 2020, they could save $9M in cap space at the cost of $3.9M in 2020 and $5.7M in 2021. The team essentially has an option for a surge of money if needed, but again, I just don't see this being necessary. In 2021, making him a post 6/1 cut would take him from being a $15.4M cap hit to $3.9M in dead cap for 2021 and $1.8M in dead cap for 2022, saving $11.5M in cap space for 2021. Trai is essentially in a contract year in 2020.
• Eric Reid - Just like Luke and Trai, there is no value in cutting him from a contractual standpoint (and considering what the team is getting in Eric Reid at the price they're paying, they'd be insane to move on from him. He's one of the best safeties in the league and a high character individual). In 2021 when his cap hit is $9.55M, the team can cut him to save $7.05M and only have to float $2.5M in dead cap. Like Trai Turner, 2020 is essentially Eric Reid's contract year.

[TheSpecialJuan]

I believe Moncrief and Wright have "contract options" for 2020 that will not be picked up. 

[MHS831]

Williams is not coming back ($6m)

T. Boston?  ($2.1m)

If you are committed to a rebuild, McCoy, Irvin, Wright, Cam, Poe, Moncrief, and Gano could create a ton of cap room. 

 

 

[MHS831]

Essential Needs:

Offense (3): Center, Wide Receiver, Tight End (maybe T--I believe Little/Daley will get better; maybe QB, but the QB should be the last piece, imo.)

Defense (4) (so much depends on the scheme of the new coach): Free Safety (Boston is not the answer--a better tackler/field general), Defensive Tackle, Defensive Tackle, Cornerback (While I like Jackson, he needs to be the nickel, imo).

 

 

[Bronn]

Cam will not be a cap casualty.

He'll either be our starter, or traded at some point before the deadline.

OF THOSE YOU LISTED -

Already pretty much gone:
Moncrief
Gano

Likely gone:
Poe
Olsen

Could be gone:
Wright

Restructures:
Short
Luke

Not going anywhere anytime soon:
Cam
Paradis
Turner
CMC (lol seriously)
Reid

[Icege]

15 minutes ago, stbugs said:

If Moncrief is on the list then Mike Davis needs to be as well. Combined they have $0 dead cap for $7M in savings. They should both be gone. Between them, Greg retiring and losing the dead weight if Poe, we can get cap space to mid $60M in cap space.

$3M is less than the 1.5% threshold that I used, which I did to avoid having to breakdown DJ Moore because at that point it gets silly imo.

But yea come up off of that $3M, Mike. We trynna field a contender.

[Icege]

[Bronn]

3 minutes ago, Icege said:

My obvious hate?

Bruh, I'm one of the biggest Reid supporters on the board. Miss me with that 

My bad, I think I got you confused with someone else, and I didn't read the blurb on him in your OP.

Crow eaten, and I'll edit my post.

[ncfan]

As much as we see Poe's name thrown around.  I have a hard time seeing Poe or KK cut considering both are the only  2 DTs under contract for us next year. 

Cut 1 of them, and we need to go find 2 starter level DTs and 2 reserve level.

Cut both and you have to go find THREE starting DTs, 2 backups.  All while trying to fix the OL and other holes 

[Bronn]

1 minute ago, ncfan said:

As much as we see Poe's name thrown around.  I have a hard time seeing Poe or KK cut considering both are the only  2 DTs under contract for us next year. 

Cut 1 of them, and we need to go find 2 starter level DTs and 2 reserve level.

Cut both and you have to go find THREE starting DTs, 2 backups.  All while trying to fix the OL and other holes 

We have to cut Poe AND restructure KK. With that money, we can find several replacements.

Especially considering they are injured right now.

[Jared Patterson]

If Greg Olsen wants to play out his contract in which he would get more money than broadcasting do we keep him or cut him?

[Bronn]

2 minutes ago, Jared Patterson said:

If Greg Olsen wants to play out his contract in which he would get more money than broadcasting do we keep him or cut him?

Should have cut him this year.

Because of him, Ian Thomas had become an afterthought.

[DubE_4MR]

I would rank Poe as the #1 cap casualty. I'm still 50/50 on Cam. I know what the "insider" consensus is but I still don't see how it makes football sense.

[Icege]

 

40 minutes ago, ncfan said:

As much as we see Poe's name thrown around.  I have a hard time seeing Poe or KK cut considering both are the only  2 DTs under contract for us next year. 

Cut 1 of them, and we need to go find 2 starter level DTs and 2 reserve level.

Cut both and you have to go find THREE starting DTs, 2 backups.  All while trying to fix the OL and other holes 

Yea, I think KK is literally the only veteran DT under contract for next season. Love, McCoy, and Butler are all FAs.

Perhaps an extension that can free up some cap room?